What is Jed Lowrie?

[Dojji]

Lowrie's arm would be tough to cope with at third. But you gotta get his bat into the lineup. If the team is committed to Scutaro they really need to give Jed a look at third. The alternative is a very good defensive infielder (Lowrie's a better SS than Scutaro hands down, offensively and defensively) DHing, which is a joke.

 

For the record, concerns about Jed's arm strength are overblown. This is not Dustin Pedroia with a 10 foot heart on a 5 foot body. Pedroia's problem was that his relatively short arms just didn't allow him to get enough force on the ball to make the throw at short with the smaller margin of error at the big league level, no matter how much extra work he put into turning the throw. Jed's built more normally, and he doesn't have that problem. His arm only plays out to about average among shortstops, but that's fine and he has the ability to improve it with effort. He can make the play in the hole as well as anyone, and if Derek Jeter teaches is anything it is that people can get a bit too obsessive about throwing strength out of a shortstop anyway -- the kid can hit, has range, and his arm isn't bad enough to be an actual liability, at least not at short.

 

The bigger question for Jed at third isn't really arm strength, it's arm accuracy. The few extra feet and the more difficult angle make third base a place where you really could stand to have a strong arm so you don't have to max-effort your throws, which costs you in terms of hitting what you're aiming at from 120 feet away. The only guys who make harder throws than the third baseman consistently are your catcher and maybe your right fielder. We've been kind of spoiled by Lowell and Beltre, two of the better arms at third in the league, watching an average guy is going to look like he sucks. But there's no reason Lowrie can't play third if he has to, although the whining on every infield hit to the third baseman will reach Yankee's fan proportions regardless.

[Dipre]

Pedroia's problem was that his relatively short arms just didn't allow him to get enough force on the ball to make the throw at short with the smaller margin of error at the big league level' date=' no matter how much extra work he put into turning the throw. [/quote']

 

You just made that up. Rafael Furcal is exactly two inches taller than Pedey and he has one of the strongest arms for an infielder in baseball history. It's not a matter of size, it's a matter of mechanics and actual arm strength, which is not necessarily measured by a player's size. I understand the basis of your point, but don't pull stuff out of your magical when trying to account for the deficiencies of a player you like.

[Dojji]

Eh, fair enough, although arm length plays a role in terms of leverage. If you disagree, don't talk to me about it, talk to the guy who invented the sling. You'll probably find him buried under a lacrosse field.

[example1]

Lowrie is a good player. He is playing well this year and his versatility both offensively and defensively is a huge asset.

 

I think he will be a solid .360+ OBP guy for much of his career, which is extremely useful from the SS position.

[Dojji]

I wanna go back and clarify what I was talking about vis-a-vis arm length since Dipre's response made it clear that I didn't communicate it well.

 

First of all, I'm not disparaging Pedroia in the slightest. Dude works about as hard as it's possible to work. That said, the limitations of the body apply no matter how hard you work. He probably developed his arm about as far as he possibly could to try to stick at SS, but without longer arms there's a certain leverage you just don't have no matter how good your technique is.

 

As a SS Pedroia could probably make every play at shortstop that, say, Derek Jeter, another shortstop with an unspectacular arm, could make. He won't make the really tough plays Jeter never made. The twofold issue with Pedroia at SS is lack of leverage to really muscle up on a throw, and the resulting fact that he'd have to max-effort every throw from the hole. These factors combine to make SS not only a performance issue for Pedey, but also possibly a health one. He's at 2B not because he couldn't play SS if he had to but because what he has to do to make up for that lack of leverage and get good pop on a throw from the hole would put a little extra stress on his ligaments that isn't a factor at second.

 

With Lowrie, this is less of an issue, because he isn't the pint-sized powerhouse Pedroia is. His body is of pretty much normal proportions for an athlete, and his arm is not only better than Pedroia's, but capable of improving to a higher level without heightened risk of injury, if he's prepared to develop his technique. He's never exactly going to have the arm of an Alex Gonzalez, but he has the ability to show an average or better shortstop arm without messing up his shoulder in the process, unlike Pedroia, which is one of the reasons why Pedroia was very quickly shifted to second and the Sox are looking at Lowrie very seriously as a potential shortstop. One of a number of reasons, of course, but certainly one.

 

If you have to move Lowrie to second down the line he's certainly proven he's comfortable there, but that doesn't mean you rule him out at short, since he's proven over time that he's comfortable there too. It's no secret that I like the kid, and his versatility and willingness to play multiple roles on the team is a big part of the reason why.

[Dipre]

Derek Jeter has a great arm, as per every scouting report and from watching him play. Dunno where this one came from. In fact, it's his arm that's allowed him to masquerade his range deficiencies for all this years.

 

Size is not a really important factor in arm strength. Erick Aybar, Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal are all smaller guys with cannon arms. Marco Scutaro, Jason Bartlett, Stephen Drew are all bigger-framed guys who rely on release quickness because their arm is not so strong.

 

Jed Lowrie's arm strength is being criminally undermined here. Every scouting publication i've read says he has "a (insert strong, above average, upper-mid tier) arm but is very erratic in his throws". The reason Lowrie shouldn't play 3B isn't because of his arm, since that's just a cheap excuse, it's because he doesn't offer the production of a corner IF.

[rician blast]

Does Jed Lowrie = a David Eckstein?

[yeszir]

Does Jed Lowrie = a David Eckstein?

 

Hey man, welcome back.

[Dojji]

The reason Lowrie shouldn't play 3B isn't because of his arm' date=' since that's just a cheap excuse, it's because he doesn't offer the production of a corner IF.[/quote']

 

He's making a good bid to contradict you this year, Dipre. I'm thinking that a low .800 OPS hitter isn't that hard to project from the kid based on what we've seen. It's optimistic, sure, but when you look around the league at what people have at third base, a switch-hitting .800 OPS 12-15 HR guy really isn't that far off the mark, and if he fields well he'd actually be well above the league mean at third. Not an ideal solution, but better than it looks at first glance.

 

Basically, third basemen of the kind we think of when we thinik "this guy is a thrid baseman" have been hard as crap to find for awhile for whatever reason. I wouldn't mind keeping Beltre if it's possible to do so but if not, Lowrie, while he probably wouldn't replace all of Beltre's production, has a very good shot at being able to not make 3B an outright liability and quite possibly even turn in well above average production. And there's that little niggling thing in the back of my head that reminds me that Lowrie was, at one time, as highly regarded as Pedroia and could still prove the scouts who thought that right.

 

Of course, the ideal solution is to mix Lowrie and Scutaro next year at short, throw the $5M contract out the window as a consideration and favor the guy who's producing, and keep Beltre around. I have no doubt in my mind that if allowed to do so, Lowrie will beat Scutaro out for the fill-time shortstop job. I'm just saying that if that ain't happening, Lowrie would be in the upper middle tier of 3B or so, as the 3B position is pretty shallow other than a couple headline guys and has been for awhile.

[Palodios]

Jed Lowrie has 7 HR in 150 at bats despite taking the last two full years off. I think he can hit a lot more than 12-15 per year. I know it isn't one of his prospected skills, but he's definitely proving it right now.

[Dojji]

I get accused of being overoptimistic when I project a guy like Lowrie for 20 HR's. I was just trying to head off that paticular bitchfest fron a certain quarter. 15 HR from third isn't terrible anyway. We think of it as a corner infield position, but it's definitely not first base where you need a big bat to win. I mean heck, Bill Mueller wasn't exactly Albert Pujols. never hit 20 HR in a year in his life in fact. And we still remember him sort of fondly.

[Palodios]

Yeah, I can understand that. Just keep in mind-- Its a lot easier to back up your projections for a player when he has performed at the major league level rather than in AA or AAA. Other posters here will be much more likely to agree with you when prospects have faced real competition.

[Dojji]

Oh sure, but I trust my reads on guys until given a reason not to. I've held the course on Lowrie for years, as a potential .850 OPS 15 HR guy, I'm not about to buck that just because things start looking good for once. I'd like to welcome some of you guys back to the bandwagon though.

[Palodios]

I had Jed Lowrie as my starting shortstop in two fantasy leagues in 2009 because I thought he was going to be sleeper hit after struggling with the wrist injury in 2008, but if he can't play, he can't perform. It seems like everyone around here agrees with me-- he'd be a great hitter if only he could stay healthy.

[Dojji]

The thing about all the time Lowrie missed is that it wasn't all because of any one thing. The wrist complications were only part of the story and that part was over midseason last year. Mono is not an injury, so he's actually been injury-free for more than a year now. This isn't a video game where a player can't buck his Health Rating, and Lowrie is entering his physical prime, the period of his life where he's probably the least likely to sustain a major injury.

 

Since what killed his season last year was a wrist injury that is now gone, and this year he seems healthy other than a bout with Mono, I do think the people concerned about health are overselling the nature of the problem.

[Dipre]

I get accused of being overoptimistic when I project a guy like Lowrie for 20 HR's. I was just trying to head off that paticular bitchfest fron a certain quarter. 15 HR from third isn't terrible anyway. We think of it as a corner infield position' date=' but it's definitely not first base where you need a big bat to win. I mean heck, Bill Mueller wasn't exactly Albert Pujols. never hit 20 HR in a year in his life in fact. And we still remember him sort of fondly.[/quote']

 

That's because you are over-optimistic. If healthy, Lowrie can be an average/above-average overall producer at 3B, but upper-mid tier? Come on. Keep in mind we're looking at the whole package, not just offense.

[Palodios]

Casey Blake is 16th(ie, dead middle) in the league for OPS at 3B, with .720. In his last three injury-ridden seasons, Lowrie has averaged .744. I don't think its over-optimistic to believe Lowrie will seriously outperform that kind of production. His arm might be lacking at third, but he is fairly talented defensively as it is.

[rician blast]

Hey man' date=' welcome back.[/quote']

 

Thanks.

[Dipre]

Casey Blake is 16th(ie' date=' dead middle) in the league for OPS at 3B, with .720. In his last three injury-ridden seasons, Lowrie has averaged .744. I don't think its over-optimistic to believe Lowrie will seriously outperform that kind of production. His arm might be lacking at third, but he is fairly talented defensively as it is.[/quote']

 

You're not talking about smack in the middle, because that would be "average" not "almost elite" since that's what "upper-mid tier" really means. By that definition, you're talking about the guys right below the top six or seven performers at a specific position.

 

Now, this was a fluky year for ML 3B because of a number of injuries and s***** luck at the position, but do you really think Lowrie at 3B would outperform guys like Mark Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez and Michael Young? 'cause i don't.

 

No need to defend the guy because i'm calling him what he is: A Middle Infielder. Having him play 3B on the team when the offense might have to be improved if Beltre/V-Mart (or both) walk would be hurting the team. In said scenario, you try to improve the team by getting a big stick at 1st and move Youk to 3rd. Besides, consider me not being sold on:

A) Lowrie staying healthy for a whole season (with reason) B ) Him sustaining his current level of production as an everyday player, and i'd rather not try to find out at the expense of theoretically costing the team wins.

[Palodios]

You said Lowrie would be average/above average. Above average 3B this year are from .750 OPS to .800 OPS and the top tier is from .800 to .920, although most of those guys are close to .850. Based on the samples we have, I don't think its unreasonable to believe Lowrie can't stay around low .800s considering that he's still a young guy who has been playing through injuries. Mark Reynolds is .818 for his career-- Young is .790, and Aramis is .838.

 

Lowrie's stat line has suffered badly from his wrist injury, and its pretty clear if you look at befores/afters for the 2008 season, but he still has a .740 OPS. I don't believe he's going to stay healthy... but if this team needs to make a sacrifice at one position, which duo would you rather see starting-- Lowrie+Crawford or Beltre+Cameron?

[Dipre]

You said Lowrie would be average/above average. Above average 3B this year are from .750 OPS to .800 OPS and the top tier is from .800 to .920, although most of those guys are close to .850. Based on the samples we have, I don't think its unreasonable to believe Lowrie can't stay around low .800s considering that he's still a young guy who has been playing through injuries. Mark Reynolds is .818 for his career-- Young is .790, and Aramis is .838.

 

Lowrie's stat line has suffered badly from his wrist injury, and its pretty clear if you look at befores/afters for the 2008 season, but he still has a .740 OPS. I don't believe he's going to stay healthy... but if this team needs to make a sacrifice at one position, which duo would you rather see starting-- Lowrie+Crawford or Beltre+Cameron?

 

Neither option.

 

The Sox have enough money coming off the books to keep both Beltre and V-Mart and sign an OF while fixing the bullpen and possibly retain Ortiz depending on how many bullpen pieces they are able to acquire through trade or fix internally/for the league minimum.

 

They should retain Hall, and have him and Lowrie as super-subs, because as this season has shown us, injuries can quickly decimate a team, and "depth" is the name of the game, and to me, Lowrie is the best kind of depth, but he shouldn't be handed a starting position when questions about both his health and production over a season exist.

 

For the record, i don't think Lowrie's and .800 OPS guy, which is why i made the prior comparison, he has the On-Base skills, but the power he's shown this season in limited time is flukey. I don't think that, over a full season, he'd be able to maintain the mid-400 SLG% necessary to keep his OPS over .800. I think my stance makes sense on the basis that it's a two-fold benefit from and for Lowrie, since it avoids him getting exposed, thus maintaining his numbers, and keeps him fresh and healthy, which is the most important part.

[Dojji]

If Lowrie and Scutaro are both on the team, Lowrie should be the starting shortstop until he proves he isn't better than scutaro. Nothing against Scutaro, but his calling card is as a low-risk guy who definitely won't kill you but is only an average shortstop in all facets of the game. Lowrie has at least the potential to do better than that both offensively and defensively and has demonstrated that he's close enough to realizing that potential to deserve a string of consecutive starts next year to see if he can stand up to them or not. If not, then slip him back into the sub role. But don't banish him there without a good long chance to make the starting job his own. That would be ridiculous with only Scutaro to play instead -- even assuming Scoot is healthy next year, we know exactly what we'll get from him and it's good not great. And he'll be there to stabilize things if Lowrie falters anyway, so there's very little to lose.

[Palodios]

 

For the record, i don't think Lowrie's and .800 OPS guy, which is why i made the prior comparison, he has the On-Base skills, but the power he's shown this season in limited time is flukey. I don't think that, over a full season, he'd be able to maintain the mid-400 SLG% necessary to keep his OPS over .800. I think my stance makes sense on the basis that it's a two-fold benefit from and for Lowrie, since it avoids him getting exposed, thus maintaining his numbers, and keeps him fresh and healthy, which is the most important part.

 

I don't honestly think the Red Sox have that much money available. Its going to be 40-50/year to sign Vmart/Beltre/ an elite outfielder. Plus 10-20 to fix the bullpen, unless they trade Papelbon.

 

As far as Lowrie-- his very first season in the majors, he fluctuated between .770 and .870 for most of the season until his wrist injury. In 2009 he was crushing the ball in ST before being sidelined. In 2010, he has a .877 OPS despite being hurt for two full seasons prior. Considering he's still young and considering his bumps in the road and that he's played only around one full season-- he definitely has a lot of room to improve. I don't see any reason why .800 would be out of the question, in the highly hypothetical situation where he stays healthy.

[a700hitter]

I don't honestly think the Red Sox have that much money available. Its going to be 40-50/year to sign Vmart/Beltre/ an elite outfielder. Plus 10-20 to fix the bullpen' date=' unless they trade Papelbon.[/quote']They have the money. It's just a question of whether they want to spend it. If Tampa dismantles itself, the Sox will be able to overtake them by spending less. I don't think Tampa will go into rebuilding mode and I think the FO views third place as unacceptable, so we will see some spending.

[Dojji]

All Lowrie has to do to deserve the starting SS is maintain an OPS north of .716. His injury-riddled career numbers are still north of that. even if he's exposed and nursing an injury, I would still expect Lowrie to be a better offensive player than Scutaro, and if he's healthy there's just no comparison at all. Especially because Scoot is only an average player defensively too.

 

Not that I mind having Marco around, he's respectable and he's brought stability to a troubled position for the team, but Scutaro isn't that great, his selling point was stability to a franchise that needed it badly at the time, and he's provided that at least. But every sample Lowrie's put up at SS is better than Scutaro's best defensively, and offensively it's really no contest. There's no risk in giving him a shot because we still have Joe Consistent on the payroll if he can't hack it, so we owe it to ourselves to find out one way or the other whether the kid can sustain his numbers.

[Palodios]

They're spending 100 million on 2011 as of now, 116 with Ellsbury/Papelbon. They had a huge decrease in fanfare this year, and have concerns about losing their sellout record-- which once gone, is probably not coming back until the next championship run, or a decrease in ticket prices. Sure they might have the money for three massive contracts, but I seriously doubt it.

[a700hitter]

All Lowrie has to do to deserve the starting SS is maintain an OPS north of .716. His injury-riddled career numbers are still north of that. even if he's exposed and nursing an injury, I would still expect Lowrie to be a better offensive player than Scutaro, and if he's healthy there's just no comparison at all. Especially because Scoot is only an average player defensively too.

 

Not that I mind having Marco around, he's respectable and he's brought stability to a troubled position for the team, but Scutaro isn't that great, his selling point was stability to a franchise that needed it badly at the time, and he's provided that at least. But every sample Lowrie's put up at SS is better than Scutaro's best defensively, and offensively it's really no contest. There's no risk in giving him a shot because we still have Joe Consistent on the payroll if he can't hack it, so we owe it to ourselves to find out one way or the other whether the kid can sustain his numbers.

It's possible that Lowrie could hit his way into a starting role, but that will not happen until after the season starts.

[Dojji]

The party's going to end at some point moneywise. Boston is only about 12th or so in overall market size and are somewhere just outside the top 5 in capitalization. The Sox have done a great job getting the fans out and whipping up interest in the team over the years, but Boston can't run neck and neck with NY indefinitely. We've had a great 8 year run, but let's not pretend that it's always going to be this way. This town can in no way sustain a team that is expensive and also bad, like NYY can.

[Dojji]

It's possible that Lowrie could hit his way into a starting role' date=' but that will not happen until after the season starts.[/quote']

 

Of course the X-factor no one's talking about is Scutaro's health. A back injury is a scary thing.

[a700hitter]

Of course the X-factor no one's talking about is Scutaro's health. A back injury is a scary thing.

At the end of the season, it was his shoulder that was the bigger problem.