The Bullpen Thread

[Palodios]

There is a lot of money, but they still need to replace their 4, 5 and 6 hitters -- especially considered that they skimped a lot this year and ended up getting lucky. Considering that two of the best FA bats are going to be OF, I wouldn't be surprised if they dedicated money there also, even though they need help in other positions.

 

If I had to choose between Papelbon with Okajima or Downs with Putz, I think its an obvious choice. You also have to understand that if Papelbon starts to really underperform, and they want Bard to close, he will tear apart that clubhouse.

[Dojji]

That's a false dichotomy, so I won't address it.

 

This team has more than enough money coming off the books between Lowell, Beltre, V-Mart, Ortiz, Hall, and a few other incidental contracts that I'm not worried about their ability to improve either the lineup or the pen.

 

Our rotation is set and that's a big plus for the offseason, that tends to be a big worry spot for most teams and it's a worry we just don't have going forward. At least three of Buchholz, Lester, Daisuke, Beckett and Lackey should be effective in any given year and that's what we need. Pick up Dunn and one corner IF bat and we should be good to go.

[Palodios]

I understand they are going to be freeing up 50 million, but do you really think they'll want to put all that money back out in one year? The guys they need to replace are crucial parts of this offense-- do you remember what this team was like without Vmart at catcher the last few weeks?

 

If they trade for a big 1B, that's 20-25 million a year right there. 15 million a year for Werth/Crawford, 15 million more for quality bullpen help and a bench, plus more money for catcher. All the best options are going to be expensive, and paying 15 million dollars a year for a closer that is quickly becoming mediocre, and WILL be a pain in the ass if things don't go his way makes no sense to me.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, anytime money is freed up you need to see how they are going to invest it.

 

The sox have a solid farm system, but a lot of their talent is in the lower levels, meaning they might not have enough to pry away a Prince Fielder or an Adrian Gonzalez. So a trade to bolster the middle of the lineup seems out unless they agree to some serious salary dump.

 

That leaves the FA market. Their OF is under contract next yr, but that wont stop the sox from going after a Jason Werth, who I think would be perfect for Fenway, and he's a Yankee killer to boot.

 

Then you have to look at your lineup. If you resign VMart, you are talking about a higher salary than he has now. If you resign Ortiz, you're probably looking at a lower salary, so resigning those guys would cancel each other out. Signing Werth would eliminate the Lowell money plus a bit of the Beltre money as I think Werth is gonna see about $15 million a yr on the open market. Overall, I think the sox are gonna hold pat or shed some payroll at the end of the season since the markets all seem a bit down nowadays. Then you have to think about 3b, which looks pretty thin after Beltre on the market. I think a very real possibility is Lowrie at 3b as a stopgap to a trade or a FA signing in 2012. That leaves a lineup of....

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Youkilis 1B

4. Ortiz DH

5. Werth LF

6. Martinez C

7. Drew RF

8. Scutaro SS

9. Lowrie 3B

 

That isnt bad and would be cheaper than the offensive players this season due to Lowell's expiring contract and Beltre's departure

[Palodios]

I almost agree with you, but Lowrie will not be a starting player next year. Until he can last a year healthy AND productively, he's a huge risk for them. He's great as a utility player for them, so he'll have that role for a while. There enough cheap options at 1st that they'll sacrifice the defense for runs, as usual.

[Dojji]

I've wondered for awhile how Brandon Inge would do with the Monster to aim for. He may be a good gamble to repeat the Beltre Effect, as his game is limited by many of the same factors that hurt Beltre in Seattle.

[Will617]

I think most of the relievers in that list (Downs, Fuentes, Putz, etc) are type A. Theo doesn't strike me as the type to go for big-name relievers from other organizations anymore; he hasn't lately, after getting burned by Gagne and Foulke.

Does Lowrie have the arm to play third? His arm never struck me as particularly good.

[redsoxrules]

Papelbon's BB/9 has been around 3 the past two years' date=' after sitting at around 2 his first three years. He's been the beneficiary of a ridiculous HR/FB ratio last year (last year 52.2% of all balls in play were fly balls, but only 5% of those went for HRs), and the beneficiary of a ridiculous BABIP this year. The problem is that he wants to be paid like an elite closer, but his numbers the past two seasons suggest that he's not that far off from becoming a 4.0 ERA reliever. Of course, 100 innings isn't a perfect sample size, but it does suggest something is wrong - his fastball has only been about 0.6 runs above average per 100 pitches, compared to 1.5 last year, 2.2 the year before, and 3+ past years - suggesting that batters are sitting more on his fastball. Meanwhile, his slider and splitter have been terrific this season - maybe it's just a matter of approach, but Paps better change it fast, if he wants to be paid like an elite closer.[/quote']

 

very well said .... Papelbon has been very lucky that his number are not worse than they are this year .

 

he's no where near worth 15 MIL a year . not even 10

[Dojji]

Does Lowrie have the arm to play third? His arm never struck me as particularly good.

 

He can get by there but he isn't great, infield hits will happen if he's our 3B

 

If we have to have Scutaro and Lowrie both in the field I'd rather play Scutaro at 3B.

[redsoxrules]

He can get by there but he isn't great, infield hits will happen if he's our 3B

 

If we have to have Scutaro and Lowrie both in the field I'd rather play Scutaro at 3B.

 

I dont think you give Scutaro enough credit , He's been actually very darn good at SS so far this year on defense .

 

IMO he's top 3 in AL in defense at SS

[Dojji]

It's not about how great Scoot is at SS, it's about how bad Lowrie is at third. Having the best possible SS is important, but so is third base, and Scutaro playing there is worlds better than Jed.

 

Lowrie can get by or better at SS, in fact his SSS UZR/150 from back before the injury was very, very good, and Scutaro can fill the gap at third base way better than Lowrie can.

[Spudboy]

very well said .... Papelbon has been very lucky that his number are not worse than they are this year .

 

he's no where near worth 15 MIL a year . not even 10

 

Doesn't he make over $9. mil. now?

[Spudboy]

It's not about how great Scoot is at SS, it's about how bad Lowrie is at third. Having the best possible SS is important, but so is third base, and Scutaro playing there is worlds better than Jed.

 

Lowrie can get by or better at SS, in fact his SSS UZR/150 from back before the injury was very, very good, and Scutaro can fill the gap at third base way better than Lowrie can.

 

Lowrie is a SS and Scutaro is a 2nd baseman.

 

Has Scutaro ever played 3rd?

 

And Scutaro has a weak arm (strength).

[CoachC.]

Doesn't he make over $9. mil. now?

 

He's making $9.35 mil this year

[Will617]

Realistically this offseason Adrian Gonzalez is off the table, Miguel Cabrera as well (there had been some rumors prior to this season). Avaliable 1B would be Fielder (trade) and Dunn at the top levels, and Lee, Konerko, or Carlos Pena as second tier options - or the option to convert someone like Werth to 1B (always a possibility). I think our OF is set given we have our 3 starters for next year (assuming Beltre doesn't destroy Ellsbury's ribs again, and surgery goes well for Cameron).

I don't see Beltre staying, so the team would need a 1B/3B. I think V-Mart stays, which would mean about $10 mil off the table. I also feel like Ortiz gets another year for around $10 mil (probably more like 7-8 mil). Another 1B would cost at least $10 mil, which should leave plenty to address the bullpen - though how they address it is another question.

Keep in mind Pujols is a free agent after next year and will probably command $30 mil or so. And I can't see the Sox making no attempt to get him.

[Palodios]

I don't think A-gon is completely off the table next offseason. The Sox seem very willing to get rid of Ellsbury after a lot of issues involving his misdiagnosis and this whole season, so I can definitely see him headlining a trade, and the price for Gonzalez is only going to go down as he nears free agency.

[Will617]

I'm not sure whether AGon gets any play this offseason. Given how the Padres have performed, it seems like even if they don't make the playoffs this year they'd be liable to keep him until the deadline next year (unless they fall out fast) to see how it goes. Jed Hoyer also knows our system, so he's not going to make a trade unless he gets a big haul of players he knows are good.

[Palodios]

The Sox would have to overpay, but it would probably be worth it. Ellsbury, Lars, Doubront and one more might be able to get the deal done.

[Dojji]

If the Padres make the playoffs forget about Adgon.

[Palodios]

I think they need to atleast get to the second round of the playoffs before he becomes untouchable. Even they have to be predicting a fair bit of regression next year, plus the NL West is a surprisingly tough division these days.

[msubulldogs21]

If the Padres make the playoffs forget about Adgon.

 

They're going to have to trade the man at some point next season, whether that be the off-season or at the deadline.

 

They didn't get rid of him this year because they simply couldn't given how good their team is. Same with Heath Bell's situation.

[example1]

Yeah, I think San Diego will be entertaining offers this off-season. Gonzalez is a natural fit for the Red Sox: they have a deep system that is virtually untouched in 12 months and they have a need for a masher in his prime. They may need to get that player one way or another next off-season, so if Boston overpays but says they won't be offering at the trade deadline, I imagine Jed Hoyer would at least listen. If Hoyer is like Theo then we can expect him to always have an ear open for offers if losing the player is inevitable.

 

I agree with Palodios; Ellsbury, Lars and Doubront plus one (Reddick?, Nava?, Fife? Weiland?) would be a really solid place to start for the Sox.

[Will617]

The Padres aren't going to settle for Gonzalez. I don't think any deal happens without Casey Kelly (as Doubront projects to be a middle-of-the-rotation type at best), and I don't think Ellsbury gets the Sox as far as you think he does - after all, he's hitting his arbitration years, and the Padres are a cash strapped team, and Ellsbury's agent is Boras - so no long-term club-friendly deal. In fact, I think the Padres would prefer Kalish. Keep in mind that Jed Hoyer knows the Red Sox system inside and out, so we can't foist lesser prospects on him, and Lars Anderson's stock has not been really high as of late.

TL;DR version: I think it'll take at least Kelly, Kalish, Lars, and another top prospect to get the deal done. There is no way we leave the deal without losing just one of our high-ceiling prospects that have a decent shot at the majors (and Lars' ceiling is arguable given his performance this season).

[jacksonianmarch]

The Pads are gonna be in a very enviable situation. They can play the "contenders" card and use it to drive up the price. If they dont deal him, then they can take 1 last shot at the NL West before taking the picks when he leaves via FA. SD is gonna want MLB ready talent regardless. Their pitching is good in that division which means a lot of their needs will be offensive. Instead of Kelly, my guess is that Iglesias, Kalish, Anderson, and Reddick would probably be the package.

 

I will tell you this much, though. Even in a short sample size, I think this Kalish kid turns into a good ballplayer. Reddick came up like a deer in headlights. Kalish is coming out like Ricky Vaughn. Everyone else be damned. I wouldnt deal him.

[Palodios]

The Padres aren't going to settle for Gonzalez.

 

Ellsbury may be part of a 3 team trade-- he doesn't necessarily go to the Padres. I don't agree how Lars's ceiling is arguable-- he is a very streaky player, and he's shown that in AAA this year.

 

Compare the haul's for other top players at a position, like Cliff Lee, Halladay, even Nomar, Martinez or Santana. Santana's deal seems to most relevant-- based on a prospect ranking, they gave up organizational #s 1, 5, 6, and 10-- sounds about like what I've been projecting, although I may value certain players more than others.

[jacksonianmarch]

Justin Smoak was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. The sox currently dont have one of those.

 

Halladay got the Jays Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek, both top 20-30 or so prospects. Santana's deal was stupid and I doubt Jed Hoyer is that dumb. And Martinez got the Guardians a guy who looked like a solid pitching prospect in Masterson, a safe back of the rotation guy in price, and a high upside lefty arm in Hagadone.

 

Regardless, NONE of those teams had the leverage that SD has. Their leverage is that they are a playoff contender WITH Gonzalez. So they are gonna request a lot more as well as some MLB ready talent in return.

 

In terms of Anderson, he may be streaky, but thus far, he hasnt had any sustained success at AAA in 2 tries. I still think he will eventually figure it out, but it has to have hurt his trade stock

[ORS]

One, this is Anderson's first year in AAA. Two, he, like Montero, took a couple of months to figure things out at that level, but has put up an ~.850 OPS since July 1. Try to retain some factual accuracy.

[jacksonianmarch]

One' date=' this is Anderson's first year in AAA. Two, he, like Montero, took a couple of months to figure things out at that level, but has put up an ~.850 OPS since July 1. Try to retain some factual accuracy.[/quote']

 

Whoops, sorry, it was AA he had trouble with.

[Palodios]

Ellsbury was the Sox #1 prospect at a time... and then he actually turned into what prospects are supposed to turn into-- a good player. Prospects might work out, but they might not. Smoak's value went way down before he got to Seattle. He's hitting .159 in Seattle-- top prospect potential I know. That's why its always better to go with a sure thing. Or, Ellsbury can go to another team for more prospects, whatever.

 

And leverage really doesn't have much to do with it. Teams know when the ship is going down, and they must know their pitching staff won't all have career years again. Plus, the Giants/Dodgers/Rockies are not going to make it easy for them. Plus, most of the big market teams already have a great first baseman, so there aren't as many buyers as one might expect. If they think they'd rather have a first round draft pick than a package, then they can take it.

 

And Lars has only been to AAA once. His July was a great sign, and I think its just a matter of time. But if Hoyer wants Rizzo instead, they can have him. Two years of A-gon gave the Padres a window, but eventually they'll need to get what they can.

[Rdsxmbnt]

If Ellsbury returns and proves he's back to normal with hitting and fielding, his value will skyrocket. He's entering his prime and under control for the next 3-4 years. .301/.355/.415/.770 CF's who steal 70 bases and play above average defense don't exactly grow on trees. Plus if you look at his career thus far, he's getting better and could be a .800 OPS guy very soon. Would have to get a huge haul to trade him IMO.