The Bullpen Thread

[RWTP24]

I am pretty bummed the Sox did not jump all over Scott Podsednik. He is way better than Hermida and Patterson. I hope Theo can find a decent OFer.

 

 

With that being sad, do any of you guys think the Sox really need a good OFer before the trade deadline?

[Palodios]

I am pretty bummed the Sox did not jump all over Scott Podsednik. He is way better than Hermida and Patterson. I hope Theo can find a decent OFer.

 

 

With that being sad, do any of you guys think the Sox really need a good OFer before the trade deadline?

 

Haha, you're having a rough night. This is the bullpen thread, not the trade deadline thread.

[Palodios]

I want to hear opinions on trading Ramon Ramirez. As I pointed out earlier, his stat sheet looks like this--

 

April 6.75, May 4.82, June 3.18 July 3.27

 

In a struggling bullpen, why drop him and keep MDC and Okajima? I don't care if those guys are home-grown and they're worth a lot less-- why are they still here?

[jacksonianmarch]

They tried to deal away Delcarmen, but couldnt find anyone willing to give them anything of value. And to think, the sox were offered Willingham last yr for him and they turned it down

[Station 13]

I want to hear opinions on trading Ramon Ramirez. As I pointed out earlier, his stat sheet looks like this--

 

April 6.75, May 4.82, June 3.18 July 3.27

 

In a struggling bullpen, why drop him and keep MDC and Okajima? I don't care if those guys are home-grown and they're worth a lot less-- why are they still here?

 

Both were on the block nobody wanted them. Okajima likely non tendered at the end of the season anyway.

[Palodios]

Maybe you misunderstand my question. They got practically nothing for RR, so if they're going to just get rid of guys underperforming, why not drop them?

[jacksonianmarch]

Pal, I do agree. It doesnt make a lot of sense. Ramirez was a problem, but Oki and Delcarmen have been worse. You'd figure they'd get rid of one of them before just handing away a guy who has improved monthly since April

[BSN07]

Ramirez was the one I was hoping they would keep.

[example1]

I always liked Ramirez too. The way Theo described the deal, it's another longterm move. Turpen is a side armish righty with some upside, but may have the ability to be this team's 4th or 5th option out of the pen for the next few years. I think of a role similar to that of Chad Bradford. Bring in a guy with funkiness to his delivery and hope to turn conventional platoons and matchups on their head. It's a useful role to be played.

 

Ramirez is an impressive arm though. To me he just looked like he tired from about 2/3 of the way through the season last year thru this year. When they first got him I thought he had a chance to be a very good reliever, but his arm just looks tired.

 

My initial impression is that the Sox are giving up the better player, but when age, retention and long term needs are taken into account I can see this working out for the Sox.

[Will617]

How much longer does Papelbon stay with the Sox? This season has been a disaster for him, I didn't think that I'd get on the "get rid of Papelbon" bandwagon but I feel like I'm inching closer. His advanced metrics have been inching down each year and this year, especially, has looked troubling.

[Dojji]

One mediocre season isn't enough to make me throw Paps under the bus. He needs to show that he can make some adjustments though. That's one of the things that allows dominant pitchers to stay effective as they get older. Right now he's still trying to throw it by people. He needs to move to the next phase of a pitcher's career where he learns to pitch smart, as well as hard. If he can't, and it's obvious by the time FA comes along, he needs to go.

 

At the moment though, he's still a very strong pitcher statistically even if he isn't as great as he used to be . 153 ERA+ doesn't grow on trees. I think fans need to adjust their expectations with Paps too. As he settles into a career, he's not always going to be brilliantly unstoppably awesome, sometimes he's just going to be really good, and we need to look at that and not have our expectations so out of whack that we call that "awful.'

[BSN07]

He's gone this off season... IMO of course.

[Dojji]

The return had better be stupendous, he's still better than all but a handful of the league's closers.

[Palodios]

I don't think this bullpen could survive losing papelbon, unless they overpay for RP in the offseason.

[example1]

The return had better be stupendous' date=' he's still better than all but a handful of the league's closers.[/quote']

 

Yeah, except that Bard is a more dominant pitcher right now and appears to be toying with people on the mound. His FB-Slider combo is devistating. For a few games he was throwing a changeup too, which is just unfair.

 

There's a lot of talk about the Sox looking to move Ellsbury this off-season, and I think Papelbon might be right there with him. That should come to be expected from the "hold out till FA" class of prospects moving forward.

 

I like the idea of moving both if it helps them get the pieces they need moving forward.

[Dojji]

Yeah, except that Bard is a more dominant pitcher right now and appears to be toying with people on the mound. His FB-Slider combo is devistating. For a few games he was throwing a changeup too, which is just unfair.

 

you're allowed to have more than one quality reliever you know. Just because Bard's the better pitcher doesn't necessarily mean Papelbon's a waste of the closer's spot, although it sometimes seems that way when Paps blows one.

 

Bear in mind that Bard will have his share of rotten days and weaker than usual years too. I wouldn't make a call like that based on one year if it can be avoided -- and it can.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I really like the Bard set-up and Papelbon closer situation anyway. Tito would never go for the relief ace (IE using your best MR pitcher at the most important time of the game whether it's the 9th or not), but since Bard is the best MR but Papelbon is the established closer, we can use Bard in any situation.

[example1]

you're allowed to have more than one quality reliever you know. Just because Bard's the better pitcher doesn't necessarily mean Papelbon's a waste of the closer's spot, although it sometimes seems that way when Paps blows one.

 

Bear in mind that Bard will have his share of rotten days and weaker than usual years too. I wouldn't make a call like that based on one year if it can be avoided -- and it can.

 

The question isn't whether Papelbon is a valuable reliever for this team. He is. The question is how much they could get for him if they dealt him now. As a good closer on a team that has another closing candidate already, and a certain Type A free agent, he is worth something, probably very good minor league talent. That could then be swung in another deal, or could be developed with a bunch of other talent onto the big club.

[Dojji]

Meh. I happen to think that having 2 great relief talents on a team is a situation that should be cultivated.

 

If we're in the same position next deadline as we are now, you look into what you can get for Paps, but the return had better be good.

[example1]

I think we can agree that this FO is not the type to trade away Papelbon (or any good player) for a poor return. I'm assuming that if he is traded--whenever that may be--the return will be good.

[jacksonianmarch]

One thing is for sure, this is gonna be quite an offseason. Papelbon is a unique situation. He wants to test the market, and if you look at the big markets, most have elite closers. NYY with Rivera, NYM with KRod, LAD with Broxton, etc. Chicago will probably be rebuilding. The only team that I think would be a match is LAA. And a Paps deal very well could be about money. Paps is gonna ask for Rivera money in arbitration, the sox might think that $15 million is better allocated elsewhere and will get 75 cents on the dollar in moving him. One thing is for sure, it will not be as big of a market as the sox would have hoped, and they might be better off just to pay him for one more yr, offer him arb after 2011 and take the two picks when he signs a 3 yr 45 mil contract.

 

The only thing Theo might be looking at is the possibility that Papelbon regresses for a third straight yr. At that point, his salary and trade value wont match

[Palodios]

Paps is gonna ask for Rivera money in arbitration

 

He wants Rivera money, but everyone knows he's no Rivera. He's much closer to that other group, and all those other guys make anywhere from 4 to 12 mill. Honestly, I think their money is much better spent on buying two 5 million dollar setup guys for Bard than giving Papelbon the 10.

[Dojji]

Because we're so poor.

[jacksonianmarch]

Because we're so poor.

 

No, the sox arent poor. But Theo is all about value and is 70IP of Papelbon, especially the one who is wearing the jersey this season, worth $15 million?

[Dojji]

That's based on the assumption that we can replace anywhere near that level of production for significant savings. The FA RP market is way too volatile to call that a given.

[Will617]

Papelbon's BB/9 has been around 3 the past two years, after sitting at around 2 his first three years. He's been the beneficiary of a ridiculous HR/FB ratio last year (last year 52.2% of all balls in play were fly balls, but only 5% of those went for HRs), and the beneficiary of a ridiculous BABIP this year. The problem is that he wants to be paid like an elite closer, but his numbers the past two seasons suggest that he's not that far off from becoming a 4.0 ERA reliever. Of course, 100 innings isn't a perfect sample size, but it does suggest something is wrong - his fastball has only been about 0.6 runs above average per 100 pitches, compared to 1.5 last year, 2.2 the year before, and 3+ past years - suggesting that batters are sitting more on his fastball. Meanwhile, his slider and splitter have been terrific this season - maybe it's just a matter of approach, but Paps better change it fast, if he wants to be paid like an elite closer.

[example1]

One thing is for sure' date=' it will not be as big of a market as the sox would have hoped, [/quote']

 

I would venture to guess that it is always a worse market than teams "hope". They aren't going to deal a year of Papelbon and expect to get Jason Heyward back, even though they would always hope for that to happen. When have you ever heard a FO say "the market was exactly like we wanted it, wouldn't have wanted any other bidders."? It's never as good as they hope it will be. That's what negotiation is all about.

 

and they might be better off just to pay him for one more yr, offer him arb after 2011 and take the two picks when he signs a 3 yr 45 mil contract.

 

The interesting thing will be after 2011. There's no doubt in my mind that they plan on signing him one way or another for 2011 unless they can deal him first. There's no reason to NOT have Papelbon, just as there's no reason to NOT have Ellsbury. There are however other people who can do their jobs on this club and there may not be on other clubs who are willing to pay more to have them.

 

The only thing Theo might be looking at is the possibility that Papelbon regresses for a third straight yr. At that point, his salary and trade value wont match

 

He's not going to regress himself out of being an effective pitcher. He's got an ability to get MLB hitters out most days. I personally just think Bard is a better pitcher. He's had to learn how to pitch, starting over completely with his stuff. His FB is lights-out and his slider is too and he's shown flases of an effective changeup. If he's healthy for the next few years he will be a tremendous force as a set-up man or closer. Unlike Papelbon, he may be willing to look at a longterm deal in a year or two that helps the club out financially.

[jacksonianmarch]

Paps is gonna be effective, I agree. But will he be effective to the tune of $13 million or so he'll probably get in arbitration?

[Palodios]

That's based on the assumption that we can replace anywhere near that level of production for significant savings. The FA RP market is way too volatile to call that a given.

 

J J Puttz, Scott Downs, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Jason Fraser, J C Romero... The list of free agent relievers is fairly good this offseason. 10-15 million per year will very likely be able to get atleast two of them. I'd rather have two good setup guys, than one great but declining closer.

[Dojji]

J J Puttz' date=' Scott Downs, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Jason Fraser, J C Romero... The list of free agent relievers is fairly good this offseason. 10-15 million per year will very likely be able to get atleast two of them. I'd rather have two good setup guys, than one great but declining closer.[/quote']

 

The only guys on that list I'd touch with a 10 foot pole are Downs and Putz. And the nature of the bullpen is that you don't have to get rid of your best reliever to bring in other quality relievers. Downs in particular I'd like to bring in no matter what happens with Papelbon, since he can play a role we need desperately whether or not we have our closer, so talking about him in relation to Papelbon is irrelevant, as there's room for both on the roster.

 

Heck we got enough coming off the books we could get Downs, Putz, Bard and Papelbon all on the same roster if we wanted to. Now there's a bullpen. Point is the pen isn't a zero-sum game when you have enough money.