6/17 vs Arizona 6:10 GAMETIME

[TedWilliams101]

Three mediocre months with the Sox don't make a career. Knee-jerking doesn't suit you.

 

Yes, you are correct, I'm just worried about the very real possibility that this IS Lackey. He's always had a pretty high WHIP for someone who pitches fairly well. I'm worried that he really does have trouble pitching at Fenway (as he got slaughtered as an Angel) and won't fair much better against AL East teams. He may dominate and return to norms, but so far he hasn't shown us anything to think that (other than the fact that he's a streaky pitcher).

 

It's a guessing game and I don't like to be kept guessing.

[yeszir]

Its ok guys I'm here now

[Palodios]

hooray. You brought the mojo with you, right?

[TedWilliams101]

Lackey is well off his career stats: ERA: 3.85, WHIP: 1.320, BBs/9: 2.7

You have to wonder how much of his good ERA comes from playing in Anaheim. Still, he should improve. He will never be an "ace" IMO; nor will Beckett.

 

His career line in LA is 3.72,1.3 WHIP, 2.65 K/BB.

 

The thing that worries me is his line at Fenway: 5.46, 1.57 WHIP, 2.17 K/BB

[Dipre]

Lackey is well off his career stats: ERA: 3.85, WHIP: 1.320, BBs/9: 2.7

You have to wonder how much of his good ERA comes from playing in Anaheim. Still, he should improve. He will never be an "ace" IMO; nor will Beckett.

 

Career stats:

 

Home: 3.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

 

Away: 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

[FredLynn]

Career stats:

 

Home: 3.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

 

Away: 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

 

Welcome to the AL East Mr Lackey: hope you enjoyed your time playing where our weaker sisters play.

[TedWilliams101]

Welcome to the AL East Mr Lackey: hope you enjoyed your time playing where our weaker sisters play.

 

That's not entirely true. He had to face the Rangers in his division and he absolutely got destroyed by them. The thing I don't like is that he hasn't fared well versus the Yankees (duh) or Rays (especially in TB).

[Palodios]

From the beginning, I never believed Lackey was meant to be an ace. They spent a lot of money on consistency. He's going to give them above average pitching with a lot of innings, and I know I've said it a dozen times, but he's here to protect the young pitchers. When Tazawa/Bowden were brought up early because of the lack of consistency from Penny/Smoltz, it really messed with their progression. Hell, even Buchholz may have been brought up prematurely. Sure, Doubront is coming up early, but I don't think a bad start so soon after moving up from AA will hurt his value as a prospect or his confidence.

 

Imagine where the Red Sox would be if they had gone with Lester/Buch/Beckett/Dice/Wake. Wake would probably be hurting, and it would be like the end of 2009 when they only had Lester and Buchholz and everyone else was underperforming.

[ORS]

Say what you want to about Nava.

 

He plays that wall very well. And he makes really good throws.

And he can hit a little.

[FredLynn]

That's not entirely true. He had to face the Rangers in his division and he absolutely got destroyed by them. The thing I don't like is that he hasn't fared well versus the Yankees (duh) or Rays (especially in TB).

 

He also had the A's and Mariners; not real offensive powerhouses-currently #12 and 13 in runs scored in the AL. The entire ALE offensively are in the top 6 with the Yankees, Sox, and Rays in the top three spots. He is not going to do as well in the ALE. He will be a serviceable #3 or maybe #4 SP for a contending team. Fortunately, Lester and Buchholtz are aces and we don't need him to be an ace. He will never be one.

[redsoxrules]

I dont get why Mcdonald bunted after a leadoff double , cant give away outs

[Palodios]

Orioles are around 29th in offense. Just saying!

[FredLynn]

Orioles are around 29th in offense. Just saying!

 

Runs scored in 2010 by the ALE: 1290

Runs scored in 2010 by the ALW: 1151

Difference: 139

Percentage more runs scored by the ALE vs the ALW: 12%

Thats significant. Its a LOT tougher in the ALE. He is never going to have the numbers in Boston that he had in LA. Probably 10% worse...give or take

[TedWilliams101]

OMG, A clean inning! Who woulda thought he had it in him!

[FredLynn]

Nice piece of hitting by Martinez.

[ORS]

Runs scored in 2010 by the ALE: 1290

Runs scored in 2010 by the ALW: 1151

Difference: 139

Percentage more runs scored by the ALE vs the ALW: 12%

Thats significant. Its a LOT tougher in the ALE. He is never going to have the numbers in Boston that he had in LA. Probably 10% worse...give or take

4 teams vs 5 teams?

 

Think that might have something to do with those numbers?

[Palodios]

Runs scored in 2010 by the ALE: 1290

Runs scored in 2010 by the ALW: 1151

Difference: 139

Percentage more runs scored by the ALE vs the ALW: 12%

Thats significant. Its a LOT tougher in the ALE. He is never going to have the numbers in Boston that he had in LA. Probably 10% worse...give or take

 

You need to take the Red Sox out of the equation before you do that kind of math. The Red Sox are #1 in runs scored, so it makes a big difference. 1290-349= 941. 941 x 1.25 = 1.25 = 1176. 1176 isn't that far off from 1151.

 

Edit-- based on what ORS said, I don't know if this is right either.

[Dipre]

Runs scored in 2010 by the ALE: 1290

Runs scored in 2010 by the ALW: 1151

Difference: 139

Percentage more runs scored by the ALE vs the ALW: 12%

Thats significant. Its a LOT tougher in the ALE. He is never going to have the numbers in Boston that he had in LA. Probably 10% worse...give or take

 

The AL East has five teams: Boston, Tampa, Toronto, New York, Baltimore.

 

The AL West has four teams: Texas, Anaheim, Seattle, Oakland.

[FredLynn]

Beltre should be running here

[Spudboy]

And he can hit a little.

 

But the honeymoon is over!!!!!

 

I like this kid.

[FredLynn]

4 teams vs 5 teams?

 

Think that might have something to do with those numbers?

 

OOPS

Here are the correct numbers:

 

ALE: 1610 runs, average 322 per team

ALW: 1151 runs, average 288 per team

Difference: still 11.8%

 

Thats what happens when you do it manually. Sorry

[Palodios]

I did my own math. The four teams in the AL East besides the Sox have scored 1245. The four teams in west have scored 1153. That's less than 8%.

 

The Sox play, what 18 games against other teams in the East? so, 72 total in the East. That's less than half the year. So the difference in runs would be around half as well, for the sake of argument, lets call it 4% total. So yes, being in the East affects your pitching, but if you're playing on one of the Sox/Yankees it doesn't affect it as much as you seem to suggest.

[TedWilliams101]

I did my own math. The four teams in the AL East besides the Sox have scored 1245. The four teams in west have scored 1153. That's less than 8%.

 

The Sox play, what 18 games against other teams in the East? so, 72 total in the East. That's less than half the year. So the difference in runs would be around half as well.

 

Well, you SHOULD take it a step further. Lackey played for the Angels, the best offense in the ALW by far. You really should take out the Angels and only use the 3 other teams in the ALW compared to the other 4 teams in the ALE (and I'm going on pre-2010 stats, as when he played in that division).

 

So, I'm sure when you take out the Angels, the number will rise well above 11%. (ALE minus the Sox is 311 runs per team, ALW minus the LAA is 277 runs per team. Considering the fact that the Angels offensive is significantly weaker this year, that's a HUGE difference.)

[Palodios]

Good call. I was a little short-sighted there. Although, Texas is hitting better, it still makes a difference.

[ORS]

Why are we continuing this discussion? Lackey has 6 starts now where he's given up more than 3 runs, and only two of them are against the ALE (TB and TOR). His best game of the year is against the Yankees, and he had another good start against TB. The idea that his struggles thus far this year are due to his own personal "welcome to the ALE" moment is an example of analytical laziness. He's been bad, against s***** competition, more this year than he has in years prior. That's why he's sucking.

[FredLynn]

I did my own math. The four teams in the AL East besides the Sox have scored 1245. The four teams in west have scored 1153. That's less than 8%.

 

The Sox play, what 18 games against other teams in the East? so, 72 total in the East. That's less than half the year. So the difference in runs would be around half as well, for the sake of argument, lets call it 4% total. So yes, being in the East affects your pitching, but if you're playing on one of the Sox/Yankees it doesn't affect it as much as you seem to suggest.

 

A reasonable way to look at it. Lets take out BOTH the Sox and the Angels then and look at the rest of the teams with a larger sample size-all of 09.

Average runs scored by the ALE per team (no Sox): 814

Average runs scored by the ALW per team (no LAA): 728

Difference: 11.8%

 

No matter how you look at it, the ALW is a much more "pitcher friendly" division to pitch in than the ALE. So I guess the whole point of this discussion is that we should expect that John Lackey will not do as well here as he did there. I think its going to be about 10% worse. We'll see how it works out.

[Palodios]

Why are we continuing this discussion? Lackey has 6 starts now where he's given up more than 3 runs' date=' and only two of them are against the ALE (TB and TOR). His best game of the year is against the Yankees, and he had another good start against TB. The idea that his struggles thus far this year are due to his own personal "welcome to the ALE" moment is an example of analytical laziness. He's been bad, against s***** competition, more this year than he has in years prior. That's why he's sucking.[/quote']

 

I blame boredom. Sorry.

[FredLynn]

Fastball at 95 right on the corner to get Montero. Great pitch

[Palodios]

(To tune of Nike commercial)

Anything Drew can do, Drew can do better. Drew can do anything better than Drew.

[Palodios]

I'm bouncing off the walls today. I probably shouldn't have skipped my daily run.