Why Beltre Will Only Cost $2 Million....

[Dipre]

My point was, and I repeat, you were wrong about the Red Sox defense last year. Although it wasn't very good, you exaggerated how bad it was. I supported my position with Fangraphs team fielding stats, which default to ranking by team UZR. Fangraphs ranks the Sox in the lower middle, ahead of the Yankees.

 

I also point out the obvious statistical disconnect between Fangraphs's good fielding teams and championship teams, as the top seven ranked fielding teams did not even make the playoffs. However, I did not share a conclusion here as to why that was.

 

But again, you're trying to use a statistic that makes a point of comparing players relative to his peers at the position on a global scale, not to mention that, being a cumulative stat, a couple good players (Youkils, Pedroia, Drew) can carry a team to respectability while the discounting the inadequacies of other players on the team.

 

If anything, you're trying to discount the impact the defensive struggles of four of the eight position players on the Red Sox (C included, which UZR does not account for) had on the team's problems last year.

 

Also, you're comparing apples to oranges, none of the "seven teams" can be compared to the Red Sox as currently constructed.

 

If you're trying to make a point, you're failing miserably at it, by trying to not only use a stat incorrectly, but by trying to use seven obviously inferior teams and compare them to the current Red Sox.

 

I'll post it again:

 

Postion-by-position breakdown:

 

P: 29 out of 30.

 

1B: 2 out of 30.

 

2B: 7 out of 30

 

SS: 12 out of 30 (Thank you Alex Gonzales)

 

3B: 29 out of 30.

 

RF: 8 out of 30

 

CF: 30 out of 30

 

LF: 25 out of 30.

 

That is three positions (excluding catcher) where the Red Sox had among the worse defense in the league. Not average, not slightly below average, but worse.

 

About the "not sharing a conclusion line" well, i'm running by habit, since you're the "I don't like anything the Red Sox do and i don't like JD Drew" line. So i apologize if this actually isn't meant as a way to prove a point.

[Plumpamania]

Essentially I'm going to agree with Dipre, the fangraph you use is allowing our strong positions to carry our lesser positions. However when you look at the most important defenders, (up the middle defense) the # of games started by Julio Lugo and Nick Green are a tremendous discomfort to the overall defense, as well as Ellsbury's very much lack of defensive skill at the moment. Our catchers suck hard in terms of throwing runners out, as the Angels ran on us all day long.

 

In reality the team as currently constructed is less about the 3R HR, and moreso about winning that 3-2 or 3-1 game with strong pitching, and depth there, as well as a very strong defense.

 

With the additions of Beltre, Scutaro and Cameron and the shift of Ellsbury to LF, where in limited action has an excellent UZR rating..leaves us with only catcher as a weakness in terms of defense.

 

Enjoy the season, you're going to get old school Boston baseball, being blue collar and grinded out.

[rhet]

I didn't use anything incorrectly.

Fangraphs defaults to team UZR when it ranks team defense. Take it up with them.

 

Also, you can disaggregate the team defensive numbers any way you like. But you should modify your claim and say that half the Sox defense stunk last year (4 of 8), not the whole team. Then you wouldn't be so at odds with Fangraph's team UZR ranking.

[redsoxrules]

The Red Sox were 29th in team defense in terms of DER

 

DER=

 

Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please note that errors include only errors on batted balls

 

 

so there you go , the Red Sox as a team sucked at defense last year

 

 

DER is a much better tool than UZR to determine team defense

 

UZR is more usefull for a position player and NOT a team

[rhet]

The Red Sox were 29th in team defense in terms of DER

 

DER=

 

Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please note that errors include only errors on batted balls

 

 

so there you go , the Red Sox as a team sucked at defense last year

 

 

DER is a much better tool than UZR to determine team defense

 

UZR is more usefull for a position player and NOT a team

 

 

DER doesn't account for differences in GB/LD/FB. That's probably why Fangraphs defaults to UZR.

[redsoxrules]

Also , I remember watching a interview with Theo about DER , that he wasent happy with being one of the worst team for that

 

and by looking at the moves he's made so far it makes sense

[Dipre]

I didn't use anything incorrectly.

Fangraphs defaults to team UZR when it ranks team defense. Take it up with them.

 

Also, you can disaggregate the team defensive numbers any way you like. But you should modify your claim and say that half the Sox defense stunk last year (4 of 8), not the whole team. Then you wouldn't be so at odds with Fangraph's team UZR ranking.

 

Do you know what UZR actually does?

 

It calculates the number of runs above or below average a player is. Being a cumulative number. When not used in a position-by-position basis, you risk having the actual value be sidetracked by having a couple of positions with high positive values "hiding" other positions with low value, just as it happens there.

 

Cherry-pick and whine all you want, in this case, the total looks prettier than the sum of its parts. And it still doesn't account for the defensive deficiencies at C.

[ORS]

DER needs to be adjusted for park. Think about it. It's essentially 1 - BABIP. BABIP uses hits that don't leave the park, and at Fenway, the Monster makes a lot of ball unplayable while not being HR. BP has PADE (park adjusted DER), and the Sox were 18 out of 30 (about where they were with UZR). They are below average (in both), which is bad, but they weren't awful.

 

Regardless. They are a safe bet to be much better at preventing runs (or condoming them) this season. Whichever adjective they are rebounding from is immaterial.

[Dipre]

DER needs to be adjusted for park. Think about it. It's essentially 1 - BABIP. BABIP uses hits that don't leave the park, and at Fenway, the Monster makes a lot of ball unplayable while not being HR. BP has PADE (park adjusted DER), and the Sox were 18 out of 30 (about where they were with UZR). They are below average (in both), which is bad, but they weren't awful.

 

Regardless. They are a safe bet to be much better at preventing runs (or condoming them) this season. Whichever adjective they are rebounding from is immaterial.

 

They were 16/30 in UZR, but 18/30 in UZR/150, compare them to the 2008 club which ranked 4th in UZR, the 2007 club which ranked 9th, and it's easy to see a massive drop-off from recent clubs.

[rhet]

Do you know what UZR actually does?

 

It calculates the number of runs above or below average a player is. Being a cumulative number. When not used in a position-by-position basis, you risk having the actual value be sidetracked by having a couple of positions with high positive values "hiding" other positions with low value, just as it happens there.

 

Cherry-pick and whine all you want, in this case, the total looks prettier than the sum of its parts. And it still doesn't account for the defensive deficiencies at C.

 

Fangraphs defaults to team UZR when it ranks team defense. Take it up with them.

[yankees228]

There are some solid points above.

 

The Sox essentially shifted $ to starting pitching (Lackey), hopefully improving their 'D' but with a willingness to take a hit offensively. It appears to me that the Red Sox FO identified a payroll level that they could live with, took into account the benefit of not signing position players to LT contracts (Bay, Holliday, etc) and added a very good starting pitcher ...all in hopes of competing this year while not totally breaking the bank or mortgaging the future.

 

I realize it is difficult for most Yankee fans to understand this philosophy so I can't really jump all over Jacko for his comments...they're simply the product of being a fan of an organization that operates under an entirely different philosophy than the Red Sox...and any other MLB team for that matter.

 

The last paragraph does not make sense. In my opinion, the Red Sox shift in philosophy has nothing to do with money. They have a lot of money, and they've spent it this offseason. It has to do with building around their strengths. When they had Ortiz/Ramirez in the middle of the lineup, the focus was more on power and OBP. Now that those two are gone, instead of trying to replace them, which is practically impossible (no matter what your payroll limit is), they've adopted a new philosophy.

 

The Yankees currently benefit from the advantage that the Red Sox had all those years, the dominant 3-4. So now, the Red Sox, being a smart front office, have gone in a different direction; pitching, defense, speed, with some power and OBP mixed in.

[Dipre]

Fangraphs defaults to team UZR when it ranks team defense. Take it up with them.

 

I will.

 

I'll tell them exactly what i told you.

[Rdsxmbnt]

They were 16/30 in UZR' date=' but 18/30 in UZR/150, compare them to the 2008 club which ranked 4th in UZR, the 2007 club which ranked 9th, and it's easy to see a massive drop-off from recent clubs.[/quote']

 

This is the same UZR that thought Ellsbury dropped close to 30 runs on defense alone from 08 to 09, I think that leaves a lot of questions about its exact usefulness.

[Dipre]

This is the same UZR that thought Ellsbury dropped close to 30 runs on defense alone from 08 to 09' date=' I think that leaves a lot of questions about its exact usefulness.[/quote']

 

In 2008, a lot of Ellsbury's value came from his stints as a RF and LF. His UZR as a CF was 6.0.

[Rdsxmbnt]

In 2008' date=' a lot of Ellsbury's value came from his stints as a RF and LF. His UZR as a CF was 6.0.[/quote']

 

Still though, he was a 6.9 UZR/150 CF in 08 and then a -18.3 UZR/150 in 09. I don't want to suggest throwing UZR out the window but given the variability it would be hard to make heads or tails of the team rankings.

[Dipre]

Still though' date=' he was a 6.9 UZR/150 CF in 08 and then a -18.3 UZR/150 in 09. I don't want to suggest throwing UZR out the window but given the variability it would be hard to make heads or tails of the team rankings.[/quote']

 

I believe one of the reasons for said variability is that both 2007 and 2008 are SS when compared to his full 2009 body of work, that being said, the fact that there is a variability factor inherent to the UZR statistic is absolutely true.

[SoxSport]

I think the Sox are hoping for a standoff on offense vs last year, combined with much better pitching and defense. Lots of things went wrong last year with the pitching (Dice-K, etc), and they are hoping for much better this year. The defense may be the best in Baseball this year. Hitting-wise, they may come out ahead, when you consider Ortiz was an out in April-May last year while he was kept in the lineup batting 3rd or 4th. Ouch. And the same happened to Bay during the summer. Tek was a no-show in the 2nd half.

 

Defensively, they still have to improve at throwing out runners. You can't have teams running blind on you every game.

 

They should improve their mediocre road record this year, but Tito may have to utilize some of that team speed better, now that they have even more of it, and play some smallball in those low scoring games on the road.

[Mr Crunchy]

They should improve their mediocre road record this year, but Tito may have to utilize some of that team speed better, now that they have even more of it, and play some smallball in those low scoring games on the road.

 

agreed, they needed to revamp their offense once the power guys left. Bay and Lowell are both power guys, Ortiz and Pedroia both hit under their expected figures as far as power goes last year and replacing both Lowell and Bay with Cameron and Beltre isnt going to solve the power problem but it does give us other options that maybe more beneficial in the grand scheme of things.

Both these guys run although Beltre doesnt steal that often.

We now have Ells, Pedroia, Cameron, Drew,Scutaro and Beltre who can all run, this team will be forced to change its offensive philosophy from being a patient club with big OBP #s and better than average power to a team that bunts a little more, runs a little more and over all puts the pressure on the other teams defense.

It wasnt just Beckett that failed us down the stretch last year, Paplebon became very beatable and Lester didnt pitch all that well down the stretch either.

Hopefully their arms are well rested, hopefully the bullpen can get to consistancy and hopefully all these new faces bring some energy to an offense that was pedestrian to say the least and f***ing awful in October when it mattered most.

[Dojji]

NO bunting. I'm glad we have a team full of people who can go first to third, but if anyone on this team bunts, that's one bunt too many. The only exceptions are Ellsbury and MAYBE Pedroia, who have the speed to beat it out.

 

There's plenty of room to have an OBP/SB/first-to-third oriented lineup with average power in the middle and score a lot of runs doing it.. Heck, that's what the Angels have done for years now.

[Dipre]

Jon Lester ERA,K/9,SO/BB in August/September-October:

 

August: 2.41, 10.4, 4.33

 

September/October: 2.52, 9.6, 3.45

 

That's elite production down the stretch. And he had a good outing against the Angels, don't know what more you could expect.

 

Jonathan Papelbon ERA,K/9,SO/BB in August/September-October:

 

August: 1.69, 13.5 K/9, 4.00 SO/BB

 

September/October: 1.46, 9.5 SO/9, 0 BB, 0.487 WHIP

 

This team doesn't have a power problem. It has a consistency problem, which is what they tried to address in the off-season.

 

Minus the ALDS hiccup, again, elite production.

 

Last season, the Sox hit 212 HR's and 335 2B, they replaced Bay's 36 HR and 29 doubles with Cameron's 25 HR's and 30 2B's, added a 25-HR/30 2B bat in Beltre, and a 10 HR/25 2B bat in Scutaro while upgrading the infield defense.

 

The only true wild-card in this offense is David Ortiz. If he plays like he's capable of playing, then there is no "need for a bat". If he regresses further, then we have a power problem and the Sox need a bat.

[Dipre]

NO bunting. I'm glad we have a team full of people who can go first to third, but if anyone on this team bunts, that's one bunt too many. The only exceptions are Ellsbury and MAYBE Pedroia, who have the speed to beat it out.

 

There's plenty of room to have an OBP/SB/first-to-third oriented lineup with average power in the middle and score a lot of runs doing it.. Heck, that's what the Angels have done for years now.

 

Hold up there.

 

This team doesn't have "average power" in the middle of the lineup. That's where people are getting it wrong.

 

Most teams don't have 85-90 Home Run potential from their 3-4-5 hitters. The Sox do, and they also have 65-70 HR potential from their 6-7-8 hitters. There is power all over the lineup.

[Keeper]

There is also nothing wrong with bunting when the situation calls for it.

[Dipre]

There is also nothing wrong with bunting when the situation calls for it.

 

This team's philosophy is not to give away outs. But a lot of times a bunt with men on first and second will have a groundout resulting in a run scored instead of 5-2-3 DP that erases the chance at scoring.

 

Just sayin'.

[Dojji]

There is also nothing wrong with bunting when the situation calls for it.

 

If you also point out that the situation calls for it a lot less frequently than most managers call for it, I'll agree.

 

Unless there's a runner at first and second with no one out and a weak hitter up though, bunting tends to produce less runs than not bunting.