Harden to Red Sox?

[Cocos Disciples]

Go back and read the articles from around the time they traded for him. that year Seattle was in the Wild Card hunt and actually led the Yankees at the end of August. I don't think it's much of a stretch to think that their GM thought he was close and the Silva signing and the Bedard trade bears that out.

 

Of course their offseason was a freaking disaster, their first baseman evaporated in a puff of slider batspeed, their best player was killing the baseball for the Orioles, the ghost of Kenji Johjima haunted the back of home plate providing virtually nothing and inexplicably batting fifth, Jose Vidro stopped providing... whatever it was they deluded themselves into thinking he could provide from the DH spot, Carlos Silva nearly outdid Barry Zito as one of the worst contracts in MLB, and their rotation fell apart completely even without Bedard's own nonparticipation.

 

Bedard was promised a contender and instead the Mariners collapsed utterly -- thanks in large part to the deal that brought him there.

 

In the top three worst trades of the decade IMO.

[Dipre]

In the AL West' date=' yes, which also hosts several of the larger parks in our league.[/quote']

 

Which is exactly the argument you're making for post-surgery Bedard.

When a guy has an ERA of 4 in the NL Central, why are we assuming he belongs in the AL East? If the NL Central is a hitter's paradise, we're a hitter's Utopia.

 

Sure, but when the guy has the stuff to succeed and you take out the unsustainable 4.35 BB/9 attributed at first to coming back from an elbow injury which, unlike a torn labrum the pitcher can come back fully from, then sure.

 

Furthermore, why exactly are we playing the my-division-is-scarier game without acknowledging Bedard's prior experience in the AL East while playing for a team that faced both the Yankees and the Red Sox?

 

The comparison was Penny-Harden, master of the strawman.

 

 

 

Most of the changes seem to be within a standard deviation of the mean.

 

I mean, I'm supposed to be worried about a fastball velocity drop from 92.1 to 91.6 over two years that you yourself admit represent smaller sample sizes?

 

Not to mention that most of these numbers have a minimal baseline at best from Bedard's healthy years to form a basis for comparison.

 

This falls under Mark Twain's "damn lies and statistics" heading as far as I'm concerned.

 

I wrongfully assumed you had ACTUALLY somewhat followed Bedard this year and knew his fastball velocity was along normal ranges before the 100,000 injuries of this year, and that the massive drop is concerning because of the sample size of pitching post-injury.

 

I fail for assuming you could make such a complicated connection, and for that, i apologize.

 

[What argument?

 

Good question, why i keep trying to convince you of the utter failure that 90% of your posts could be classified as is beyond me.

 

Let me sum it up:

 

Bedard had a torn labrum.

 

Harden does not.

 

That simple enough for you?

[Dojji]

Really? Does it matter that he's done it twice? Last I checked' date=' Bedard's injured just as much, if not more, and his velocity numbers have gone down. Sign of decline[/quote']

 

It certainly matters that he's done it more recently.

 

Harden would be one heck of a 5th starter. We can put him in a position to make him successful in that context. But he doesn't seem to have the stamina for much more than that.

 

 

 

Harden's upside is tremendous, and I completely advocate going after Harden, considering the fact that he's proven in the AL, and Bedard and JD are fragile, and in my opinion don't have as good of stuff as Harden. I think that alone is adequate enough for advocating going after Harden

 

And Bedard and JD are just as big of risks, without the upside. As was stated earlier, I think Bedard could lose the 'tude about not wanting to play for his team. That strikes you, when a guy feels as if he's not properly motivated. He's being paid, and he shouldn't piss and moan about his team's performance, he should go out and do his job, and he shouldn't bitch. Like I said before, it was the Mariners.

 

Frankly I disagree that Harden's upside is tremendous, if only because his reality is already pretty good. In the end, it's a tossup between the three IMHO. Harden has vastly superior stuff, Duchscherer puts the other two two shame with his command, and Bedard's somewhere in the middle, but has actually put together consecutive healthy seasons a couple years ago. All three will probably miss some time, and we have no real ability from here to predict who and how much, so that line of reasoning is stagnant.

 

All else being equal, or at least being close enough, I want the guy who has proven he can handle our division. That's just my opinion, and I make no apologies for it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Huh? No one said you were "overpaying" for anything, but the fact that you don't think it's out of the question for us to get both is startling.

 

Why?

 

 

 

And as said before, we don't look for a reliever. We're looking for a 5th starter, not a guy who goes back and forth spot-starter.

 

And if we get struck by lucky lightning, I want a guy who can slide into another rule rather than sitting in Pawtucket forever.

 

Also, if we re-up Wakefield, like I think we will, then a swing-man to back up Wakefield when he has his annual back injury starts to look like a darn good idea at that point.

 

 

 

You think that that's all we're going to have to give up? Don't even understand that we have other needs? We can't just blow our entire system to bolster our roster to one of the best in history. It's out of the question.

 

Uhh.... what??? Which system exactly would we be blowing? Cuz last I checked, the team wasn't exactly short on cash.

 

And yes, to pick up two free agents who may or may not be offered arbitration from their ballclubs, that may very well be all we have to give up. If they accept arb? Then the Cubs and/or Mariners get a draft pick (I can't imagine the Athletics offering Duchscherer arb).

 

 

 

Read the above statement. We have other needs, and it's not going to happen. Technically, you're right, it could, but why would you even bring that up? There's not even the slightest chance of it happening.

 

You need to check your work for internal consistency.

[Dipre]

It certainly matters that he's done it more recently.

 

Harden would be one heck of a 5th starter. We can put him in a position to make him successful in that context. But he doesn't seem to have the stamina for much more than that.

 

Isn't that exactly what this team is looking for?

 

Frankly I disagree that Harden's upside is tremendous, if only because his reality is already pretty good. In the end, it's a tossup between the three IMHO. Harden has vastly superior stuff, Duchscherer puts the other two two shame with his command, and Bedard's somewhere in the middle, but has actually put together consecutive healthy seasons a couple years ago. All three will probably miss some time, and we have no real ability from here to predict who and how much, so that line of reasoning is stagnant.

 

All else being equal, or at least being close enough, I want the guy who has proven he can handle our division. That's just my opinion, and I make no apologies for it.

 

Yeah but the guy has a torn labrum.

 

Genius assessment.

 

 

 

 

 

Why?

 

Wut?

 

 

 

And if we get struck by lucky lightning, I want a guy who can slide into another rule rather than sitting in Pawtucket forever.

 

Also, if we re-up Wakefield, like I think we will, then a swing-man to back up Wakefield when he has his annual back injury starts to look like a darn good idea at that point.

 

 

Grasping at straws.

 

Uhh.... what??? Which system exactly would we be blowing? Cuz last I checked, the team wasn't exactly short on cash.

 

And yes, to pick up two free agents who may or may not be offered arbitration from their ballclubs, that may very well be all we have to give up. If they accept arb? Then the Cubs and/or Mariners get a draft pick (I can't imagine the Athletics offering Duchscherer arb).

 

 

 

I didn't know that:

 

A) You had any knowledge of how much the Sox are willing to spend.

 

B ) A 5th starter was our only concern this offseason (Bay, SS,)

 

C) You have any idea how the Sox are going to use their resources.

 

 

You need to check your work for internal consistency.

 

You need to stop living in Doiji-land.

[Dojji]

Bedard had a torn labrum.

 

Harden does not.

 

That simple enough for you?

 

Ack. You're right, I missed what the extent of the injury was. I thought it was just a generic shoulder problem. I was hoping our shoulder strengthening program would help him there.

 

OK, scrap Bedard then. Likely as not he won't be pitching in 2010 anyway.

 

Although frankly, with Harden's perennial shoulder and forearm problems, and the fact that he's a hard thrower, I can't imagine he won't have a call from Mr. Thomas John at some point himself.

[Emmz]

You need to check your work for internal consistency.

 

I just wanted to get to this, I'll get to the other bit when I have time tomorrow, but I feel like it's necessary to defend this. When I say technically it could, that means that, well, in reality, there's no chance of it ever happening. Technically, we could trade for Tex, Sabathia, and a bunch of other guys if we really wanted to. Technically, we could trade Dustin Pedroia for Nick Punto, and technically Nick Punto could have a 80 home run, 80 RBI season, and technically, the Red Sox could go undefeated. Guess what? It's not a reality. Consistent? I think it's plenty consistent, but either way, I think you're the last person who should get into a dispute over consistency.

[Dipre]

Ack. You're right, I missed what the extent of the injury was. I thought it was just a generic shoulder problem. I was hoping our shoulder strengthening program would help him there.

 

OK, scrap Bedard then. Likely as not he won't be pitching in 2010 anyway.

 

He probably will.

 

But that's what i've been trying to tell you about diminished stuff all along.

[Dojji]

He probably will.

 

But that's what i've been trying to tell you about diminished stuff all along.

 

As I recall about Bedard though, he never threw all THAT hard. He was a low 90's fastball guy who lived off his curve, unless I'm totally insane.

 

My point is that if he can get that shoulder healthy, it's not really that unreasonable to hope he can come back. Course, that's one heck of an "if."

 

And seriously, if I remember anything from my reading about sports injuries, you don't suddenly have a labrum injury. that had to becoming on for awhile.

 

Meaning that the league is smarter without Bavasi polluting it, since he probably traded for an injured pitcher. Also meaning that a lot of that "dimished stuff" is possibly accounted for in his 2099 performance. A guy doesn't very often pitch worse while he's injured than he does after he's recovered.

 

On the other hand, we've watched this injury claim Matt Clement and Curt Schilling just from this team in the last few years so I'd be a fool to underestimate it.

[ORS]

You have the control of google. All this information that you act like was being withheld from you is freely available, provided you are willing to research your point enough to be well informed. Jumping right in with both feet is not the right approach.

[Dojji]

I'd like to point out that I did do research. I just came away with incomplete info.

 

Honestly though, Bedard's been on my lust list for awhile. I wanted him last year too.

 

For some reason I never really got the love affair with Rich Harden. On the emotional level I can't make myself want the guy. The problem is if I just say that, we're right back to where we began with me being called an idiot because how can you not want this guy. So I do my best to surround my argument with logic, which I've always sucked at, and we wind up right where I would have wound up anyway.

 

It names no sense, but again we come back to the main point -- I've always sucked at logic.

[Dipre]

You have the control of google. All this information that you act like was being withheld from you is freely available' date=' provided you are willing to research your point enough to be well informed. Jumping right in with both feet is not the right approach.[/quote']

 

This.

 

Not meaning to flame Doiji, but i was pretty damn sure he knew Bedard had a torn labrum.

 

If he's trying to defend his point, he's supposed to have researched everything about the matter at hand.

 

If you want everyone to take you seriously, research the subject and organize your ideas before posting.

[Dojji]

Not meaning to flame Doiji' date=' but i was pretty damn sure he knew Bedard had a torn labrum.[/quote']

 

I'll go this far by way of concessions.

 

I should have known he had a torn labrum.

[Dipre]

I'll go this far by way of concessions.

 

I should have known he had a torn labrum.

 

Getting the discussion back on track, part of the reason why i don't think the FO will sign two FA Sp's is because the LF and SS situations need to be addressed.

[Keeper]

If Harden is your 5th starter and he gives you 25 starts, you've got one hell of a rotation.

[Dipre]

If Harden is your 5th starter and he gives you 25 starts' date=' you've got one hell of a rotation.[/quote']

 

This has been my point all along.

 

The man has dynamite stuff.

[example1]

This has been my point all along.

 

The man has dynamite stuff.

 

Honestly, so does Bedard when healthy. He had over 200Ks a few years back in the AL East (yes, I'll take that as a sign of dominance).

 

I don't entirely know why people jump on Dojji for suggesting Bedard and Duchscher, other than their injuries. I would have no problem with the Sox putting Harden through a tough battery of tests before signing him and would expect the same of Bedard or JD. I don't think JD is their option, unless they get him for the pen a la Saito (not a la Penny).

 

I think people are looking at the whole "signing used garbage" thing through a bit of a filter. I understand that neither Penny or Smoltz worked. They did, however, pitch on a team that won 95 games. This team achieved amazing things and part of that team was Penny (in particular) pitching a lot of innings at average or below-average production. Theo's goal I would guess is to try to acquire rehabbing ex-stars to see if they have anything left. Similar to the interview he gave on the Sportshub the otherday, I bet he'd be willing to say that it's a 50:50 type shot. The 50% doesn't mean there's half a chance they come back to old form, merely that they produce league average or so, and maybe a good chance that they produce more than that.

 

 

I'm willing to bet that the FO has weighed the potential gains from the potential losses of signing these guys and figure that some percent will be roughly average, some will be slightly worse, some slightly better, and some excellent. The overall risk of signing one of these guys to be your #5 is quite low if you already have a team built to win 95 games (which they do). I think we should expect more of these throughout Theo's tenure. According to his discussion of trades, at least, Theo indicated that the team has a really solid process for determining which players to acquire and when (via trade), and that even if those trades go poorly, they usually go back feeling that they had decided on the trade based on the best availabile information at the time. I think FA signings are the same. They wouldn't sign someone they expected would ruin their season, and they haven't. Penny and Smoltz didn't ruin the season at all.

 

I think that the time Theo catches lightning in a bottle will be when one of those pitchers puts up a 7 or 8 WARP season and really boosts the pre-existing rotation. I think that Harden, Bedard and Webb all look like options for that role.

 

Doj, I hear you that Harden wouldnt want to be a reliever. That's fine. I think, however, that players are open to coming to a team like the Red Sox because they win and could immediately boost their value if they have a good season or two. There's benefit to coming to Boston as a FA.

 

Webb has a huge option next year and is injured to the point that his ability to perform will be in question. I don't think I would love the Sox picking up a huge option like that on one of their players, so I can't imagine Arizona is thrilled at the prospect. At the same time, it's Brandon Webb, so they very likely could.

 

To me, Harden makes the most sense. We can argue about his stuff vs. Bedard's stuff, but Harden had some of the best stuff in baseball when he's one. He's probably similar to AJ Burnett, except that what Burnett does in inconsistency Harden does in injury time.

 

I always wonder how players can throw a ball 95 mph and not just throw their arm out every season. Harden makes me remember that these guys are human.

[Dipre]

Honestly, so does Bedard when healthy. He had over 200Ks a few years back in the AL East (yes, I'll take that as a sign of dominance).

 

I don't entirely know why people jump on Dojji for suggesting Bedard and Duchscher, other than their injuries. I would have no problem with the Sox putting Harden through a tough battery of tests before signing him and would expect the same of Bedard or JD. I don't think JD is their option, unless they get him for the pen a la Saito (not a la Penny).

 

I think people are looking at the whole "signing used garbage" thing through a bit of a filter. I understand that neither Penny or Smoltz worked. They did, however, pitch on a team that won 95 games. This team achieved amazing things and part of that team was Penny (in particular) pitching a lot of innings at average or below-average production. Theo's goal I would guess is to try to acquire rehabbing ex-stars to see if they have anything left. Similar to the interview he gave on the Sportshub the otherday, I bet he'd be willing to say that it's a 50:50 type shot. The 50% doesn't mean there's half a chance they come back to old form, merely that they produce league average or so, and maybe a good chance that they produce more than that.

 

 

I'm willing to bet that the FO has weighed the potential gains from the potential losses of signing these guys and figure that some percent will be roughly average, some will be slightly worse, some slightly better, and some excellent. The overall risk of signing one of these guys to be your #5 is quite low if you already have a team built to win 95 games (which they do). I think we should expect more of these throughout Theo's tenure. According to his discussion of trades, at least, Theo indicated that the team has a really solid process for determining which players to acquire and when (via trade), and that even if those trades go poorly, they usually go back feeling that they had decided on the trade based on the best availabile information at the time. I think FA signings are the same. They wouldn't sign someone they expected would ruin their season, and they haven't. Penny and Smoltz didn't ruin the season at all.

 

I think that the time Theo catches lightning in a bottle will be when one of those pitchers puts up a 7 or 8 WARP season and really boosts the pre-existing rotation. I think that Harden, Bedard and Webb all look like options for that role.

 

Doj, I hear you that Harden wouldnt want to be a reliever. That's fine. I think, however, that players are open to coming to a team like the Red Sox because they win and could immediately boost their value if they have a good season or two. There's benefit to coming to Boston as a FA.

 

Webb has a huge option next year and is injured to the point that his ability to perform will be in question. I don't think I would love the Sox picking up a huge option like that on one of their players, so I can't imagine Arizona is thrilled at the prospect. At the same time, it's Brandon Webb, so they very likely could.

 

To me, Harden makes the most sense. We can argue about his stuff vs. Bedard's stuff, but Harden had some of the best stuff in baseball when he's one. He's probably similar to AJ Burnett, except that what Burnett does in inconsistency Harden does in injury time.

 

I always wonder how players can throw a ball 95 mph and not just throw their arm out every season. Harden makes me remember that these guys are human.

 

Because again, Eric Bedard has a TORN LABRUM.

 

Do you know the effects a torn labrum has on a pitcher?

 

And DUCHSCHERER is coming off major elbow rehab and got scratched from his 2009 major league debut for clinical depression, he didn't throw a single pitch to the plate in 2009 for an MLB team..

 

Listen, i'm not trying to be a douche, but you're doin' exactly what he did.

 

Get your fact straights before throwing stuff out there.

 

If you're gonna come in and try to issue the puppy dog defense team statement, at least make it with reason Jesus Christ.

[Dojji]

While we're on the subject of often-injured pitchers with interesting stuff, has there been any news on Ben Sheets? Is he done for good? A cursory news search doesn't reveal a whole lot of recent info on the guy.

[Dipre]

While we're on the subject of often-injured pitchers with interesting stuff' date=' has there been any news on Ben Sheets? Is he done for good? A cursory news search doesn't reveal a whole lot of recent info on the guy.[/quote']

 

Interesting player to look into.

[yeszir]

This thread is back open provided the discussion focuses on RICH HARDEN.

[Dojji]

The first question to ask when talking about Harden, IMHO, is are we actually looking for a fulltime starter.

 

I'm not sure we are. Not that Harden wouldn't represent an upgrade over Wakefield, but if we went into the season with what we had, we'd not only be OK we'd have one of the better rotations in baseball.

 

I have to think that solving that #5 starter role has to be secondary to dealing with the mess at short or resolving our future at left field.

 

I also think Harden is likely to avoid any club that speculates about his usefulness out of the pen. If he was really willing to experiment in that area he'd probably have done it by now. Otherwise he'd probably be making more money as the closer type he'd be if he tried it.

[Cocos Disciples]

The first question to ask when talking about Harden, IMHO, is are we actually looking for a fulltime starter.

 

I'm not sure we are. Not that Harden wouldn't represent an upgrade over Wakefield, but if we went into the season with what we had, we'd not only be OK we'd have one of the better rotations in baseball.

 

I have to think that solving that #5 starter role has to be secondary to dealing with the mess at short or resolving our future at left field.

 

I also think Harden is likely to avoid any club that speculates about his usefulness out of the pen. If he was really willing to experiment in that area he'd probably have done it by now. Otherwise he'd probably be making more money as the closer type he'd be if he tried it.

 

Interesting comment about the bullpen. I don't know much about conversion from starter to reliever (as in what traits are best), but I would imagine having a huge K/9 ratio would help. I know it does for closer. If so, Harden has averaged around 11 K/9 the past two years. Of course as you said, he may not be willing to.

 

Either way, he's probably more useful as a starter, and that's what we would need him to do the most.

[BSN07]

The first question to ask when talking about Harden, IMHO, is are we actually looking for a fulltime starter.

 

I'm not sure we are. Not that Harden wouldn't represent an upgrade over Wakefield, but if we went into the season with what we had, we'd not only be OK we'd have one of the better rotations in baseball.

 

I have to think that solving that #5 starter role has to be secondary to dealing with the mess at short or resolving our future at left field.

 

I also think Harden is likely to avoid any club that speculates about his usefulness out of the pen. If he was really willing to experiment in that area he'd probably have done it by now. Otherwise he'd probably be making more money as the closer type he'd be if he tried it.

 

There's no reason they can't work on them at the same time. Just because you work on one, doesn't mean your not working on the others.

[Dipre]

Interesting comment about the bullpen. I don't know much about conversion from starter to reliever (as in what traits are best), but I would imagine having a huge K/9 ratio would help. I know it does for closer. If so, Harden has averaged around 11 K/9 the past two years. Of course as you said, he may not be willing to.

 

Either way, he's probably more useful as a starter, and that's what we would need him to do the most.

 

This.

 

We don't need a swingman, we need a 5th starter.

[Dojji]

Interesting comment about the bullpen. I don't know much about conversion from starter to reliever (as in what traits are best), but I would imagine having a huge K/9 ratio would help. I know it does for closer. If so, Harden has averaged around 11 K/9 the past two years. Of course as you said, he may not be willing to.

 

Either way, he's probably more useful as a starter, and that's what we would need him to do the most.

 

I really don't think we're on his list. If he comes to Boston he's in some danger of getting crowded into the pen since we have 4 well above average starters and some interesting prospects coming up in the very near future.

 

It would free the Sox to trade Bowden though, which is a common thread in other moves discussed on the forum. if he's willing to come here, I'm not denying that he'd be a good asset to have during the healthy times.

[Cocos Disciples]

I really don't think we're on his list. If he comes to Boston he's in some danger of getting crowded into the pen since we have 4 well above average starters and some interesting prospects coming up in the very near future.

 

It would free the Sox to trade Bowden though, which is a common thread in other moves discussed on the forum. if he's willing to come here, I'm not denying that he'd be a good asset to have during the healthy times.

 

I think Harden would be guaranteed a rotation spot if he came here. Opening day's rotation would be: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Harden. Guys like Bowden and Tazawa would be used for injury insurance (with Matsuzaka and Harden, this is an important role), and bullpen help.

[Dipre]

I really don't think we're on his list. If he comes to Boston he's in some danger of getting crowded into the pen since we have 4 well above average starters and some interesting prospects coming up in the very near future.

 

It would free the Sox to trade Bowden though, which is a common thread in other moves discussed on the forum. if he's willing to come here, I'm not denying that he'd be a good asset to have during the healthy times.

 

This makes no sense.

 

Please elaborate.

[Dojji]

This makes no sense.

 

Please elaborate.

 

Say he struggles a little at the outset, then gets hurt for a couple weeks. In the meantime, they call up Tazawa, who pitches brilliantly.

 

I dunno about you but I'm not going to be 100% sanguine about just handing the rotation spot back to an underperformer given a reasonable alternative. And from a "value to the team" perspective, Harden to the pen seems like exactly that to me.

[yeszir]

By the way, if I have to lock this thread again, people are getting banned.

[Dipre]

Say he struggles a little at the outset, then gets hurt for a couple weeks. In the meantime, they call up Tazawa, who pitches brilliantly.

 

I dunno about you but I'm not going to be 100% sanguine about just handing the rotation spot back to an underperformer given a reasonable alternative. And from a "value to the team" perspective, Harden to the pen seems like exactly that to me.

 

Next year, Tazawa will not be ready for a MLB SP role. That's why they need a 5th starter in the first place.