What makes a good 2009?

[msubulldogs21]

Buchholz vs Joba is in the yankees favor IMO.

 

Would you like to elaborate a little on that?

[ORS]

Something tells me the answer is no....for now... because Tubby is busy applying a fresh coat of his own excrement right now.

[redsoxrules]

is joba only pitching 3 IP per start now?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Something tells me the answer is no....for now... because Tubby is busy applying a fresh coat of his own excrement right now.

:lol:

[jacksonianmarch]

The ebb and flow of young pitchers. Buchholz has been really good over his past few starts. He also sucked balls for a few starts prior to that. Prior to Joba's most recent run of s***, he was dominant too. I just think, stuff wise, Joba is better. That is why I would choose him.

[Dipre]

The ebb and flow of young pitchers. Buchholz has been really good over his past few starts. He also sucked balls for a few starts prior to that. Prior to Joba's most recent run of s***' date=' he was dominant too. I just think, stuff wise, Joba is better. That is why I would choose him.[/quote']

 

Stuff is not exclusively fastball, champ.

[jacksonianmarch]

When both are throwing at their best, Joba's slider is the best pitch that either of them throw. And while Buch's change and curve are very, very good, people seem to understate how good Joba's curve is as well. Regardless, all of this is moot if Joba continues to miss in and out of the zone.

[Dipre]

When both are throwing at their best' date=' Joba's slider is the best pitch that either of them throw. And while Buch's change and curve are very, very good, people seem to understate how good Joba's curve is as well. Regardless, all of this is moot if Joba continues to miss in and out of the zone.[/quote']

 

To rate a pitch, you can't only consider break.

 

If you can sit here with a straight face and tell me that Joba's slider/curve are better than Buch's slider/change, then there's really nothing more for us to discuss.

[TheKilo]

Outside of Buchholz's awful inning in Baltimore, which he could have gotten out of if he didn't have a statue at 3rd, he'd have a 3.5 ERA in 56 innings of work.

[example1]

When both are throwing at their best' date=' Joba's slider is the best pitch that either of them throw. And while Buch's change and curve are very, very good, people seem to understate how good Joba's curve is as well. Regardless, all of this is moot if Joba continues to miss in and out of the zone.[/quote']

 

 

When Joba's in the pen and throwing 97 mph his slider is devistating. Buchholz's changeup is absolutely filthy. It's a tough call which is better. As starters, Buchholz has better velocity and movement on his FB. His changeup is his best pitch and he has both a curveball and a newly-developed slider which is pretty sick in its own right.

 

In case you haven't watched his last few starts, he's been using his slider almost exclusively over his curveball to pretty good effect. When he needs to he can still throw the 12-to-6 curve, but the option of a high 80's breaking pitch is a really nice addition to his arsenal.

[yankees228]

When Joba's in the pen and throwing 97 mph his slider is devistating. Buchholz's changeup is absolutely filthy. It's a tough call which is better. As starters, Buchholz has better velocity and movement on his FB. His changeup is his best pitch and he has both a curveball and a newly-developed slider which is pretty sick in its own right.

 

In case you haven't watched his last few starts, he's been using his slider almost exclusively over his curveball to pretty good effect. When he needs to he can still throw the 12-to-6 curve, but the option of a high 80's breaking pitch is a really nice addition to his arsenal.

 

I'm not sure I would say that Buchholz has better velocity.

 

Here are their numbers from their most recent starts:

 

Chamberlain:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php?month=9&day=4&year=2009&game=gid_2009_09_04_nyamlb_tormlb_1%2F&pitchSel=501955.xml&prevGame=gid_2009_09_04_nyamlb_tormlb_1%2F&prevDate=94

 

Buchholz:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php?month=9&day=3&year=2009&game=gid_2009_09_03_bosmlb_tbamlb_1%2F&pitchSel=453329.xml&prevGame=gid_2009_09_03_bosmlb_tbamlb_1%2F&prevDate=93

 

Anyway, in terms of who is better right now, I would give the nod to Buchholz. The obvious problem with Joba at the moment is that he has such poor control. The other thing is that he is really only a two pitch pitcher right now. His curve, right now, is decent, but he really doesn't go to it that much. He change, on the other hand, is pretty bad.

[TheKilo]

Buchholz average velocity:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/3543_P_FA_20090903.png

 

Joba average velocity:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/2692_P_FA_20090904.png

 

Looks very similar, but seems to be a downward trend for Joba whereas Clay's been more consistent with the velocity.

[jacksonianmarch]

The trend is definitely down and should be expected to be down. This is Joba's first exclusively starting season since his time in college. He will surpass all innings marks he has ever seen. And, he will build off this season. He has been exactly what I predicted and expected him to be. A rookie, dealing with the grind of a full season. He's had runs where he's been lights out. He's had runs (and is currently enduring one) of having no control. This is expected and I expect him to improve off of it in 2010. That being said, for 2009, Joba can slip into the background for a bit since Pettitte is pitching so damn well. The Yankees will likely get the choice of the 8 or 7 game setup for the ALDS. In the 8 game setup, the yankees could start everyone on full rest until game 5, where Burnett or Pettitte would be asked to go on 3 days rest with the full complement of pitchers at the ready should he fail. The only games that Joba would be absolutely pencilled in for would be the Game 4's in the ALCS and WS should we get that far. That means, that these petty "rules" are really designed to get Joba ready for 2010 and beyond rather than this season. And I am on board with that.

[ORS]

8 game setup? Interesting, what's the tie breaker?

[Dipre]

The trend is definitely down and should be expected to be down. This is Joba's first exclusively starting season since his time in college. He will surpass all innings marks he has ever seen. And' date=' he will build off this season. He has been exactly what I predicted and expected him to be. A rookie, dealing with the grind of a full season. He's had runs where he's been lights out. He's had runs (and is currently enduring one) of having no control. This is expected and I expect him to improve off of it in 2010. That being said, for 2009, Joba can slip into the background for a bit since Pettitte is pitching so damn well. The Yankees will likely get the choice of the 8 or 7 game setup for the ALDS. In the 8 game setup, the yankees could start everyone on full rest until game 5, where Burnett or Pettitte would be asked to go on 3 days rest with the full complement of pitchers at the ready should he fail. The only games that Joba would be absolutely pencilled in for would be the Game 4's in the ALCS and WS should we get that far. That means, that these petty "rules" are really designed to get Joba ready for 2010 and beyond rather than this season. And I am on board with that.[/quote']

 

This has absolutely nothing to do with your claim that Joba is better than Bucholz.

[Dojji]

pretty common Jacko tactic really. If you talk yourself into trouble just throw up a wall o'text and hope no one's bored or masochistic enough to acutally read it.

[example1]

I'm not sure I would say that Buchholz has better velocity.

 

Here are their numbers from their most recent starts:

 

Chamberlain:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php?month=9&day=4&year=2009&game=gid_2009_09_04_nyamlb_tormlb_1%2F&pitchSel=501955.xml&prevGame=gid_2009_09_04_nyamlb_tormlb_1%2F&prevDate=94

 

Buchholz:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php?month=9&day=3&year=2009&game=gid_2009_09_03_bosmlb_tbamlb_1%2F&pitchSel=453329.xml&prevGame=gid_2009_09_03_bosmlb_tbamlb_1%2F&prevDate=93

 

I looked at seasonal averages from fangraphs.

 

Anyway, in terms of who is better right now, I would give the nod to Buchholz. The obvious problem with Joba at the moment is that he has such poor control. The other thing is that he is really only a two pitch pitcher right now. His curve, right now, is decent, but he really doesn't go to it that much. He change, on the other hand, is pretty bad.

 

 

I think Joba is going to be a very good pitcher, but he doesn't seem to have the makings of a great starter. To me he just screams elite setup man.

[example1]

Buchholz average velocity:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/3543_P_FA_20090903.png

 

Joba average velocity:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/2692_P_FA_20090904.png

 

Looks very similar, but seems to be a downward trend for Joba whereas Clay's been more consistent with the velocity.

 

I think it is important to point out that Clay should continue developing into his body. Currently he's pretty lean, but that won't last. We've seen the impact that putting on size has done for Lester's velocity and I expect that Buchholz will have a similar trajectory. Clay is built to be a starting pitcher.

 

Joba isn't very lean.

[ElMaestro]

I think Joba's velocity going slightly down has to be with a mechanics change, looking to save his arm for the long time. Maybe they saw him (I have read about it, but I confess that don't know a lot about this issue) and spotted possible injuries down the road for him if he continues pitching like he did on '07, so they took a more "conservative" approach, with a small loss of velocity.

[Dipre]

I think Joba's velocity going slightly down has to be with a mechanics change' date=' looking to save his arm for the long time. Maybe they saw him (I have read about it, but I confess that don't know a lot about this issue) and spotted possible injuries down the road for him if he continues pitching like he did on '07, so they took a more "conservative" approach, with a small loss of velocity.[/quote']

 

No.

 

Joba's mechanics were good even as a setup man, he's had problems maintaining his release point, and he kept flying open at the beginning of the season.

 

They've done virtually nothing to alter his mechanics.

[example1]

My sense is that if Joba can't hit 95 consistently as a pampered starter at this age then there's either something wrong with him or he's in bad shape. I can't find many good comparables to Joba; the ones who are listed at B-R are mostly relievers (Joel Zumaya being the most similar). It reaffirms my view that this guy is a reliever pretending to be a starter for a little while until Mariano leaves.

 

I'm actually a bit shocked that Joba has looked as mediocre as he has this season. I really expected good things of him, but he's been disappointing (or making me happy, depending on how you look at it). That velocity drop (as Kilo pointed out) is both alarming and consistent. I think it is only blind optimism that leads people to think that he's just saving up his arm strength. Perhaps that's true, but wouldn't the 97 mph fastball still rear its head in big situations?

 

His lack of command isn't a good sign, especially since he's actually more experienced now than he was a few years back.

 

Overall, I wouldn't be super excited if I were a Yankee fan. I would much rather have Buchholz moving forward, until they move Chamberlain into the bullpen.

[TheKilo]

Buch with another fantastic outing

[BoSox21]

I think he's definitely starting to turn a corner, mercifully

[Dojji]

Yeah, we got Beckett, Lester and Buchholz. If we could just get Daisuke back in order too I'd say we had a rotation.

[example1]

Buch with another fantastic outing

 

He looks less overpowering than he did in the past, but his stuff looks much more refined. He's a better pitcher, less of a thrower. His slider has been really impressive and his two-seamer is very hard for righties to contend with. He seems to have the same type of well-rounded repetoire that Lester does, more offerings than Josh Beckett has. He can work inside to lefties and righties and his slider becomes the strikeout pitch that the changeup is to lefties.

 

I'm hopeful that he will be a wild card in the playoffs for this club. Either way, he's absolutely the future of this club's pitching staff with Jon Lester. I think it is reasonable to think that Buchholz could actually be better than Lester, but that may be wishful thinking because Lester is so damn good.