Why we shouldn't freak out just yet.

[TheKilo]

whats he done outside of that ? whats he done since june 28th?

the guy was even awfull in that stretch you mentioned . he was getting lucky in that stretch , he always allowed a s*** load of baserunners but was lucky to get out of it wich explains the low ERA it was bound to catch up to him and thats why he's sucking right now

 

my mistake, I guess it was too much to ask of our fifth starter to be better than league average for more than two months during a four month season.

 

My bad.

[redsoxrules]

my mistake, I guess it was too much to ask of our fifth starter to be better than league average for more than two months during a four month season.

 

My bad.

 

season is only 2 months is it?

[Dipre]

Aren't you the guy who preaches how bad of a stat RBIs are because of how team dependent it is?

 

Who in Cincinnati and Washington get on base in front of Dunn?

 

You made the argument knowing i hate using them as a stat.

 

I'm sick of saying the same thing so might as well go with the flow.

 

Sport.

[Dipre]

Owned.

 

How's that scrotum taste?

 

you do know that Dunn has the 3rd best OPS in the NL right?

you wouldn't him as a DH?

 

I know, however, you do know the AL East is head and shoulders better pitching-wise than the NL East and Dunn could be exploited in this league?

[TheKilo]

season is only 2 months is it?

 

For a #5 starter, being better than league average for more than half the season is pretty good.

 

The #5 starter is a hole on every team, not just Boston.

[TheKilo]

 

 

I know, however, you do know the AL East is head and shoulders better pitching-wise than the NL East and Dunn could be exploited in this league?

 

Exploited how?

[Dojji]

He's pretty strikeout prone after all. I guess the theory is that a guy who strikes out a lot it doesn't take much better pitching than he's facing to shut him down completely.

[Dipre]

Exploited how?

 

 

You don't think such a change in the quality of pitching would seriously affect a hitter with as many weaknesses as Adam Dunn?

[CrespoBlows]

Dunn might have a slight dip in production, but he would still be an OBP and HR machine.

[Dipre]

Dunn might have a slight dip in production' date=' but he would still be an OBP and HR machine.[/quote']

 

I think he'd maintain his HR rate, it's the OBP's what'd probably really suffer.

[Dojji]

It doesn't take a huge dip in average to go from .360/.500 to .340/.450 though.

[CrespoBlows]

It doesn't take a huge dip in average to go from .360/.500 to .340/.450 though.

 

He's a career .385/.524. He once had an OBP below .360 when he was 23 years old.

[example1]

I think he'd maintain his HR rate' date=' it's the OBP's what'd probably really suffer.[/quote']

 

Why wouldn't this hold with Jason Bay? His OBP has actually increased going from the crappy NL East to the AL East, and he isn't nearly as good an OBP man historically, even in the same league as Dunn.

 

Taken another way, Dunn has put up OBPs of .386, .387, .388 and .388 in 4 of the past 5 seasons, extremely consistent. Even if we take away .010 points (a noticable dip), we're talking about a guy whose OBP is around .375 (I would expect higher), putting him in the same range as guys like Pedroia or Dunn. It seems to me that Dunn has mastered the art of figuring out which pitches thrown by major-league pitchers are strikes and balls and when to swing accordingly. Granted, he strikes out a lot, but he also deposits balls in the stands and takes walks. Two out of three ain't bad.

 

If you expect the HR rate to stay the same, and a reasonable regression seems to give him a .375 OBP, and if you add in the fact that Fenway will stretch some outs into doubles and some doubles into HRs, we could reasonably expect a .500 SLg, giving him an .875 OPS (OBP loaded, which is better). It wouldn't be far fetched to expect that he'd increase that a bit.

 

 

I don't think Dunn is the second-coming, and I think the FO have avoided him for this long for a reason. However, in an offseason without obvious offensive upgrades, a DH spot that (was) hurting that team and the need to keep the offense potent, Dunn makes some sense. He's not a perfect answer, but he's an answer, and at this point he has actually had a very nice and consistent career as a true, old-school power hitter who also happens to value taking walks.

[BoSox21]

His OBP has actually increased going from the crappy NL East to the AL East' date=' and he isn't nearly as good an OBP man historically, even in the same league as Dunn.[/quote']

 

I've seen this done a few times now and I still can't understand why everyone thinks the Pirates play in the NL East. Maybe it's my familiarity with the East since the Expos played in it but still...

[BSN07]

I've seen this done a few times now and I still can't understand why everyone thinks the Pirates play in the NL East. Maybe it's my familiarity with the East since the Expos played in it but still...

 

When I was a kid(I'm 26) the Pirates were still in the NL East. And I routinely still place them there, even though I really know they have been in the central for awhile now.

[Dipre]

I've seen this done a few times now and I still can't understand why everyone thinks the Pirates play in the NL East. Maybe it's my familiarity with the East since the Expos played in it but still...

 

Exactly right.

 

The NL Central had FAR better pitching than the East also.

 

Jason Bay is also a pretty dumb example, since he's obviously not nearly as vulnerable as Dunn.

 

That argument holds no water.

[Dojji]

When I was a kid(I'm 26) the Pirates were still in the NL East. And I routinely still place them there' date=' even though I really know they have been in the central for awhile now.[/quote']

 

Don't worry. The stadium plans will fall apart soon, the Marlins will move, and all will be as it should be.

[Dojji]

Why wouldn't this hold with Jason Bay? His OBP has actually increased going from the crappy NL East to the AL East' date=' and he isn't nearly as good an OBP man historically, even in the same league as Dunn. [/quote']

 

Jason Bay and Adam Dunn are separated by a whoppig .009 career OBP.

 

I wish people wouldn't use "walk-taker" and "OBP man" as if it was the same thing. A better term would be IsoD man, and there Bay isn't in Dunn's league by a long stretch (although good in his own right)

[CrespoBlows]

Exactly right.

 

The NL Central had FAR better pitching than the East also.

 

Jason Bay is also a pretty dumb example, since he's obviously not nearly as vulnerable as Dunn.

 

That argument holds no water.

 

The fall off between the NL Central and NL East isn't as pronounced as you claim it is. Dunn does have old player skills, so it wouldn't be surprising to see his production fall off faster as he ages, but he has 80+ power, and an extremely good eye. I don't see this collapse of production happening if he moves to the AL.

 

BTW, Dunn played in the NL Central for the majority of his career, and handled himself very well.

[example1]

I've seen this done a few times now and I still can't understand why everyone thinks the Pirates play in the NL East. Maybe it's my familiarity with the East since the Expos played in it but still...

 

Yeah, my bad. They used to be in the East (I think). Th erason I think they play there is because I don't give a damn about the Pirates and their existence in the bottom of the standings year after year has not forced me to care.

 

That said, isn't it an even better argument if we're trying to compare Dunn (with Cinci, NL Central) with Bay (NL Central) and their potential movement to the AL East?

[example1]

Jason Bay and Adam Dunn are separated by a whoppig .009 career OBP.

 

I wish people wouldn't use "walk-taker" and "OBP man" as if it was the same thing. A better term would be IsoD man, and there Bay isn't in Dunn's league by a long stretch (although good in his own right)

 

IsoD is nothing but walks. It is average subtracted from OBP, thus "other ways of getting on base".

 

The argument stands that Dunn has both more power than Bay and has gotten on base more. His avg is less and I would of course rather have Bay as an overall player, but people who are discounting anything Dunn has done are missing the forest for the trees here.

[example1]

Exactly right.

 

The NL Central had FAR better pitching than the East also.

 

Jason Bay is also a pretty dumb example, since he's obviously not nearly as vulnerable as Dunn.

 

That argument holds no water.

 

What does vulnerability have to do with it? If he were vulnerable he would make more outs.

 

If Dunn were to be used as a DH, it is reasonable to say that his VORP would be the most accurate way of seeing his value to the team (since it doesn't take defensive liability into account). Check his VORP against most players in the league. It's pretty darn good.

[Dipre]

The fall off between the NL Central and NL East isn't as pronounced as you claim it is. Dunn does have old player skills, so it wouldn't be surprising to see his production fall off faster as he ages, but he has 80+ power, and an extremely good eye. I don't see this collapse of production happening if he moves to the AL.

 

BTW, Dunn played in the NL Central for the majority of his career, and handled himself very well.

 

This is true, however, he also played in a shoebox of a ballpark while there, his OBP though, was still excellent while playing with the Reds.

 

About in-division play this year:

 

The Mets fell apart, the Marlins are Josh Johnsonn and?, the Phils play in a shoebox and had sub-par SPs until Lee got aboard.

 

Atlanta might be a whole other deal, but seriously.

[Dipre]

What does vulnerability have to do with it? If he were vulnerable he would make more outs.

 

If Dunn were to be used as a DH, it is reasonable to say that his VORP would be the most accurate way of seeing his value to the team (since it doesn't take defensive liability into account). Check his VORP against most players in the league. It's pretty darn good.

 

The power+OBP combo Dunn brings to the table cannot be denied, what i'm arguing is, how will he fare in a league (and division) with better pitching, if his OBP dips, then he becomes a one-toll ballplayer.

[example1]

The power+OBP combo Dunn brings to the table cannot be denied' date=' what i'm arguing is, how will he fare in a league (and division) with better pitching, if his OBP dips, then he becomes a one-toll ballplayer.[/quote']

 

And what I'm saying is that in a good hitters ballpark with a lineup that stresses getting on base, I see no reason to expect a huge drop off in production. The move of Jason Bay and his IMPROVEMENT over the previous season and approximatation of career norms as a Red Sox gives me optimism that the move wouldn't be too big of a challenge. There's also reason to be cautious, but at, what, $12m a year for one season, the risk isn't too enormous.

 

I also think that OBP represents plate control. I think that someone who manages a .400+ OBP in the NL is an EXCELLENT hitter regardless of his league. His career OBP is phenomenal, especially given his low batting average (the IsoD that Doj spoke of earlier). His plate control is excellent and his ability to discern strikes from balls shouldn't be too significant going from one league to another.

 

I didn't mean to derail this discussion into an Adam Dunn thread. I think the discussion is interesting because the idea of how previous numbers translate is an important one and one which is worth exploring regardless of the player. Personally, I think it is overblown a little bit.

[Dipre]

And what I'm saying is that in a good hitters ballpark with a lineup that stresses getting on base, I see no reason to expect a huge drop off in production. The move of Jason Bay and his IMPROVEMENT over the previous season and approximatation of career norms as a Red Sox gives me optimism that the move wouldn't be too big of a challenge. There's also reason to be cautious, but at, what, $12m a year for one season, the risk isn't too enormous.

 

I also think that OBP represents plate control. I think that someone who manages a .400+ OBP in the NL is an EXCELLENT hitter regardless of his league. His career OBP is phenomenal, especially given his low batting average (the IsoD that Doj spoke of earlier). His plate control is excellent and his ability to discern strikes from balls shouldn't be too significant going from one league to another.

 

I didn't mean to derail this discussion into an Adam Dunn thread. I think the discussion is interesting because the idea of how previous numbers translate is an important one and one which is worth exploring regardless of the player. Personally, I think it is overblown a little bit.

 

It is a very interesting conversation.

 

And you're right about the part that discipline means plate control, however, plate control does not equal contact ability, and i keep stressing just how weak a hitter Adam Dunn really is besides his home run power.

 

The man has more holes in his swing than any allegation OJ Simpson made during his trial.

[BSN07]

There have been a few players, Ortiz for example that have had pretty big holes in their swing. But Boston seems to really help correct those guys. I don't think it's too hard to believe that his contact skills will stay the same or become better playing with Boston.

 

I'd be all for Dunn being the DH. Then you have to think about what they are going to do with Papi. He probably has some value in a trade now. But maybe he's finally recovered and we could see him put up decent numbers next year. Or it could be another season of extreme hot and cold streaks. Hard to say. But I don't see the Sox having both on the roster though.

[Dipre]

There have been a few players, Ortiz for example that have had pretty big holes in their swing. But Boston seems to really help correct those guys. I don't think it's too hard to believe that his contact skills will stay the same or become better playing with Boston.

 

I'd be all for Dunn being the DH. Then you have to think about what they are going to do with Papi. He probably has some value in a trade now. But maybe he's finally recovered and we could see him put up decent numbers next year. Or it could be another season of extreme hot and cold streaks. Hard to say. But I don't see the Sox having both on the roster though.

 

Papi's Boston's best hitter right now.

 

But how long will that last?

[BoSox21]

Papi's Boston's best hitter right now.

 

But how long will that last?

 

Since May 20th, there are two guys who are in the top five in the AL in both HRs and RBIs. One is Mark Teixeira. Guess the other...

[Dipre]

Since May 20th' date=' there are [b']two[/b] guys who are in the top five in the AL in both HRs and RBIs. One is Mark Teixeira. Guess the other...

 

I know, champ.

 

In fact, Papi leads the AL in homers since June 1st.

 

What i meant was, is he completely healed from the knee and wrist issues?