Pitching options after 2009, a Yankee and Sox analysis

[jacksonianmarch]

So, we are now a week into August and both of our teams are in desperate need of at least one starter. The sox have a plethora of rotation options, but their best 2 are in need of some luck and some health in Wakefield and DiceK. The Yankees thought they had depth as well as a solid starting 5, but the hole that Wang left (make pun here...) has yet to be filled. So where does that leave the two teams after this season seeing as we have enough problems in the rotation this yr....

 

First, seeing as I posted this in the yankee thread, lets start with NY. Assuming 5 starting spots in a rotation, we start off with...

 

1. Sabathia

2. Burnett

3. Chamberlain

 

No problem, those three should be pencilled in for quite awhile in the top 3. The next guy to be pencilled in is Phil Hughes. Now there will be a caveat as there is with Joba this yr. Hughes will likely be limited to about 150IP in 2010. So, while Hughes would likely slot into a #4 position, his innings limit will relegate him to #5 duty. So, that leaves us with a #4 starter position open. Internal options outside of signing someone include....

 

1. Ian Kennedy- coming off aneurysm surgery, who knows how strong he will be, but he was solid in AAA prior to his injury and I do think he could be a solid major leaguer one day, just not sure thats in NY. Also would be on a serious innings limit

2. Kei Igawa- BLEH (although I think Igawa sees the majors in 2009 at some point)

3. Sergio Mitre- Bigger BLEH

4. Zach McAllister- probably our best pitcher in the minors, problem being, he has missed a month with tired arm, so tough to decipher.

5. Ivan Nova- in AAA now and doing okay, although I think he is not a big league starter, rather a reliever.

6. Alfredo Aceves- good idea aside from the fact that his versatility in the bullpen may be the crux of our relief corps and moving him out of there would cause serious problems going forward.

7. Chien Ming Wang- yes, I have him as the #7 option. He never was right after the foot injury and his weak lower body led to an upper body injury. No word on what the shoulder looked like, but anytime you mix shoulder surgery in with weak lower body and a rumor of lack of work ethic, then you could have a train wreck coming. He could be a nice surprise if the sinker comes back, but we cannot count on him coming into 2010.

 

Needless to say, we dont have any teflon rookies hanging out in the minors who are banging down the door. So someone will have to be signed or resigned for this to happen.

 

Now for Boston....

 

#1 and #2 are set for 2010, although Beckett will likely be asking for a RIDICULOUS raise as 2010 is the last yr of his contract. After that though, the questions arise

 

1. Beckett

2. Lester

3. Matsuzaka

 

#1 and #2 are the only two spots etched in stone for 2010 IMO. Aside from them, there are a TON of confounders. The first is DiceK. The guy we saw at the beginning of the yr lacked both the arm strength and the stuff that DiceK of a yr ago fashioned. And continually missing time with shoulder ailments makes me think something surgical is going on in there. Assuming he has a clean bill of health, he fits into the #3 spot, although his presence would necessitate a deep pool of backup options. So, lets pencil in DiceK for 2010

 

The #4 spot is wide open. You have Wakefield who was having a rennaissance before going back on the DL and who knows if he can still do it with his back the way it is. Lets consider him in the pool of resigning or FA options. Outside of Wake, Smoltz and Penny will be gone. You have Buchholz who for now would slot into the #4 position and Bowden would have to be the favorite for the #5 spot internally if you dont re-up Wakefield. So, lets look at the pool of options internally for the #4 and #5 spots

 

1. Clay Buchholz- out of options and running out of time, I assume he will be the #4 starter if he is not traded.

2. Michael Bowden- played well in AAA and with the sox, he is certainly a viable option assuming he isnt donning a Blue Jay jersey in 2010.

3. Junichi Tazaka- pitching well in AAA also, but we have all seen the jump to the bigs be a major obstacle for players. He is the first option on this list to not have seen the bigs.

4. Felix Doubront- probably a stretch since he isnt even dominating AA, but he has to be on the list since he will be in Pawtucket to start 2010.

 

The list of options is pretty deep 1-3 in terms of sheer talent, but remember, the sox have 2 holes to fill internally.

 

So, what are the options. For the Yankees, they could always come to the table with Andy Pettitte, who is once again giving NY exactly what they need. With all the incentives, Andy stands to make 10-12 mil for his 2009 efforts and a similarly positioned contract could get him back in fold.

 

For the red sox, there is the easily usable 4mil option on Wakefield. He would stabilize the back of the rotation, but would also give the sox 2 guys with significant injury concerns in the rotation that will also include a novice pitcher.

 

In terms of free agent options....

 

Your best bet is Jon Lackey. He is a FA and talks between him and the Angels have broken down. Lackey is a surefire top of the rotation pitcher who pitches well when the game is on the line and also well in the playoffs. His problem though, is his durability. After 5 consecutive seasons of 198IP or more, he has started out two straight yrs on the DL and looks to have his second consecutive season without being able to crack the 170IP mark. He turns 31 in October, so he should be available for hire, although he will be VERY expensive.

 

After Lackey, the next pitcher on the list would be Rich Harden. If Lackey is an injury concern, Harden is the posterchild for great arm and limited health. Harden is on pace for his first 150+IP season since 2004 but he has been getting hit at a much higher rate in 2009 than he had previously. He might be letting up a little bit to avoid injury. Regardless, Harden stands to make good money although most of it would be in the form of incentives.

 

Another name that is a FA right now is Ben Sheets. He was a ridiculously durable player before the Brewers essentially broke him down. Now, he can hardly get through the yr without surgery. Assuming he is repaired and strong, he could be an interesting choice.

 

Probably one that will be getting kicked around in these parts is Jarrod Washburn. Boras is the agent and Washburn is having a ridiculous season, so he wont come cheap. But he is a playoff veteran who would offer both durability and production out of the #4 slot in the rotation, a serious need for both teams

 

Other guys out there to fill a need....

 

Justin Duchsherer- solid starter, but also cannot stay healthy

Erik Bedard- see above

Doug Davis- seems to require the NL due to lack of stuff and command

Jose Contreras- LOL

Jon Garland- another guy better suited for the NL

Tim Hudson- will be an interesting follow over the offseason. The Braves have a 12 mil option on him, but coming off TJS and in a smaller market makes it likely that Hudson (34 yrs old) will hit the market.

Brett Myers- coming off hip surgery, Myers will likely see short terms and incentive based contracts, but he has the stuff of champions and could be a solid pitcher, assuming he stays healthy.

Joel Piniero- a Duncan reclamation project who is dominating, but do you want to go down that road again?

Brad Penny- I dont want him, do you?

John Smoltz- yr 2 after shoulder surgery might be better??

 

Regardless, IMO, Lackey and Washburn are the big ones to follow. Sheets and Harden would be okay on limited risk deals. And Hudson could be a wild card. That being said, the options are there, but they sure as hell are not plentiful.

 

So then there is trade, and we know who could swing the balance in this matchup.

 

1. Roy Halladay- would likely take less than it would have taken at the deadline, but he will still require a king's ranson. That being said, I think both teams could swing it depending on how the rest of the MiLB season goes.

2. Felix Hernandez- I put him on here solely to tell you he wont be dealt this offseason

3. ??? Could be anybody, but we all know there are 3-4 pitching trades from teams nobody expected to deal, so it is always a possibility that a John Danks or a Mark Buerhle comes available for the right price.

 

So, there you have it. The synopsis of the pitching options for 2010...during the 2009 season. Not sure why I did it, but I thought about the free agent options and wanted to get it into post format.

[BoSox21]

JfC youre bored....

 

how can you do this but not make AFL picks?

[Dipre]

Make.Your.Picks.Or.Give.Up.Your.Team.

[TheKilo]

I';ll say it again, his team is open for the taking. No one has taken it.

[Dipre]

I';ll say it again' date=' his team is open for the taking. No one has taken it.[/quote']

 

I shall look for a taker.

[BSN07]

I bet Beckett gets a reasonable raise. Less then what Jacko is thinking. 4/5yrs, 12-15M per.

 

 

The Sox won't offer him CC/Johan $. They will try and get him at what they think is a valuable price. Beckett being the way he is, is likely to sign and not put up much of a fuss. And go about his business as usual.

[jacksonianmarch]

You are delusional if you think Beckett resigns for 12 mil per. Absolutely delusional. If you think about it, Beckett might have more of a claim to big money than CC. He's got two rings. Beckett is on his way to being in the running for a Cy Young. And, he's already been the ace on the team for 3 yrs. He will ask for the moon. He hits FA after his yr 30 season. He's gonna get a 6-8 yr deal and will definitely crack 20mil a yr. If Burnett gets 18 mil a yr after his age 32 season, you better believe Beckett will surpass that

[jacksonianmarch]

I bet Beckett gets a reasonable raise. Less then what Jacko is thinking. 4/5yrs, 12-15M per.

 

 

The Sox won't offer him CC/Johan $. They will try and get him at what they think is a valuable price. Beckett being the way he is, is likely to sign and not put up much of a fuss. And go about his business as usual.

 

also, Beckett likes being "the man". And being underpaid is not what the man will be all about.

[CrespoBlows]

The economy might ensure that Beckett doesn't get more than $15 million. Coupled with inflationary concerns, the Red Sox are going to get Beckett on a nice bargain.

[jacksonianmarch]

the market is coming up. Think about it. Tex, Burnett, and CC got market price for players at their level (plus the new york exchange fee of about 2 mil a yr more than anyone else would pay). Beckett hits FA after 2010, which will likely be a period of significant financial growth

[CrespoBlows]

the market is coming up. Think about it. Tex' date=' Burnett, and CC got market price for players at their level (plus the new york exchange fee of about 2 mil a yr more than anyone else would pay). [/quote']

 

According to who? The economy is still collapsing, and hasn't reached the trough yet.

 

Beckett hits FA after 2010, which will likely be a period of significant financial growth

 

lol no chance

[BSN07]

the market is coming up. Think about it. Tex' date=' Burnett, and CC[/b'] got market price for players at their level (plus the new york exchange fee of about 2 mil a yr more than anyone else would pay). Beckett hits FA after 2010, which will likely be a period of significant financial growth

 

They all signed with the Yankees fool. No other team is paying those prices.

[jacksonianmarch]

you dont think the yankees will be looking for a starter in 2011?

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, Derek Lowe got 4 yrs 60 mil from the Braves at age 36. The Mets will be looking for pitching. The Angels will be looking for pitching. And the Dodgers are already looking for pitching. You are delusional if you think Beckett gets less than Burnett. Delusional

[CrespoBlows]

you dont think the yankees will be looking for a starter in 2011?

 

The NYC-Steinbrenner alliance will pay some serious dividens in the next two years. I wouldn't be surprised if Beckett joins the Yankees.

 

Perhaps Boston should let him walk, and use their cash on Mauer.

[CrespoBlows]

Also' date=' Derek Lowe got 4 yrs 60 mil from the Braves at age 36. The Mets will be looking for pitching. The Angels will be looking for pitching. And the Dodgers are already looking for pitching. You are delusional if you think Beckett gets less than Burnett. Delusional[/quote']

 

The economy is going to be much worse when Beckett hits the market. He might get more than Burnett did in nominal salary, but I won't put his real salary beyond $18 million.

[BSN07]

I'm just saying. If he signs an extension this off season, it will be less then what you think. I think you will be surprised. That's just my opinion of the matter. I believe Beckett to genuinely likes Boston. I know people say this a lot. I usually stay clear of this train of thought. But in this case I believe it could possibly be true.

 

 

If he hits the FA market, there's no telling what he will get.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm just saying. If he signs an extension this off season, it will be less then what you think. I think you will be surprised. That's just my opinion of the matter. I believe Beckett to genuinely likes Boston. I know people say this a lot. I usually stay clear of this train of thought. But in this case I believe it could possibly be true.

 

 

If he hits the FA market, there's no telling what he will get.

 

I agree with that sentiment to a point. If he signs this offseason, prior to hitting the FA market, he will be leaving a lot of money on the table. That is always the case. I also think he likes Boston. At the same time, I do not think he settles for less money. Guys of his ilk typically dont.

[BSN07]

A Beckett quote,

 

It doesn't matter to me. I make plenty of money. I'm starting Opening Day, though. ... There are a lot of people who make more money than me who I had better years than. I'm happy where I'm at.

[jacksonianmarch]

What is he supposed to say? f***, I shouldnt have signed that contract so now they better pay me? You are too gullible my friend. Also, why should anyone take a "home town discount" and stay with the second strongest (fiscally) franchise in baseball? That makes no sense.

[BSN07]

What is he supposed to say? f***' date=' I shouldnt have signed that contract so now they better pay me? You are too gullible my friend. Also, why should anyone take a "home town discount" and stay with the second strongest (fiscally) franchise in baseball? That makes no sense.[/quote']

 

I only quoted it to stir you up:D

 

Just for fun, what do you think his next deal is. 1. If he signs an extension. 2. If he hits the free agent market.

[jacksonianmarch]

If he signs an extension, I see the sox offering 5yrs 90mil with a team option for a 6th yr at 20 mil that vests after a certain amount of IP. If he hits the FA market, I see a 6-7 yr deal at 20 mil per yr.

[Dipre]

If he signs an extension' date=' I see the sox offering 5yrs 90mil with a team option for a 6th yr at 20 mil that vests after a certain amount of IP. If he hits the FA market, I see a 6-7 yr deal at 20 mil per yr.[/quote']

 

From who?

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, etc etc etc. You dont think that someone would pony up Santana or CC type money for Beckett? If you dont, then you are in denial

[example1]

Yankees' date=' Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, etc etc etc. You dont think that someone would pony up Santana or CC type money for Beckett? If you dont, then you are in denial[/quote']

 

I'm not sure where I stand on this "argument". Beckett is probably worth a lot of money. If the Sox are smart they will sign him this offseason to a big deal. My guess is he will get more than the 12m that some people here are projecting, but he won't get anything like CC or Santana. The Yankees and Mets in no way represent what the market is. if they are interested then of course they could make those big offers and land Beckett. If the Yankees got Beckett the Sox would be pretty much screwed.

 

All that aside, I would like to see the Sox get Lackey this offseason. He seems like a douche and is someone I would have a hard time rooting for, but he's a pretty consistent pitcher who works effeciently and could be a #3 or #4 on this team.

 

The 2009 Sox team may ultimately find that Dice-K was their achilles heel. They needed at least a reasonable #3 option and he's been nothing of the sort. I'm hopeful that with his full rehab and strengthening he could come back and be a better than average pitcher but who knows.

[Dipre]

Yankees' date=' Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, etc etc etc. You dont think that someone would pony up Santana or CC type money for Beckett? If you dont, then you are in denial[/quote']

 

I don't think someone other than the Yankees will give Sabathia-type money to ANYONE.

[example1]

I don't think someone other than the Yankees will give Sabathia-type money to ANYONE.

 

Certainly not to someone other than someone with Santana's background.

[Dipre]

Certainly not to someone other than someone with Santana's background.

 

Jacko seems to think everyone operates under the Yankee's standards of financial freedom.

 

And he's wrong.

[CrespoBlows]

Yankees' date=' Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, etc etc etc. You dont think that someone would pony up Santana or CC type money for Beckett? If you dont, then you are in denial[/quote']

 

By Yankees, do you mean NYC taxpayers?

[jacksonianmarch]

All that you asked for was who would offer him 20 mil a season. I gave you my opinions and I can guarantee the yankees would be in the bidding