The KiloMetric Returns

[Dipre]

I will agree with you on something here. There is no way he continues his BAA of .235 vs righties. That wont be sustainable. But the BAA and really low BABIP vs lefties with his stuff is acceptable and expected. Take a look at any left handed reliever worth their salt and look up their BABIP vs lefties. Go for it. None of them would be anywhere near .300. All will be lower. Hence why they are relievers. AND, BABIP is a stat that is expected to regress to a mean over a significant amount of time and based on a mean of all pitchers around baseball. So it isnt about luck when you talk about:

 

A- a part time pitcher

B- a situational part time pitcher

 

The rules dont apply. Have you taken statistics? Do you know what a confounder is? Its like trying to perform a study on populations and lung cancer without controlling for smoking. Lefties hit lower vs lefties. Without correcting for that confounder, the idea that a situational lefty regresses to a pre-set mean based on all the pitchers in the game is bogus.

 

Please check his k/9 and contact rate and tell me his BABIP is sustainable, even if lhe owns lefties.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am saying his BABIP vs lefties is sustainable. His BABIP vs righties is not since righties have the advantage vs lefties

[Dipre]

I am saying his BABIP vs lefties is sustainable. His BABIP vs righties is not since righties have the advantage vs lefties

 

Neither is, champ.

 

Not when lefties are making contact on you at that rate.

[TheKilo]

Quit mucking up my thread. Jacko, if you can post enough to be a dick here you can make your picks in AFL. I'm getting tired of people being skipped constantly.

 

Anyways.

 

Last year's KiloMetric was conservative in the predictions of the Red Sox (92 predicted, 95 actual), Rays (94 predicted, 97 actual), and Yankees (89 predicted, 90 total). In the first version of the KiloMetric, I was also pretty conservative with the Yankees predictions. Are we noticing a trend here?

 

This season, normalcy has been restored to the AL East. The Sox and Yankees are battling it out for the top spot, but the Rays have kept it close enough to make it interesting.

 

This is arguably the most crucial stretch of the season for the Boston Red Sox, which will make these predictions even more interesting.

 

Let's begin by taking a look at the team's home and away splits:

 

[table]Team|Home Record|Away Record|Home Games Left|Away Games Left

Tampa Bay|34-18|24-30|29|27

New York|35-17|28-25|29|28

Boston|35-17|27-25|29|29[/table]

 

Interesting that every team has 29 home games remaining. Sox and Yankees have equivalent home records and TB is just one game back. Where Tampa has lost ground is their poor road record, but they have the fewest games remaining on the road for all three teams.

[TheKilo]

Now let's have a look at each team's Pythagorean records, through yesterday's games:

 

[table]Team|Runs Scored|Runs Allowed|Actual Record|Pythag. Record|Difference

Tampa|544|469|57-48|60-45|-2

New York|581|510|63-42|59-46|+4

Boston|548|452|62-42|61-43|+1[/table]

 

Tampa was really hurt by a poor start. Their run differential has been pretty good all season, but the bullpen magic that was there last year has not been there this season. The Yankees and Sox are each outplaying their pythagorean record, but the Yankee's +4 mark shows there's a potential for some regression there. For the first time in the history of the KiloMetric, the Sox are actually outperforming their pythag at the time the predictions were made.

 

The last important factor I consider is strength of schedule the rest of the way for each team, noted below:

 

[table]Team|Opp. Win %

Tampa|.527

New York|.515

Boston|.514[/table]

 

It appears Tampa has quite the hole to climb out of. 5 games in the hole with 57 games to go, and the most difficult schedule for the rest of the season? All signs point to Tampa being on the outside looking in come October.

 

Team predictions to follow...

[TheKilo]

THE TAMPA BAY RAYS (58-48)

 

[table]Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record

8/4-8/5|BOS|1-1|59-49

8/7-8/9|@SEA|2-1|61-50

8/10-8/12|@LAA|1-2|62-52

8/14-8/16|TOR|2-1|64-53

8/18-8/20|BAL|3-0|67-53

8/21-8/23|TEX|2-1|69-54

8/24-8/26|@TOR|2-1|71-55

8/28-8/31|@DET|2-2|73-57

9/1-9/3|BOS|2-1|75-58

9/4-9/6|DET|2-1|77-59

9/7-9/9|@NYY|2-2|79-61

9/11-9/13|@BOS|1-2|80-63

9/14-9/17|@BAL|2-1|82-64

9/18-9/20|TOR|2-1|84-66

9/22-9/23|SEA|2-0|86-66

9/25-9/27|@TEX|1-2|87-68

9/28-10/1|BAL|3-1|90-69

10/2-10/4|NYY|2-1|92-70[/table]

 

92 wins for the Rays? Close the season on a 34-22 run? It's certainly doable, especially if Longoria comes out of his funk (which I fully expect this week against Boston). It will be interesting watching this team come in for the stretch run.

 

Most Important Players:

 

Evan Longoria - Sporting a line of .218/.320/.412/.732 since June 1, Longoria needs to snap out of his funk is Tampa has any dreams of playing in October.

 

David Price - Dynamic young left handed fireballer, having what can only be seen as mixed results at the big league level. If he can put together a string of quality starts in a row, it will increase Tampa's chances even more.

[TheKilo]

THE NEW YORK YANKEES (63-42)

 

[table]Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record

8-4/8-5|@TOR|1-1|64-43

8-6/8-9|BOS|3-1|67-44

8/10-8/12|TOR|2-1|69-45

8/13-8/16|@SEA|3-1|72-46

8/17-8/19|@OAK|2-1|74-47

8/21-8/23|@BOS|1-2|75-49

8/25-8/27|TEX|2-1|77-50

8/28-8/30|CWS|1-2|78-52

8/31-9/2|@BAL|3-0|81-52

9/3-9/6|@TOR|2-2|83-54

9/7-9/9|TB|2-2|85-56

9/11-9/13|BAL|2-1|87-57

9/14|LAA|1-0|88-57

9/15-9/16|TOR|1-1|89-58

9/18-9/20|@SEA|2-1|91-59

9/21-9/23|@LAA|2-1|93-60

9/25-9/27|BOS|2-1|95-61

9/28-9/30|KC|3-0|98-62

10/2-10/4|@TB|1-2|99-63[/table]

 

In my opinion, the Yankees are the best team in the American League East. I think a 35-22 mark from here on out is more than doable, especially with the schedule they have for the rest of the season.

 

Most Important Players:

 

Alex Rodriguez - It seems that the Yankee offense goes when ARod goes. When he slumps, it seems the whole team's offense slumps. The question becomes, how does ARod's hip hold up over the final 57 games?

 

Joba Chamberlain - He has put it together in his few starts past the All Star break. Can he be the reliable third starter that New York needs him to be down the stretch? I think he will (and not just because I drafted him in AFL), but I believe he has made the leap that Red Sox fans saw Jon Lester make last season. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees deal with his innings cap.

[TheKilo]

THE BOSTON RED SOX (62-42)

 

[table]Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record

8-4/8-5|@TB|1-1|63-43

8-6/8-9|@NYY|1-3|64-46

8/10-8/13|DET|2-2|66-48

8/14-8/16|@TEX|2-1|68-49

8/18-8/20|@TOR|2-1|70-50

8/21-8/23|NYY|2-1|72-51

8/24-8/27|CWS|3-1|75-52

8/28-8/30|TOR|2-1|77-53

9/1-9/3|@TB|1-2|78-54

9/4-9/7|@CWS|2-2|80-56

9/8-9/9|BAL|2-0|82-56

9/11-9/13|TB|2-1|84-57

9/15-9/17|LAA|1-2|85-59

9/18-9/20|@BAL|2-1|87-60

9/21-9/24|@KC|3-1|90-61

9/25-9/27|@NYY|1-2|91-62

9/28-9/30|TOR|2-1|93-63

10/1-10/4|CLE|3-1|96-66[/table]

 

Three teams in the ALE with 90+ wins? You betcha. I think the Sox put up a 34-24 record the rest of the way and finish behind the Yankees in the division, but capture the Wild Card during the final week of the season.

 

Most Important Players:

 

Victor Martinez - Theo's big trade deadline acquisition was brought in here to bring some life into a punchless offense. Martinez is vitally important for the remainder of the season not just because of his offensive skills, but his positional flexibility. Having Martinez on the roster should result in a more fresh Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell come October.

 

Clay Buchholz - The wunderkind, the no-hit wonder, needs to put up or shut up over these last 58 games. The Sox need him to pitch like a reliable starter if they have dreams of their third World Championship this decade. He needs to be a QS machine starting now. Kid gloves time is over Clay, show RSN what you are made of.

[TheKilo]

As always, feedback and comments are appreciated.

[Dipre]

It sounds about right.

 

But i think you're not giving the Yankee 'pen enough importance.

 

They've over performed, specially Phil Coke.

[TheKilo]

Coke's what, the 4th or 5th guy out of the pen now?

 

That'd be like the Sox being concerned about Manny Delcarmen or Takashi Saito. Important sure, but not enough to swing the needle one way or another.

[Dipre]

Coke's what, the 4th or 5th guy out of the pen now?

 

That'd be like the Sox being concerned about Manny Delcarmen or Takashi Saito. Important sure, but not enough to swing the needle one way or another.

 

It's important if your starters aren't going 7 consistently.

 

And i said, specially Coke.

[pres]

your red sox/yankees predictions are different.

 

for the yankees, on 9/25-9/27, in ny you say they will take 1 of 3

for the red sox, on 9/25-9/27, in ny you say they will also take 1 of 3

 

its pretty significant because if the red sox take 2 of 3, both teams (according to your predictions) will end the season with a 97-65 record, which will give the divison to the sox based on the season series between the two clubs.

[TheKilo]

Bah, nice catch. I think the Yankees take 2/3 there because the series is in NY, and thereby take the division.

[TheKilo]

It's important if your starters aren't going 7 consistently.

 

And i said, specially Coke.

 

What team has their starters going into the 7th consistently?

[yankees228]

It's a little too late for me to really analyze this and post my comments. Couple things though. I know they're not in the ALE, but if you're up to it you should probably do one for Texas as well. Also, do you really think the Yankees go 3-1 against LAA the rest of the year, including winning the series when they go back out there?

[Dipre]

What team has their starters going into the 7th consistently?

 

That's exactly the point.

 

Imagine where this team would be if MDC wasn't effective?

 

A lot of games can be lost in the 6th or 7h innings.

 

And let me tell you one thing, 4 inning Joba could return at any given moment, and that would s*** on their bullpen.

[TheKilo]

It's a little too late for me to really analyze this and post my comments. Couple things though. I know they're not in the ALE' date=' but if you're up to it you should probably do one for Texas as well. Also, do you really think the Yankees go 3-1 against LAA the rest of the year, including winning the series when they go back out there?[/quote']

 

I'll post a Texas one in the morning. I don't think they have the pitching to stay in this til the end.

 

I think they could be 6-8 games back by September 1.

 

As for the Yanks v. LAA, I do - past performance is not an indicator of future success/failure. I think the Yanks are a much better team than the Angels, their current hot streak notwithstanding.

[Dipre]

I'll post a Texas one in the morning. I don't think they have the pitching to stay in this til the end.

 

I think they could be 6-8 games back by September 1.

 

As for the Yanks v. LAA, I do - past performance is not an indicator of future success/failure. I think the Yanks are a much better team than the Angels, their current hot streak notwithstanding.

 

Bear with me here, but maybe the reason the Angels own the Yankees is because the Yankees can't control their running game.

 

If Girardi's smart, he'll run Fatty Molina out there all three games the next time they meet.

[yankees228]

I'll post a Texas one in the morning. I don't think they have the pitching to stay in this til the end.

 

I think they could be 6-8 games back by September 1.

 

As for the Yanks v. LAA, I do - past performance is not an indicator of future success/failure. I think the Yanks are a much better team than the Angels, their current hot streak notwithstanding.

 

Believe me, I'm not one of those people that believe the Yankees can't beat the Angels. Also, I don't think they're as good as they seem right now. Regardless, I just don't see them taking a series out there, and when I mapped out the Yankees' remaining games, I had them losing that series (1-2) and losing the home game.

 

However, I tend to be a bit pessimistic, and I was trying to be conservative.

[TheKilo]

They lost that other series because Joba and Pettitte blew cock, won't expect that again.

[jacksonianmarch]

The teams were much different the last few times we met. Our offense was hit or miss, our bullpen was in complete shambles aside from Mo and outside of CC, the rotation was awful. Right now, 4 of our starting pitchers have been rolling of late (outside of Burnett's lone terrible start). Our offense has been hitting well. And outside of the 2 abysmal pen days, the pen has been rather solid over the last 2 months. This is gonna be a fun series

[Dojji]

It should be indeed -- your season may hang on it.

[ORS]

The teams were much different the last few times we met. Our offense was hit or miss' date=' our bullpen was in complete shambles aside from Mo and outside of CC, the rotation was awful. [b']Right now, 4 of our starting pitchers have been rolling of late[/b] (outside of Burnett's lone terrible start). Our offense has been hitting well. And outside of the 2 abysmal pen days, the pen has been rather solid over the last 2 months. This is gonna be a fun series

Since July 1, 2009:

 

[table]Pitcher|ERA

Fat Sabby|4.89

Horseface|4.82

You know Sergio?|7.90[/table]

 

For this to be true, you need to convince us you'd say two of these guys are rolling if they put up the same stats pitching for the Sox.

[TheKilo]

Based on feedback from some posters, here's the KiloMetric for the Texas Rangers:

 

[table]Team|Home Record|Away Record|Home Games Left|Away Games Left

Texas|37-21|22-24|23|35[/table]

 

[table]Team|Runs Scored|Runs Allowed|Actual Record|Pythag. Record|Difference

Texas|501|457|59-45|56-48|+3[/table]

 

[table]Team|Opp. Win %

Texas|.509[/table]

 

Most road games of any contender, under .500 record on the road are the negatives for their chances, but on the positive side they have the easiest schedule coming home. Let's take a look at their schedule the rest of the way:

 

THE TEXAS RANGERS (59-45)

 

[table]Date|Opponent|Series Outcome|Record

8/4-8/6|@OAK|2-1|61-46

8/7-8/9|@LAA|1-2|62-48

8/11-8/13|@CLE|2-1|64-49

8/14-8/16|BOS|1-2|65-51

8/17-8/20|MIN|2-2|67-53

8/21-8/23|@TB|1-2|68-55

8/25-8/27|@NYY|1-2|69-57

8/28-8/30|@MIN|2-1|71-58

8/31-9/2|TOR|3-1|74-59

9/4-9/6|@BAL|2-1|76-60

9/7-9/9|@CLE|2-1|78-61

9/11-9/13|SEA|1-2|79-63

9/14-9/16|OAK|2-1|81-64

9/18-9/20|LAA|1-2|82-66

9/21-9/24|@OAK|2-2|84-68

9/25-9/27|TB|2-1|86-69

9/28-10/1|@LAA|1-3|87-72

10/2-10/4|@SEA|2-1|89-73[/table]

 

89 wins for the Rangers is what I am predicting. even though they have the easiest schedule coming in, they have a couple of really crucial series in August and they play LAA seven times in September. I don't think they're quite there yet but they could be a force to be reckoned with next year.

 

Most Important Players:

 

Josh Hamilton - One year after he wowed everyone with an incredibly successful season, Hamilton has been injured and maddeningly inconsistent. In order for Texas to make a serious push, he needs to be the middle of the order threat he was last season.

 

Neftali Feliz - The young fireballer made his major league debut last night, and whether it be in the bullpen or sliding into the starting rotation, he has the potential to make a huge impact on the Rangers going forward, similar to David Price last season.

[TheKilo]

Update after the last series:

 

[table]Team|Predicted Record|Actual Record|Differential

Tampa|59-49|60-48|+1

New York|64-43|65-42|+1

Boston|63-43|62-44|-1[/table]

[jacksonianmarch]

Since July 1, 2009:

 

[table]Pitcher|ERA

Fat Sabby|4.89

Horseface|4.82

You know Sergio?|7.90[/table]

 

For this to be true, you need to convince us you'd say two of these guys are rolling if they put up the same stats pitching for the Sox.

 

I say of late and you pick an arbitrary date 6 weeks ago. I say four and you pick the fifth guy. I see, nice logic. I thought you were smart?

 

Joba- last 3 starts- 3-0 21.2IP 1ER 16 baserunners 19K 0.41ERA 0.73WHIP

Pettitte- last 4 starts- 1-1 26.2IP 7ER 27 baserunners 29K 2.36ERA 1.10WHIP

Burnett- aside from his last start (which was the caveat I used in my post), he has been rolling since June 1- 7-2 63.1IP 16ER 82 baserunners 2.27ERA 1.30WHIP

Sabathia- he's been the worst of them. Last 4 games, 26.2IP 33H 13ER 5BB 19K for a 4.38ERA and a 1.42WHIP

 

Now, I made the caveat that the sox top 2 have been untouchable and they really skew the stats of the sox starters. Outside of Lester and Beckett, here are your starters of late...

 

Buchholz - last 4 starts 19.1IP 13ER 39 baserunners 6.05ERA 2.02WHIP

Smoltz- last 3 starts 16.2IP 17ER 27 baserunners 9.17ERA 1.62WHIP

Penny- last 4 starts 22.1IP 18ER 33 baserunners 7.27ERA 1.48WHIP

 

So yeah, I would consider the yankees top 4 rolling and the sox starters outside of Lester and Beckett scuffling. It isnt rocket science there captain

[Dipre]

I say of late and you pick an arbitrary date 6 weeks ago. I say four and you pick the fifth guy. I see, nice logic. I thought you were smart?

 

Joba- last 3 starts- 3-0 21.2IP 1ER 16 baserunners 19K 0.41ERA 0.73WHIP

Pettitte- last 4 starts- 1-1 26.2IP 7ER 27 baserunners 29K 2.36ERA 1.10WHIP

Burnett- aside from his last start (which was the caveat I used in my post), he has been rolling since June 1- 7-2 63.1IP 16ER 82 baserunners 2.27ERA 1.30WHIP

Sabathia- he's been the worst of them. Last 4 games, 26.2IP 33H 13ER 5BB 19K for a 4.38ERA and a 1.42WHIP

 

Now, I made the caveat that the sox top 2 have been untouchable and they really skew the stats of the sox starters. Outside of Lester and Beckett, here are your starters of late...

 

Buchholz - last 4 starts 19.1IP 13ER 39 baserunners 6.05ERA 2.02WHIP

Smoltz- last 3 starts 16.2IP 17ER 27 baserunners 9.17ERA 1.62WHIP

Penny- last 4 starts 22.1IP 18ER 33 baserunners 7.27ERA 1.48WHIP

 

So yeah, I would consider the yankees top 4 rolling and the sox starters outside of Lester and Beckett scuffling. It isnt rocket science there captain

 

Because your "of late" is a kindergarten grade stupid SSS.

 

Stop making stupid comments.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ridiculous as usual Dipre. As usual.

[Dipre]

Ridiculous as usual Dipre. As usual.

 

Ridiculous is relying on SSS to create posts that offer nothing but unnecessary use of bandwith on the site.

 

"Rolling" lol.