Buyers or Sellers

[a700hitter]

With the trading deadline quickly approaching, I thought it would be interesting to have a thread to discuss which teams will be buyers, which will be sellers and what they'll be buying or selling. Please let's try to have this not turn into an unsubstantiated rumor thread.

 

Mets-- Buyers. They need to reinforce this team, because they can't afford a collapse two years in a row before they move to their new stadium. They'll be looking for a RH corner OF. They are very short on RH hitters. The bullpen looks pretty well set. If Pedro and El Duque encounter problems in the next couple of weeks, they could be looking for a middle of the rotation starter.

 

Yankees-- Neither Buyer nor Sellers. I think they are committed to re-tooling this year. Unless they can fleece the Pirates for Nady and Marte or some other team, they will make only minor moves.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with you a700. I think we will certainly be in the discussion for a lot of players, but I dont see us getting deals done. We dont need pen help aside from a lefty specialist and the only lefties available also have the boon of being closers, ie they are gonna cost a lot. We could use a bat, but the only bats worth getting are gonna cost a lot as well and we potentially have 2 .320 hitters coming back in short order. We could use a starter, but our rotation right now has 3 solid pitchers and 2 guys pitching serviceably with our ace coming back by Sept 1, so we dont have a dire need for a front line guy. And CC and Harden are gone now anyway. So I dont see any area as a dire need right now. Plus with the fact that CC, Harden, and Sheets will likely reach FA this yr as well as Teixeira, I dont think the deals we would make for them are worth it when we can get them for a first rounder and money in the offseason. Plus, we will likely be seeing a bunch of first rounders and supp picks coming our way with Type A FAs like Abreu, Giambi, Pettitte, Mussina, and Farnsworth (who was on the cusp last yr and with his excellent performance of late likely pushed himself into A status) and Type B FAs like Hawkins, so losing our 1st and 2nd rounders in FA signees wont hurt as much.

[BoSox21]

the buyers are probably pretty obvious but considering the late runs the Phillies and Rockies made last year, the sellers might not be so obvious

[ORS]

I'm skeptical they'll get picks for Giambi, Abreu, or Pettitte. Giambi is a huge risk to accept arb. He's making $22M this year, and you don't take a pay cut in arb. Given his hard suck in multiple years of this contract, he won't get offers anywhere near that level of pay. Pettitte is more likely to either retire or resign with the Yankees than he is to play elsewhere. I think they need to bring Abreu back.

[ORS]

On the topic of the thread, I think the Dodgers will be in the market for pitching and I wouldn't be shocked to see the Rays get another bat.

[TheKilo]

Sox need bullpen help (duh)

[TheKilo]

I agree with you a700. I think we will certainly be in the discussion for a lot of players' date=' but I dont see us getting deals done. We dont need pen help aside from a lefty specialist and the only lefties available also have the boon of being closers, ie they are gonna cost a lot.[/quote']

 

True.

 

We could use a bat, but the only bats worth getting are gonna cost a lot as well and we potentially have 2 .320 hitters coming back in short order.

 

Damon and...?

 

We could use a starter, but our rotation right now has 3 solid pitchers and 2 guys pitching serviceably with our ace coming back by Sept 1, so we dont have a dire need for a front line guy. And CC and Harden are gone now anyway. So I dont see any area as a dire need right now. Plus with the fact that CC, Harden, and Sheets will likely reach FA this yr as well as Teixeira, I dont think the deals we would make for them are worth it when we can get them for a first rounder and money in the offseason. Plus, we will likely be seeing a bunch of first rounders and supp picks coming our way with Type A FAs like Abreu, Giambi, Pettitte, Mussina, and Farnsworth (who was on the cusp last yr and with his excellent performance of late likely pushed himself into A status) and Type B FAs like Hawkins, so losing our 1st and 2nd rounders in FA signees wont hurt as much.

 

Yes you'll have money to spend, but I think the Yankees hold on to everyone you mentioned except Giambi when they make their run at Tex.

[Mr Crunchy]

based on raw #s and fielding mark texeira is turning into a poor mans youkilis for 5xs the dough.

he may indeed rip up that right field in yankee stadium....but then again we dont know the new parks dimensions yet do we??

with arod approaching immortality perhaps they make left field shorter?

[ORS]

They are keeping the dimensions the same.

[a700hitter]

It is obvoius that the A's are sellers, getting rid of Harden and Blanton. What about the Texas Rangers? I think they'll be looking to sell... maybe Young?

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm skeptical they'll get picks for Giambi' date=' Abreu, or Pettitte. Giambi is a huge risk to accept arb. He's making $22M this year, and you don't take a pay cut in arb. Given his hard suck in multiple years of this contract, he won't get offers anywhere near that level of pay. Pettitte is more likely to either retire or resign with the Yankees than he is to play elsewhere. I think they need to bring Abreu back.[/quote']

 

If they opt out of Giambi's contract, I have a hard time thinking he stays in NY even with arb being offered. Remember, the Yankees wanted to send him to AAA and then tried to cut him. So I dont think he stays even if the money is good. Also, I dont have a problem with him coming back for a yr either. He obviously still has the bat speed and the eye, so getting him back on a 1 yr deal wont be the worst thing in the world.

 

You are right on Pettitte in theory. But I do think pettitte picks up a ball next yr and it will likely be with us. I dont see us resigning Abreu or Mussina to be honest.

 

Abreu has been god awful when you look at where he stands compared to his career. Unless he has a strong second half (like last yr), I dont see us offering him a contract. At the same time, he is lefty, he will hit 20HR will have 20SBs and will have over 100RBI so I dont think another team desperate for power will shy away from giving him a multi yr deal. So I see 2 picks coming from him.

 

Mussina also. I dont see us resigning him. He'll get a 2 yr deal somewhere and I think he continues to pitch now that 300 is potentially reachable, especially in the NL.

 

As for Farnsworth, he is putting himself in the running for a lower tier closer next yr. Teams like ATL, FLA, STL, ANA and many others may look at him to close. And with us offering arb, he should see similar money but longer yrs elsewhere. I dont really see much risk in him accepting arb, as he has been booed repeatedly in NY and probably wont consider resigning even if the bigger money is in NY.

 

So while we do have some guys leaving, I put all those names on the list assuming some would stay. If not, I dont see much reason in offering them all arbitration. The only guy I'd be hesitant offering arb to is Hawkins, but if we use him as sparingly as he is being used now, I dunno if he'd want to stay.

[jacksonianmarch]

based on raw #s and fielding mark texeira is turning into a poor mans youkilis for 5xs the dough.

he may indeed rip up that right field in yankee stadium....but then again we dont know the new parks dimensions yet do we??

with arod approaching immortality perhaps they make left field shorter?

 

Tex is a notorious second half player with a career OPS 100 points greater after the AS break. I dunno if that is a good thing though. All of the teams he has been on have been out of the race by the AS break and this yr is no different. So maybe he is a pileon player. OTOH, he was solid for the Bravos after the deal last yr. I'd assume Tex ends the yr with his standard, near .300 AVG, 30+ bombs and an OPS approaching .900 while playing GG d

[jacksonianmarch]

True.

 

 

 

Damon and...?

 

 

 

Yes you'll have money to spend, but I think the Yankees hold on to everyone you mentioned except Giambi when they make their run at Tex.

 

Matsui was the other .320 hitter. But it is looking more and more like he may be done. From a medical perspective, his continued effusions sound like a piece of meniscus is floating in there and needs to be removed. But I am not examining him and I am not an orthopod. Just an educated guess.

[msubulldogs21]

What about the Texas Rangers? I think they'll be looking to sell... maybe Young?

 

For once, I don't think the Rangers are sellers. They've got a pretty decent team this year. Nothing outstanding, but they are 4 games over .500 and are competitive. If anything they might try to add some pitching help which they always need, but most likely I think they stand pat.

[YAZMAN]

But I am not examining him and I am not an orthopod.

 

 

Correct, you are a gastropod.

[VA Sox Fan]

Correct' date=' you are a gastropod.[/quote']

 

:thumbsup:

[castigs850]

I dont know where the rumors section went? but i guess i'll post this here.

 

First off i want to add a disclaimer stating that what i just heard makes no sense for our current situation. However some "expert" on ESPN was just talking about the redsox being sick of Manny being Manny (again) and that we may be looking to trade him. This man said that it's possible that a trade to the mets could be possible due to Omar Minaya's mancrush on Ramirez, he said that an outfielder named Fernando Martinez. That is the part that doesnt make sense, our best hitter on a team that could use another bat, for a kid that wont participate this year and in the future does not have the ability to replace Manny's bat.

 

Anyway does anyone think there is a chance that he knows what he is talking about and that we are actually so sick of manny that we may be once again looking to deal him?

[schillingouttheks]

Isn't this the same thing that gets said year after year after year? Especially with the Mets?

[Jayhawk Bill]

I dont know where the rumors section went? but i guess i'll post this here.

 

First off i want to add a disclaimer stating that what i just heard makes no sense for our current situation. However some "expert" on ESPN was just talking about the redsox being sick of Manny being Manny (again) and that we may be looking to trade him. This man said that it's possible that a trade to the mets could be possible due to Omar Minaya's mancrush on Ramirez, he said that an outfielder named Fernando Martinez. That is the part that doesnt make sense, our best hitter on a team that could use another bat, for a kid that wont participate this year and in the future does not have the ability to replace Manny's bat.

 

Anyway does anyone think there is a chance that he knows what he is talking about and that we are actually so sick of manny that we may be once again looking to deal him?

 

I think that ESPN has been reading too many message board posts full of crazy things that start rumors.

 

For Jose Reyes:

 

Julio Lugo and...

 

Justin Masterson and Manny Ramirez? :dunno:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OK, Fernando Martinez, Mets' top 2008 prospect per BP:

 

1. Fernando Martinez, OF

DOB: 10/10/88

Height/Weight: 6-1/190

Bats/Throws: L/R

Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Dominican Republic

2007 Stats: .111/.200/.333 at Rookie-Level (3 G); .271/.336/.377 at Double-A (60 G)

 

Year In Review: Martinez is a high-ceiling outfielder, and was holding his own as an 18-year-old in Double-A before finally getting shut down with a hand contusion that was bothering him all year.

The Good: To hit .271 in Double-A when you are as old as most high school seniors is an impressive feat. Martinez has outstanding bat speed and tremendous power potential to go with a rapidly improving approach, and could develop into a middle-of-the-order force if everything falls right. He's a good athlete with average speed and a solid arm.

The Bad: Martinez is far more about what can be at this point. He puts on a show in batting practice, but he's yet to bring his power into game situations. The Mets have rushed him up through the minors, but injuries have limited him to just 139 games over the two years of his career. While he's playing center field now, his range and instincts are well short of what is needed to play the position at the big league level, and he'll move to a corner--likely before he gets to the big leagues.

Fun Fact: In 16 games batting leadoff for Binghamton, Martinez hit .343, compared to a .243 mark when he hit third.

Perfect World Projection: Scouts have varied opinions on Martinez, but there are a good number out there who see him as an impact player when he can stay healthy and develop.

Timetable: Martinez' breakneck pace through the minors will slow down finally in 2008, as he'll likely return to Double-A, but he'll nevertheless likely be the youngest player at the level. A 2009 big-league debut is a distinct possibility.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7114

 

From before the 2007 season:

 

PECOTA seems much more bullish this year on a handful of very young prospects. That could be because of some tweak or another I made to the system, but more likely it’s because we have a group of players this year who simply don’t come around every day. First and foremost among these is Fernando Martinez, who is the only player in the PECOTA minor league database (since 1997) to have registered at least 100 at-bats in High-A ball at the age of 17. Sure, he wound up being overwhelmed there – a .193/.254/.387 batting line in about 130 at-bats. But that came on the heels of a superior .333/.389/.505 performance in Hagerstown, and if you consider the hypothesis that the High-A performance deserves a bit of a mulligan because Martinez who was pushed so quickly...actually, I’m glad that we aren’t considering that, because it might have short-circuited PECOTA. The variance here is crazy high, and Martinez is not a sure thing (his #2 comparable is Josh Hamilton), but the upside might be even higher.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5977

 

2008 AA stats: .287/.331/.414, FRAA +4 in CF That's much better as a fielder than he had been previously.

 

MLE of 2008 AA stats: .258/.294/.390 Heck, he's just 19 years old.

 

Peak projection in MLB using 2008 AA stats and his age: .284/.336/.449 On average, he's a quad-A starting outfielder or a great platoon/bench outfielder--but that takes into the average his chance of washing out.

 

2008 PECOTA projection for age 25: .264/.338/.394 He's grown this year regarding power potential.

 

Best (not closest) PECOTA comparables: Bobby Abreu, Felix Pie.

 

***

 

If Big Papi comes back, Manny is a defensive liability in LF...I can't see this as a one-for-one, but I can see Fernando Martinez as an element of a trade involving Manny.

 

I don't see any trade unless Minaya is willing to overpay, though.

[jacksonianmarch]

And if Minaya was unwilling to include Martinez in a deal for the best pitcher in baseball, why would he throw this kid into the pot for a 20 mil over the hill troublemaker who cannot play defense at the MLB level anymore? This rumor is stupid.

[Jayhawk Bill]

And if Minaya was unwilling to include Martinez in a deal for the best pitcher in baseball' date=' why would he throw this kid into the pot for a 20 mil over the hill troublemaker who cannot play defense at the MLB level anymore? [/quote']

 

1) Buyers often pay more in deadline trades than they do during the winter.

 

2) Santana was a long-term commitment with great chance of injury during the course of the contract; Manny is a known quantity who might be available in return for picking up just a 2009 option.

 

3) Martinez would've been just part of a package of top-level prospects for Santana; he'd be a cornerstone of a deal for Manny, probably the only prospect, along with a little talent that Boston could use in 2008.

 

4) The Mets are in a tight pennant race, and Manny has a rep for clutch performance in October, including the 2004 World Series MVP Award.

 

This rumor is stupid.

 

5) If Minaya doesn't win in 2008, it's rumored he'll be fired, and Manny Ramirez would offer the Mets more in 2008 than Fernando Martinez could.

 

From the GM's perspective, it seems to look less stupid. :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

I should have put a disclaimer on there. The rumor is stupid, but not unbelievable. It wouldnt be the last time a Mets GM made an attempt to save his ass with a top prospect for aging vet move. How'd that Kazmir deal workout again?