Any relief for the relief corps?

[jacksonianmarch]

So the sox go from the best pen in the AL last yr to one of the worst. If it werent for their AS closer, Papelbon, they would be the worst. So that begs the question, what should be expected of the rest sans Paps?

 

Well, I made a short segment on Okajima before. In his first 2 months, he had numbers very similar to last seasons. But since the start of June, he has been absolutely awful. 11 of his last 12 inherited runners have scored and 12 of the last 15, to go along with his 9+ ERA and 2.42WHIP since June 1. Does he need a break? Last yr he hit a dead spot and the sox DL'd him for nearly a month. When he returned, he wasnt what he was at the beginning of the yr but he wasnt as bad as he was before he hit the DL. That may need to be considered again. Only this time, the signs arent there. Last yr, his FB velocity dropped prior to his DL stint. This yr, his FB velocity hasnt changed much, but the splitter has damn near disappeared, leaving him pretty much a 1 pitch pitcher. And an 87 mph fastball isnt gonna get anyone by a MLB lineup without a complementary off speed pitch. It would also seem that last night was evidence of Francona's lack of confidence in him. He was brought into a 4-1 game in the 6th rather than his customary 8th inning duty.

 

As for MDC he was dominant to start June. But for a guy who looked like the successor to Oki, he has some disturbing stats. For an 8th inning guy, you want him to be durable and be able to throw 2 or 3 days in a row while on a winning streak. Well, he has given up 7ER in 4.2IP when throwing on 0 days rest. When he has had at least 1 days rest, his ERA is 3.33. Therefore, while he does seem to be a solid reliever in the making, using him on back to back days is a bad idea and hence eliminates him from being a go to setup man.

 

As for Hansen, we kinda know he isnt the answer right now. 25% of the time, he allows multiple runs. Add that to his 6.2BB/9IP and his 1.62WHIP and he looks more like a mopup guy than anything else. He should not have seen action in the game last night because he implodes far too often.

 

Javier Lopez has actually had a damn good yr by his standards, and he may be the best middle reliever the sox have right now. 2.20ERA with a solid split lefties vs righties. He walks a little bit too many, but he is generally around the plate and he doesnt get his hard. His sidearm delivery from the left may make Tito reticent to use him in setup duties, but the numbers this yr point to him potentially being the best equipped for the job.

 

David Aardsma has been a godsend this yr for the sox, but he isnt your ideal 8th inning guy either since he walks 6 batters per 9 as well.

 

So where does the answer lie? If Oki or Delcarmen find themselves, then the infusion of Aardsma and Lopez into more defined matchup 7th and 8th inning roles gives the sox a formidable, if not solid bridge to papelbon. Unfortunately for the sox, right now Lopez is their best RP option and the rest are having trouble with control in and out of the zone. And when you are dealing with guys who havent established themselves as elite relievers, poor control typically will send them on a bad path.

 

One thing I have proposed to sox fans on here with mixed messages is moving Masterson to the pen and bringing up Buchholz to start. If you look at the numbers, Masterson is at 92IP for the yr, which essentially means that halfway through the yr he is halfway to his IP limit. Good for a team not making the playoffs, but the sox have playoff aspirations and if they make it there, will exceed his IP limit in the starting role. Buch, OTOH is on pace to miss his IP limit by a lot, so bringing him up to start and having Masterson in a 2 time a week, 1+ IP role will meet both their IP demands as starters. Plus, I think with Bowden on the way up as well, the sox needs are going to be more in the pen anyway and Masterson's delivery, power sinker and power slider will make him very difficult one time around the order out of the pen.

 

Now what if that doesnt work or doesnt happen. Lets say the sox want to keep Masterson at the big league level in the rotation. What do they change? Well, Colon should be back in a couple weeks, but I dont think he profiles well as a reliever due to his fragility. Also, Buchholz is more of a complete pitcher, someone who would be wasted out of the pen. The other options pondered before also dont look to be cutting the mustard. Daniel Bard was someone who the sox expected to make a fast rise once fully converted to the pen. While they did skip him a level, he hasnt dominated to the degree that they would have liked. While I do see him getting promoted to AAA soon, I dont think he is someone who is going to be rushed. Especially since this is the first yr he is actually throwing strikes. The other option was Bryce Cox. People were saying last yr that he could have closed out of ST. After getting promoted to high A, he has been unspectacular out of the pen. 19H and only 9K in 17IP. He is gonna need some work too.

 

Both of these guys continue to be considered high end arms, but I think both need to show the sox something before they make it to the bigs. Cox needs to show he can dominate better competition and Bard needs to show he can consistently locate. While Bard is more advanced and his numbers indicate he might be ready soon, I think the sox may take the more careful approach since they dont want to take a couple steps back on a kid who has taken so many steps forward this yr.

 

So now that I have discussed the sox internal options, what is out there?

Forget the ALE, the only team out of it is Toronto and they wont trade in division

 

In the ALC: The royals may be willing to part with Mahay who has had a hell of a yr. But for a lefty power reliever, the sox will be expected to part with something of value. Unfortunately for trade partners, the royals 2 best pen arms, Nunez and Soria, are young and under royals control for awhile. i dont see either being moved.

 

As far as the Guardians are concerned, I dont see them moving Betancourt or Perez since both are in their long term plans and the Guardians will likely be contenders next season

 

Seattle doesnt have much that is useful. Putz isnt gonna be moved because he'dbe sold low and the only other guys worth dealing for are Morrow and young guys of his ilk.

 

In the NLE, guys like Jon Rauch and Rafael Soriano may be available.

 

In the NLC, I dont see much that would be worth the cost. Maybe Marte, but the pirates asked us for Hughes in return, so I dont think Theo will pay something like that for an old, declining power lefty reliever

 

And in the NLW, we all know about Fuentes. Why is he such a nice commodity? Well, he is an older lefty reliever who is pitching at Coors. His H/A splits show he might actually benefit from leaving Coors as well. He dominates lefties, but also gets hit pretty well by righties meaning that he may not be suited for full innings like the sox need. He's also soon to be 33 and there have been rumors that his stuff is declining.

 

Hence, unless the sox are willing to unload some high level prospects, I dont see much from the outside. And on the inside, the only real option I see is moving Masterson to the pen. If that doesnt work, well, we all know theo is creative. i am sure we'd see Coco be moved for something, and maybe a team like Pitt or Colo could use a speedy, switch hitting CFer. We'll see.

[Paradisecity]

I believe that you will in fact see masterson in the pen ASAP. Olney appropriately commented that Bucholz was probably starting in the minors the same day as Masterson's majors start for a reason.

[TheKilo]

A bit reactionary, IMO. Delcarmen and Hansen were awful last night but had a solid June, and Aardsma was good as well.

[Jayhawk Bill]

So where does the answer lie?

 

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=bos

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, Masterson is gonna get his shot. Lets just say for arguments sake that he is just okay in yr 1 out of the pen. Who do the sox get?

 

In Colorado, Fuentes will be available. Left handed former closer who relies on deception. He would take one top prospect to pry since he is both left handed and a setup/closer. Lars Anderson may be the name most brought up since Helton is getting on in yrs and a kid with that kind of power could be ridiculous in Coors. Plus with Youks turning into an AS caliber and GG caliber 1b, Anderson is becoming redundant.

 

In Pittsburgh, Marte is showing he can handle full innings as a closer/setup man. The pirates would have less use for Anderson since 1b is occupied by LaRoche, but his contract is up soon, so they might use him. The Pirates need relief pitching in return though, and may ask for a package surrounding one of their disappointing SP (Johnson or Richardson this yr) and one of their higher flying relievers (Cox or Bard).

 

In Atlanta, Mike Gonzalez might be available although he is under control through 2009. The Braves are actually a bit devoid of pitching right now and might be hard pressed to accept anything less than Bowden this yr since they could run him through the trade mill next yr too.

 

In Washington, Jon Rauch is blooming into a top level relief pitcher. He is under the Nats control until 2010, so they would need to be blown away to deal him. But he is the name surfacing a lot on the ESPN rumor mill and he is also getting better as his career gets on. He's a very imposing figure (6'9") and throws beebees. His 1.01 WHIP and 1BB every 6IP totals this yr would fit nicely in front of Paps. Right now, the price is very high and might climb towards a Michael Bowden level. But the Nats need so much that a package deal with Reddick, Bard and a mid level pitcher could get this done.

 

In Oakland, Huston Street has also been said to be available. I guarantee the first person he asks for is Anderson.

 

Heath Bell in SD may also be available, but the Padres own him for a long time. The Padres have a dreadful system, so a package deal would make more sense.

 

Thats about it. With the pen as it is, the sox are setting up for a deadline fleecing. Their middle relief is so porous that the excellent rest of their team will take the fall for it. Without an upgrade, I am hard pressed to think of them winning anything this yr.

[VA Sox Fan]

There is already a thread called "bullpen concerns" that this could have fallen under jacko. Dork.

[jacksonianmarch]

if you read that thread you will see that it is a compilation of the forum crap and not actually a thread about the bullpen. It ends with Manny Incident II.

[TheKilo]

IMO, the Sox are better off going with internal options to fix the bullpen (Masterson, Smith, etc.) than trading for a reliever.

 

The lack of consistency in middle relief production is not worth spending any sort of major prospects on - so say no to Marte and Fuentes.

 

Jon Rauch is an intriguing option who may come cheaply.

[CrespoBlows]

IMO, the Sox are better off going with internal options to fix the bullpen (Masterson, Smith, etc.) than trading for a reliever.

 

The lack of consistency in middle relief production is not worth spending any sort of major prospects on - so say no to Marte and Fuentes.

 

Jon Rauch is an intriguing option who may come cheaply.

 

I take what Gammons says with a grain of salt, but apparently the Nats were asking for a Sabathia like package for Rauch.

[TheKilo]

lolwut

 

Forget that then.

[das11209]

I may be in a minority(what's new) - but I think that we got lucky last year with Oki. Hitters got shocked with that weird delivery and after the initial shock - they figured out - hey this guy is not that good.

 

Either way - what ever we got out of him last year itself was more that what we paid for.

[ORS]

I'm skeptical it was "luck" as you call it for a couple of reasons. One, he was good up until about mid-May this year, and the first part of the year is primarily against division foes, who saw him the most last year. So those most likely to have had the epiphany you are suggesting, didn't. Two, he faced several teams from the NL who had never seen him before in interleague play this year, and he was not very good (awful against Houston and Cincy). Unfamiliarity played no role either.

 

What has been reported has confirmed what I and many other posters have noticed. His split-change stopped becomming a pitch he could rely on for some reason. This was the vital 3rd pitch that made him so successful last year and early this year. He's a two pitch pitcher right now and should be a strict platoon LOOGY until he can reclaim the effectiveness of that pitch, which was his main weapon against RH hitters.

[Mr Crunchy]

oki carried a hi 3 era in japan

japanese pitchers tend to do well early on in their careers and i think the funky delivery and the way they hide the ball is the reason for their success.

we didnt expect another sub 2 era but we didnt expect futility either

perhaps we over worked him?

timlin has been f***ing useless,delcarmen and hansen very inconsistant and these 2 guys are pitching for their careers now,they have a lot to gain by stepping up but neither has grabbed the bull by the horns and taken over the setup role...with everything in line to repeat this fall id hate to see it blown due to the fact that we dont have any kind of middle relief.

that said,the schedule is favorable and i have no doubt they win the east.

can they win the entire thing?

ya,i still think theyre the most balanced team in baseball with the best front man in becks and now a young lefty who has been dazzling all year long.

[Cocos Disciples]

Rauch was dealt to Arizona today for Emilio Bonifacio.

[jacksonianmarch]

Good move for both sides. Bonifacio was considered to be the heir apparent at 2b with O-dog being a FA after the yr. Rauch, OTOH, gives them the closer they desperately need in a division that is easily winnable.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox pen get them the win yesterday, although by the hair of their chin.

[TheKilo]

Sox pen get them the win yesterday' date=' although by the hair of their chin.[/quote']

 

Really? This happened?

[VA Sox Fan]

Really? This happened?

 

Yeah, really? A win is a win.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, since I made this post:

 

Okajima has posted 9 consecutive scoreless appearances. This spans 7.1IP.

Aardsma has now thrown 2 innings this month.

Lopez is finally reverting to the mean, a WHIP of 2 this month.

Delcarmen has now allowed 9ER in his last 9IP

Hansen has now allowed 7ER in his last 5IP

Timlin has now pitched 6+IP and allowed 1ER since he got back from the DL

[a700hitter]

Well, since I made this post:

 

Okajima has posted 9 consecutive scoreless appearances. This spans 7.1IP.

Aardsma has now thrown 2 innings this month.

Lopez is finally reverting to the mean, a WHIP of 2 this month.

Delcarmen has now allowed 9ER in his last 9IP

Hansen has now allowed 7ER in his last 5IP

Timlin has now pitched 6+IP and allowed 1ER since he got back from the DL

I guess they are due to turn things around.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still think they need a dominant pen arm to add to their pen. If they can change the pecking order, they can be effective. But they lack that one shutdown reliever that they can bring in prior to Paps when trouble is on the line. As is, their best middle reliever is Oki and he is awful at holding inherited runners.