Jon Lester - Has he turned a corner?

[TheKilo]

What do we have in Jon Lester right now?

 

Since 4/29 v. Toronto (not including today):

 

5-1, 64.2 IP, 46 K, 19 BB, 2.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

 

What's changed?

 

BB/9:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4930_P_season_full_2_20080621.png

 

Plus, it seems he has introduced two new pitches, a two seam fastball and a changeup.

 

Is it the quicker pace? People have mentioned the quicker pace has helped him.

 

What's the difference between this year and last?

[Jayhawk Bill]

What do we have in Jon Lester right now?

 

What's the difference between this year and last?

 

[table] Stat | Last Year | This Year

GB% | 34.4% | 48.3%

HR/FB% | 13.0% | 8.9%

HR/G | 1.41 | 0.66[/table]

 

More ground balls means fewer fly balls; fewer fly balls, plus fewer home runs per fly ball, means fewer home runs. Fewer home runs means WAY fewer runs.

 

That, plus the reduction in BB you cite above, accounts for the difference.

[ksushi]

[table] Stat | Last Year | This Year

GB% | 34.4% | 48.3%

HR/FB% | 13.0% | 8.9%

HR/G | 1.41 | 0.66[/table]

 

More ground balls means fewer fly balls; fewer fly balls, plus fewer home runs per fly ball, means fewer home runs. Fewer home runs means WAY fewer runs.

 

That, plus the reduction in BB you cite above, accounts for the difference.

 

That and the reduction in BB could be related. If he is throwing strikes earlier in the account, slipping into fewer hitters counts, and getting early contact, that could and probably does mean on top of walking hitters less often, he is around the zone more often making hitters swing at close pitches. His strike percentage is only up two percent from last year (like 60 to 62%, I believe), not a drastic improvement, but I have seen a difference in his pitching, and I think its reasonable to assume that he has turned a corner in terms of location. Pitches out of the zone are less obvious take pitches, and early strikes have forced hitters into swinging at them, getting him some weak outs early in the count and forcing hitters to swing before they can wait him out for the free pass. It might be more or less the same amount of strike, but it is the when and where that has made all the difference.

 

He is getting early strikes with his offspeed and making hitters go out of the zone for anything straight.

[TheKilo]

After today...dare I say...all star?

[JShramek]

He's only had 1 bad start all year!

[Cityofchampions33]

He's had one terrible start all year, a lot of his April was rough however. Since then though, only 4 starts with 3 runs or more, the rest all shut down, quality pitching. Another noticeable change? In May and beyond no games with more than 3 BBs, proving a lot of what has been said, but shows the theory to be even more linear with his success.

[Rdsxmbnt]

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c65/rdsxmbnt/lesterchart.jpg

 

Since May 1st: In 78.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 2.08 BB/9, 6.23 K/9

[BoSox21]

his walks have declined steadily in each month of the season. In his five June starts, he allowed a total of 3 walks over 32 1/3 innings. how insane is that?!

[ksushi]

Hitters are realizing that they can't wait him out anymore. Now he doesn't have to pound the zone, cause hitters will swing, now he has to be close to the zone because as we saw against the yanks, they're swingin early. That is going to really open things up for him. Look for a huge second half from Lester.

[YAZMAN]

Lester is quality.

[yeszir]

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c65/rdsxmbnt/lesterchart.jpg

 

Since May 1st: In 78.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 2.08 BB/9, 6.23 K/9

 

Did you make that graph?

[ksushi]

Lester is quality.

 

Post of the year ladies and gentleman. Post of the year.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Did you make that graph?

 

yep

[yeszir]

yep

 

Sweet! nicely done