ELO

[Jayhawk Bill]

From best to worst, Major League Baseball:

 

Red Sox

Angels

Cubs

Phillies

Blue Jays

Yankees

Athletics

White Sox

Guardians

Braves

Rays

Twins

Diamondbacks

Mets

Cardinals

Rangers

Brewers

Tigers

Marlins

Dodgers

Astros

Reds

Orioles

Padres

Rockies

Pirates

Mariners

Giants

Royals

Nationals

 

Wow. Why would I call the 29-30 Yankees the sixth-best team and the 35-25 Cardinals the fifteenth-best team?

 

These are yesterday's standings by BP's ELO system. International soccer has used an ELO system for years to comparatively rank teams that mostly play in leagues of dissimilar quality but occasionally play each other. The formulae are complex, there's a big factor for recent winning streaks, and there's a central tendency adjustment between seasons, but I consider it the best way we currently have, given the unbalanced schedule, of comparing teams.

 

Note that only two of the top nine teams are NL teams--despite the hype about "the NL has all the young stars," maybe those young stars look so good because the opposition is so weak. Also, note that four of the top 11 teams and three of the top six teams are from the AL East, where they beat each other up frequently (and literally ). The Yankees would be the best team in either the AL Central or the NL West.

 

Right now, despite recent injury challenges, the Red Sox rank as the best team in MLB. With current issues regarding Big Papi, Dice-K, Manny, Jacoby, and perhaps suspension issues with Coco Crisp (sure to be appealed to give Boston time to recover), it's good to note that the Red Sox have both a lead and a dominant competitive position.

 

Let's see how this goes.

[yeszir]

Is the formula for this publicly released?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Is the formula for this publicly released?

 

Yes!

 

Here's the World Football web page that gives the basic math of an ELO System:

 

http://www.eloratings.net/system.html

 

And here's how Nate Silver adapted that system to MLB:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5247

 

The highest year-ending ELO ranking of this decade was that of the 2004 Boston Red Sox; that team ranked eighth since 1960; here are the top ten teams since 1960, based upon year-end scores:

 

1. 1998 Yankees

2. 1970 Orioles

3. 1961 Yankees

4. 1975 Reds

5. 1999 Yankees

6. 1995 Guardians*

7. 1976 Reds

8. 2004 Red Sox

9. 2001 A's**

10. 2002 Angels

 

* Lost World Series

** Lost ALDS

 

Note the dominance of the AL, especially the AL East, and particularly the Yankees. FWIW, the next three slots on the list are AL teams, too.