Gammons on Lugo.

[BSN07]

Gammons on Baseball Tonight, mentioned in one of his segments that the Sox could be close to deciding on dealing Lugo. He said the FO is starting to wonder if they can win another pennant with Lugo's sub par field work.

 

We all new this could happen at some point. Question now is, who matches up for Lugo? I know J will say SD and to try and get Greene. This could be a nice option. Some here will look at his low BA and be turned off. But this kid has power, and a great glove. Put him in a hitters park like Fenway, and that will come up.

 

For this deal to work, I would imagine that this would be a 3 team deal.

 

Anyone got any trade ideas? Heres one,

 

Boston trades Coco to SD, Lugo to CHC, CHC sends a prospect/ or Izturis to SD, Sox recieve Greene plus maybe a BP arm.

[BudLight]

Gammons on Baseball Tonight, mentioned in one of his segments that the Sox could be close to deciding on dealing Lugo. He said the FO is starting to wonder if they can win another pennant with Lugo's sub par field work.

 

We all new this could happen at some point. Question now is, who matches up for Lugo? I know J will say SD and to try and get Greene. This could be a nice option. Some here will look at his low BA and be turned off. But this kid has power, and a great glove. Put him in a hitters park like Fenway, and that will come up.

 

For this deal to work, I would imagine that this would be a 3 team deal.

 

Anyone got any trade ideas? Heres one,

 

Boston trades Coco to SD, Lugo to CHC, CHC sends a prospect/ or Izturis to SD, Sox recieve Greene plus maybe a BP arm.

 

I don't see Lugo starting ahead of Ryan Theriot in Chicago so why would Chicago pay him $9M for some spot starts. The Cubs also have a very serviceable backup SS in Ronny Cedeno. Both Theriot and Cedeno are batting above .300 and between the two of them this season their errors do not total Lugo's. Izturis - Chicago??

[Jayhawk Bill]

The Cardinals might take Lugo, but they'd want Boston to absorb some of the salary.

 

***

 

A Greene-for-Felix Pie rumor floated briefly around the first of May but was shot down. Boston offered Coco Crisp to the Padres for Chase Headley to fill the vacuum caused by Edmonds' departure; Towers didn't make the deal.

 

There's activity in San Diego, the rumors include Greene, and Crisp + Lugo for Greene answers both teams' issues.

 

***

 

As an aside, though, with Cora and Lowrie Boston doesn't need to get a shortstop in return for Lugo. A deal with St Louis or some other team for a prospect--maybe with Tavarez as a throw-in, and with Boston picking up most of the salary--might be more likely than my preferred deal for Greene.

[ORS]

It's going to cost them to deal Lugo, IMO. Not cost the quality of the team, mind you, but money. If they are sending money out with the SS, and then paying money to an arbitration salary level player in Khalil Greene, then the calculus of the SS position becomes quite costly. I don't see them doing that when it looks like the more than adequate replacement is sitting in AAA and ready for this level.

 

Greene made $2.25M last year per BB-Ref. Lowrie makes the minimum. And, I'd bet dollars to donuts he would put up a higher WARP1 than Greene this year.

 

EDIT: JHB posted while I was typing. I concur, there's no need for a SS in return.

[BSN07]

Can a MOD fix the title please:D

[BSN07]

I think Lowrie could hold down the spot as well, just putting trade stuff out there for debate.

[BudLight]

Looks like the Cubs are going to send Pie back to AAA. His .222 BA just isn't cutting it right now. The Cubs should be signing Jim Edmonds as soon as he clears waivers today. The Sox platoon of Cora and Lowrie would be their best solution especially since they will have to cover a portion of Lugo's salary if they deal him IMO. I'm not sure about St. Louis taking Tavarez back as long as Tony LaRussa is the manager. There was quite a bit of bad blood there.

[BoSox21]

itll definitely cost the Sox money to get rid of Lugo, not to mention more egg on their face regarding the shortstop situation

[Jayhawk Bill]

It's going to cost them to deal Lugo, IMO. Not cost the quality of the team, mind you, but money. If they are sending money out with the SS, and then paying money to an arbitration salary level player in Khalil Greene, then the calculus of the SS position becomes quite costly. I don't see them doing that when it looks like the more than adequate replacement is sitting in AAA and ready for this level.

 

Greene made $2.25M last year per BB-Ref. Lowrie makes the minimum. And, I'd bet dollars to donuts he would put up a higher WARP1 than Greene this year.

 

EDIT: JHB posted while I was typing. I concur, there's no need for a SS in return.

 

All good points.

 

The biggest reason I keep supporting Lugo + Crisp for Greene is that the positive value of Crisp, both talent and contract considered, more than offsets the negative value of Lugo, again considering the contract. The net is roughly equal to the value of Greene in an average year...and neither his 2007 nor his 2008 thus far has been average for Greene looking at his whole career. He's roughly a .275/.328/.505, 27 HR, 94 RBI hitter on the road over the course of his career. PETCO kills him; Fenway would be ideally suited to his home run swing. Likewise, Coco and Lugo would probably flourish in PETCO. But it's not just that all three players seem better-suited to being in the other team's ballpark, nor that the trade exactly fills San Diego's and Boston's needs, nor that it moves three disaffected and currently unpopular players. It's that the value of talent less salary obligations looks about equal on each side.

 

There are very few other trades I see as likely where Boston wouldn't eat Lugo's salary.

 

***

 

BTW, Greene is in the first year of a two-year, $11 million contract. Lugo's contract has three years and $27 million left, plus an avoidable 2011 option. Crisp has two years at $10.5 million plus an $8 million club option for 2010 ($500,000 buyout). The Padres would accept an additional $25 million-odd in salary liability over three years in making the deal, but they'd acquire the shortstop and center fielder from the 2007 World Champions. The Padres appear to have the revenue stream to make this deal were they to choose to do so, and with Greene's stats at their nadir, the fans might applaud their team for making this move.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I'm not sure about St. Louis taking Tavarez back as long as Tony LaRussa is the manager. There was quite a bit of bad blood there.

 

Excellent point.

 

With Wellmeyer and Pineiro as their 4-5 starters, they seem to be a team who might need Tavarez's capability to be a swing man, ready to start if needed, but you're right about the issues.

[BudLight]

Excellent point.

 

With Wellmeyer and Pineiro as their 4-5 starters, they seem to be a team who might need Tavarez's capability to be a swing man, ready to start if needed, but you're right about the issues.

 

They surely could use his versatility, especially with Mulder's poor rehab performances. He may be looked at as a possible closer solution for the Cardinals though. LaRussa would have to bury the hatchet, not sure if his ego will let him though.

[Mr Crunchy]

its rather amusing how badly theo has f***ed up the shortstop situation over the years.

we dump nomie and win the world series with the smooth ocabrerra

then we dont even offer him a contract and instead we sign renteria for 40M over 4.

due to his anemic .270/34error season we end up paying packing his ass out of town

for that 1 season of awful production we paid 19,000,000.00....

now we have hanley waiting in the wings as the heir to the throne but we traded him to miami for becks...i have no problems with that deal because pitching is just an essential commodity that cant be ignored even if it means trading a future MVP...becks delivered in spades last year.

alex gonzales gets the gig in 06...9-50-.255 in 111 games but an anemic obp of .299?

the way i see it is you can hide a guy like this in our lineup and he was making rather short money,the man was unreal with loretta in the dp wheel and he looked as if he was going to be here for the long haul...

not theo

enter me and julio down by the school yard lugo and his atrocious 36M/4 deal.

what the f*** was that all about?

I am not a francona guy when it comes to the xs and o's but he does handle his players very well and they seem to like him very much,he has blended in the old and the new with little disruption and manny hasnt lost a grandparent in over 18 months...

but theo on the other hand?

i dont know who is luckier

theo or bob kraft

both cabrerra and gonzales were good fits here and each were cheaper and better than their replacements...

nobody is taking lugo and that albatross of a contract and jed lowrie may play lugo out of a job,cora is an adequate if not decent utility player,it makes sense to dump lugo but again,where and how much will it cost us in the end...

[rician blast]

IMO, the Sox can win with some sort of Cora/Lowrie combo. Is this an ideal SS situation? Perhaps not, but at the very least it's better than the defensive shortcomings shown by Lugo so far...thus, as others have mentioned, it's not imperative they receive a SS in any trade they make.

 

I wonder...does the Sox FO really think Lowrie is a potential SS of the future? If not, any thoughts on whether they're eyeing the FA market for a SS next year? IIRC, Izturis is under a one year deal with the Cards...personally I'm not enamored with him, but wondering if they'd go that direction..their recent track record not withstanding.

[Mr Crunchy]

i think they can win with a lowrie/cora combo

lowrie seems to wield a better stick and tito has done a good job using cora in the right place at the right time.

how this develops over the next 4 months will be interesting.

coco on the other hand has had a good spring,hes hitting running and fielding his spot very well,if they indeed are showcasing him he's been up to the task but with jd drew banged up again they cant afford to move him at this time.

drew is even money to miss 80 games this year with his various ailments and his reluctantcy to play thru pain....

i want to like jd drew and we need his production from the left side of the plate but he just cant seem to get out of his own way and spends more time in the trainers room than any other athlete in the city of boston...

hes not to be counted on period

[CrespoBlows]

I think getting rid of Cabrera worked out pretty good for the Red Sox.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2005draft/2005draftorder.html

 

The CF, and the SS, when Lugo is booted out of town, came from those draft picks.

[Jayhawk Bill]

its rather amusing how badly theo has f***ed up the shortstop situation over the years.

we dump nomie and win the world series with the smooth ocabrerra

 

Good trade. 1-0, Theo

 

then we dont even offer him a contract and instead we sign renteria for 40M over 4. due to his anemic .270/34error season we end up paying packing his ass out of town

for that 1 season of awful production we paid 19,000,000.00....

 

Bad signing. 1-1, Theo.

 

BTW, I look at Edgah's stats with Boston and I believe that one of two things had to be true:

 

1) He was played hurt, or

 

2) He stopped juicing with Boston after his contract year but started again with Atlanta.

 

Edgah came from Colombia...we now know that juicing was almost ubiquitous among serious Caribbean prospects in the 90's.

 

now we have hanley waiting in the wings as the heir to the throne but we traded him to miami for becks...i have no problems with that deal because pitching is just an essential commodity that cant be ignored even if it means trading a future MVP...becks delivered in spades last year.

 

As I've written before, I still regard Boston to have lost that deal. It's risky to second-guess any deal that brings one a critical player for a World Champion team, but the combination of Hanley, Anibel, and the players Boston could've signed through free agency with the salary dollars of Lowell and Beckett probably outweigh the contributions of Lowell and Beckett.

 

Mine is a minority opinion.

 

alex gonzales gets the gig in 06...9-50-.255 in 111 games but an anemic obp of .299?

the way i see it is you can hide a guy like this in our lineup and he was making rather short money,the man was unreal with loretta in the dp wheel and he looked as if he was going to be here for the long haul...

 

Gag me. Alex Gonzalez had neither range at shortstop nor OBP. He LOOKED great, and he usually had few errors and a reasonable batting average, but he was a disaster.

 

Note that Boston's pitchers, especially ground ball pitchers, struggled in 2006 and that it was the worst scoring team in recent memory. Alex Gonzalez was letting the ground balls through for hits and using up precious outs to help make that happen.

 

Another good call by Theo.

 

 

enter me and julio down by the school yard lugo and his atrocious 36M/4 deal.

what the f*** was that all about?

 

Lugo was awe-inspiring in 2006, right up to his trade to LA in July. With hindsight, it looks as if something went wrong right before that trade, and that he didn't recover for a year. But look at his stats since then:

 

[table] Time | BA | OBP | SLG

Second half 2007 | .280 | .322 | .406

First half 2008 | .285 | .348 | .341

Career | .271 | .334 | .393[/table]

 

Lugo's been near his career marks in all three areas between the latter half of 2007 and the beginning of the 2008 season.

 

Lugo's defense is puzzling and aggravating--it appears as if his confidence in his ability has been shaken. Over his career, despite high errors, Lugo has been about an average SS, with fielding range offsetting occasional erratic throws. Suddenly FRAA suggests that he's costing Boston a run every five games at SS, and a quick check of RZR suggests that it may be higher, as much as a run every other game. It sure looks more like the higher total to those of us watching.

 

Defense is notoriously prone to small-sample size effects. MLB GMs know this, and they haven't yet discounted Lugo at shortstop, I guarantee you. But...

 

I am not a francona guy when it comes to the xs and o's but he does handle his players very well and they seem to like him very much,he has blended in the old and the new with little disruption and manny hasnt lost a grandparent in over 18 months...

 

...while I strongly dislike Terry Francona, his decision to sit Lugo down is clearly in the best interests of the team and the player. Mills, of course, is following Tito's direction in establishing his daily lineup card.

 

but theo on the other hand?

i dont know who is luckier

theo or bob kraft

both cabrerra and gonzales were good fits here and each were cheaper and better than their replacements...

 

As CrespoBlows writes, in the long run the picks we got for OCab were worth more than OCab, and Alex Gonzalez really, truly sucked. It's fair to be critical of the Renteria deals; right now, it's easy to be down on Lugo, but discounting his poor first half of 2007 (which he attributes to parasites) and his current bizarre trouble on defense, Lugo has been roughly what we should have expected, even if less than his 2006 performance with Tampa Bay.

[BoSox21]

on the subject of Lugo, he's going to get more tests done as he continues to suffer effects from his concussion

[Jayhawk Bill]

on the subject of Lugo' date=' he's going to get more tests done as he continues to suffer effects from his concussion[/quote']

 

Thanks for the info--he's eligible for retroactive assignment to the DL if he hasn't played.

[jacksonianmarch]

Concussions are a bitch. Some people are fine, but the majority of people note some residual symptoms even 1 month out. These can include mild intermittent headaches, vomiting, or in severe forms disorientation and regression of function. I forget the player exactly (for some reason Koskie comes to mind) but ESPN did a very solid interview with a post concussive player. He couldnt leave his house because he'd get somewhere and then forget how to get home.

[SCM33]

Thanks for the info--he's eligible for retroactive assignment to the DL if he hasn't played.

 

A 60 day DL stint sits well with me.

[ORS]

...he'd get somewhere and then forget how to get home.

This sounds like Lugo. He gets to the batter's box and then forgets that he needs to get on base first before he can reach home.

[BoSox21]

luckily, Lugo doesn't play for the Philadelphia Flyers

[Mr Crunchy]

ive had several concussions,the most recent was last july and it took 36 hours before someone forced me into the hospital...the more you get the more easily they occur...

of course when i was i drinking and smashing up cars i never knew if it was a concussion or if it was a bleeding hangover..

JHB

good point about the pix and its something thats easily forgotten on my end because i rarely view the pawsox or who is coming up from where.

as far as the hanley becks deal goes.....

in 06 after sanchez tossed the no hitter and i saw becks get crucified in back to back starts against detroit on a monday and the yankees on a saturday afternoon i had my doubts...

all that speculation ended last summer and if becks doesnt win another game again in boston he still can strut into any tavern in this town and drink on the house...

of course hanley ramirez is one of the most exciting players in the game and will be an mvp before too long..

[BoSox21]

Beckett is the primary reason the team won a world championship last season. that alone makes the deal worth it

 

not to mention how good Lowell has turned out to be

[RobZombie]

No one is going to want Julio Lugo. The idea that the Padres are going to want him to replace Greene is insane no matter how badly Greene is struggling. With Lugo, we have a guy who can't field, can't hit for power, and doesn't walk a lot. Since he's fast and can probably pay a lot of positions, someone may think that he's a poor man's Chone Figgins but that's about it.

 

My candidate is still Omar Vizquel. Acording to UZR he was even at his age the third best defensive SS in the NL.

 

The Cubs need a CF so here is what I'd propose.

 

Crisp to the Cubs

 

Gallagher to the Giants

 

Fuld and Vizquel to the Sox. The Sox would need Fuld if they traded Crisp because they really don't have a backup plan in case Ellsburry is out for an extended period.

[ksushi]

I think that is one of the most well thought out and plausible trades I've ever seen on this board. Kudos. I would love it if something to that effect happened.

[jacksonianmarch]

I played against Sammy Fuld back in the day. Pesky son of a bitch. I K'd him a couple times.