The cost of Pedro Alvarez

[RobZombie]

All of these ranges, though, are first-round picks. The average team gets only one pick in one of the top three brackets, and rarely more than two picks total of this caliber. These are very high picks--these are excellent prospects.

 

Picks 1-7

Peak Wins 2.99

(Fourth MLB Year)

 

Picks 8-15

Peak Wins 2.44

(Third MLB Year)

 

Picks 16-25

Peak Wins 1.92

(Second MLB Year)

 

Picks 26+

Peak Wins 0.90

(Second MLB Year)

 

OK...but how good is a 2.99-win player or a 0.90-win player? Let's look at the 2007 Red Sox, evaluated by the same system, WARP (WARP1 to be exact):

 

[table]NAME | Wins

DAVID ORTIZ | 8.2

JOSH BECKETT | 7.9

MIKE LOWELL | 7.6

KEVIN YOUKILIS | 6.9

JONATHAN PAPELBON | 6.4

DUSTIN PEDROIA | 6.3

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA | 6.2

COCO CRISP | 5.4

JASON VARITEK | 5.3

CURT SCHILLING | 4.3

TIM WAKEFIELD | 4.3

MANNY RAMIREZ | 3.7

HIDEKI OKAJIMA | 3.6

J.D. DREW | 2.8

JACOBY ELLSBURY | 1.8

JULIAN TAVAREZ | 1.5

MIKE TIMLIN | 1.5

ALEX CORA | 1.4

MANNY DELCARMEN | 1.4

JAVIER LOPEZ | 1.4

JULIO LUGO | 1.4

KYLE SNYDER | 1.3

ERIC HINSKE | 1.1

BRENDAN DONNELLY | 1

JOEL PINEIRO | 0.5

BRANDON MOSS | 0.3

DOUG MIRABELLI | 0.2

DAVID MURPHY | 0.1

KEVIN CASH | 0

BOBBY KIELTY | 0

WILY MO PENA | 0

JEFF BAILEY | -0.1

ROYCE CLAYTON | -0.2[/table]

 

OK...This means that a truly elite draft pick, one of the top eight overall, can be expected to do roughly as well at his peak as JD Drew did in 2007. A sandwich pick would be as good as Brendan Donnelly in 2007 or Eric Hinske in 2007 at their peaks.

 

There are 24 roster slots at Pawtucket. Each year somewhere around two or three players who were starting at Pawtucket (or, more rarely, Portland) the previous year will play more than a handful of innings for Boston. Those players reflect the net value of an entire year's drafting and player development: of 24 roster spots at Pawtucket, maybe a half dozen players fill a few MLB at bats via waivers and just two or three contribute significantly.

 

That's why these value expectations are so low. Some first-round picks thrive--but others wash out badly, never reaching MLB. Washing out is much more common than succeeding. The value of the future stars is offset by the washouts until the result is the 2007 JD Drew.

 

Boston probably uses very sophisticated metrics to balance investment in prospects with investment in free agents. Certainly some draft picks are worth their bonuses--but certainly a very large number wash out completely, too. I'm not yet ready to criticize the FO for failing to sign one guy in the fourteenth round when it would've taken a million dollars to do so.

 

Of course this study makes two eroneous assumptions.

 

#1 All positions are created equal....they are not. Obviously hitters are more likely to make it than pitchers and college players are more likely to make it than high school players. High School players are more likely to become stars however.

 

Pedro Alvarez is the best of breed. He's a top college hitter from a top program likely to be drafted in the top 7. How do guys who fit this profile do?

 

Lets take a look at some names:

 

05: Gordon, Clemment, Zimmerman, Braun Tulowitzki

04: Drew (would have been in top 7 but fell due to having Boras as agent)

03: Weeks

01: Texiera

99: Munson

98 Burrell, Drew (Pena 10th)

97 Drew, Glaus

96: Lee

95: Erstad, Cruz, Helton 8th

 

It seems pretty clear from this that Alvarez is very likely to become a solid regular at least and maybe even a star. There was only one bust in the bunch (Munson), virtually everyone else was at least a solid regular for some time. Given this record, I don't see how anyone can argue that not spending $1M for a player of this calliber wasn't a huge blunder.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Of course this study makes two eroneous assumptions.

 

Nate Silver did the study. Would you like me to write him with your concern?

 

It's been part of the accepted body of knowledge for a few years now...but one never knows what might have been missed by a few tens of thousands of readers.

 

In answer to your question, I am male. There aren't that many girls who are into Rob Zombie.

 

By the way, would you object if I were to make this quote of yours my sig?

[SCM33]

Nate Silver did the study. Would you like me to write him with your concern?

 

It's been part of the accepted body of knowledge for a few years now...but one never knows what might have been missed by a few tens of thousands of readers.

 

 

 

By the way, would you object if I were to make this quote of yours my sig?

 

 

Jayhawk....just block him, I did.

Once I blocked him the overall intelligence of the board skyrocketed.

[ORS]

Alvarez is a top college hitter now, not when they drafted him. Sure is nice to have that 20/20 hindsight (or in this case foresight) when judging past decisions.

[Mr Crunchy]

There was only one bust in the bunch (Munson

 

i munsoned this fat chick in friendlys bathroom after the prom

[YAZMAN]

There was only one bust in the bunch (Munson

 

i munsoned this fat chick in friendlys bathroom after the prom

 

The complimentary Happy Ending is always a bonus.

[RobZombie]

Nate Silver did the study. Would you like me to write him with your concern?

 

It's been part of the accepted body of knowledge for a few years now...but one never knows what might have been missed by a few tens of thousands of readers.

 

 

 

By the way, would you object if I were to make this quote of yours my sig?

 

Again you missunderstand.

 

There's not a problem with the study. There's a problem with your conclusions from it. There's a problem with how YOU are using it. Obviously top college hitters are much better bets than any other type of player. Pedro Alvarez is a top college hitter.

 

I think if you studied it you'd find that these type of players were less risky but the overall WARP was less than high-school players. Really only one college hitter, Munson, didn't play every day for at least a few years. All of them played in the majors.

[RobZombie]

Alvarez is a top college hitter now' date=' not when they drafted him. Sure is nice to have that 20/20 hindsight (or in this case foresight) when judging past decisions.[/quote']

 

Don't we always use 20/20 hindsight when judging decisions? Yeah yeah no one knew that Jeff Bagwell would hit for as much power as he did, and they thought he was a 1B who wasn't as good as Mo Vaughn. No one cares if Bagwell doesn't become a Hall of Famer. But he did, and we do.

 

Like it or not, we ALL judge Red Sox managment by what happens. Everyone loved the Gagne trade at the time, but I'm sure everyone criticized it in retrospect. If Engel Beltre becomes a star, you can bet Theo will be slammed for the trade and rightfully so.

 

I'd say that the Red Sox should have known that this guy would end up being this good. Isn't that their job? In retrospect it looks like Alvarez is going to be worth a whole heck of a lot more than the $1M he wanted.

[RobZombie]

There was only one bust in the bunch (Munson

 

i munsoned this fat chick in friendlys bathroom after the prom

 

Its unfortunate that the best you can do is drunk fat chicks in dirty bathrooms. And THAT was in high-school. If that's your peak, I'd hate the see the valley .

[ORS]

What was the cost passing on Laporta? That guy fits the bill of established college star, and he's done nothing but rake in pro ball. He'll be ready right about the time Manny's contract expires.

[SCM33]

Pedro Alvarez so far this season:

.302 average

.421 OB%

.534 SLG%

6 HR

21 RBI

has only played in half the games so far...

.922 fielding percentage (6 errors in 28 games)

 

Look a little pedestrian to me for all the hype....dont know if he was hurt, but looks like there 3 players on his own team putting up better numbers.

[jacksonianmarch]

What was the cost passing on Laporta? That guy fits the bill of established college star' date=' and he's done nothing but rake in pro ball. He'll be ready right about the time Manny's contract expires.[/quote']

 

laporta's gonna dominate in the bigs

[RobZombie]

Pedro Alvarez so far this season:

.302 average

.421 OB%

.534 SLG%

6 HR

21 RBI

has only played in half the games so far...

.922 fielding percentage (6 errors in 28 games)

 

Look a little pedestrian to me for all the hype....dont know if he was hurt, but looks like there 3 players on his own team putting up better numbers.

 

He was injured for part of the year and that slowed him at first.

[RobZombie]

What was the cost passing on Laporta? That guy fits the bill of established college star' date=' and he's done nothing but rake in pro ball. He'll be ready right about the time Manny's contract expires.[/quote']

 

Good point. LaPorta defintely looks like he's going to be a star putting the numbers he's putting up in the Southern League. If he was doing that in AA or AAA, I think we'd be talking about him being the LF next year or the year after and not Manny.