Sox talking to Varitek for extension

[das11209]

The Providence Journal reports that "the Red Sox would like to talk to Jason Varitek about a contract extension" before the start of spring training.

 

Varitek has one season remaining on the four-year, $40 million deal that he signed in 2004, but his price figures to be significantly lower now following back-to-back mediocre seasons.

 

 

Not the kind of off-season upgrade I was looking forward to. I am not sure what the financials are - but I do not want this to happen. I have had let's say different opinions about this with other forum members who think Tek is next to God and they have voiced their opinions loudly. So I will not be surprised if I am bashed again - but apart from the intangibles ( leadership, young pitcher development and all that crap) - it will be nice if someone can post some numbers on why should we do it.

[TheKilo]

Not the kind of off-season upgrade I was looking forward to. I am not sure what the financials are - but I do not want this to happen. I have had let's say different opinions about this with other forum members who think Tek is next to God and they have voiced their opinions loudly. So I will not be surprised if I am bashed again - but apart from the intangibles ( leadership' date=' young pitcher development and all that crap) - it will be nice if someone can post some numbers on why should we do it.[/quote']

 

Well, the main reason we should do it is we have no other viable options for the next season or two.

 

I wouldn't mind a 2/24 contact with incentives.

[das11209]

Well, the main reason we should do it is we have no other viable options for the next season or two.

 

I wouldn't mind a 2/24 contact with incentives.

 

Good point I understand we do not have a catching prospect to replace Tek - so you will not do it if let's say we get Salty in a deal?

[VA Sox Fan]

No doubt I'm a Tek "Homer" I do think his leadership, development of young pitchers and his rapport with the more seasoned pitchers (ex: per Schilling, Tek called his almost no-hitter and the one time he shook him off, he gave up the hit) is invaluable. He is well respected in all of MLB. Cannot defend his inconsistent bat.

 

Extend him, without a doubt.

 

The Kilo makes a very valid point.

[ksushi]

I wish people would stop talking about acquiring Salty. Why do people think the Rangers will even think about making him available. They just traded Texiera for him and he is one of a very few promising prospects for them. He has a potential forty homer bat and he can catch. Thats a rare commodity. He ain't goin' no wheres.

[ACL BoSox]

no more than 3/30 - with a club option for the third year. Incentives of course should be offered as well. Love the guy but how long can he go...

[das11209]

I wish people would stop talking about acquiring Salty. Why do people think the Rangers will even think about making him available. They just traded Texiera for him and he is one of a very few promising prospects for them. He has a potential forty homer bat and he can catch. Thats a rare commodity. He ain't goin' no wheres.

 

I never said that Rangers will give up on Salty though. This is a Tek discussion - so hypothetically if somehow we get Salty or someone else equally good dropped on us by Santa Clause - would you guys still want to extend Tek?

[das11209]

no more than 3/30 - with a club option for the third year. Incentives of course should be offered as well. Love the guy but how long can he go...

 

Sounds a very fair deal - if we absolutely have no other choice. At least - he won't be as old as Posada.

[BoSox21]

this is the kind of guy where you say you don't want to extend him, but if he left, you'd miss him big time

[VA Sox Fan]

Sounds a very fair deal - if we absolutely have no other choice. At least - he won't be as old as Posada.

 

Posada had a great 2007.

[das11209]

Posada had a great 2007.

 

Yes - and I won't bet my house that he will repeat it.

 

On a lighter note - I was waiting for you to jump on this thread.

[das11209]

this is the kind of guy where you say you don't want to extend him' date=' but if he left, you'd miss him big time[/quote']

 

So - are you saying that he is irreplacable? How do you think it impacts us if let's say he decides to join another team after this year after the Sox makes him a great offer and we get a good offensive/defensive alternative?

[VA Sox Fan]

Yes - and I won't bet my house that he will repeat it.

 

On a lighter note - I was waiting for you to jump on this thread.

 

Didn't want to disappoint ya-

[TheKilo]

So - are you saying that he is irreplacable? How do you think it impacts us if let's say he decides to join another team after this year after the Sox makes him a great offer and we get a good offensive/defensive alternative?

 

I think Tek is as overrated as they come, but the fact is there are not other good options for the Sox.

 

And honestly, if he can hit .260 the next two seasons I think a 2/24 type deal would be worth it.

 

I'd be happier if they dumped Dougie and gave Kottaras a shot.

[BoSox21]

So - are you saying that he is irreplacable? How do you think it impacts us if let's say he decides to join another team after this year after the Sox makes him a great offer and we get a good offensive/defensive alternative?

 

he just might be irreplaceable. catching is becoming a dying art and Tek brings so much more to the table besides his bat in terms of defensive ability and pitch calling, as evidenced by what happened after he went down towards the end of 2006

[das11209]

I'd be happier if they dumped Dougie and gave Kottaras a shot.

 

I hear you bro - I wish Theo does too. And I don't like this 1 bit.

 

According to the Boston Globe, "the paucity of catching has the Red Sox contemplating bringing back Doug Mirabelli next season."

 

Mirabelli said earlier this month that he hopes to re-sign with Boston and continue as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher, but the Red Sox might be looking to upgrade after he hit just .191 and .202 over the past two seasons.

[Jayhawk Bill]

My initial reaction to this was negative: I wanted to get a "contract year" out of Varitek, and then reward him if he were to show he's still got it. Further reflection and a little research convinced me that this is a very challenging issue, and that conventional wisdom may not apply.

 

First, Tek did almost equally well in his contract year of 2004 and his next season in 2005. The reputed work ethic was proven: Tek can't be counted on for a contract year bump in his stats, because he already gives everything that he's got.

 

Second, Tek is quietly moving into some very elite company regarding his talent and longevity as a catcher. Let's check MLB catchers by VORP, 2007:

 

[table]NAME | VORP

Jorge Posada | 73.4

Victor Martinez | 55.0

Russell Martin | 46.1

Joe Mauer | 30.2

Jason Varitek | 23.4

Brian McCann | 22.8

Josh Bard | 22.5

Kenji Johjima | 22.2[/table]

 

I wouldn't've guessed that Tek would've beaten Brian McCann on this list. There's a big drop after Johjima--these are the elite eight catchers of 2007. Of these eight, two (Martinez and Bard), IMO, don't really have the skills to catch effectively, and one (Mauer) is destroying his knees catching and is going to have to change positions.

 

That leaves Jason Varitek as one of the top five catchers in the game today.

 

OK, then who are his comparables for analysis?

 

:dunno:

 

I looked at BR comparables; I looked at BP PECOTA comparables; I looked further. Most of the BP and BR comparables have to be thrown out, because they don't exhibit an important characteristic: at age 35, Tek was very close to his career stats while still playing 125 games as a catcher. Very, very few catchers can do anything like that.

 

Here's what I get, roughly in descending order.

 

Carlton Fisk

Jorge Posada

Elston Howard

Gary Carter

Bob Boone

Rick Dempsey

Benito Santiago

 

We don't yet know about Jorge Posada. Howard and Carter still had a few more good years each. Howard sucked with the 1967 Red Sox in 116 AB, but he did a credible job with the Red Sox in 1968, The Year of the Pitcher, at age 39. Carter, already declining by age 35 (but included due to previous similarities), made it three more years as a half-time catcher. Santiago hit well right through the end of his career, and caught regularly through age 38 (steroids may have been a factor). Dempsey became a backup catcher after age 36 but continued to hold a job well into his 40's.

 

The best single comparable, by far IMO, is Carlton Fisk. Fisk caught regularly through age 43, for a total of over 2,200 games. Jason Varitek has caught barely more than half as many games as Fisk caught through his career.

 

My take: I'd take a leap at something that Boras might not easily agree to. I'd offer Jason Varitek a very lucrative two-year extension--something like $12-14 million per year--as long as he accepted a Wakefield-style recurring team option for a nominal sum--say $4-6 million--every year thereafter, with significant incentives for All Star selection, silver slugger, MVP votes received, and games caught over 80. Tek probably won't command $12 million after 2008, so this deal would let him lock in another $24 million. In return, Boston would get the rights to the latter days of his career at a discounted rate if he actually has another 500+ games caught left in him.

 

Barring that, I'd offer an extension of 2/20 guaranteed for 2009/2010 with incentives for games caught over 100 bringing the total to a possible $12 million per year for 120-125 games caught.

[Thumper]

Tek for two more years wouldn't be a bad idea. We have him as our Captain for a reason. He's a great catcher, smart, and works well with the rotation and bullpen. Now let's make like McCarver and sign on the "Sergeant Major." (McCarver is a dumbass).

[.406]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I love Tek and he's been brilliant for the Sox but he's 35, going to be 36 at the start of next season. If they want to give him 1-2 more years MAX, than fine, but let's not act like he's irreplaceable. There WILL be another Red Sox catcher when Tek is gone.. his offense has gotten even more anemic (especially the K's).

[riverside sluggers]

No' date=' no, no, no, no, no, no, no.[/b'] I love Tek and he's been brilliant for the Sox but he's 35, going to be 36 at the start of next season. If they want to give him 1-2 more years MAX, than fine, but let's not act like he's irreplaceable. There WILL be another Red Sox catcher when Tek is gone.. his offense has gotten even more anemic (especially the K's).

 

Have you seen the FA class for catchers in 2008 offseason? Its a very weak market, even the 2009 offseason is. A 2 year extension isnt out of the question

[TheKilo]

No' date=' no, no, no, no, no, no, no.[/b'] I love Tek and he's been brilliant for the Sox but he's 35, going to be 36 at the start of next season. If they want to give him 1-2 more years MAX, than fine, but let's not act like he's irreplaceable. There WILL be another Red Sox catcher when Tek is gone.. his offense has gotten even more anemic (especially the K's).

 

That's fine. Who is going to replace him?

 

And don't link me to your blog for the answer either.

[RedSoxRooter]

This is a no-brainer. You have to keep him around for two reasons.

 

1 - there are hardly any other options around the league to replace him. Teams who currently have good catchers lined up are not getting rid of them unless that team is the Marlins.

 

I'd like for the people who say "we should get someone else" to simply tell me who, and how we get them.

 

2 - need I remind you all how the team played the last TWO times Tek got injured and missed time??? The exact same thing happend both years.

[.406]

Have you seen the FA class for catchers in 2008 offseason? Its a very weak market' date=' even the 2009 offseason is. [b']A 2 year extension isnt out of the question[/b]

 

So pretty much what I said myself:

If they want to give him 1-2 more years MAX' date=' than fine[/quote']

 

That's fine. Who is going to replace him?

 

And don't link me to your blog for the answer either.

 

A replacement is something the Red Sox can handle; a less expensive free agent (because resigning Varitek will no be cheap), or giving Kottaras any kind of shot to see what exactly we're look at with him at the big league level.

 

2 years is fine... at a reasonable price compared to his output. But seeing Posada sign a 4 year, $52 million contract can only make Varitek also thing he'll be seeing a nice final contract. I don't want Varitek at age 39-40 like the Yankees will be paying Posada at that age. As for your link.. here it is.

[Thumper]

Have you seen the FA class for catchers in 2008 offseason? Its a very weak market' date=' even the 2009 offseason is. A 2 year extension isnt out of the question[/quote']

 

So are the Minor League (Triple-A) prospects. Now we have seen Kevin Cash perform and from what I recall was exceptional behind the plate, but in 12 games this year with the Red Sox he only hit .111 with 4 RBI and both his OBP and SLG were under .250. In addition, he's soon to be 32, so it's not like he'll be making that "breakout" season anytime soon, or ever for that matter. Then there's George Kottras. The 24 year old hit .241 with 9 big flys and 39 RBIs in 87 games for the Paw Sox. However he put up a good OBP of .316 and a SLG of .408.

 

All in all, at this current point in time, I'd say the best choice we have now would be to extend Tek for two more years. He's experienced, skilled, and despite his lack of offensive production, he's still there behind the plate doing his job tremendously. Maybe by the time his extension is up, Kottras would have started rising, or maybe we'll find a trade deal or even someone new on the FA block.

[Jayhawk Bill]

But seeing Posada sign a 4 year' date=' $52 million contract can only make Varitek also thing he'll be seeing a nice final contract. I don't want Varitek at age 39-40 like the Yankees will be paying Posada at that age.[/quote']

 

I posted VORP earlier today: Posada's was three times higher than Tek's. A 2/24 extension--3/34 total--compares well to Posada's 4/52 when that's considered.

[Mr Crunchy]

vorp is predicated on offense

how do you factor in calling a game or calming a pitcher down with vorp?

how do you factor jorge posada's fear of blocking the plate into these stats?

what kind of vorp raise did tek get when he bitch slapped arod in front of 25,000,000 people watching on tv that saturday afternoon in 04 that turned our season and the legacy of our franchise around for all of eternity?

 

vorp is nice....

but like most #s,they can be deceptive and misleading.

[Jayhawk Bill]

vorp is predicated on offense

how do you factor in calling a game or calming a pitcher down with vorp?

how do you factor jorge posada's fear of blocking the plate into these stats?

what kind of vorp raise did tek get when he bitch slapped arod in front of 25,000,000 people watching on tv that saturday afternoon in 04 that turned our season and the legacy of our franchise around for all of eternity?

 

True, VORP is predicated on offense.

 

Calling a game is measured with CERA. After looking at CERA for years, serious analysts have pretty much discarded it. There seems to be no statistically significant ability of catchers to influence ERA. Keith Woolner wrote seven years ago:

 

Conclusions

 

Though we would colloquially say that game-calling doesn’t exist, it’s more accurate to say that if there is a true game-calling ability, it lies below the threshold of detection. There is no statistical evidence for a large game-calling ability, but that doesn’t preclude that a small ability. For example, a genuine game-calling ability that reduces a pitcher’s ERA by 0.01, resulting in a savings of about 1.6 runs per year for the entire team and could be masked by the statistical variance in the sample size we have to work with. Players would need to play thousands more games than they actually do to have enough data to successfully detect such a skill statistically.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=432

 

If the possible magnitude of a great game-caller's skill is 1-2 runs a year, it kinda fades away when compared to 50 runs' difference as hitters.

 

Blocking the plate? That's one way that a catcher would influence a pitcher's ERA, so the work done regarding CERA captuired the (lack of) effect of plate-blocking. Certainly it might make a difference on one critical run in one game sometime, but 50 extra runs per year influence LOTS of games.

 

Getting a VORP raise for slamming A-Rod? I'll venture that Tek got a pay raise for slamming A-Rod in 2004, as well as a "C" on his jersey, but I don't think that such things overwhelm 50-run differences. Look back: yes, the win that day started a three-game winning streak, but the next two were a defeat of a 5.64 ERA pitcher and a win by Pedro Martinez over the Orioles. Boston then dropped three out of four games. Boston lost the AL East to the Yankees by three games; they won the Wild Card by six games.

 

As a fan, I love that Varitek moment, just as I love Dave Roberts's stolen base. As an analyst, I can't find much predictive value of such things regarding next year's performance.

 

vorp is nice....

but like most #s,they can be deceptive and misleading

 

Stories are nice, but when they're used in an attempt to make a player look better than another one whose offense is three times more valuable, they can start to become deceptive and misleading.

 

VORP is a very good measure of a player's offense. Posada's 2007 VORP of 73.4 was the best by any catcher for a decade, ever since Mike Piazza hit .362/.431/.638 in 1997. Variek's fifth-best 23.4 was exactly fifty runs lower. Defense can make up some of that: Dave Gassko considered Varitek three runs better than Posada defensively, while BP FRAA considered Varitek 13 runs better. BP FRAA takes a team-based approach to defense, while Gassko sticks strictly to individual stats, so I'm inclined to consider FRAA more strongly in this case. Throw in a couple of runs for good game-calling and, just for grins, a whopping ten more runs for leadership because Tek popped A-Rod in 2004 and we've still made up only half of the difference between the two.

 

Even with all that said, I'm on record supporting a 3/34 for Tek. Posada's 4/52 is only $5 million richer over those first three years: I think that I'm supporting Tek more strongly than you might have beieved.

[Ray10]

Sox deff need to resign this guy he's the Captain of the team for a reason his presence in the lineup is something that is very very valuable and he really knows how to work with his pitchers. I mean don't get me wrong the pitchers themselves are the ones who throw the stuff but without a great catcher who can call a great game behind the plate they wouldn't be as good.

[schillingouttheks]

Sox deff need to resign this guy he's the Captain of the team for a reason his presence in the lineup is something that is very very valuable and he really knows how to work with his pitchers. I mean don't get me wrong the pitchers themselves are the ones who throw the stuff but without a great catcher who can call a great game behind the plate they wouldn't be as good.

 

His presence in the lineup is valuable. I'm still laughing after reading that.

 

Also lol @ we need to re-sign him because he's captain of the team.