The Top prospects in the Red Sox system.

[scaffolds]

Yeah dude' date=' I don't care whether you're a 'real' scout, or a ' fake scout', whether you have fans at soxprospects.com or not, I appreciate your posts and feel that you are a welcome addition to this site. I like soxprospects, quite a bit actually because of their dilligence in updating and giving a good idea of where the system is at, but I don't see how that excludes me from liking your posts. Kudos.[/quote']

 

It well known the stuff about being a fake scout, is a way for the people at Soxprospect to try to put me down, it doesn't surprised me from those people at that board. but if they want to live a lied let them do, I enjoy talking about the Red Sox prospects and sharing my knowledge with my fellow Red Sox prospect followers.

[scaffolds]

Not surprised at all that catcher John Otness isnt in here. Ive seen him in several games up in Portland, quickly gave him the nickname of "Butterfingers". He also displayed bad batting skills. Just something thats been on my mind for the past week

 

Moving on. Scaff, what are your thoughts on Portland fan favorite Iggy Suarez? I say fan favorite becase he gets the most cheers when he is playing in the game. Obviously if he makes the majors it will just be as a utility infielder

 

You're right Otness isn't much of a prospect, Suarez defense its well known, his bat its the key, however he will be 27 yrs early next year, his chances of reaching the ML are slim, it depends what are the Sox plans for Lowrie in 2008, if they keep him as a short stop Suarez will return to Portland if they decided that Lowrie its better as a second baseman ( like i believe he is) Suarez wil be Pawtucket SS in 2008.

[carltonfiskga]

Scaffs,

 

you still around? HAven't seen an update in awhile and I find most of them very informative from you.

 

A couple of questions for you.

 

IS there any further updates from the latin america free agent market or has basically all the top signings been signed and accounted for by most of the MLB clubs?

 

What is your take on the signing out of Taiwan of that 18 year old catcher the other day? You know anything about him?

[scaffolds]

Scaffs,

 

you still around? HAven't seen an update in awhile and I find most of them very informative from you.

 

A couple of questions for you.

 

IS there any further updates from the latin america free agent market or has basically all the top signings been signed and accounted for by most of the MLB clubs?

 

What is your take on the signing out of Taiwan of that 18 year old catcher the other day? You know anything about him?

 

Thank you, I will be around from time to time, I don't know much about Chia-Chu Chen, my connections in the Pacific Rim scoutings is very limeted. The second phase of International players signing is underway and will run to the end of the year. I will have some names of players who the Red Sox have signed in a few weeks.

[scaffolds]

I was Email a few days ago asking me why I had Jed Lowrie ranked as the organization #11 prospect and the reason is this. Lowrie doesn't have soft hands and his hands are erractic and his lack of range and arm strength doesn't compesate for.

 

Lowrie had a very good between Portland and Pawtucket, but his bat is very streaky and none of his ofensive tools are above average.

 

BA has said that Lowrie could play SS at the ML level on a regular basis, but the issue is that BA based his information mainly on league managers and coaches and while they are baseball people they don't follow over all details like a scout would, BA also consults scouts but no more than 2 or 3 of them by league. Baseball scouting is a unique practice and one where there could be multiple scouting reports or opinion in a player, in general the scouting report on Lowrie is that he could be an ideal second hitter in a line up while playing second base, but that he couldn't play SS at the ML level day in day out.

 

In conclusion the Red Sox are going to have to make decision some time in 2008 which way they are going to when it comes to second base. Lowrie while a better athlete than Pedroia isn't the answer over Pedroia and because of it will be traded for a need.

[jacksonianmarch]

It would be interesting, though, if the sox decided to make a big splash by dealing Pedroia and then go with the rookie Lowrie while upgrading somewhere else.

[ksushi]

Very doubtful, though.

[BSN07]

I can't see Theo parting with the poster child of the farm system. Youk maybe, but not Pedroia.

[TheKilo]

I can't see Theo parting with the poster child of the farm system. Youk maybe' date=' but not Pedroia.[/quote']

 

Kinda like when he didn't trade Nomar, right?

[ORS]

What exactly are we talking about that makes Lowrie suitable for 2B but inadequate at SS? The requirements for range are about the same. Good hands are equally valuable. If it's anything other than arm, I'd like to know what it is, and while I've not seen him, most of what I've read suggests his arm is fine for the position.

 

With that in mind, what would the cutoff point be in offensive vs. defensive value? With the way his bat is performing, he'd have to be pretty f***ing s***** in the field to not warrant consideration of keeping him and playing him up the middle with Pedroia.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kinda like when he didn't trade Nomar' date=' right?[/quote']

 

if the right name comes along, Pedroia is gone. Same with us, if the right name comes along, its bye bye Cano.

[example1]

Kinda like when he didn't trade Nomar' date=' right?[/quote']

 

We're talking about two different kinds of homegrown here TheKilo.

 

The current FO puts ultimate emphasis on OBP as a measure of plate discipline. Nomar was not a disciplined hitter. He simply wasn't. He was great for a few years but one can see from Pedroia that he will be getting on base consistently for years to come at a VERY reasonable rate.

 

Of course his name will eventually come up as trade bait, but the comparison to Nomar is a bit off-base, IMO.

[TheKilo]

We're talking about two different kinds of homegrown here TheKilo.

 

The current FO puts ultimate emphasis on OBP as a measure of plate discipline. Nomar was not a disciplined hitter. He simply wasn't. He was great for a few years but one can see from Pedroia that he will be getting on base consistently for years to come at a VERY reasonable rate.

 

Of course his name will eventually come up as trade bait, but the comparison to Nomar is a bit off-base, IMO.

 

Disagree.

 

If OBP is so important why do we have Coco and Lugo in the lineup?

[rician blast]

With the way his bat is performing' date=' he'd have to be pretty f***ing s***** in the field to not warrant consideration of keeping him and playing him up the middle with Pedroia.[/quote']

 

I assume you mean that Peroia would move to SS? I don't like that idea, just don't see him as a long-term solution at short.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am sure the brass has seen more than anyone else on this board has. And with Theo, you know defense plays in the equation. Plus, you already have a shortstop who, while he isnt a total liability, is completely untradeable at this point. I think the brass are going to sit back and see what happens. If a sweet deal comes along for a starter and they want Pedroia, dont be surprised if Duddy hits the road. It is nice to have those kind of options.

[ORS]

I assume you mean that Peroia would move to SS? I don't like that idea' date=' just don't see him as a long-term solution at short.[/quote']

No, I'm thinking Lowrie plays SS. He's got the better arm, and he played there almost all year this year. The BA write up on him has managers from around the EL and IL stating he's more than adequate at short.

[scaffolds]

A short stop needs a better range than a second baseman, also a more secure hands, that's why Lowrie projects as a second baseman, also its well known that Lowrie doesn't have a strong arm.

[ORS]

Why does a SS need more secure hands than a 2B? This is a baseballism that doesn't pass the smell test. They both handle the ball in the middle of the infield, with roughly equivalent frequency and demand for precision.

 

I don't mean to be redundant, but the difference between the two in terms of position is the length of the throw to 1B. They both need to be able to cover ground, they both need to be able to handle the ball well. He's got the stronger arm over Pedroia, and if his bat is worth keeping, he ought to get a look at SS.

[scaffolds]

Why does a SS need more secure hands than a 2B? This is a baseballism that doesn't pass the smell test. They both handle the ball in the middle of the infield, with roughly equivalent frequency and demand for precision.

 

I don't mean to be redundant, but the difference between the two in terms of position is the length of the throw to 1B. They both need to be able to cover ground, they both need to be able to handle the ball well. He's got the stronger arm over Pedroia, and if his bat is worth keeping, he ought to get a look at SS.

 

A second baseman can still make a play even if he doesn't catch the ball clean, a SS in most plays needs to catch the ball clean, specially if they don't have a strong arm, in Lowrie's case his arm is very average.

[ORS]

Good point. How does his ability at short rate? I understand the point that he profiles better at 2B, but would he be adequate at short? I think his bat is going to spark some interesting consideration there.

 

What would you do, Scaff, if he can swing it like he has at the next level? Play him at short? Trade Pedroia? Or see what kind of buzz he creates and move him?

 

At this point, it sounds like his offensive ability will be better than Pedroia's (same hitting ability, minus some contact skill, but with much more power). I like Dustin, but I always like the better player more.

[scaffolds]

While Lowrie is more athletic, I like Pedroia's game better, more than likely Lowrie will be traded.

[jacksonianmarch]

But in the trade game, value is always the most important thing. If you consider that Lowrie and Pedroia are similar, but Pedroia can net you 75% more in terms of talent, even though you like Pedroia better, isnt it more beneficial to the sox to trade DPed?

[example1]

Disagree.

 

If OBP is so important why do we have Coco and Lugo in the lineup?

 

Because there aren't the OBP and defensive equivalents of both of those players available otherwise. I think you will see Jacoby Ellsbury--who provides the same speed, defense and power as Crisp--quickly take over for Crisp. Not because he's cheaper, or because he's younger, but because he's going to get on base AT LEAST .365, and Crisp can't.

 

--Lugo on base this season: .294

--333 career and full-season career high of .362.

--Alex Gonzalez (remember him?) career OBP: .295

--career full-season high: .325.

 

So Lugo was an obvious upgrade in OBP and speed, over Gonzalez. Edgar Renteria had a full-season career high of .394, and a career average of .349. All things being equal, the Sox would rather that Renteria had worked out in Boston. His OBP would have been a huge reason, but the dealt him while he still had some upside on the market. If the sox are going to have someone with a lower OBP that player better come with another solid skill (such as speed, or the ability to catch Wakefield).

 

The red sox put as much emphasis on OBP (as a reflection of plate control) as any team in baseball, especially in terms of development; Pedroia a perfect example. You couldn't find another Pedroia on the market. There are some similar hitters, but he is a non-superstar very good player.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I'd keep Lowrie and let him play SS. He may not be Alex Gonzalez or Orlando Cabrera....but he may be Derek Jeter.

 

Jed Lowrie needs to make an impact offensively to be considered on this Red Sox team. A switch hitting middle-infielder with good contact and power skills is tough to find. IF he becomes a hitter in the mold of a Nomar, Jeter, Tejada, Renteria...whatever....he will stick around and play SS no matter what his range or arm strength is like.

 

Lets remember that Lowrie is still very young and the more experience he gets at SS the better he will get. Perhaps his arm and range sit idle but his instincts will improve.

[RobZombie]

I'd keep Lowrie and let him play SS. He may not be Alex Gonzalez or Orlando Cabrera....but he may be Derek Jeter.

 

From everything I've read, Lowrie is about an average defensive SS and many scouts believe that he can play the position in the majors. He's done this through hard work and a lot of coaching.

 

Lugo had a season this year that was below his career norms offensively. I'd wait, and see where the two stand next season. Come next July, if Lugo is struggling while Lowrie is tearing up the IL with his bat, and playing decent defense, they have to seriously think about putting Lowrie at SS in the majors.

[AZBlue]

I think we sometimes devalue players who are graded as having "average" tools. Major league average for some tools is not a liability. If a shortstop is average across the board in the field and consistently makes the routine plays, the pitching staff is not going to be yearning for a replacement.

[scaffolds]

With the graduation Jacoby Ellsbury to Boston who would be the Red Sox top CF prospect going into the 2008 minor league season? Its very close, as matter of fact as close as Che-Hauang Lin as the #14 prospect on the system and Ryan Kalish as the #16 prospect. Kalish is the more polish and better hitter for now, but Lin projects the better power, both players play top defense, but because of Lin's speed who is rated plus, plus and arm also rated plus will get the nod as the top CF in the system. There is a very strong possibility that the Greenville outfielders will be very interesting this Spring with Lin, Kalish, Carlos Fernandez and Jason Plason sharing the 3 outfield positions.

[scaffolds]

Reid Engel who is the #22 prospect in the system is also very close to the top two CF prospect. Engel came into pro ball running a 6.4/60 yards but a rail thin 6-3 160 and a very raw bat. It took Engel two plus years to get out of short season ball. In 2007 a 6-3 190 Engel showed that he could hit for average, power projection, in addition to his speed and defense.

 

Bubba Bell who is the Sox's #42 prospect is the CF prospect. Bell had a outstanding year in 2007, but because he put those numbers in the California league, specially at Lancaster and the fact when promoted to Portland (AA) he struggle more than expected didn't help in his ranking, in addition the fact that he was 24 yrs in A ball. Bell is a good defensive CF but none of his physical tools are close to the top three CF prospects.

 

Ronald Bermudez can hit and he proved in 2007 when he led the DSL in hitting in average. Bermudez at 6-0 165 isn't a big man, but he showed some pop in his bat, Bermudez has above average speed, but his defense needs some work. If both Lin and kalish plays at Greenville like its expected Bermudez who is 19 yrs may skip the GCL and play in Lowell.

 

Rafael Cabreja is small, but has good quickness and showed improvement in 2007 over his rookie season in the GCL in 2006. Jay Johnson has some talent and plays a good defense, but the 24 yrs may had taken a step back in 2007 playing in AA, are the next CF prospects.

 

P.S. If Engel Beltre hadn't be traded at the July 31 trading dead line would had been ranked only behind Ellsbury at the end of the year and first on this list.

 

A player that i left out of the center field prospect mix is Matt Sheely. Sheely is a small speedy player without much punch, but he can hit for average and steal bases, besides of playing a good defense, the issue with Sheely is that the Sox top three CF prospect will be playing in A ball which means there won't be many chances for Sheely to get on the field.

[scaffolds]

First base was the Sox's weakest position when it came to prospect a couple years ago, but going in to the 2008 season it may be strongest as it has 4 of the top 20 prospects in the system and 5 out of the top 40.

 

With the graduation of Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz to Boston ther's a good chance that Lars Anderson may the Sox's top prospect going into the 2008 season. At the end of the 2007 season Anderson was the #4 prospect on the system.

 

Aaron Bate is the system #13 prospect in a system very short of right handed hitters specially one with power. Bate player in Lancaster for most of the 2007 season and when promoted to Portland had some problems, so it will be interesting how he handles AA in 2008.

 

Chris Cater is the system #17 prospect, a top hitting prospect and power hitter the main reason the Sox brass was so interested in his services. Carter issues are well know, its called Defense or the lack of it, Carter's defense its better than in outfield, but isn't better than below average. With Boston having some production issues at first base, i wouldn't be surprised if Carter makes the ML team in 2008.

 

Anthony Rizzo is the system #20 prospect. I made a post when the Sox signed Rizzo that I both Rizzo and Anderson play as a H.S. seniors and that Rizzo is as good as Anderson and we all saw how good Anderson is. Rizzo played less than 2 weeks in the GCL and more than likelly the Sox brass will take slowly with him and have him go back to the GCL in 08.

 

Mike Jones is the system #38 prospect. Jones is one of the system top power hitters potentially, but in 2007 didn't hit for the power in Lowell like he did in the GCL in 2006, however he did hit for high average and when promoted to Greenville more than hold his own.

 

Jon Still has been playing as a catcher (should remain as a catcher for now) in the Sox system, but because lack of defensive tools as a catcher he projects as a first baseman. Still had a very good season in 2007 while playing for Greenville/ Lancaster and should return to lancaster in 2008.

 

Ricardo Burgos is a player not well known by Red Sox fans, but he was the Sox's DSL ofensive player of the year in 2006. The 20 yrs Venezuelan led the Red Sox (GCL) in HR playing in a park not known for HR, Burgo did slup at the end of the year.

 

Eddie Lora didn't have a good first year in the system (DSL) but the 6-2 228 18 Dominican Switcher and left handed thrower has plus power (potentially) Lora was one of the hitters in DSL getting on base by the base on balls, but was also one who struck out the most.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chris Carter will be in Boston in 08. The guy mashes everywhere he goes, all the time. You can only bury him for so long.