Down goes Karstens

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I expect him to be dealt this offseason.

 

No way...it's obvious that Minnesota values it's young talent, having signed Mauer to an extension and continuing discussion to get Morneau signed as well. They didn't break the bank for Mauer, they won't for Morneau...it seems to me that their big-ticket, astronomically-priced guy is going to be Santana. Assuming Liriano comes back to form, the Twins would have the best 1-2 in baseball by a loooooooong shot. No one else would come close. What would be their motivation to deal the best pitcher in baseball when he's just coming into his prime? Purely economical? I can't see that happening.

[riverside sluggers]

Jacks thinks so. I think he is EXTREMELY OVER-RATED. Hughes and Sanchez for Santana. YEAH BABY!

 

Im a Sox fan through & through, but I will admit that the Yankees pulling of a Hughes trade would be a big blunder to their system. Fans will be dancing on Yawkey Way if they gave up so easily on this 20 year old stud. Although if its for Santana, its a trade off but still Minnesota would get more years out of him than NY would with Santana

[jacksonianmarch]

and on the cheap. Hughes is the best yankee pitching prospect since Whitey Ford. His polish and his stuff at 20 is remarkable. You dont give up on that kind of talent for anything.

[ORS]

That is complete folly. I'm all about keeping your prospects to see what they can do, but not for that level player. If you can get the best pitcher in baseball who is only 28, you do it without question.

[Gom]

That is complete folly. I'm all about keeping your prospects to see what they can do' date=' but not for that level player. If you can get the best pitcher in baseball who is only 28, you do it without question.[/quote']

 

Unequivocally agreed.

 

Jacks, this guy may turn out to be the real deal. However, how many pitchers turn out to live up to the hype? How many turn into the next Clemens? Most of them turn out to be average major leaguers. That is what Hughes will be. Like I said, my opinion.

 

From what I've seen of him, which admittedly isn't much, is that he has an average fastball, and an above average curve and changeup. Nothing really else. If you can package any number of major leaguers in baseball for the best pitcher in baseball, you do it without question.

 

Do I think the Twins move Santana? I don't know. I am not privy to their finances. There is no way however, they can afford the 20 million a year he will ask for and get. If they can get Tabata and Hughes, two of the top ten prospects in all of baseball for him, it would be real hard to say no to, in my opinion. What do you guys think?

[TheKilo]

Seriously Jacko, wtf?

 

You want Hughes to turn into Santana. So why would you b opposed to trading him FOR Santana?

[CrespoBlows]

Im a Sox fan through & through' date=' but I will admit that the Yankees pulling of a Hughes trade would be a big blunder to their system. Fans will be dancing on Yawkey Way if they gave up so easily on this 20 year old stud. Although if its for Santana, its a trade off but still Minneapolis would get more years out of him than NY would with Santana[/quote']

 

You can dance, I'll shoot myself.

[rician blast]

When interviewed, Karstens stated "I generally don't mind "going down" on the guys, but not like this ."

[TheKilo]

Im a Sox fan through & through' date=' but I will admit that the Yankees pulling of a Hughes trade would be a big blunder to their system. Fans will be dancing on Yawkey Way if they gave up so easily on this 20 year old stud. Although if its for Santana, its a trade off but still Minneapolis would get more years out of him than NY would with Santana[/quote']

 

Yeah, umm, facing Santana 4+ times a season is a bad thing.

[jacksonianmarch]

Seriously Jacko, wtf?

 

You want Hughes to turn into Santana. So why would you b opposed to trading him FOR Santana?

 

Because Santana has 8 yrs on him and will cost 20 mil a yr vs the 350K Hughes will command.

[TheKilo]

Because Santana has 8 yrs on him and will cost 20 mil a yr vs the 350K Hughes will command.

 

Yet, Santana is the real deal. Hughes might be.

[jacksonianmarch]

Agreed. But there is always an adjustment period in NY. Guys who come up with us typically are better off because it is all they ever know. Dont get me wrong, when he is a FA, I hope we outbid everyone. But not at the expense of Hughes.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees received "normal" reports on Jeff Karstens, the best possible outcome of a battery of examinations on the hurler's tight right elbow.

 

Karstens, 24, left his start Sunday against the Tigers after just two innings. He was sent for diagnostics later that evening and had a MRI and X-rays taken on Monday, and said that doctors had actually pinpointed the triceps instead of the elbow -- a good sign.

 

"It's just a little stiff," Karstens said. "I don't want to chance it too much. If you keep pushing it and pushing it, you're going to make it worse."

 

Torre called the news "outstanding." The Yankees plan to re-evaluate Karstens in the next few days, though general manager Brian Cashman was non-committal when asked if Karstens could avoid a stint on the 15-day disabled list.

 

"We'll see," Cashman said.

 

Karstens had been in serious competition to serve as New York's fifth starter, especially after ace Chien-Ming Wang went down to a Grade 1 right hamstring strain.

 

"That's why you try to line up as much depth as you can," Cashman said. "The season's going to start and we'll plug people in."

 

This is good news for now.

[example1]

the yankees have far more depth in the pitching department than the sox do. If the yankees fail due to pitching injuries/ineffectiveness' date=' then it isnt the FO's problem. They loaded the minors and gave Torre 7 starting pitchers from day 1.[/quote']

 

I guess. I mean, if by pitching depth you mean "guys who can fill in at a B-/C+ level" then perhaps. If you're including the actual talent then you're absolutely wrong. Matsuzaka is better than anyone in the Yankees system right now and I am SO GODDAMN HAPPY THE YANKEES DIDN'T GET HIM!!! I would take Schilling and Beckett over anyone the Yankees own currently, including the current condition of Phillip Hughes (although if we were talking about 5 years from now that could be a no-brainer in Hughes's direction) given their upside and experience in big games.

 

It's easy to brag about depth that hasn't manifested itself yet with guys like Chamberlin or Sanchez being your ace in the hole, but that type of depth doesn't bother me. Go ahead and bring up those guys to face Papi and Manny and watch them weep as the balls sail out of the yard. Much better pitchers have had the same thing happen.

[jacksonianmarch]

Example, couple things.

 

First off, Wang and Mussina were better than Schilling last yr. That isnt conjecture, that is fact.

 

Second off, the depth that we have comes in all varieties with all sorts of potential (to be both good or bad). Chamberlain does nothing for us this yr. Here is the list of candidates.

 

1. Wang

2. Mussina

3. Pettitte

4. Igawa

5. Pavano

 

The next 2 major league options

6. Karstens

7. Rasner

 

The next wave of MLB ready talent that is ready for a full season

8. Ohlendorf (180+ innings last yr, he is fully stretched out).

 

The future

9. Hughes

10. Clippard

11. Sanchez

 

The fringe

12. White

13. DeSalvo (had an abysmal yr last yr, hence why he is fringe)

 

Guys who could be rushed

14. Horne

15. Wright

 

All of the above options have played well in the lower levels of the minors and all will start at AA or higher. Note, none of them include angel reyes, ivan nova, dellin betances, ian kennedy, or joba chamberlain who all have very high ceilings.

 

Having depth is nice and not only do we have depth, we have depth with guys who are young. The worst part of watching a pitcher go down is watching the minor league journeyman take his place (read: Small, May, Redding, Henn, et al who took the mound in 05). Sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle but all of those options are short term, right now options. Other annoying things that come along with an injury in your rotation is when you have a minor leaguer come up who has no idea where the strike zone is. This creates heartburn and bad memories.

 

The one constant with all of the guys mentioned above (this does not go for Sanchez or Horne who have some bouts of control problems) is control. You get depth with guys who wont walk the park and you will get them deeper into games. This saves your bullpen. Hence, our depth gives us the worry that maybe they will get hit hard. Yet at the same time, we know we will see strikes, we know they will give us innings and it will be a look to the future rather than offering some schmuck a start here and there.

 

On the other hand, the sox "depth" is laughable. This is because their best pitching prospects are not ready for the show. Your best #5 pitcher will rot in long relief or even in AAA (Hansack). Tavarez is a joke on the hill and was way worse than his ERA indicated last yr. This happened with Chacon in 2005 and eventually he came back to earth. After Hansack, you have Gabbard, Snyder, and Pauley. Gabbard and Pauley walk the park and Snyder just doesnt have major league stuff anymore. This is my point. With Beckett's history, with Tavarez likelihood of folding, with Schilling and Wake's age, the depth in the rotation should have been addressed better than this. Trust me on this one. If Tim Redding (or someone of his ilk) starts a game for the sox this yr, please turn off the TV, put down the remote and walk away.

[ORS]

I find it funny that Karstens and Rasner are part of this "depth". Karstens/Rasner is Yankee for Pauley/Gabbard. Those two certainly aren't on my "depth" chart, at least not my ideal one. The season will more than likely be a disappointment for whichever team has to endure more starts from either of these dynamic duos.

[jacksonianmarch]

you couldnt be more wrong ORS.

 

Karstens 3.67MiLB career ERA

>6IP per start over last 2 seasons

1.29 career MiLB WHIP

1.20 MLB WHIP last yr

2.29B/9IP MiLB career

 

Rasner 3.44 career MiLB ERA

5.6IP per start last 2 yrs

1.29 career MiLB WHIP

1.08 career MLB WHIP

2.39 BB/9IP MiLB career

 

Gabbard 4.23 career MiLB ERA

5.6IP per start last 2 yrs

1.37 career MiLB WHIP

1.56 career MLB WHIP

3.9 BB/9IP MiLB career

 

Pauley 3.91 career MiLB ERA

5.7IP per start last 2 yrs

1.35 career MiLB WHIP

2.31 career MLB WHIP

1.35BB/9IP MiLB career

 

as you can see, Rasner, Karstens and Pauley are accurate. Gabbard gives up way too many baserunners via the free pass and it continued in Boston to a higher degree. Of the 4, Karstens is the most durable. Both Rasner and Karstens allow fewer baserunners than the Boston duo on the whole and they kept it up over 10 starts coming down the stretch last yr.

 

Listen, I am not saying Karstens and Rasner are ideal SP options. Not in the least. Both project as back of the rotation starter if they project in the rotation at all. But both of them have been more successful than the sox duo and it carried over into their starts at the big league level. And seeing as they keep their walks down and have a history of keeping their total baserunners down, they have the higher propensity of lasting longer.

 

All 4 lack 2 plus pitches. Guys like Rasner live off the plus curve and a MLB average sinker. A guy like Karstens has 4 MLB average pitches but he can locate all of them on a dime (reminds me of a Jeff Suppan type) Of the 4, I have a feeling Karstens makes the rotation of one MLB club at some point and stays. Once Hughes and Co. hit the big leagues, Karstens may be on his way to the NL.

[jacksonianmarch]

and this is why I dont even have a guy like Marquez on there. He is being rated by some as a top 10 yankees prospect who will start at AA. But his career WHIP is in the 1.42 range. When you dont have power stuff and you allow that many baserunners, you have no shot.

[ORS]

MiLB numbers - the MLB samples are too small for data comparison

 

Pitcher      K/9      H/9     BB/9      HR/9

Rasner      6.87     9.19      2.39      0.89
Karstens    7.43     9.31      2.29      0.72
Pauley      7.03     9.39      2.74      0.85
Gabbard     7.17     8.47      3.86      0.65

 

Gabbard does give up the free-pass more like you say, but he also is bit harder to hit. These guys are cut from the same cloth. Take off the pinstriped glasses, and you'll see it.

[Mr Crunchy]

ors

why dont you ask him to stop breathing

this is the same guy that told me carl pavano would win 20 jarret wright 18 and rj 26 in 2005

[TheKilo]

MiLB numbers - the MLB samples are too small for data comparison

 

Pitcher      K/9      H/9     BB/9      HR/9

Rasner      6.87     9.19      2.39      0.89
Karstens    7.43     9.31      2.29      0.72
Pauley      7.03     9.39      2.74      0.85
Gabbard     7.17     8.47      3.86      0.65

 

Gabbard does give up the free-pass more like you say, but he also is bit harder to hit. These guys are cut from the same cloth. Take off the pinstriped glasses, and you'll see it.

 

le pwnt

[jacksonianmarch]

ors

why dont you ask him to stop breathing

this is the same guy that told me carl pavano would win 20 jarret wright 18 and rj 26 in 2005

 

I am not making a prediction numerically on Karstens or Rasner. Just think that when you watched Pauley or Gabbard throw (surprisingly I saw all of Pauley's starts and a few of Gabbard's) they were timid and had trouble with baserunners. Karstens and Rasner did not have that problem as they have better control than Gabbard and Pauley is just way too easy to hit. BTW, say what you want, I'll take their late season performance over the sox guys, even though it was a small sample. 10 starts and both of them outpitched our #4 and our #5 from a yr ago.

[TheKilo]

I am not making a prediction numerically on Karstens or Rasner. Just think that when you watched Pauley or Gabbard throw (surprisingly I saw all of Pauley's starts and a few of Gabbard's) they were timid and had trouble with baserunners. Karstens and Rasner did not have that problem as they have better control than Gabbard and Pauley is just way too easy to hit. BTW' date=' say what you want, I'll take their late season performance over the sox guys, even though it was a small sample. 10 starts and both of them outpitched our #4 and our #5 from a yr ago.[/quote']

 

And Tavarez did even better than that.

[example1]

I just don't understand how having "young guys" is having depth. To me that's having "young guys". Depth is having Bronson Arroyo as your 6th pitcher. Depth means guys who are not question marks but who will come in and provide MLB Average or above without having to go through their first game or second game. I would LOVE to see 90% of the guys you're writing about facing the Sox lineup in an important game. Given what they've done to guys like Pavano and Clemens in the past I see no reason to fear Karstens. Not in the slightest.

 

Are you saying that going into a playoff series you're going to be happy with the so-called depth mentioned above?

[jacksonianmarch]

I am not comfortable going into the playoffs with our rotation at all. I am very comfortable going in with our rotation plus its depth going into the regular season. In the regular season, all we need is a guy like Karstens or Rasner to give 6IP of 4 or less runs per and 75% of the time, we win those games. Neither will dominate and neither would be good options to pitch in the playoffs. But against the DRays while CMW is out? I'd take my chances vs a walk machine like Gabbard.

[riverside sluggers]

Another Yankee pitcher down, minor I know

 

rotoworld

J. Brent Cox recently underwent surgery to repair a ligament in his elbow and could miss much of the season.

 

This after Cox suffered a broken pitching hand in a fight in December. The former University of Texas closer should reemeerge as a quality relief prospect, but he has a lot of work ahead of him.

[example1]

I am not comfortable going into the playoffs with our rotation at all. I am very comfortable going in with our rotation plus its depth going into the regular season. In the regular season' date=' all we need is a guy like Karstens or Rasner to give 6IP of 4 or less runs per and 75% of the time, we win those games. Neither will dominate and neither would be good options to pitch in the playoffs. But against the DRays while CMW is out? I'd take my chances vs a walk machine like Gabbard.[/quote']

 

Yeah, but Gabbard isn't in the rotation currently. I just get the impression that you're trying to make yourself feel better like "If the Red Sox were in this crappy situation they would be worse off than the Yankees are currently". That, to me, is a very small diamond in the rough. Injuries hurt any team. Period. No team looks forward to putting its non-star minor leaguers in the rotation. It's not a good thing, no matter how rosy or silver you make your glasses or clouds.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah' date=' but Gabbard isn't in the rotation currently. I just get the impression that you're trying to make yourself feel better like "If the Red Sox were in this crappy situation they would be worse off than the Yankees are currently". That, to me, is a very small diamond in the rough. Injuries hurt any team. Period. No team looks forward to putting its non-star minor leaguers in the rotation. It's not a good thing, no matter how rosy or silver you make your glasses or clouds.[/quote']

 

no, Gabbard is not in the rotation. At the same time, Tavarez is, and when you take into account his 1.5 WHIP, you are burning the pen every 5th time out. Your best 5th starter is Hansack, and soon Theo will realize it. At the same time, our injuries at this point are relatively minor. But our rotation has Pussano and a circa 40 yr old Mike Mussina. There will be injuries along the way. You guys have Beckett, Schill, and Wake. There will be injuries along the way.

[jacksonianmarch]

Another Yankee pitcher down, minor I know

 

rotoworld

 

not really all that minor. I am very annoyed at this one. Cox had been absolutely dominant to this point and he gets by on pinpoint accuracy, a biting sinker and a plus slider. He would have been the perfect middle relief option should anyone go down, and I have a feeling he was slated to replace Vizcaino who was acquired as a stopgap. Now Cox will be rehabbing for a long time and likely wont be MLB ready until 2009.

[Mr Crunchy]

even with paps heading into the pen i find our starters to be in much better shape than ny

face it

carl pavano,who hasnt gotten a soul out in a tight situation since he was in miami,is getting the ball opening day...think about that over your coffee and if you dont have heartburn or s*** pains then you aint a fan,just a puppet