Papelbon is the closer according ESPN

[Dana Kiecker]

just unbuckle your britches and bend over.. ill show you how

[jacksonianmarch]

you sick f***.

[RobZombie]

The goal here isn't for Papelbon to gain velocity' date=' but to maintain it. Endurance is what is required, and you apparently think endurance comes from some other means than doing more of the activity. This contradicts all conventional wisdom and common sense. If you want to be able to run at a given pace for a longer distance, then you run more. If you want to keep throwing the ball hard for longer, you throw more. I don't need a website to tell me that. I would like to hear the alternative, though.[/quote']

 

No matter how hard you trained could you run just as fast for a much longer period of time? Or do you now want to tell me that you ran a marathon at the same speed as a 40 just by increasing your endurance? Just as some sprinters can't even dream of being top flight long-distance runners, some top relievers can't maintain their velocity over long periods of time no matter how hard they train. Now unless you want to tell me that you were a top sprinter in high-school and trained yourself to be a top-long distance runner, I don't see how your experience is relevant.

 

To further illustrate the point. There are a few pitchers like J.J. Putz or Bobby Jenks who are devestating for an inning and can throw 97. Why don't their teams put them in the rotation? After all if all it took was a little "building" of endurance, these teams would have Cy Young award winners on their hands with not a lot of effort. In Chicago's case, they probably have a couple of other guys who wouldn't make bad closers too. The reason this isn't done is because it can't be done. Bobby Jenks would throw in the high 90s over 7 innings no matter how hard he trained and would hence be a less effective pitcher. He'd probably have to change his entire motion just to get the same velocity with less effort per pitch.

 

Guys who throw in the mid 90s are rare in and of themselves. But guys who are able to throw in the mid 90s and maintain it past 30 pitches are even rarer still. Also once you've been pitching for a while, trying to train your body to throw just as hard over a longer period of time, is near impossible. Not only do you need to gain arm strength, but you also need to improve your mechanics as well to put less strain on every pitch. When you've been pitching the same way for many years that's tough to change.

 

Again, I'm sure that there are guys who run a 4.4 40 and can then train themselves to run a 2:15 marathon but its incredibly rare.

[Dana Kiecker]

You are a tool..

 

Both achievements take hard work but also natural ability.

 

Comparing a marathon runner to a sprinter is assinine.. its a different sport..

 

Does your retarded brain know no bounds?

[ORS]

Going from an elite 40 yd sprinter to an elite marathoner is unlikely. But are we asking Papelbon to improve his endurance by that type of magnitude? The marathon is, get ready for it, 1144 times longer. We want Papelbon to go from an average of 15 pitches to an average of 100+. If you round it up that's 7:1. A more apt scenario would be trying to turn an elite 200-yd sprinter into an elite 1-mile runner. That's certainly possible. And, of course, we are talking about runners here, not pitchers. Endurance is only one variable of what makes an elite SP great.

 

Your examples of Jenks/et al are good ones, but that doesn't mean Papelbon couldn't extend his outings. He wouldn't be 95+ like he is now, but I don't think it outrageous to think he could sit at 92-94 and turn into an elite starter. I agree, it wouldn't be this year, but now we'll never know.

 

I can live with this decision. While I think it's shortsighted, there are good reasons to be in "Go For it Now" mode. I just hope that if they are going for it, they go all out, and don't pull up lame at the deadline if there are, and probably will be, holes to fill before October.

[Dana Kiecker]

They are going to need a catcher...

 

Mark it down. Willy Mo for a scrub f***er from the d- backs....

 

160M and a balky catcher at the helm.. Lou Gorman is that you?

[RobZombie]

Your examples of Jenks/et al are good ones, but that doesn't mean Papelbon couldn't extend his outings. He wouldn't be 95+ like he is now, but I don't think it outrageous to think he could sit at 92-94 and turn into an elite starter. I agree, it wouldn't be this year, but now we'll never know.

 

Remember that his split finger wouldn't be as effective if he was throwing in the low 90s. So yeah he'd have to develop another plus pitch to be an elite starter.

 

Of course anything is possible and he's got a better chance of becoming an elite starter than Abe Alvarez but that doesn't mean he's going to do it. The Red Sox have to look at what the chances are that Papelbon would ever become an elite starter versus the chances, which are as high as they can be, that he will be an elite starter. I'm sure you do the same thing when you are going to Vegas and making expected probability bets.

 

Bottom line is that for a pitcher like Papelbon who currently is showing trouble maintaining his velocity...its very difficult to turn that around especially at age 26 no matter how hard you train.

[RobZombie]

Your examples of Jenks/et al are good ones, but that doesn't mean Papelbon couldn't extend his outings. He wouldn't be 95+ like he is now, but I don't think it outrageous to think he could sit at 92-94 and turn into an elite starter. I agree, it wouldn't be this year, but now we'll never know.

 

No it doesn't mean its impossible. It just means the odds are long. With the analogy of the runners. Yes it does happen where top 100 yard sprinters become top medium distance runners, but its very difficult to do.

 

Also remember that Papelbon's splitter isn't as effective if he doesn't have the plus plus fastball anymore. So we are talking about him developing another plus plus secondary pitch if he's going to be a top starter throwing in the low 90s. Again while possible, its very tough to do.

 

If the Red Sox are reasonable they have to weigh unknown outcomes. The probability that he's going to become an elite starter versus the probability (which is as close to certain as you are going to get in baseball) that he'd be a top closer. It also matters how long it takes for this to happen. In my opinion the chances of Papelbon becoming an elite starter are low enough that it doesn't make sense to try him out as a starter. That doesn't mean that the odds are ZERO...it just means they aren't high enough to risk throwing away the season.