Dellin Betances, the myth, the legend

[jacksonianmarch]

Kid was a first round talent who commited to Vandy, standing at 6'7" and 215lbs. He told all MLB teams that the only team he would sign with was the yankees, and that he'd go to school otherwise. The yankees drafted him in the 8th round and gave him a 1mil signing bonus, well over slot. He came out as a 2 pitch pitcher, throwing a 88-90mph fastball and a loopy curve with pisspoor mechanics. Over the span of a few minor league months, Nardi Contreras fixed his mechanics to lower his BB rate and maximize his fastball. His fastball went from sitting in the high 80s to sitting around 93 with it going as high as 98 in 30+ short season innings. He also turned his curve from plus potential to second best in the entire minor league organization (only behind Hughes) and learned a changeup that quickly became a plus pitch (and one of the top 5 changeup in the organization). He was invited to ST to get a feel for what the majors is like before eventually being ticketed for A ball in Charleston. But that may change, he may be headed a bit higher.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/495574p-417572c.html

 

The kid appears to have grown 3 inches and added 15 pounds of muscle to his frame. He now stands at 6'10" and 230lbs. He worked out incessantly this past offseason at a speed camp where his mechanics were further honed and he now throws 96 on average, at 19, from a 6'10" frame. Thing is, the kid may still be growing. Sounds like a freak of nature and should be fun to see in ST before he will get sent down.

[Manny Goes Boom]

f***! He grew three inches AFTER high school? Wow.

 

So wait, if you say he's first round talent, but got selected in the 8th round, why'd he slip?

[jacksonianmarch]

I had heard he stated he would only sign with the yankees. But I just asked one of the scout guys and they said that is not the case, although he did let it be known that he wanted to go to NY, he never mandated it. His demands were in the 7 figures and most teams knew it. He had a commit to Vandy as well and said that he wouldnt sign for anything less than a mil. At the time he was topping out in the mid 90s but he was so damn inconsistent that he had days where his FB wasnt above 88. His curve was a plus pitch but his mechanics were so damn sloppy that he couldnt locate it. He was a project to many teams, so the yankees used their might to sign him.

 

Turns out that he is a workaholic and took extremely well to their suggestions. His mechanics were fixed and he was consistently in the low 90s, hitting as high as 98 and his curve blossomed and he then learned the change. Now with added height and the all important 15-20 pounds of weight, he is something to behold.

 

BTW, baseball prospectus is another good site for minor leaguers. They have a "best case scenario" part where most of the solid prospects are #1-#2 in projection. Betances' BCS was absolute monster.

[jacksonianmarch]

btw, I was wrong with his age. He turns 19 in March.

[Manny Goes Boom]

I see. He wanted the money.

 

Well I read the article, and it sounds like the kids only problem is a consistent windup, which it said he's working on. He should be interesting to see.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I googled looking for pictures of him...but they're all him by himself. I want to see him next to someone else for a means of comparison.

[jacksonianmarch]

I googled looking for pictures of him...but they're all him by himself. I want to see him next to someone else for a means of comparison.

 

me too. I talked with one of the scout guys who said that he was listed last yr at 6'8 or 6'9 but many people didnt believe that he was that tall, most thought he was 6'7. But when asking the scout guys about it, they did say that he has since grown and very well could be at the height the article claims him to be.

 

As for his mechanics, he is light yrs ahead of the typical tall man syndrome guys were at his age. Randy couldnt find control until he was in his late 20s. Daniel Cabrera still cannot find his control. Betances has found very good control thus far. His problem will be repeating the delivery over a full season. When you learn new mechanics, it isnt just a repeat and see how it does thing, you need to incorporate it into your very being so you forget your old ways. Lots of kids fall into that trap, learning something well then reverting after the winter off. Word is that he has maintained the mechanics as he has been constantly working this offseason rather than sitting on his ass or just working out like a lot of other prospects over the winter.

 

As for his handling, the yankees will be very careful of him. They typically come up with some sort of minor "injury" at about 90-100IP in their first yr. Hughes had a "sore shoulder" but when you ask him about it, he says that he was fine, just typical shoulder tiredness when he was shut down with "shoulder tendonitis". The Yankees like slow progression.

 

90-100IP- first full season

140-150IP- second full yr

180-190IP- third full yr

unlimited but cautious after that.

 

Hughes is at the third step of the regimen. Betances will likely only see A/A+ work this yr with a max of 100IP.

[jacksonianmarch]

what I find interesting is how much the yankees improved their minor leagues in one calendar yr.

 

Trades-

Sanchez- power pitcher with ace potential and huge frame- Would be a top 5 prospect

Whelan- power reliever with closer potential and big time arm- would be a top 10 prospect

Ohlendorf- sinker innings eater with solid repertoire- would be a top 15 prospect

Gonzalez- defensive SS finally showing he has offensive potential- would be top 15-20 prospect

Jackson- Power armed sinker pitcher with big frame- would be top 20 prospect

Claggett- power armed reliever with closer potential- #13 in tigers org, would be top 20-30 in yankees org

 

Then onto the actual list (pretrades)-

 

Betances #3 - 8th round

Montero #4 - top INTL signing

Kennedy #6 - 1st round

Chamberlain #11 - supp 1st round

Melancon #13 - 9th round

McCallister #18 - 3rd round

 

then you also have Kontos, Norton, Hilligoss, and McCutchen making the top 50 later on. They had a very effective yr fixing a broken farm.

[yeszir]

Wait, so he committed to Vandy and then signed with the Yankees. f*** him.

 

We would have an insane rotation if this guy is as good as you say he is.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, he did. He became one hell of a pitcher under yankee instruction, though. Chances are, if he is as hard a worker as the scouts say he is, then he'd be just as good through college instruction. Think about it, 6'10" at 18 and still growing with control of a high 90s fastball, a plus plus curve and plus change. He is going to look a whole lot better than big ugly did in pinstripes, I'll tell you.

 

He would dominate college like nobody else since Prior did. Here is his small sample short season #s.

 

7GS 0-1 W/L 23.1IP 14H 3ER 27K 7BB 1.16ERA 0.90WHIP

 

that is against the best of the 06 college class. Nasty s***. And this was with less velocity and less height/weight than he has now.

[TheKilo]

*Paints walls with brain*

[jacksonianmarch]

hahahahaha

[jacksonianmarch]

*Paints walls with brain*

 

is that more because you are worried about big bad Betances and our killer farm, or because you are sick of my incessant badgering!

[example1]

Wake me up in 4 years when he matters.

 

 

Actually, he looks like he has the frame and the franchise to find success in the league.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wake me up in 4 years when he matters.

 

 

Actually, he looks like he has the frame and the franchise to find success in the league.

 

That is the point. I dont typically get too excited about kids straight out of HS. College kids, so long as they are more polished are okay to get a bit excited about, but they have to hit AA before I start pencilling them into future plans. But when you are talking about an 18 yr old kid who is that big, has three plus pitches, good control and power to boot, you cannot help but think about the possibilities.

 

BTW, ETA right now is mid 2009.

 

Ya know, I am excited about Chamberlain, optimistic about McCallister, nervous about Kennedy, but Betances ceiling is something I am real excited about. He trumps em all from that draft.

[TheKilo]

is that more because you are worried about big bad Betances and our killer farm' date=' or because you are sick of my incessant badgering![/quote']

 

I'll go with the consistent pinstripe ballwashing.

[jacksonianmarch]

then paint away! WOWZAH.

[TheKilo]

then paint away! WOWZAH.

 

I'm serious. To hear you speak every signing, every prospect, every player that happens concerning the Yankees is golden.

 

Have they made a bad move this offseason? Is there anything you'd criticize?

[CrespoBlows]

That is the point. I dont typically get too excited about kids straight out of HS. College kids, so long as they are more polished are okay to get a bit excited about, but they have to hit AA before I start pencilling them into future plans. But when you are talking about an 18 yr old kid who is that big, has three plus pitches, good control and power to boot, you cannot help but think about the possibilities.

 

BTW, ETA right now is mid 2009.

 

Ya know, I am excited about Chamberlain, optimistic about McCallister, nervous about Kennedy, but Betances ceiling is something I am real excited about. He trumps em all from that draft.

 

You got to be s***ing me.

 

You were amped about two 24 year old prospects who dominated low A ball.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm serious. To hear you speak every signing, every prospect, every player that happens concerning the Yankees is golden.

 

Have they made a bad move this offseason? Is there anything you'd criticize?

 

Absolutely, we always do.

 

-26 mil to talk to Igawa was a bad move, but the fact that it doesnt count against the cap is useful

-Not outbidding you guys for Matsuzaka will bite us

-I have said before that the offseason contained moves that have us take a half step back to take 2 steps forward. For 2007, there are a bunch of moves to criticize. Sheffield deal for 2007 is lopsided. RJ deal for 2007 is likely to be lopsided if RJ takes the hill and if Vizcaino is decided average. And if RJ takes the hill and we have an early pitching injury, our lack of depth at the major league level will be shown (like I said, we have MLB ready prospects who need at least 2 months)

-relying on Pavano for a starting role is a gamble, a MAJOR gamble

-Why did we draft Kennedy in the 1st round? I think he is a safe prospect, but I'd rather have a guy with higher upside (say Bard).

-I would have taken Schmidt or Matsu over Pettitte, but not Zito.

 

But we didnt lock into anything long term and stupid and we have created one hell of a farm system. I liked our offseason thus far.

[jacksonianmarch]

You got to be s***ing me.

 

You were amped about two 24 year old prospects who dominated low A ball.

 

No, I was never amped. I was saying that our first day draft to this point produced no duds. TO THIS POINT. Those older prospects are likely to never get past AA, I know that, but right now they are right on track for their ceilings. No derailment to this point.

[CrespoBlows]

No' date=' I was never amped. I was saying that our first day draft to this point produced no duds. TO THIS POINT. Those older prospects are likely to never get past AA, I know that, but right now they are right on track for their ceilings. No derailment to this point.[/quote']

 

No, it was more like, "Wow, this 50 year old prospect his .100 in A ball, future Pujols, no question. LOL SLURP GOD LOL SLURP!"

 

Re-read your thread. You were labeling McAllister an ace only after a few games in the GCL, Betances you're doing the same, as with Chamberlin.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, it was more like, "Wow, this 50 year old prospect his .100 in A ball, future Pujols, no question. LOL SLURP GOD LOL SLURP!"

 

Re-read your thread. You were labeling McAllister an ace only after a few games in the GCL, Betances you're doing the same, as with Chamberlin.

 

Crespo, McCallister is a HS prospect who most scouting sites will readily tell you has a ceiling of ace/#2. I was surprised that guys with high ceilings were left in the 3rd round, but I was told later by one of the scouts that his value was 2nd-3rd round. He's a polished HS pitcher which makes him very useful, but he is still a major prospect as he hasnt learned how to use his power/polish to develop a power game. ie, he doesnt put hitters away like a power pitcher should. He doesnt have the power mentality and that hurt him.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, it was more like, "Wow, this 50 year old prospect his .100 in A ball, future Pujols, no question. LOL SLURP GOD LOL SLURP!"

 

Re-read your thread. You were labeling McAllister an ace only after a few games in the GCL, Betances you're doing the same, as with Chamberlin.

 

Chamberlain had a freaky line in the hawaiian league. Power pitcher, hitting 99 who had 3BB in 40IP. It is freaky, ou dont do that by accident. That caused him to jump in a lot of scouts eyes. You talk with PP from scout.com and they will say that he was ranked 11th out of the 50 because of his injury history, but after the hawaiian league, he'd be top 6 or 7. You look at rankings that came out after that league, like BA and they have Chamberlain as #5. A freakish stat and performance with ace stuff.

 

Betances to me when he signed was a guy with loads of promise. Now that he has grown 3 more inches, he is a freak of nature. Control, power, repertoire and 6'10"? That is freakish. Maybe I'm just into freaks, who knows.

[ORS]

Jacko, you are straight full of s***. No other way to describe it. One of your first criticisms of the Sox system when you joined was a lot of top prospects below AA, and according to you nothing really mattered until AA. Of course, this was all before you decided to subscribe to scout.com and have a daily jerk session while perusing the Yankee section. You've done a full 180 from your own dictum, and it hasn't just been for Betances. You are doing it for all of them. Care to explain?

[jacksonianmarch]

Jacko' date=' you are straight full of s***. No other way to describe it. One of your first criticisms of the Sox system when you joined was a lot of top prospects below AA, and according to you nothing really mattered until AA. Of course, this was all before you decided to subscribe to scout.com and have a daily jerk session while perusing the Yankee section. You've done a full 180 from your own dictum, and it hasn't just been for Betances. You are doing it for all of them. Care to explain?[/quote']

 

Have already said, I dont start pencilling them into my rotation/counting on their contributions until they surpass AA. Betances has an amazing ceiling. Where have I said he would be OUR ace? He has ace potential, but when have I put him with Wang, Mussina, Hughes, etc?

 

Excitement about ceiling vs beginning to see them realize it are two different things. And to be honest with you, excitement about Betances nor Chamberlain didnt hit until the NY media got a hold of me. Also with further deprivation from baseball, the more delirious I get, sorry.

 

Like Bard for instance. I have said he has a Cy Young ceiling, but has a long way to go from realizing it. If you were excited about his ceiling, I'd be happy for you. You can have an ETA assuming everything goes right. But pencilling him into a rotation by saying something like Bard, Bowden, Paps, Matsu etc would be amazing is premature and I'll call you on it.

 

Betances has one hell of a ceiling. He is starting to realize it in terms of mechanics and stuff, but he hasnt in innings and numbers. Once he hits AA and succeeds, he'll be pencilled in as a starter in our rotation. Till then, he's excitement for the future, but far from close to happening or a sure thing. Injury and mechanics could easily derail his limitless potential. At AA, they surpass the biggest obstacle. That is when they are in my plans.

[jacksonianmarch]

also, ORS, we all get a little overzealous about our teams some times. We yankee fans are here to keep sox fans from going too far overboard drinking the punch. I'd only expect you guys to do the same in return.

[yeszir]

also' date=' ORS, we all get a little overzealous about our teams some times. We yankee fans are here to keep sox fans from going too far overboard drinking the punch. I'd only expect you guys to do the same in return.[/quote']

 

Are you asking us to punch you in the face? I'll do it.

[jacksonianmarch]

sounds good! Haha.