Papelbon shut down for rest of season; his thoughts on 07

[MC Hammer]

Good thing no one asks you' date=' because you are wrong. Arm usage is more easily controlled and monitored as a starting pitcher. Relievers go in when the leverage is high, which could be several days in a row, and they tend to overthrow because of the leverage of the spots they go in. If health concern is a factor at all, expect him to be a SP. Put that in your motocycle and smoke it.[/quote']

It's not about being able to monitor his arm. Monitoring his arm has nothing to do with anything.

 

When you draft a closer and ask him to start you're already putting strain on his arm by making him pitch a ton more than he is used to. Then you tell that starter instead of having to throw 200 innings ... you're going to let him close and only have to throw 75 or so, then you're gonna tell him that he needs to be able to throw 200 innings again the next year.

 

Doubling then cutting in half, then again doubling the number of pitches a pitcher is going to throw in a season will surely destroy your arm.

 

And what do you do if he fails as a starter ... make him a closer again? I don't think theres a pitcher in baseball that can last flip flopping between starter and closer like that.

[a700hitter]

It seems foolish and dangerous to be jerking this guy around.

[MC Hammer]

It seems foolish and dangerous to be jerking this guy around.

If we both agree on something we can't possible be wrong.

[ORS]

Monitoring his arm has everything to do with injury concerns. The most injury proned time for a pitcher is when their arm is fatigued. As a starter he can be put on a pitch count as he builds stamina. As a closer he will pitch in situations where his arm isn't fully rested from previous work. Do you really not see this?

 

Thanks for trying.

[MC Hammer]

Monitoring his arm has everything to do with injury concerns. The most injury proned time for a pitcher is when their arm is fatigued. As a starter he can be put on a pitch count as he builds stamina. As a closer he will pitch in situations where his arm isn't fully rested from previous work. Do you really not see this?

 

Thanks for trying.

OK so now instead of having a dominant closer we have a pitcher who is gonna get yanked in the 4th inning cause his pitch count is too high. SWEET!

 

Do you really not see that going from throwing 75 innings to 200 innings to 75 innings to 200 innings is going to destroy his arm?

[a700hitter]

OK so now instead of having a dominant closer we have a pitcher who is gonna get yanked in the 4th inning cause his pitch count is too high. SWEET!

 

Do you really not see that going from throwing 75 innings to 200 innings to 75 innings to 200 innings is going to destroy his arm?

I expressed those concerns about him in ST. I though he should max out at 140 innings. Sox management was not looking for 200 innings from him, because they had planned to start the season with him in the pen and to ease into a starting role. I don't think they will pitch him 200 innings in 2007, unless they want to blow out his arm. I think they should get a starter that can pitch 200 innings.

[MC Hammer]

I expressed those concerns about him in ST. I though he should max out at 140 innings. Sox management was not looking for 200 innings from him' date=' because they had planned to start the season with him in the pen and to ease into a starting role. I don't think they will pitch him 200 innings in 2007, unless they want to blow out his arm. I think they should get a starter that can pitch 200 innings.[/quote']

That's exactly the thing. If Paps can't give you 200 innings as a starter than why not let him be the dominant closer he is? Why take a full season ... maybe more to get his arm strength built back up ... if it's even possible ... when you could have him at 100% as the closer?

 

I just struggle to understand why you would waste a whole season trying to turn a good closer, who you turned into a starter, who you turned into a dominant closer back into a starter.

[ORS]

Nice overreaction. Again.

 

Where has he shown the type of wildness that would make you think he can't go 4 innings before hitting 100 pitches? Oh, that's right, he hasn't.

 

It's not about the total number of innings. It's about regular rest in between outings. Get this through your thick skull - regular rest means less outings under fatigue. It is much less stressful on the arm to throw 100 pitches on one day and rest for 4 days than it is to to throw 75 pitches in 3 of 5 days.

 

You keep saying moving him from reliever to starter to reliever to starter is going to melt his arm down. How so? He's moving from more stress to less stress on his arm. Yes, he will have to build stamina, but that can be monitored. Being a closer takes that opportunity away because you don't know when he'll be needed, so to maximize his effectiveness as a closer they'll have to use him when they need him, even if that means 3 consecutive games, which we saw this year. He had no arm problems last year as a starter, but he did at the end of this year as a closer.

[a700hitter]

But he hasn't pitched as a starter in the majors for a whole season. I don't think they will push him to 200 innings. Mark my words. He will not break 200 innings.

[ORS]

I just struggle to understand why you would waste a whole season trying to turn a good closer' date=' who you turned into a starter, who you turned into a dominant closer back into a starter.[/quote']

 

This tells the whole story. You struggle to understand it because you struggle with understanding baseball value. Frontline starters have more value than shutdown closers.

[MC Hammer]

Nice overreaction. Again.

 

Where has he shown the type of wildness that would make you think he can't go 4 innings before hitting 100 pitches? Oh, that's right, he hasn't.

Where has he shown the ability to be a MLB starter for a full season? Oh that's right he hasn't.

 

It's not about the total number of innings. It's about regular rest in between outings. Get this through your thick skull - regular rest means less outings under fatigue. It is much less stressful on the arm to throw 100 pitches on one day and rest for 4 days than it is to to throw 75 pitches in 3 of 5 days.

So I could throw 500 Innings in 365 days as long as I have the right amount of rest inbetween my throwing? Yeah I don't think so.

 

You keep saying moving him from reliever to starter to reliever to starter is going to melt his arm down. How so? He's moving from more stress to less stress on his arm. Yes, he will have to build stamina, but that can be monitored. Being a closer takes that opportunity away because you don't know when he'll be needed, so to maximize his effectiveness as a closer they'll have to use him when they need him, even if that means 3 consecutive games, which we saw this year. He had no arm problems last year as a starter, but he did at the end of this year as a closer.

The fact is that you're changing the stress on his arm every year. One year you have the stress that closing puts on it ... then you change that type of stress to the stress a starter has on his arm .... then you change it again ... then you change it again.

 

I just cannot understand why you're trying to make our dominate closer be a starter ... it makes no sense. Why not have Ortiz play first so we can get another DH? Because Ortiz is the best DH in the game, you say? Well Paps is the best closer.

 

For once we need to learn something from the Yankees. When you find a dominate closer you let him close.

[ORS]

So I could throw 500 Innings in 365 days as long as I have the right amount of rest inbetween my throwing? Yeah I don't think so.

Nice horseshit hypothetical there. Keep reaching.

 

 

The fact is that you're changing the stress on his arm every year. One year you have the stress that closing puts on it ... then you change that type of stress to the stress a starter has on his arm .... then you change it again ... then you change it again.

Yes, you are changing it from year to year, but only because relieving is more stressful. Whether he's throwing in relief or starting, he's still throwing a baseball, you get that, right?

 

I just cannot understand why you're trying to make our dominate closer be a starter ... it makes no sense. Why not have Ortiz play first so we can get another DH? Because Ortiz is the best DH in the game, you say? Well Paps is the best closer.

 

For once we need to learn something from the Yankees. When you find a dominate closer you let him close.

We don't play Ortiz at first not because he's the best DH, but because he has a history of knee problems and his defense isn't necessarily spectacular. We know that, though. If we didn't know it, it would be stupid to not try him there. Same thing with Papelbon.

 

Rivera isn't a closer if he made it as a starter. Papelbon hasn't failed as a starter yet. Not trying him there is wasting the chance to know if he can provide the ultimate pitching value. And, once again, nothing is precluding them from having him relieve after 2007 if he doesn't make it. Choosing to start him doesn't eliminate the option of having him close in the future, no matter how much you stamp your feet about it, that option just doesn't go away.

[MC Hammer]

Nice horseshit hypothetical there. Keep reaching.

 

 

 

Yes, you are changing it from year to year, but only because relieving is more stressful. Whether he's throwing in relief or starting, he's still throwing a baseball, you get that, right?

 

 

We don't play Ortiz at first not because he's the best DH, but because he has a history of knee problems and his defense isn't necessarily spectacular. We know that, though. If we didn't know it, it would be stupid to not try him there. Same thing with Papelbon.

 

Rivera isn't a closer if he made it as a starter. Papelbon hasn't failed as a starter yet. Not trying him there is wasting the chance to know if he can provide the ultimate pitching value. And, once again, nothing is precluding them from having him relieve after 2007 if he doesn't make it. Choosing to start him doesn't eliminate the option of having him close in the future, no matter how much you stamp your feet about it, that option just doesn't go away.

Not using Papelbon as the closer is a waste of his talents. There aren't many pitchers that have the balls to be as good a closer as Paps is. You have to be a special kind of pitcher to close and Paps is that pitcher.

 

You would honestly rather have Paps in the rotation and a Foulke/Timlin/Hansen/FA cluster f*** trying to close games out? Personally I'd like to gaurrenty myself 40 wins in close games.

[example1]

Not using Papelbon as the closer is a waste of his talents. There aren't many pitchers that have the balls to be as good a closer as Paps is. You have to be a special kind of pitcher to close and Paps is that pitcher.

 

You have to be a specialer kind of pitcher to win 20 games a year. IF Papelbon is capable of that then we have to use him there. Nobody knows if he is or not, but you have to try. He's young enough to be able to move back to the closer role for his age 27 season if necessary.

 

You would honestly rather have Paps in the rotation and a Foulke/Timlin/Hansen/FA cluster f*** trying to close games out? Personally I'd like to gaurrenty myself 40 wins in close games.

 

Personally I would like to see the Sox get the best available closer and let that person battle it out with Foulke for the closer-role. I would like to have Papelbon slated to pitch 6-8 innings every 5th day and possibly winning 16-20 games NEXT year (with better things to come after that).

 

I think that Papelbon RE-learned how to pitch in really big situations, focusing when it really mattered. We all acknowledge how amazing he can be when he is totally in that "veins full of ice" mentality. He appears as good as Mariano at those times. Now if he can apply that as a starter you're looking at a guy who, very much like Pedro or Clemens or RJ in their primes, can not only get MOST guys out, but can also get guys out at the most important moments of the game.

 

We all would love it if Papelbon could be both the best closer and the best starter on our team, but he can't be both. I would love to see the Sox go after Brad Lidge in a move, perhaps part of trading Manny. Get Lidge, resign Foulke and keep working with Hansen over the offseason. Lidge, even in his more questionable state of this season, is better than most MLB closers, including guys on semi-successful teams like Bob Wickman or Todd Jones.

 

In any case you have to remain flexible enough to use your guys where they are best. If Papelbon WANTS to be a starter--even after all of his success and fanfare as a closer--perhaps he feels like that is where he would be most effective.

 

If Schilling pitches like he did this year and Beckett pitches like he occasionally did (and he certainly CAN more often) and Papelbon turns into what we think he can, then you're looking at three "should win" starters on our team. I would take that rotation along with Detroits and Minnesota's as one of the best in baseball. Add another good starter (say Matsuzaka or Zito or Schmidt) and you're looking at 4 "should wins". Put Wakefield or Tavarez or Hansack or Lester in that spot and you're golden.

 

Alot of that depends on the bullpen though, so of course you're right to be concerned about moving a guy like Papelbon out of there. I think it will be easier to build a competent '04 caliber bullpen than to find a SP of Papelbon's potential quality.

[MC Hammer]

You have to be a specialer kind of pitcher to win 20 games a year. IF Papelbon is capable of that then we have to use him there. Nobody knows if he is or not' date=' but you have to try. He's young enough to be able to move back to the closer role for his age 27 season if necessary.[/quote']

great lets just bounce him back and forth a few times and completely burn him out and make him hate being here ... sounds good.

[example1]

great lets just bounce him back and forth a few times and completely burn him out and make him hate being here ... sounds good.

 

a) he WANTS to start. He probably won't hate being here if he gets to start.

 

he already "bounced" from starter to closer. Do you think that was a bad move? Did that hurt him or spoil his ability to perform?

 

 

Look man, you have ONE chance to do this. Either he's a closer forever or he begins his career as a SP next year and still has the option of closing if that doesn't work.

 

The longer you wait the more risky it is.

[a700hitter]

Starting Papelbon is an unknown, an experiment. Using him as a closer is a sure thing. Take the sure thing and go get a couple of starters.

[ORS]

great lets just bounce him back and forth a few times and completely burn him out and make him hate being here ... sounds good.

Is this what your argument has regressed to after all other options were put to rest with logic and reason, he'll get pissed? Sad state of affairs in Hammerville.

[ORS]

Starting Papelbon is an unknown' date=' an experiment. Using him as a closer is a sure thing. Take the sure thing and go get a couple of starters.[/quote']

This isn't Let's Make a Deal. If they try him as a starter, the reliever option doesn't go away. If it did, then yes, I say take the sure thing, but that's not how it is.

[a700hitter]

This isn't Let's Make a Deal. If they try him as a starter' date=' the reliever option doesn't go away. If it did, then yes, I say take the sure thing, but that's not how it is.[/quote']It would go away for next year. They couldn't just pluck him out of the rotation in the middle of the year. Who would take the rotation spot? If they decide to go with him in the rotation, they will be forced to get a closer and they will forego getting another starter. THey can't make the switch in mid-season, because you'll already have a closer and you'll short your rotation by a starter. If it doesn't work, they ruin '07 for him and the team. Why take the chance when starters are available?

[jsinger121]

Theo has just confirmed that Papelbon will be coming into 07 as a starter in his postseason press conference.

[a700hitter]

Let's hope it works out as well as the closer thing. Whose available to get as a closer?

[jsinger121]

Gagne, Baez, maybe Lidge through a trade

[a700hitter]

Gagne' date=' Baez, maybe Lidge through a trade[/quote']What do you think the going price will be for Baez and Gagne?

[jsinger121]

What do you think the going price will be for Baez and Gagne?

 

Baez won't be much. maybe 4 mil a season for 2-3 years.....gagne will want 2 years probably but it depends on the guaranteed money. he will get a bunch of incentives.

[example1]

I say get all 3. Just spend the money and make it happen FO; make all three an offer they can't refuse.

[riverside sluggers]

rotoworld

Epstein said that it's the opinion of the medical staff that the switch would be the best thing for Papelbon's long-term health.

[ksushi]

Did any of you watch Gagne when he came back? The guy is more iffy than keith foulke. No way do I wanna see the Sox in a position where they are depending on eric f***ing gagne. That is suicide. He was topping out in the low ninties when he came back and promptly hit the DL afterwards. No way would I want to depend on that. The Sox should see if they can get a hold of Baez, Speier, and Cordero in set up and make a trade for a closer.