Blue Jays about to look tougher: Close to acquiring Bengie Molina

[Bruce]

You would be the first person I've heard say that about Matsui's fielding skills. He has an average arm but makes up for it with good footwork, excellent jump on flyballs and quick release. That's the scouting report most will give you on Matsui. You're selling him much too short than acceptable in a Sox-Yank debate.

 

Most, if not all, defensive metrics have Matsui as a below-average fielder.

 

 

Yankee Stadium RF is about the size of my living room, I don't worry too much about Sheff's speed out there. He can cover it perfectly fine.

 

Sheffield is a DH in RF. He shouldn't play more than 40 games in the field this year.

 

 

 

 

He's still right.

 

 

Over anyone's? Are you 100% sure aobut this? Are you just saying this because you like them as Sox players and have developed a loyalty to them (though I can't see how you can develop loyalty for Gonzales or Lowell yet), or you really mean that their defensive skills are that good. I dont want to go digging up names, but I'm pretty sure the Lowell-Gonzalez combo isn't the best in MLB.

 

Lowell is overrated, but I did find one metric (BP's FRAA) that had him as a very good third baseman. Most others had him at about average. Gonzalez is not nearly as good as his reputation. A number of metrics have him clearly below average, and I can only find one that has him even a little above average. Lowell-Gonzalez is not the best defensive combination in MLB, by any stretch. For that matter, the idea that Coco Crisp is going to be a great CFer is based on nothing as well: his career in CF has been decidedly mediocre. He was an above-average left fielder, but he is not a centerfielder.

 

 

 

 

It's better, I dont think it's superior.

 

Aren't "better" and "superior" the same thing?

[He Hate Me]

Most, if not all, defensive metrics have Matsui as a below-average fielder.

 

Sorry I dont buy into the rating fielders by some statistic. There's no way to measure what you see in person at how they approach a flyball, or how they play the ball off the wall. And what I see in Matsui as well as read from scouting reports is exactly what I said in my previous post. Average arm, good judgment on flyballs, plays balls well off the wall, quick release.

 

Sheffield is a DH in RF. He shouldn't play more than 40 games in the field this year.

 

I doubt that number is true, whatever the case it has no bearing on what I said about RF being a sandbox.

 

He's still right.

 

Lowell is overrated, but I did find one metric (BP's FRAA) that had him as a very good third baseman. Most others had him at about average. Gonzalez is not nearly as good as his reputation. A number of metrics have him clearly below average, and I can only find one that has him even a little above average. Lowell-Gonzalez is not the best defensive combination in MLB, by any stretch. For that matter, the idea that Coco Crisp is going to be a great CFer is based on nothing as well: his career in CF has been decidedly mediocre. He was an above-average left fielder, but he is not a centerfielder.

 

I am completely disregarding your argument here because you're basing it on some formula that some stats geek made up in his basement or programmed his computer to do. Thats not anything against you, I just think Defensive metrics or whatever is complete BS.

 

Aren't "better" and "superior" the same thing?

 

a cardboard box is better than nothing when its cold outside. Having a nice warm house is SUPERIOR to nothing.

[ORS]

No defensive metric is perfect, nor will one ever be, because every metric relies on an observers judgement. Was that an error or a bad hop? Should the 1B have made that catch or was it a wild throw? That said, if 3 or 4 metrics all paint the same picture, then it's pretty safe to assume that the picture is pretty valid, and statistics aren't biased like people's memories are.

 

Take Jeter for example. Those of you that watch him everyday are influenced by the spectacular, and I will give Cap'n Intagibles credit for being able to make the spectacular play. Every time he does the Statue of Liberty throw from deep in the hole, or dives into the stands, or ends up in death valley on a pop up, everyone goes "Wow, he's incredible in the field" and they forget the 2/3 errors he makes the same week. Rate, Rate2, FRAA/R, ZR, UZR, RF, and FP have him substantially below league average for his career. No, those stats aren't perfect, and they are influenced by who is on the field next to you. Jeter's two best statistical years, the last two, were when ARod was scooping up balls next to him.

[eZ_d0eS_iT]

Bengie Molina is fat.

 

brilliant observation! what's next, water is wet?

 

i agree that molina must have overestimated his value + the demand for his services were just not there...not with cheaper alternatives available. i still think he's got a good bat, is CLUTCH when it matters, and isn't too bad defensively. the only reason he wasn't resigned with anaheim is that his younger brother is gonna inherit the position while making room for prospect jeff mathis.

 

i agree that by himself he doesn't make a huge difference, but collectively, with all the other moves they've made in the offseason, toronto has really gone out of its way on paper to be a serious contender in the division.

[Bruce]

No defensive metric is perfect, nor will one ever be, because every metric relies on an observers judgement. Was that an error or a bad hop? Should the 1B have made that catch or was it a wild throw? That said, if 3 or 4 metrics all paint the same picture, then it's pretty safe to assume that the picture is pretty valid, and statistics aren't biased like people's memories are.

 

Take Jeter for example. Those of you that watch him everyday are influenced by the spectacular, and I will give Cap'n Intagibles credit for being able to make the spectacular play. Every time he does the Statue of Liberty throw from deep in the hole, or dives into the stands, or ends up in death valley on a pop up, everyone goes "Wow, he's incredible in the field" and they forget the 2/3 errors he makes the same week. Rate, Rate2, FRAA/R, ZR, UZR, RF, and FP have him substantially below league average for his career. No, those stats aren't perfect, and they are influenced by who is on the field next to you. Jeter's two best statistical years, the last two, were when ARod was scooping up balls next to him.

 

I just want to point out I wasn't talking about FP as a defensive metric, because it isn't one. Its a stupid piece of crap stat that is worth nothing. I use only metrics that actually measure how many balls a player is turning into outs versus hits. Even if they may or may not have been invented by a geek and/or his computer in an area that may look suspiciously similar to a basement.

[Bruce]

brilliant observation! what's next, water is wet?

 

You don't get invited to many parties, do you?

[Bruce]

Sorry I dont buy into the rating fielders by some statistic. There's no way to measure what you see in person at how they approach a flyball, or how they play the ball off the wall. And what I see in Matsui as well as read from scouting reports is exactly what I said in my previous post. Average arm, good judgment on flyballs, plays balls well off the wall, quick release.

 

I trust statistical evidence over the layman's ability to remember every defensive play by every fielder in baseball. Somehow, I think its more reliable.

 

I doubt that number is true, whatever the case it has no bearing on what I said about RF being a sandbox.

 

Its small, yes. But he still can't play it adequately.

 

 

I am completely disregarding your argument here because you're basing it on some formula that some stats geek made up in his basement or programmed his computer to do. Thats not anything against you, I just think Defensive metrics or whatever is complete BS.

 

I think your uninformed opinion is without value.

 

 

a cardboard box is better than nothing when its cold outside. Having a nice warm house is SUPERIOR to nothing.

 

http://thesaurus.reference.com/search?q=superior

 

My opinion is better than yours, while at the same time, also superior. Its a mystery.

[He Hate Me]

I trust statistical evidence over the layman's ability to remember every defensive play by every fielder in baseball. Somehow, I think its more reliable.

 

Well then I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this. You trust stats from a computer, I trust scouting reports.

 

Its small, yes. But he still can't play it adequately.

 

ok.

 

 

I guess I'm too old fashioned for this debate. You have all the computer generated metric formula stats. I can only rely on my eyes and what I read from scouting reports.

[ORS]

I just want to point out I wasn't talking about FP as a defensive metric, because it isn't one. Its a stupid piece of crap stat that is worth nothing. I use only metrics that actually measure how many balls a player is turning into outs versus hits. Even if they may or may not have been invented by a geek and/or his computer in an area that may look suspiciously similar to a basement.

I agree about FP, it is pretty worthless. I only included it to demonstrate the point that when 7 out of 7 defensive stats show that a player is below average, then it is safe to assume he is below average, despite what your eyes tell you.

[yankeessuck013]

First I heard of Bengie being pissed at the Angels.

 

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BBA_BLUE_JAYS_MOLINA_HILLENBRAND?SITE=NYBUE&SECTION=HOME

[jsinger121]

ya he wasn't too happy with them. said they never told him anything and he basically gave them everything he had since signing with them at 17. even helped the angels recruit bartolo colon.

[riverside sluggers]

Oh please Blue Jays. To hear FO execs talking smack about an opposing team like this 2 months before the season is set. Yeah good luck with your sub .500 pitcher (5 years/$55 million)who is mostly keen on giving up groundballs, weakned defense wont help him any. Or how about biggest contract given to a closer (5 years/$47 million) who just has 42 career saves and moving to more of a hitters park?

 

Bengie might be a good acquisition no doubt, but his stats show he doesnt like hitting at the Rogers Centre (.178 avg in 20 games). At least established AL east FO's like Sox & NY, let their players do the talking on the field

 

Toronto Sun: New Jays to put 'panic in the streets of Boston

 

Season ticket holders already giddy with glee over J.P. Ricciardi's new acquisitions were treated with more good news last night. In the opening statements at the Blue Jays' annual State of The Franchise, the 600 fans in attendance were told that both Shea Hillenbrand and Pete Walker, the last two arbitration-eligible players, had reached agreement and had signed one-year contracts.

 

Hillenbrand, who will be the Jays' designated hitter for the bulk of his playing time in 2006, will earn $5.8 million US while Walker, who will be in a battle for the seventh and final spot in the bullpen, will earn $650,000. The tone of the evening was decidedly upbeat and Ricciardi received plenty of kudos for upgrading the team by adding A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina.

 

Paul Godfrey, the Jays' president and CEO, was in full cheerleading mode, lacking only the pom-pons. "There is excitement in the streets of Toronto. There's panic in the streets of Boston," he exclaimed in his introductory remarks. Ricciardi was brief in his remarks and guarded in his optimism. "Hopefully, our club will play up to its capabilities," he ventured in his opening remarks. CHUCKLING

 

Later, when an individual asked how many games they would win, you could hear manager John Gibbons -- who was hooked up on a conference call -- chuckling all the way from San Antonio.

 

"I told Gibby that if he says a number, I'd fly to Texas and choke him," Ricciardi said referring to former manager Carlos Tosca's ill-fated response of "I don't see why we can't win 95 games," when asked that question a few years back. All Ricciardi would say was: "I think we'll be better than last year." But once the Q and A with the audience rolled on, Ricciardi warmed up and came up with the best line of the night when asked how he could justify signing Burnett to a five-year contact. "Because we didn't want to give him six," he replied to laughs all around. Besides the baseball queries, there were the usual gripes about not having hot water in the washrooms and the lousy food.

 

Godfrey also was pleased to announce that both revenue and ticket sales were ahead of last year's pace. The revenue increase was over 30%. New ticket sales were up 111% over the same time last year and their season-ticket renewal rate was 98%.

[ORS]

There's good reason for their optimism though. A rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Lilly, and Towers is nothing to sneeze at. They under performed their Pythagorean Record by 8 wins last year (80-82 actual, 88-74 by runs scored and runs allowed), and that generally happens with the BP is weak. Say what you want about Ryan, but he has struck out more than 12 per 9 the last two years and is a very effective reliever, so I doubt they will miss their expected wins by that much again. And, with the additions of Glaus, Overbay, and Molina they should score more often than last year. They'll be tough in 2006.

[riverside sluggers]

So there should be panic in the streets in Boston? Im not counting them out, its just that they shouldnt get too ahead of themselves. Keep in mind their rotation has health concerns with Halladay, Burnett & Lilly. Glaus is also known to be injury-prone very much so, along with being one of the worst defensive 3rd baseman in the league. Hudson to Hill is another big drop in defensive prowress. Im still going with Molina might deliver same type of offense as Zaun did in 05 since his stats at Rogers isnt even close to being mediocre.

[schillingouttheks]

Let them keep talking. If their players flop, they'll be in an insane state of shock and will feel like idiots. Who cares what they say anyway?

[jsinger121]

they also will have one of the worst defensive infields in the AL east. right now for they jays to make the playoffs they need everything to go right. I still think they are behind Boston and New York until they prove otherwise.

[ORS]

Im still going with Molina might deliver same type of offense as Zaun did in 05 since his stats at Rogers isnt even close to being mediocre.

You mean his stats compiled in 61 ABs over 7 years? You do this a lot. The sample of a player's performance in a park other than their home park is very flawed. First, it is generally too small to be reliable. Second, the ABs are taken at random, meaning there is no continuity to the sample. A couple of games in Toronto that coincide with a slight slump and any player who only plays there once a year will have horrid stats in that park. If it coincides with a hot streak, they'll look like a HOF'er. The only time a park split becomes reliable is once a player has played home games there and the stats can reflect their level of performance after they have experienced the normal hot streaks and slumps that occur throughout a season.

[26 to 6]

You mean his stats compiled in 61 ABs over 7 years? You do this a lot. The sample of a player's performance in a park other than their home park is very flawed. First, it is generally too small to be reliable. Second, the ABs are taken at random, meaning there is no continuity to the sample. A couple of games in Toronto that coincide with a slight slump and any player who only plays there once a year will have horrid stats in that park. If it coincides with a hot streak, they'll look like a HOF'er. The only time a park split becomes reliable is once a player has played home games there and the stats can reflect their level of performance after they have experienced the normal hot streaks and slumps that occur throughout a season.

Thank You

 

I also feel that the stats/park thing was ridiculous.

[riverside sluggers]

You mean his stats compiled in 61 ABs over 7 years? You do this a lot.

 

you can give your point of view, i respect that. Im giving off stats, I look at all aspects and share them with the board. I hardly see what you mean by "you do this a lot", if so send me a PM of any other instances then I can evaluate so.

 

Can it be said at all for Damon's stats at Yankee Stadium in 66 games? Sure his HR count will be up a tick but will we the .310+ average we've been accustomed to. Which has been helped greatly by him calling Fenway his home the past 4 seasons?

[ORS]

The most recent instances are Damon, Molina, and Youkilis (hitting in the #8 spot). Since none of those players had a continuous sample size in their respective split (Damon in NY, Molina in TOR, Youk in the #8 hole), then those splits aren't representative of their expected level of performance. I'm not trying to harp on you, but just shed a little light on one of the things you think is an indicator of future performance.

[He Hate Me]

you can give your point of view, i respect that. Im giving off stats, I look at all aspects and share them with the board. I hardly see what you mean by "you do this a lot", if so send me a PM of any other instances then I can evaluate so.

 

Can it be said at all for Damon's stats at Yankee Stadium in 66 games? Sure his HR count will be up a tick but will we the .310+ average we've been accustomed to. Which has been helped greatly by him calling Fenway his home the past 4 seasons?

 

FYI he went .310+ in only one season during his time with the Sox

[riverside sluggers]

The most recent instances are Damon, Molina, and Youkilis (hitting in the #8 spot). Since none of those players had a continuous sample size in their respective split (Damon in NY, Molina in TOR, Youk in the #8 hole), then those splits aren't representative of their expected level of performance. I'm not trying to harp on you, but just shed a little light on one of the things you think is an indicator of future performance.

 

A PM, but this post is alright with me. Its cool I just thought that the Parks stats was an important facor to consider. I had said in my post about Youk in the 8 hole, i had underlined thus far, as in up to this point this is what he has done there. Its also where he's had the most experience in.

 

FYI he went .310+ in only one season during his time with the Sox

 

Yes I realize that. Sorry Im just not expecting for him to have a batting avg above 300, no doubt Fenway gave him a nudge on that stat. Im not discouting however that he'll be capable this season of still a high OBP (.360+), 14-17 HRs, 75+ RBIs, 20 SBs, and easily 110+ Runs scored