Sabermetrics and The Dodgers

[GhostofMalzone]

Interesting reading about how some Dodger fans feel about "Moneyball"

From the site, Dodger Blue.com 11/5/05

 

 

Within a few days of Paul DePodesta's firing, two things became clear: (1) No one wants to

be the guy to replace him, and (2) a lot of people wanted to have sex with him.

 

Let's start with number one. The general manager job is open in one of baseball's most

storied franchises, and no one seems interested. Pat Gillick chose Philly. Gerry Hunsicker

chose Tampa Bay. Kevin Towers chose to stay in San Diego. And John Hart, who the Dodgers

are luring, is apparently thinking twice about the opportunity. You can't blame any of them.

What was once a dream job in baseball circles has become the summer job at Arby's that you fall back on when you can't find anything else. People once lined up for interviews with the Dodgers. Now people change their phone numbers so no one from the Dodgers can call them. Poor Kim Ng has nowhere to hide.

 

 

Now onto number two. It's already been well-established that the McCourts are insane and

fired DePodesta largely because they couldn't handle the media pressure. We're not going to

dwell on that. What we want to talk about is the fan reaction to the firing. More than

anything, the firing revealed the dichotomy that's emerged in baseball: that of traditionalists vs. statisticians. When DePodesta was fired, it wasn't just Dodger fans who were upset. In fact, those who were the most upset weren't even Dodger fans at all—they were fans of Sabermetrics. DePodesta was one of their heroes. The firing was a kick in the balls to each and every one of them. And they fought back. They bitched, they argued, and they wrote—and because they're generally intelligent people, they wrote a lot. And because they're so goddamn full of themselves, they wrote about how the average baseball fan just doesn't understand the genius of the Sabermetrics approach. What's amazing is that more and more people seem to be jumping on this Billy Beane bandwagon. What's depressing is that—at least in our opinion—they're jumping on it not because they truly believe in it, but because it's the "in" thing. The iPod nano... ringtones... Sabermetrics.

 

 

Truth be told, our problem is not with Sabermetrics itself—it's with the Sabermetricians who think it's the be all and end all. While there's definite legitimacy to OPS and WHIP, you simply can't build a successful, fan-friendly team with statistics alone. Unfortunately, these people are too smart for their own good. They discount the intangibles of sports, believing instead that the solution is purely in the numbers. Forgive our lack of sophistication, but that's ********. If it were purely in the numbers, Scott Posednik and Geoff Blum wouldn't have hit game-winning home runs that brought the White Sox a World Championship. If it were purely in the numbers, the 1988 Dodgers would not have beat the Mets, and sure as hell wouldn't have beat the mighty A's. Sorry, Sabers, but in sports it's more than the numbers. Not to columnist David Damiani, though, who wrote this in an article about the DePodesta firing:"Heart in modern sports writing is the last refuge of a scoundrel who doesn’t care to make an effort to understand his topic and has abject contempt for his subject and audience." Hey David, don't fall when you get off your high horse. Prick.

 

 

The big problem is that people seem to think you've got to be one or the other—you've either got to be a crusty traditionalist or a stat geek. There's no reason for it to be so black and white, though. How about a nice shade of travelling grey? It's called balance. Somewhere in between Paul DePodesta and Tommy Lasorda lies that balance. Let's hope the Dodgers' next GM can find it—if they ever find him. (Or her.)

 

 

Comments anyone?

[User Name]

This shouldn't really be in the Sox forum; it doesn't have anything to do with the Sox.

[guapo34]

I think your view of sabermetrics is terribly misguided. I am far from a stats geek. I don't understand half the stats those guys use. But you seem to have the impression Sabermetricians believe they can predict the future. If they could they'd be playing the lottery not writing about baseball. Maybe some of the writers you have read do believe they know everything, and its true that many are arogant. I am a big fan of Rob Neyer and he can be pretty arrogant, but he knows what hes talking about and I enjoy when he writes something against conventional wisdom that is pretty clearly true. As for your argument that if someone went purely by the numbers Scott Podsednick and Geoff Blum would not have hit game winning home runs, no one expected that. The White Sox didn't bring podsednick on board to hit home runs. They got lucky. He didn't hit a home run because of some clutch intangibles he holds. He hit a home run becuase he put a good swing on a bad pitch. The odds of this happening were extemely low. Same goes for Blum. The White Sox were a very good team this year. They also got pretty lucky, just like the Red Sox last year.

[Moose]

Knowing JD Drew had a great OBP in '04, DePodesta signed him. Sabermetricians just don't even care about injury risks, as long as they have the great stats. Moneyball just doesn't work for a market like Los Angeles. DePodesta tried it, but it didn't work. But then again, who knows? If he was given another chance, maybe the Dodgers would've been like the A's...in a big market.

 

Sure, the Dodgers won the division in '04, but DePo destroyed Dan Evans' team. The Dodgers had a record of 60-42 before trading LoDuca. After that trade, they were 33-27. He messed up the chemistry. But at the same time, it was a good thing trading an aging catcher for some young talent.

 

He dismantled a 1st place team and replaced it with a pretty good team (of course, it was a very strange mixture). The '05 team suffered from nagging injuries. But it doesn't mean DePo can make that as an excuse. He just totally fell in love with his idol's (Billy Beane) style. The only problem is, the Dodgers are in Los Angeles.

 

But he did a pretty damn good job of not re-signing players like Jose Lima, Steve Finley, and Adrian Beltre (although I believe he will have better numbers next year).

[guapo34]

you need to give a gm more than 2 years to implement a plan. Depodesta made some good moves for the dodgers and he made some bad ones. He was certainly going to bring on the young guys in that great farm system. If i were a dodger fan i'd be hoping for a new GM that isn't going to mortgage the future to win now.