Cameron Tran

loved the Moran deal, thought he could be a sneaky good bullpen piece. Fastball looking really good early, great run at 92-94. Slider looks solid. Needs to improve the cutter to really be effective, but a great first inning from him. Dont want to get my hopes up too early but seeing him look solid makes me happy.

not a fan of the apple TV broadcasts to be completely honest

With Mayer up now, Roman Anthony is the last of the "big 3" to debut for Boston. With the way the outfield is playing, there isn't really a spot for Anthony to play. The best option at this point might be the move Rafaela back into the infield. While he struggled last year ( -7 OAA at SS), he could slide into second if Campbell shows he is able to play first base. Rafaela played 10 games at second last year, putting up 45 innings of league average defense at the position. While his glove is great in center, Duran has proven he can play center, with 6 OAA at the position last year. If he could slide over, Anthony could play in left, a position he has played just 4 games in this year. Alternatively, he could play center, where he starts tonight in Worcester. This is what the lineup could look like: C: Narvaez 1B: Campbell 2B: Rafaela 3B: Mayer SS: Story LF: Duran/Anthony CF: Duran/Anthony RF: Abreu What do you think? Is it worth it to make Rafaela once again juggle 2 positions, something he struggled with last year?

After a rough outing against the Mets in which Hendriks left the 7th with the bases loaded and no outs, many were quick to point to Hendriks pregame comments regarding his usages. The 15-year vet had previously voiced his frustrations about how Cora and the pitching staff had used him out of the bullpen. Once a top-end closer, it seems as if Hendriks has been relegated to a back of the bullpen role. He expressed his desire to pitch in more high-leverage situations, claiming he should be "pitching like [he] will rust before he wears out" But, at the end of the day, Hendriks has failed to instill confidence in Cora and Red Sox fans alike, and his outing Wednesday did nothing but prove that point. Hendriks has pitched in 11 games this season after spending all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John. In those 11 games, he has a 5.56 ERA and an unconvincing 4.14 FIP. Hendriks is also sporting a 4.76 BB/9, his highest of his career by about a walk per nine. While the sample size is small, Hendriks has so far looked like a shell of his former self. His struggles are pretty easily explainable by a simple bout of poor command. Walks are up, strikeouts are done, and Hendriks has been unable to regain his elite command from his time in Chicago. This season, Hendriks has a first strike% of 58.3%, down from his career average of 63.3%. Hendriks has seen himself behind in the count for 26 of the 48 total batters he has faced, with hitters hitting .350 of him in those situations. To contrast, a first pitch strike drops that average down to .158, and while a BB% of 9 is still concerning, it is clear Hendriks should game-plan to throw more first pitch strikes. Another area of concern comes from Hendriks stuff in particular. His stuff+ of 95 is well below his career average of 116, and his fastball/slider combo are both down around 20 points of stuff+ from his career average. His fastball has lost about 2mph from his prime, with his slider losing just under 3. While he has upped his slider use by around 10%, the pitched is generating 12% more linedrives and 11% less groundballs than average. This coincides with a general trend in batted ball data, as Hendriks is allowing more linedrives and less grounballs than wanted. His slider has never had a great movement profile, and with the velocity going down and usage going up its not hard to see why that pitch isn't doing as well. Or is it. Contrary to what you may think, Hendriks slider has been an effective pitch. The league has a .250/.308/.250 slash line against it, good for an OPS of just .558. The pitch has been a plus for Hendriks, getting a swinging strike rate of 26.7%, not too far off from his prime numbers in Chicago. His fastball, on the other hand, has been his problem pitch. Hitters are whiffing on just 3.8% of the fastballs he has thrown, well down from his career average. The 92% contact rate, while exaggerated by a small sample size, is also alarming, as hitters have a .772 OPS against the heater. The solution to this might be for Bailey and the pitching staff to introduce another fastball into Hendriks arsenal. That could mean the return of his sinker, a pitch he hasn't thrown since 2019. While it was never effective when he threw it, we've seen Bailey give sinkers to Bello and Houck that have been successful, Another option could be a cutter, which could be make him more effective against lefties as well. All in all, Hendriks slow start has likely been a product of rust and bad luck, as he is rocking a .310 BABIP. While it's unlikely we will see Hendriks return to his All-Star form in a Red Sox jersey, some small adjustments, and maybe giving in and letting Hendriks pitch more, could help him regain his command and return to a medium-high leverage role. For now, he has done nothing to justify a spot as a premier reliever in what is shaping up to be a pretty solid bullpen.

Giolito up to 96 with his fastball at times. Sitting 92-94 but good to see he can get it up there when he needs to. That one to Springer at 95 on pitch 78.

Red Sox with the highest Exit Velo and most barrels and hard hit balls of any team so far

The bats are heating up!!

I think he'd be such a great coach especially at some of the lower levels with the young kids. Seems like lots of the younger players really gravitate towards him.

he hit .225 in the first half of 2023. Finished that season hitting .317 with 15 home runs in the second half

we need Dom Smith back

Casas is too good of a hitter with too good plate discipline to keep hitting like this. Don't know if it's an approach thing or a mindset thing or just a bad month. He had a really tough year last year but those 2 homers this past week should hopefully get him going. He's a competitor we saw it in the documentary I'm pretty confident he'll figure this out.

dude is a dog, also seems like such a nice guy and a great veteran presence

Much has been said about Rob Refsnyder and his ability to kill left handed pitching, but just how good has he been? After going 2/4 with a homerun against Cleveland lefty Logan Allen on Sunday, I did some digging. Since joining the Red Sox in 2022, Refsnyder has 382 PAs against lefties. In those 3+ seasons, he has a slash line of .318/.408/.508 with 13 home runs. His .916 OPS is 14th in that time frame for players with minimum 350 PAs against lefties, and his 154 wRC+ puts him in the top 10. His 27% LD rate is 4th since 2022, The 9 players ahead of him in terms of wRC+ have all gotten an All Star nod in the time since Refsnyder has joined. One of the most under appreciated Red Sox bats of the past couple of years, truly one of the most valuable players on the team.

I agree. There should be enough space for Rafaela to still get a solid amount of PAs while platooning against LHP and filling in at SS and 2B when needed. Love the glove as a late-inning defensive replacement. My question for you is do you trust WIlyer as an everyday player? Or should it be Duran, Rafaela and Anthony against LHPs? Don't love the idea of Anthony bouncing between LF and RF his rookie season, but he's been doing it all throughout the minors

Bloom definetly jumped the gun with Bello. Hope he can develop into a high-end #3 but definitely not worth the 16-22M we'll be paying him

The biggest thing I've seen with Duran are on some of the flyballs down the left field line into the shade when its sunny (think that drop against Baltimore in the home opener last year). don't know if sticking Anthony out there will really fix much and not sure how Duran's arm will play in center.

im confident he'll get atleast a little bit better with experience. Most of his batted ball data (minus all the groundballs) is strong. Plate discipline is something that comes with time and he can't be this bad forever. Still don't think his ceiling is anything higher than like fringe all-star, maybe like benintendi level. If he can become our new Brock Holt for the rest of the contract id consider that a win.

After a solid rookie season in which he finished top 10 among rookies in hits, doubles, RBI and HR, Ceddanne Rafaela has been off to a horrid start at the plate in 2025. Following a strong spring in which he showed much improved plate discipline, Ceddanne is off to a .211/.274/.246 start and has yet to hit a home run. Despite being in the 96th percentile for baserunning runs and the 98th in fielding runs, fans are calling for a change with top prospect Roman Anthony off to a great start in AAA. So what's gone wrong with the player Breslow and Co. trusted enough to hand out an 8 year contract too? The biggest issue with Ceddanne so far is his batted ball data, where his GB% is 10% above league average, resulting in over half his batted balls being groundballs. This coincides with Ceddanne's inability to lower his chase rate. Despite a respectable walk rate, Ceddanne still sits in the 1st percentile in terms of chase rate and his outside zone swing% is 20% above league average, swinging at over half of the pitches he sees outside the zone. 20% of the pitches he sees are low and out, and Ceddanne has chased that low outside pitch 42% of the time. Those 21 swings have resulted in 1 hard hit ball, 8 batted balls, an average exit velo of 77, an average launch angle of 8, and a 63% GB rate. Even then, Ceddanne has gotten lucky. Of those 8 batted balls, 4 have them have resulted in hits despite a .230 xBA on those batted balls. Ceddanne had the same problem last year, seeing a pitch in that area 24% of the time, chasing it 46% of the time, and whiffing 49% of the time. Once again, the chase rate is what is holding Ceddanne back. He has dropped his K% to below league average and his walk rate has gone up 4%, usually a good sign for a young hitter. His hard hit% is up, his barrel% is around the same, but all that is mitigated by his inability to lay off the junk. The biggest worry is that most of these swings are coming early in the count. In 2 strike counts, he is hitting .257/.316/.314. Not great, but not horrible either. To contrast, he's hitting .182/.357/.182 when ahead in the count. It's not hard to see a silver lining to this horrid start at the plate, as Ceddanne once again looks like a platinum glove caliber defender at a premium position. But with Roman Anthony having his second 2 HR game of the season a few nights ago, it's hard to justify keeping his bat in the lineup. Ceddanne would be an expensive utility guy, but it appears that that might be his ceiling.

Cora loved him in AAA as a mentor type if Fulmer accepts that they'd rather him in AAA I assume

I'd trust Kutter over Giolito and Sandoval. I think Cora probably will too. Dude is a workhorse 33 starts on a bum knee and solid numbers. Hopefully he can get healthy soon and cause don't forget he was unhittable in his first few starts last year (prior to the knee injury)

In 30 starts last year, Tanner Houck ended with a 3.12 ERA and the second most WAR on the team at 3.9. In a widely under-appreciated season, Houck pitched like an ace for us. This year, Houck was slated as the number 2 starter, behind offseason addition Garret Crochet. Coming off of a rough spring, Houck's struggles continued into the regular season, allowing 4 runs against Texas and 3 runs against Baltimore, while really struggling to keep the ball in the park. So what is up with Houck, and how should we view his strong start Wednesday against Toronto? Through 3 starts, Houck's sweeper has lost about 2 inches of horizontal break. Even with that loss, the sweeper has still been his most used, and best, pitch. Hitters are so far hitting .208 off it, with a 36% whiff, 6% higher than last year. Houck's struggles so far lie in his secondaries. While his splitter, his best secondary last year, has maintained its vertical drop, it has lost half an inch of arm side run, leaving it league average in that aspect. Quite simply though, it's just being squared up more. The line drive percentage off the splitter has increased by 10%, while the contact % has gone up 7%. This has resulted in a .385 BA against the splitter. The sinker has been arguably worse for Houck. The slugging % against it has gone from .327 to .600 with a hard hit rate of 60%. Houck has transition pretty much to a 3 pitch arsenal, and when 2/3 pitches are being hit above .300, something isn't right. Despite that, Houck turned in a strong start in Wednesday night's loss against Toronto, going 6.2 allowing 1 run on 5 hits. The big thing that changed was looking at Houck's sinker. While Houck wasn't able to land the backdoor sweeper as consistently as he wanted to, he got 13 swings on arm side sinkers (inside to RHH outside to LHH). Once again though, Houck didn't generate nearly as many whiffs as he was last year, with just 2 on the sweeper and 2 on the sinker. It was the quality of contact that kept the Blue Jays at bay. The sinker had an exit velo of 83, down from 98 and 89, while the sweeper generated a great exit velo of 78, down from 92 and 95. While the profile of both pitches remained the same, Houck was locating much better Wednesday, a good sign that some early season rust is wearing off. Disappointingly though, the splitter was still downright awful. Houck threw it 20% of the time, in line with his first 2 starts, but once again the pitch was hammered, with an avg exit velo of 99. Once again, it was location that killed Houck. The splitter had a movement profile very similar to the splitter he was throwing in his Maddux against Cleveland last year, but the location was way off. With that splitter, he wants to get that ball down and in against righties, playing off the heavy sweeper and tighter sinker. But Houck didn't land one splitter in that area last night, with 10 of his 20 splitters being left right over the plate. Comparing that to that Maddux, Houck threw 9 of 32 splitters in the zone. When he misses with the splitter, it comes in like a BP fastball in the high 80s. That's going to get crushed 10/10 times.

anything about where Bello is at?

Hey guys! I know I'm fairly new here but I came on here because I really wanted to follow my dream of working in Baseball (for the Sox of course) and I just wanted to share I got a summer internship with the Brewster Whitecaps in the Cape Cod league!!

After a slow spring, MLB's #6 prospect has come out of the gates swinging to begin his rookie season. Through 7 games, Campbell is hitting .417 with 2 home runs, 6 walks and 6 strikeouts. On Wednesday, Campbell signed an 8 year, $60 million deal with options for a 9th and 10th year. That deal looks like a steal. Among qualified hitters, Campbell has the second highest OPS in the league, behind teammate Wilyer Abreu. So how has Campbell been able to start this hot, and will it continue? Campbell's swing, which is about half an inch shorter than league average, combined with his strength, which gives him a fast swing rate (swing's faster than 75 mph) 17% higher than league average, has made it hard for opposing pitchers to find a weakness for them to exploit. In the first two games of the season, Texas attacked him with mainly fastballs and sliders, throwing the heater upwards of 30% each game and the slider 42% in game 2. Campbell hit both the slider and the fastball, with singles over 100 mph on both. He barreled up a 96 mph fastball from Jack Lieter for a single, before crushing a low 90s fastball for his first home run. In the series against Baltimore, he was challenged with hitting major league breaking balls, which he did, going 4-10 with 2 doubles, another homerun, and 2 walks. He added 3 more hits about 100 mph, including a 108mph double off Zach Eflin. That short swing has allowed him to catch up to pretty much anything, while his sneaky strength has given him some loud contact. Bat speed isn't the only thing Campbell has going for him. His 6 walks are 4th in the American League, and he pairs that with an early K% around the 60th percentile, showing advanced plate discipline for someone with only 1 full season of pro ball under their belt. Apart from a few ugly swings in his first few at-bats, Campbell has done a really good job of controlling the strike-zone, working deep into counts and getting a pitch he can hit. His 77% contact rate is comparable to where Devers was in his best seasons, except he swings the bat about 10% less and has an outside the zone swing rate 7% less. Campbell's batted ball data suggest that this has little to do with luck. Campbell sports an expected batting average of .295, with an xwoba of .395, both above the 70 percentile. Additionally, just 1 of Campbell's 10 base hits has been hit over 94 mph. Even if you put that number up to 100mph, Campbell would only lose 2 other base hits. He's hit pretty much everything that they've thrown at him. While this type of production almost certainly won't last, it's excited to see such a highly touted prospect suceed early. And if he can play at anything near this level, that 8 year deal will be a steal.

throw criswell out there let him eat some innings