oldtimer

We are 6 games behind in the loss column to 2 teams. We finish the road trip today and then go 7 games against two division leaders. We have a depleted starting pitching corp and an overused BP. It's virtually the same picture we had in mid August. Believers believe but realists state the obvious. We won it all last year and depleted our farm to strengthen that team. We also spent the most in baseball to the extent it put us in the competitive balance tax squeeze. Contracts that we signed with Sale, Price, Eovaldi and Pedroia will hang over this team for a while and it looks like none of those will return equal value in performance. Probably best to go for a reset in 2020. Also it still looks like DD does not have the right style to rebuild this team as he has a history of spending big and using up farm resources. Whoever comes has a strong offensive team but clearly has to rid the team of deadwood and then look to what is required to return the team to competitiveness. Any new management will be faced with difficult decisions and will probably realize it might take several years to be competitive at the highest level, given the state of the Astros and Yankees. Moon has suggested that we cut ties with those who wouldn't be a help to us in 2021 and later. It makes some sense although I would like us to keep enough pieces to keep the team at least competitive enough to keep people in the seats. Clearly we have a big problem with contracts that will have over us through 2021 and later. It seems doubtful that we can trade away those contracts so we just have to let them play out. So it looks like the game plan we will need to follow is adding some lower cost younger players to partially offset the large underperforming contracts that are on the books. I have advocated getting a look at several of our best prospects with a hope a couple will pan out enough to play next year. They are Chatham, Dalbec, Duran, Houck and Mata. DHern we already expect to move forward next season. Replacement of Porcello, Moreland, Pearce and Leon can save us some $$ provided we find low cost alternatives. We can't control the JDM situation. If he stays for the current $ then he fills the DH role. If he opts out and we fill the DH position with a lower cost option, maybe we can find a quality starting pitcher. I wouldn't trade E-Rod as he fills a great need for the Sox. Mookie is perhaps the most difficult decision. Do we try hard ($$ contract) to keep him or do we trade one of our best young players and hope to resign him later. I want to keep him provided he will take a contract for 8 years at his true value which I believe is well under $30 mil per year. JH is willing to spend but no fool. He can no doubt see where DD has taken him. Hope he is a man of action.

I feel sorry for the Sox pitching staff, down on starters and having to go 15 last night. I know, they caused some of their own problems, but they need Price back tomorrow, and he needs to pitch at least 7 innings. Hope he can do that.

It's also a testimony to how low opinions of Johnson and Cashner have fallen. If Chacin is a solid possibility it is probably more to do with next year.

Maybe interested in saving his job.

For those who bemoan the fact that the Sox won't spend still more money to make the playoffs, I looked at the Oakland Competitive Balance Tax Payroll. It comes to just over $85 mil. They seem to be getting more bang for the buck and I didn't bother to do the same for the Rays, but no doubt they are miles below our spending.

We go into the meat grinder after the Angels.

Maybe they could lower the ticket prices, and concession costs. It's hard for a family to afford going to just one game these days. Maybe they will wind up killing the sport just as horse racing is struggling now.

My older brother is in Venice and awaiting the storm. I also have a Villa there but spend my summers in the mountains of NC. Hoping that the east coast is not facing catastrophic conditions, but it doesn't look good.

Hard for me to feel sorry for a guy making $1 ml per start.

It's difficult in MLB to guess at performance a full year ahead. I would defer definitive statements until he actually has another great year. Injuries, ageing and the like are part of the game

I do feel the reset will occur in 2020. The Sox will need to offset our bloated budget that will still likely result from having underperformers on salary, with low cost younger players, I would think Mata, Houck, Duran and Chatham are possible replacement players, where we may need them the most (CF, SP and IF). Not all these guys will make the grade next year, but giving them a chance to gain experience and help us starting with Spring Training makes a lot of sense. We do have Travis, Chavis, Lin, MHern and Holt who will compete with some of them, but other than DHern we have no other young SP talent and we need to replace Porcello and one would have to be very optimistic to think all three of Price, Sale and Eovaldi would be contributors going forward.

Yes, but DD got us out f the fring pan but right back into the fire. Pedey, Eovaldi, Sale, Price. We have to cross our fingers that a couple of our starters will come back and at least be viable 2nd or 3rd starters if no longer ace material. I don't see trade possibilities for any of the above. Even with us eating part of the contracts it is unlikely.

It looks good for a win tonight but then the Angels will be competitive and then Minnesota and the Yankees will be a stuggle with Price just returning and Eovaldi not back to par. The offense is decent but hard to overcome the lack of pitching when trying to make up 7 in the loss column.

He has been fortunate to get great run support this year. Others on the staff haven't been that lucky.

John Henry did go all in this year and the payroll is approaching the 3rd tier of the competitive balance tax. I for one think he did the right thing by keeping DD from spending still more this year. Resetting next year looks like the right thing to do as does finding a new GM and President of baseball operations. We need a new business plan and someone with the right talent to pull it off. It may hurt for a year or two but it is necessary to become fully competitive again. I give zero blame to the Henry ownership

It smells of Dog Doo all over it.

I think they keep Chavis, at least until Spring training of 2020. His known deficiency is hitting the high fastball. It is possible he can learn to hit that better since he is inexperienced enough so there is room to grow. He has a big and long swing and may need to modify it some. If they determine he still can't hit it then, they can try the trade route. Imagine the criticism if the kid works out and hits 35 HRs and has an OPS of 900 for another club. Dalbec is also worth a hard look as is Chatham, who could handle SS should Bogie sustain an injury during the season. With Travis, Marco and Lin we know what we have. Still think Ockimey is a lesser version of Dalbec and not ready for the big time.

Do we still owe Sandoval a $5 mil buyout next year. If so, does it count against our salary cap?

The Sox business plan going forward has to consider the likely competition they will face in Houston, Yankees, TB and Cleveland. If it looks unlikely we can compete in 2020 (it does), then it should be identified as the reset season and changes made should reflect that. A lot revolves around how well Sale, Price and Eovaldi can rebound from 2019. I view it as unlikely that all 3 can have fully competitive years in 2020 and there is a possibility all three could again have sub par years.

Again, if we want to reset in 2020 (depends on the Sox business plan), we will need to look for lower cost players from the farm. My view is Dalbec has the best chance with Duran nearly ready and we may well need a full time outfield replacement and Chatham who is capable of playing short and second and is a line drive type hitter. Others in the farm aren't ready at this point in my estimation. The reset, if it comes, may require JBJ to be traded, and the utility infield positions are not that strong so that C havis, Travis, Marco and Lin may find themselve competing with Dalbec and Chatham. I like Holt enough to keep him and hope that he can stand the wear and tear of a full season.

To reset in 2020 while remaining somewhat competitive we may well need to find low cost pitching since Price, Sale and Eovaldi will probably be with us but are a question maark going forward. Our three farm pitchers who might help are DHern, Houch and Mata. All three should get a look in spring training in the starter role. One or more of them might be better than Johnson for instance. I am not enamored of Barnes or Hembree. They do throw hard, but both had very inconsistent years. We may need to look elsewhere for BP help.

A group of boys named the Sox Were thought to be playoff locks But to all their chagrin Starting pitchers didn't win So the season became a small pox

We have 7 games coming up with the Yankees and Minnesota. No walk in the park and we haven't played well at home.

It isn't a prediction of how we will do in any one year. It is the setting of goals to direct our thinking going forward. If it is clear the best way to make 2020 competitive is to compromise 2021 forward, then it becomes a tradeoff. We need a front office who can make those tradeoffs so that improving the farm, keeping people in the seats and having a progressively stronger team without totally dismissing 2020 are weighed. I personally would set a pay scale guidelines covering all the positions on the team and try to stick to those guidelines in agreeing to contracts. Right now the contracts tend to be out of balance and we may need to wait some of those out to return to full competitiveness.

Once you believe the shiip has sailed, you no longer get worked up about a loss like this. The mathematics will catch up with us eventually, even though TB is struggling now and the A's aren't a powerful team. We still have to lose 7 less than them and Cleveland to qualify. Not likely so chill out.