oldtimer

Sounded tempting. We don't know the constraints and options DD is considering, but that did sound reasonable. Maybe Kimbrel is still in play?

Lets not give up our better minor league players. Casas has an upside at a position that may well be vacant in two years. Just right. Mata may also have a lot going for him.

If we didn't have Hanley, Pablo and Pedey we would have had $54 million of wiggle room and none of those contributed to our success.

To do list for January 2019? This based upon staying below the second tier of the luxury tax penalty tier. 1. Look for and add a closer and perhaps another reliever. Make staff adjustments accordingly. 2. Evaluate Pedey and his physical progress. Develop a plan based on the findings 3. Trade a catcher, possibly for prospects or a reliever. 4. Initiate negotiation of contracts for Bogey, Betts and Sale if that is not already in progress.

My wife taught math in college and specialized in statistics. That was years ago and now we are comfortably retired. She gets pretty certain on her definitions. She would argue that Notin's usage is the more correct one. "Typically “addition by subtraction” refers to getting better by letting a player go. Hence the “subtraction” part..."

It's easy to spend money, especially other peoples, but difficult to spend money wisely. Our prospects values could be monetized along with the payroll and other expenses. DD has spent freely in both cash and prospects to achieve the WS win we all hoped for. Getting close to the time to pay the piper. We probably will get Robertson or Ottavino and likely nothing more for 2019. It may be enough, we shall see.

Not adding is standing still. When you stand still, you are much more likely to be caught. I prefer change with the expectation of improvement. Of course a perceived improvement can go bad but a track record where a high percentage of changes lead to improvements is something to strive for. I have no reason to believe that DD will make poor decisions on the team's behalf. Clearly he has been given guidelines and limits so he or anyone else needs to consider how to get the optimum bang for the buck; Like you, I don't believe in long term contracts for older players. Something like a sliding scale of years for age. At 30 a 5 year max for a top player sliding to 2 or even 1 for a 35 year old. Hope DD considers that as his approach. My concern with DD is his depletion of the prospect pool in order to win the WS. It was a tradeoff and it worked, but on a longer term basis it may result in a significant downside. He did initiate the Price contract which I was against on principle. He also was involved in Pedey's contract, which was sentimental, not logical. So DD is not perfect eitther. We are days from 2019. Looking forward to a move or moves being announced.

My comment was a tease but you took it seriously.

Thirty is not really a ripe old age as he would not be considered long in the tooth or over the hill as yet.

Are you thinking of trading Moreland for a low cost prospect that might be available in 2020 and beyond and then applying the money saved to a closer? Whether Moreland or Nunez, those are the only two who would return enough salary cap money to make it worthwhile, although both were an integral part of the team during the WS run. It's certain a tradeoff possibility. If we get a solid prospect for 2nd base out of it, I can see added advantages.

I assume you meant Lin

We are in to trade off studies. All have consequences. Assuming we make a trade and get prospects, that would give us another $6 million to spend on a FA closer and probably still have a small cushion for contingency situations. I see us picking up a closer and filling other BP needs from within.

Yes, we all know that we have some expensive talent. Price's contract looked bad at the time, not because he lacked talent, but 7 years at $31 Mil AAV for an experienced pitcher carries a high risk and puts limits on whaat the team can do. Then Panda's current overhanging $18 million is a major imposition to the club. Add to that the high risk of Pedey's contract for $13 mil and we have done it to ourselves. DD probably will keep the total beyond the second tier luxury tax limit by signing lower cost talent for less years and possibly by trading away a piece or two with a total contract value of around $7 million to give us a little more flexibility.

Who do we trade? Won't we have to free up some cap space to make a trade work? I would think Swihart, possibly Moreland would allow us some roon to take on a $10 mil contract. But then, are we sure we won't need help at 2nd base? Pedey is still and unknow and the first information is likely to come in at the beginning of January. DD needs to be careful with his moved, assuming they don't want to go over the second tier of the luxury tax threshhold.

Ultimately I think DD will look for a closer in the FA market that will keep us under the upper limit on the luxury tax. I think he will try to go with our minor league prospects to bolster the BP.

DD did signal that it is unlikely that the club will carry 3 catchers on the 25 man roster in 2019. What he didn't make clear is which of the 3 will not be there next season. After that is resolved, comments about our catching situation will be more meaningful.

I think DD is watching the Kiimbrel market closely and is not going to act until he Kimbrel decides what he will do. I would be reluctant to sign Kimbrel to more than 2years and like you, my upper limit would be 3 years. The contract might be too rich and club limiting so I expect DD to head in another direction with the FA closer for 2 years and fill in the BP from our minors, at least until we see how that would work. We still have an unknown in Pedroia. That situation should be clarified when Pedroia starts to run in January. We need too leave some flexibility in the payroll structure to allow us to deal with that uncertainty.

DD is probably in agreement with that line of thinking, but I do think he will go to the FA market for a closer and fill in on the rp from our minor leagues. There will be time to make adjustments if that fails.

From what I hear you are correct, hence Castillo is a victim of the system if you call getting paid millions to play in the minors being a victim.

I imagine a business the size of the Red Sox has developed an economic model which accounts for how much you can afford to pay for players on the 25 man roster and how much you can pay for those filling out the 40 man roster. I would imagine the amounts are developed into some sort of pyramid, with the best making the most and on down. Clearly starting pitchers and star players are those who will get the most. Like other businesses, they live in a competitive world which establishes the expected value of the players in ML ball. One could argue the Sox made concious decisions to incur penalties of both Luxury tax and depletion of our minors program in order to win a world series. Making bad decisions like Hanley, Panda and others certainly hampered what the Sox can do within the confines of any model they have developed. I also believe that the Pedey deal was a mistake and perhaps also the Price deal, although it paid off this year. There are going to be some decisions that will be shown not to work since each of them carries a risk. It's up to management to make the fewest mistakes in having the risk implode on them. Think of Thornburg and Smith. It happens. How does this thinking apply to Mookie? Clearly if you pay him $35 million a year, we will have to pay others less and perhaps lose some of our best other assets. The second part of this is what if you give Mookie a long term guaranteed contract of 8 to 10 years. A lot can happen in that length of time and perhaps an injury, illness or loss of ability leave the team limiting it's options and also not having a star player. DD and the front office is not stupid and knows all of this. They will do a risk/reward evaluation and make a decision that should be in the best interest of the club and I am fine with that. The only thing which gives me pause is the contract given to Pedey based on what appears to be sentimentality and the contract to Price which seems to have been a high risk. I don't pin other contracts like Panda's on the current management.

Kimmi I totally agree with your point of view. Stability might well overwiegh any slight gain one would get by considering staight statistics. I also trust Cora's judgment.

I noticed the banner on TV today indicated the Sox were definitely over the $40 million and will be penalized by moving our pick down 10 spots. Can't see going over again in 2019.

I would say it is extremely difficult to project out to 2022. I can see 2019 as being nearly solidified but beyond that, pitching will depend on many things, like is Sale really sound. We probably will have BP help from the minors. Beyond that, naming names is an exercise in futility. As far as field players, I can see a lineup including: 1. Beni LF 2. Betts RF 3. Devers 3rd 4. Casas 1st 5. Dalbec DH 6. Chavis 2nd 7. Chatham SS 8. Vaz C 9. CF?? (Probable FA acquisition) It's far enough in the future to be pure speculation as we have three seasons to see if any of the pieces actually fit. Utility Lin