oldtimer

I assume you meant Lin

We are in to trade off studies. All have consequences. Assuming we make a trade and get prospects, that would give us another $6 million to spend on a FA closer and probably still have a small cushion for contingency situations. I see us picking up a closer and filling other BP needs from within.

Yes, we all know that we have some expensive talent. Price's contract looked bad at the time, not because he lacked talent, but 7 years at $31 Mil AAV for an experienced pitcher carries a high risk and puts limits on whaat the team can do. Then Panda's current overhanging $18 million is a major imposition to the club. Add to that the high risk of Pedey's contract for $13 mil and we have done it to ourselves. DD probably will keep the total beyond the second tier luxury tax limit by signing lower cost talent for less years and possibly by trading away a piece or two with a total contract value of around $7 million to give us a little more flexibility.

Who do we trade? Won't we have to free up some cap space to make a trade work? I would think Swihart, possibly Moreland would allow us some roon to take on a $10 mil contract. But then, are we sure we won't need help at 2nd base? Pedey is still and unknow and the first information is likely to come in at the beginning of January. DD needs to be careful with his moved, assuming they don't want to go over the second tier of the luxury tax threshhold.

Ultimately I think DD will look for a closer in the FA market that will keep us under the upper limit on the luxury tax. I think he will try to go with our minor league prospects to bolster the BP.

DD did signal that it is unlikely that the club will carry 3 catchers on the 25 man roster in 2019. What he didn't make clear is which of the 3 will not be there next season. After that is resolved, comments about our catching situation will be more meaningful.

I think DD is watching the Kiimbrel market closely and is not going to act until he Kimbrel decides what he will do. I would be reluctant to sign Kimbrel to more than 2years and like you, my upper limit would be 3 years. The contract might be too rich and club limiting so I expect DD to head in another direction with the FA closer for 2 years and fill in the BP from our minors, at least until we see how that would work. We still have an unknown in Pedroia. That situation should be clarified when Pedroia starts to run in January. We need too leave some flexibility in the payroll structure to allow us to deal with that uncertainty.

DD is probably in agreement with that line of thinking, but I do think he will go to the FA market for a closer and fill in on the rp from our minor leagues. There will be time to make adjustments if that fails.

From what I hear you are correct, hence Castillo is a victim of the system if you call getting paid millions to play in the minors being a victim.

I imagine a business the size of the Red Sox has developed an economic model which accounts for how much you can afford to pay for players on the 25 man roster and how much you can pay for those filling out the 40 man roster. I would imagine the amounts are developed into some sort of pyramid, with the best making the most and on down. Clearly starting pitchers and star players are those who will get the most. Like other businesses, they live in a competitive world which establishes the expected value of the players in ML ball. One could argue the Sox made concious decisions to incur penalties of both Luxury tax and depletion of our minors program in order to win a world series. Making bad decisions like Hanley, Panda and others certainly hampered what the Sox can do within the confines of any model they have developed. I also believe that the Pedey deal was a mistake and perhaps also the Price deal, although it paid off this year. There are going to be some decisions that will be shown not to work since each of them carries a risk. It's up to management to make the fewest mistakes in having the risk implode on them. Think of Thornburg and Smith. It happens. How does this thinking apply to Mookie? Clearly if you pay him $35 million a year, we will have to pay others less and perhaps lose some of our best other assets. The second part of this is what if you give Mookie a long term guaranteed contract of 8 to 10 years. A lot can happen in that length of time and perhaps an injury, illness or loss of ability leave the team limiting it's options and also not having a star player. DD and the front office is not stupid and knows all of this. They will do a risk/reward evaluation and make a decision that should be in the best interest of the club and I am fine with that. The only thing which gives me pause is the contract given to Pedey based on what appears to be sentimentality and the contract to Price which seems to have been a high risk. I don't pin other contracts like Panda's on the current management.

Kimmi I totally agree with your point of view. Stability might well overwiegh any slight gain one would get by considering staight statistics. I also trust Cora's judgment.

I noticed the banner on TV today indicated the Sox were definitely over the $40 million and will be penalized by moving our pick down 10 spots. Can't see going over again in 2019.

I would say it is extremely difficult to project out to 2022. I can see 2019 as being nearly solidified but beyond that, pitching will depend on many things, like is Sale really sound. We probably will have BP help from the minors. Beyond that, naming names is an exercise in futility. As far as field players, I can see a lineup including: 1. Beni LF 2. Betts RF 3. Devers 3rd 4. Casas 1st 5. Dalbec DH 6. Chavis 2nd 7. Chatham SS 8. Vaz C 9. CF?? (Probable FA acquisition) It's far enough in the future to be pure speculation as we have three seasons to see if any of the pieces actually fit. Utility Lin

I'm reading between the lines from what DD has been quot6ed as saying. I really think it is an open question but that Vaz is safely in.

Imagine what Kimbrel will get. The contracts for good but not great relief pitchers is getting absurd.

Unlike others, I don't think the matter is settled in DD's mind. I do think Vaz will be our #1 catcher for the reasons you mentioned. I don't think the choice of Leon or Swihart has been made at this point. While Swihart has marginally better trade value than Leon, he is younger and possibly could have upside as a hitter. Leon could be the odd man out as easily as Swihart.

The catcher situation will also be clarified soon.

The idea of a cliff when we lose some of our assets is a reasonable concern but we do have first base candidates in the minors so losing Moreland won't be felt that much. If we were to lose Bogie, that would hurt as CJ Chatam is all we have in the minors. He could be a quality defensive player and a decent hitter, but without a lot of power. The presumption is we lose players because we don't want to pay what the FA market will offer them, making a minor league substitute more likely. JBJ is another who we may have to replace and our best minor league defensive fielder (Cole Brennan) has yet to show he can hit enough to be in the mix. Starting pitching is where we will likely be hurting. Sale and Porcello will possibly be gone and Price getting toward the end of his effectiveness. Lots of concern, but DD has shown himself to be up to the task of filling holes with quality players.

I don't see that anywhere else. Where did you get this information. As of this morning, DD was still talking about the possibility of bringing him back but at more than $8 per year for a relief pitcher, it would seem unlikely.

Lots of talk at the winter meetings from both Cora and DD. One of my pet peeves last season was Devers weight at 239#. The talk from the sox is that they will get him a nutrionalist and trainer to do something to put him in better shape before he becomes a second coming of Panda. Love to see him at 219. Quicker and more durable. Still the talk of waiting until January to see if Pedey has t4ruly made progress. If not then what? Talk of being open to trading Porcello, JBJ, Bogie, Moreland and/or others but not driven by it. To save on payroll, it might make sense, but only if the team could be improved. I doubt they will do any of that. Then the talak about Beni hitting first and Betts second. In a 162 game season, presumably Betts would have been up with nobody on 162 times. Simple logic, but the point is you want your best hitter up with me on base. That discussion was held on the board ad nasweum last season. Who knows what additional gems will come out as the meetings conclude?

I noticed an item on the MBB banner on sports center that indicates Beni is going to bat first next season with Betts hitting second. Did anyone hear the original source?

dd Was quoted about our catchers. "Ideally, we would rather-- and not against any of the three, because we like them all-- it's hard to carry all three on the big-league club," Dombrowski said. "None of them have options left. But we're also not gonna just give them away to give them away. We'll see where that takes us."

I would find Robertson for 2 years a good deal but would shy away from Miller and Romo.