Nick
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Everything posted by Nick
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I can be a dick sometimes. Probably trying to get a rise out of one of you. I really have tremendous respect for all these guys, even Brasier.
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With sincere apology to Red, let's talk about 2023 and beyond. Following players will be with us 4+ years, counting the options. Hopefully we can add Devers name to it for 8 years. Top tier players (in my projection) 6 Casas (1B) 6 Whitlock (SP) 6 Bello (SP) 6 Kutter (P) 6 Mata (SP) 5 Story (2B) 5 Yoshida (LF/DH) 5 Houck (P) 4 Schreiber (RP) Others 6 Wong © 6 Seabold (P) 6 Duran (OF) 6 Mills (P) 6 Winckowski (P) 6 K. Ort (P) 6 German (P) 4 Dalbec (IB/3B/DH) 4 Darwinzon (RP) I'm sure some will be a flop or already is one. I enjoy watching someone like Bello pitch. Great thing about TV is I can always turn it off. I'm probably little more optimistic than most of you. Having won 4 rings over the last 20 years probably has great deal to do with my optimism. PS. I just don't like Bloom telling Kike "we're be MUCH better". Hopefully he was misquoted. Maybe said something like "we MAY BE MUCH BETTER".
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Yeah, what about it? He was a great player for the Sox. He is NOT on my roster. He plays for the Padres. Come on Red. He took the most money and I'm happy for him. I've been a Sox fan since 1967. Great ones come and go.
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My choice for ss at this point would be Jose Iglesias. He would be my 'placeholder' for either Mayer or Rafaela. I get the sense that Rafaela is more ready now than Mayer. Sox is high on Rafaela at multiple positions. Eventually they will both be starters in my opinion. As a side note, please do not get cute and move Story to shortstop. That's is all we need is for him to get hurt playing short. Keep him at second base, PERIOD. I will be PISSED at Bloom if a move is made.
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#1 Identify the core group. 4+ years of team control. #2 Fill the roster around them.... #3 Wait for youngsters to develop...Casas as an example....lock him down after this year #4 Extend Devers for 8 years ..trade him he rejects the offer #5 Xander who?
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This +1000 Bello Whitlock is our future. Kluber is a placeholder for Mata
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#1 this was the year to reset. I nlame Bloom for the mistake he made at the trade deadline. To go over by $4M was a big mistake. Our pitching will be better. Pay attention yo Bello and Whitlock. I expect Mata to join them in 2023. Thats is our future.
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Bloom is counting on Sale Paxton and Whitlock. At some point he will need to deliver on his promises. I am willing to give him two more years.
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We're vrying over Hill? He is not in the core group going forward. I don't care what he did in 2022. He is a coin flip pitche I rather see Mata gain experience than some over the Hill guy pitch.
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We are still looking to bolster our starting rotation. Not .sure it's a wise move to trade him when his value is so low. Despite what our Yankee fan says, Sale still has more upside than anyone else.
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Oops update on Cot's....does not have Justin Turner's payroll. We'll have about $40M to spend.
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We are going below the luxury tax line in 2023. Coming off the books after 2023, $16.500M Devers $10.000M Kike $09.375M Barnes $04.000M Paxton $02.500M Brasier Total $42.375M Sure looks like we have the money to spend.
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Just looking at the spray chart for Justin Turner. He makes tons of fly ball outs to opposite field. He just needs to pull it at Fenway. Most of his homers are to left/center, left field. His groundball outs are to the short. Just odd. I predict his offensive production will be close to Xander's. He had more RBI's than Xander in 2022 in about 90 less at bats. He hit 13HR to 15HR for Xander. He just looks strong to me. OPS of .788 vs .833.
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In my dreams, Mets are completely out of it by the All-Star break and they make Verlander available. Of course we are in contention so we swoop in and pick him up.
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Cot now has our tax payroll at $185M. We're $48M under the cap. Turner article in MassLive indicated that Devers needs to DH more in order to get him off of his feet and mitigate injury situation. I guess my concern is that the organization is concerned about his playing health. Again, Devers health is not my concern. But it does appear that the organization is concerned about it. I'm now less than 50/50 on the Sox extending Devers. Ugh. PS. Mets now up to $384M in tax payroll.
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Let's wait and see the offer made to Devers. It should be big enough so the Sox will not be embarrassed.
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I was alluding to his performance after he signs his mega deal. Not getting fat before the extension.
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Famous line from the movie "Rounders"......"Give the man his money". Devers is projected to earn $16.5M in his arbitration year 3. Just tack on another $20M and call it a day. IT'S REALLY NOT COMPLICATED. WE'RE BIG MARKET BALL CLUB. ONE CONTRACT AT $35M WILL NOT SINK US. What exactly is the downside? Is he going to forget how to hit? Will he load up on tacos and get fat? I think he played hurt in 2022, at least he was not 100%. We'll still have $20M left to acquire couple more players. (assuming we wanted to get below the tax line). 15 Years...Devers 06 Years...Casas 06 Years...Story (counting option year) 06 Years...Whitlock (counting club option for 2 years) 06 Years...Bello 05 Years...Yoshida 05 Years...Houck 04 Years...Schrieber This would be the start of our core group to go after another title.....
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I'm not sure if we ever resolved the luxury tax issue with Hosmer........but Cot's 'available money' will go up by $5M now to $48M as soon as he's off of our books. Not many teams are faced with luxury tax penalty for 2023 so picking up Hosmer for minimum wage but additional tax money attached will have no consequences to that team.
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I am against trading away our young talent. With Bloom's approach, he needs another season for younger kids to grow a year older and hopefully get better. As I've said often, I'm having trouble nailing down the core group that will get us to the playoffs annually. My concerns would be alleviated if we do extend Devers this winter. Right now I'm not very optimistic of that happening. So the core group right now consists of Story (due to his contract length), Yoshida, Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Houck and maybe couple of others. That is not a deep roster. It was stupid not to get under the tax limit during July. Bloom basically treaded water. Did just enough not to piss off the fanbase. See what that got us.
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Tanner Houck was 8-9 in save opportunities. Hansel Robles blew 6 saves. Strahm was only 4-9 in save opportunities. My favorite whipping boy Brasier blew 4 saves.
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Blown Saves in 2022 Rays 36 80 Marlins 31 71 Brewers 30 81 Cubs 30 74 Rangers 29 64 Red Sox 28 65 Pirates 28 60 Angels 27 65 Twins 27 64 Braves 27 81 Arizona 26 58 Blue Jays 25 70 Athletics 24 57 White Sox 23 70 Padres 22 69 Reds 22 52 Giants 21 61 Royals 21 53 Rockies 21 62 Yankees 21 66 Dodgers 18 61 Phillies 18 59 Guardians 18 68 Nationals 17 45 Tigers 16 53 Cardinals 16 53 Astros 16 68 Mets 15 55 Mariners 15 54 Orioles 13 58
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Maybe I'm way off but I really did not see drop off in catching, statistically speaking. There has to be some leap of faith. I would hope Sale can replace Eovaldi. We have entire year of Bello. I believe he'll be as good as Pivetta. His stuff certainly is there. We also will have whole year of Whitlock. I would hope he can equal or better say Hill's contribution. Put it in another way 2023 (Sale+Bello+Whitlock+Paxton) = Eovaldi+Hill+less than whole year of Bello and Whitlock in 2022. We need to add another starter to replace Wacha. Xander gone obviously is a problem. Is it possible that incremental improvements at other positions plus bigger contribution from Story at 2B will get us close to 2022 offensive production? Again, I have to believe there will be another addition to the position roster. Thus, my whole point is (which I did not say) if offense and starting pitching productivity remain relatively equal, will the difference in pen production get us to 10 more wins? Or maybe it will provide us with 15 game improvement less 5 game reduction from other areas, still netting us 10 game improvement.
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From 30,000 feet above Fenway. Tampa qualified for the playoffs with 86 wins. Based on number of blown saves we had last year and the additions we've had thus far in the pen, is it reasonable to expect a 10 game turn around? That would give us 88 wins. Despite all of my bitching, I am always optimistic about our Sox. For me, Xander was GONE when the extension did not occur prior to opening day. All the analysis now just gives me headache. I will feel the same way about Devers in 2023. We are in the best position to negotiate with Devers RIGHT NOW. Not next October. PS. I have seen rumblings about how Bloom totally messed up about going over the luxury tax line in 2022. I will give him a benefit of doubt but that was an unforced error in my book.
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DD's been on my mind.
