S5Dewey

Yep, yep, and yep. It's too bad about Porcillo, too. He's been an innings eater with a reasonable ERA. If he could get through 6 innings with an ERA of ~5.00 he would be giving up just under 3.5 runs per appearance. That's very satisfactory for a #3 guy, especially when he's pitching for one of the best offenses in baseball. Oh well. :-(

Thanks for taking the time to respond, and for doing it in a way that isn't trying to make you sound like you're "right". The thing I find frustrating about this team is that I have no quibble with those guys who play in back of that bump in the middle of the infield, or the catcher for that matter. In fact, I'd try to bring all the 'starters' back for another year. Their defense is better than "good enough" and they're scoring enough runs to win games. How much more can we expect from those guys? There's only one glaring weakness. it's in the position that it'll take the most resources to solve, and barring a completely open checkbook we don't have the resources to solve them. That's frustrating. I keep asking myself how can the #1, #2, & #3 pitchers all fall apart at the same time. I certainly don't have an answer to that but if I were Dana LeVangie I wouldn't be buying a house in Boston right now.

Disclaimer: I didn't see the game. This is what I've gleaned from the box score. It looks like Porcillo gave up 3 runs in the first, then settled in and pitched four scoreless innings giving up a total of five hits. Unfortunately two of them were HR's. He's always been plagued by the gopher ball but usually they're solo shots. This guy's got to get his act together if the Sox are going to get back into any semblance of the fray.

Aw, c'mon. When you say that "it’s not like once Bradley is non-tendered, he’s necessarily gone. He might be brought back for less", you're just grasping at straws. This was the same attitude we took with Jon Lester, remember? "Let's let him go and then re-sign him in the off season" - and how did THAT work out??? Are you prepared to guarantee that Legares or Maybin are available to play for the Sox? It's easy to pick these names out of Baseball Reference or the like but getting them to Boston is another story. The problem is that we don't have the luxury of waiting to see what Mookie is going to do before we decide about JBJ. I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that Mookie is leaving so I'm thinking about what the team looks like without him. What I see is an adequate RF'er (a/k/a somebody else's average CF'er with some pop) with his defensive inadequacies made up for by JBJ's range. I think we're in agreement that JBJ's range might be underrated because Mookie makes plays on balls in the gap that most RF'ers wouldn't get to. And OTOH, if I'm wrong and Mookie stays it could make parting with JBJ's salary and defense more palatable in the future.

I don't know what kind of a salary Smith would command, or if we could even afford him. I try to defer to Mr.Moon on topics of salary since he's the one here who has his finger on the payroll. I'm now conflicted on the topic of having a lights-out closer. Remember, if we had Kimbrel this year (and his salary) he'd have spent far too much time on the bench wishing we had a lead going into the 9th. Our problem hasn't been that we don't have a closer. Our problem is that those guys in the bullpen have blown too many games before the 9th inning. And yes, Kimmie, I also think that much of that MIGHT be due to the fact that our starters can only go five innings. Or maybe it is that those guys in the pen just plain suck. Based on what I've seen this year I'd rather have Brandon Workman and his salary as the closer as opposed to Craig Kimbrel and his salary.

I hope you don't think I am part of a group that minimizes the value of defense, especially up the middle and in Fenway's RF. As you may know, JBJ has been my favorite Sox player since he was called up. I love great defense, but I also recognize there are many excellent defensive CF'ers in MLB these days, and some are less expensive and maybe even more steady on offense. I've also never wavered from my position that we should pay Betts top dollar on a long term contract. One reason for that is his great defense in a park that demands top defense. I've known all along that you and I are on board with JBJ and what he brings to 'up the middle' defense. I also agree that he may not be the best CF'er in baseball (although some of those guys who've made a career out of baseball might disagree with that). However, there's a very real possibility that if JBJ isn't a part of the team in 2020 we may not only not have JBJ, we might also not have any of those guys who are as good as he is. The fact that those guys are out there doesn't automatically make them a part of the Red Sox. I'm looking at the budget. I'm looking at JBJ's age and slightly declining defensive skills. I'm looking at his continued offensive peaks and extended valleys. But, mostly I'm looking at his projected arb cost and our frightenly high budget going forward. I think we need to reset within the next 2 years, in order to rebuild more quickly and to promote a better extended future for our budget and competitiveness. I'm thinking JBJ has to go to have any chance at resetting AND at keeping Betts (or replacing Betts with a high-priced FA). I know I keep saying this but I sometimes feel like nobody is listening: If JBJ is non-tendered there is a real chance that we will be without both JBJ and Mookie in 2021... and no guarantee that the players who replace them will be nearly as good as either of them. And since I'm no rocket scientist I'm thinking that DD may be thinking the same way. I'd love to keep both. Maybe we can not offer JBJ arb, but still sign him (for less). I certainly want to keep Betts and have suggested a 10 year offer, which is probably more than anyone here would give him. I'm with you on that. I'd give him a 10 year offer tomorrow, and I'd also buy out Devers arb years and extend him, but I'm not sure we could afford to do all of that. I don't think we reset this winter either, but I think that's a mistake. I'm not for "trashing" this team. I want to reset, so WE CAN KEEP BETTS. I want to keep the core in place, reset next year, spend big for 2021, including a Betts extension, and with a reset budget, we can spend large for 2-3 more years. With a decent draft pick this year and next, maybe we can build the farm up better than we did when we won the division 3 years in a row and had draft penalties and reduced international pool monies. See, I don't think not resetting this year is a mistake at all. Teams like this don't come along every few years. We have the core we need. All we need is for the pitching staff to come through like they have in the past and we can reasonably expect (at least two of) them to do. As I see it we have one more year of that window we've been talking about and we should make the best of it. I'm hopeful Workman continues pitching well, but he's a FA after next year. It may be hard keeping JBJ, Betts and role guys like Workman. I'm hopeful our starters can rebound next year, but at their ages, I don't think we can count on it. I'm hopeful Barnes rebounds. I'd like to see us extend or re-sign Betts plus sign a top closer for 2021. A one year reset and rebuild might just work. I do agree that sooner or later there's going to be a piper to be paid but IMO the time to do it is 2021, not 2020. When that times comes there are going to be some very difficult decisions to be made regarding players like Devers, Sale, Bogaerts, and JBJ and/or Mookie but right now that window is open and there's a warm breeze flowing through it. Just like "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It might rain tomorrow", I'd say 'Don't botch a chance to win another ring in 2020 in fear of the cost in 2021. Some team may be unbeatable in 2021'. I want to keep the core, too, but I want to be good for a long time, and I don't think spending our way out of every problem is a sustainable philosophy. Henry seems to be hinting at that realization recently. Even a closer this year would not have been enough. You know that saying you 'want the Sox to be good for a long time... ...is not a sustainable philosophy', is a contradiction, don't you? I don't just want them to be good. I want them to be REAL good. I watched them have 'good' years having that philosopy for 81 years. I've tried the "always the bridesmaid, never the bride" and now I've found that I prefer being the bride even if it means having years like 2014 & 2015. That's the frustrating thing about 2019 for me. This team is not only not going to win their division, they're not bad enough to profit from it!

I believe people sorely underrate the defensive importance of those two guys who run around in CF and RF. I also think the pitching staff would agree with that. While it may be inevitable that we lose one of them, losing both of them would be a comparative disaster. That's why I think he's going to hold on to JBJ until the question of Mookie is settled. I don't look for JBJ to go to arbitration. I believe they'll settle with him before that, if only to see where they stand. I don't see a reset during the winter of 2019-2020. IMO there are only three pieces of the puzzle who are having down years and that's not enough to reset this upcoming winter. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is among the leaders in runs scored, we may have the best defensive outfield in baseball, and the left side of the infield is solid both offensively and defensively, as is catching. That's not a team you trash. The problem is the top three in our pitching staff, all of whom are having unexpected down years. A Perfect Storm of pitching, if you will. And yes, we need a closer. Enough of this hogwash of closer by committee and enough of having our best closer pitch earlier in the game (although I was an advocate of it earlier). Brandon Workman is looking pretty darn good to me right now. In assessing this team the first thing I look at is what we've got. IMHO the core of this team is solid enough to give them another shot at a ring and it's not unreasonable to think that our top three pitchers can come back stronger. Going with what we've got makes more sense to me than selling off key players thereby making holes at their current position. Regardless of what he chooses to do, DD is gambling. He's either going to gamble that he can adequately fill the positions of the players he trades for pitchers (with no guarantee that the pitchers he gets are going to be a lot better than the ones he's replacing) or he gambles that our Top Three can come back in 2020. To answer your question, I can see the Sox going over the second line and not the max line in 2020. What happens after that will depend on what happens during the 2020 season.

That may be the question here but I'm not as certain as some are that it's the question in DD's mind. DD may very well be thinking that losing both JBJ & Mookie in a two year period (IOW, destroying what may be the best defensive OF in baseball) may be being penny wise and pound foolish. I see the Sox paying JBJ's arbitration raise and waiting another year until the situation with Mookie is resolved before making any decisions on JBJ.

There must be more than one here who didn't learn how to read because I took it the same way too. Could it be...... naw... it's got to be us.

I don't suppose anyone heard O'B, Eck and Remy talking about JBJ during the game last night. They seem to think that WAR is overrated when it pertains to JBJ due to some significant flaws in the calculation. O'B mentioned that in consecutive years Ellsbury went from the CF with one of the worst WAR's in baseball to being at the top of the list the next year and that in itself should bring the calculation into question. But.. what do these guys know? All they've done is have baseball be their lives forever. That can't possibly compare with a person who's studied numbers for all of their adult life... can it?

Let's see...we could have the best AAA team and the best farm teams in baseball in 2019 & 2019...or we could have a flag flying and a 3rd place finish. I'll take Door #2, Monty.

Interesting post-game interviews with Cora and Sale. Cora said there was a lot of work done in the past few days and he "wouldn't talk about what it was" while Sale OTOH seemed to downplay whatever has happened since his last start.

The thing I continue to find amusing is that when DD signed ^^That guy^^ the overall reaction was, "Why him? Why not focus on signing Betts?", while signing Mookie was doubtful at best. As it turns out, DD got his man.

My only question is why did it take me four paragraphs in the Realistic thread to say what Kimmie said here?

To the "Realistic" thread on Trade Day.. Here's what I see as being Realistic - Barring one of those "anything can happen" scenarios this team definitely isn't good enough to win the WS. They're probably not good enough to win the ALCS. They might be able to win their ALDS series. But only if they win the WC game, which is a crap shoot in itself. They don't have enough prospects to make a trade for a pitcher that will significantly help the rotation or the bullpen. Given all of that I DO NOT want to see DD do something that will hamper this team in 2020 just so he can "do SOMETHING even if it isn't right". If he can make some small move that will make this team more palatable and help get them into the WC game I'm all for it but he should not be mortgaging the future of the Boston Red Sox in hopes of getting into the WC game when the rest of the pitching staff may not even be good enough to even get through the ALDS. I'm disappointed in this team but I've been disappointed before and lived through it. My "goal" for this team right now is for the rotation to start to look like last year's rotation so we don't part with some pitcher(s) who play well for someone else next year after having slumped in 2019.

Sign me up for the club.

Here's my concern about Chavis. We have an occasional poster here who goes by "Dustpan" who's a retired doctor and he once said that the effects of PED's can remain in the system for [iIRC] a couple of years. We may be seeing the "real" Michael Chavis now... or he may be regressing to his pre-PED numbers. I'm not done with Chavis now by any means. I think 'everyone' (Jeffrey Dahlmer types excluded) deserves a second chance after making a mistake. I like what he's saying and doing but I want to give him more time before I make any long-term commitments to him.

This post is one of the things I wish I'd said.

Exactly. You trust your teammate.

According to the guys on the radio Bogarts was pointing to 1B and yelling at JBJ to throw the ball there because the runner was way off the base. Apparently they both though the 1B coach was Moreland.

ARod should be an analyist for an AM station in Idaho.

This..this is ridiculous. They're televising ARod getting a birthday cake?? And JLo is in the booth? THIS is why I have OB on the radio and the tv on. There's a delay between the radio coverage and the tv coverage (radio is first) so anytime something happens that's worth seeing I can watch it on tv.

Crow is a dish best eaten cold.

You apparently weren't here for this conversation but what if the Sox (dare I say this) SWEEP this series? Does that change your opinion any?

That's a pretty low bar, though. Right now there's nobody out there whom I have confidence in. Workman is the best looking pup in the litter.