S5Dewey

Sign #1: 5/12/16

I'd prefer Hanley to Napoli in 2016. For one thing, since Hanley is signed he has to play someplace until (maybe) he becomes our FT DH. Also, without looking it up it "feels" like his K rate is a lot lower than Napoli's. And of course while Hanley's commitment re injuries was questioned up until this year, there is always the ongoing issue of Napoli and his hips. The downside of course is that Hanley is making $22M/year while Napoli is making $7M.

Call me T. Rex. I put very little faith in defensive metrics, for the reason(s) Hugh has said. No one person can be on every field during every game so either the players are being "rated" by a television screen or we have different people with different standards doing the rating at different parks. Offensive metrics are quantifiable. BA =Hits/AB's. OPS =SLG+OBP. Defensive metrics are sometimes determined by someone saying, "Gee, I think a normal player would have gotten to that ball. What do you think, Bob?" Regardless of the sample size, when I see a metric that says that Jacoby Ellsbury is a better outfielder than JBJ I immediately question the methodolgy.

RSDD and I have eaten a considerable amount of crow over our position regarding Hanley at 1B. I think I can speak for him when I say that while the meal wasn't very tasty it was well worth eating.

Some of the people from the old board have heard this already, so forgive me. I was at a Red Sox function in Maine over the winter where Stiggy was present in a question and answer format. He said that night that "If you're at a game against Toronto this summer and you see Bautista be good to him because he may be the Sox DH in 2017". And that was Stiggy's take on it, who may have a good feel for things.

That's maybe the thing I like the most about this offense. Everyone is in it so if one or two players go into a slump we'll still be scoring enough runs to win games. And if all players on a team go into a slump at the same time they're not going to win many games regardless of how good they were at some point. I don't see a downside.

There's no doubt about that. A woman has a baby and in a couple of years she's willing to do it again. Let a man get kicked in the balls just ONCE and he swears it will NEVER happen again. Hmmm.. does that pass the censors on this board?

Ok. Leaving those two things out, it's still a good idea!

I like that strategy. When you consider the fact that whether a runner is safe or out at second base on a straight steal is usually measured in 10ths of a second the chances of a catcher fielding a ball in the dirt, making a clean transfer to his throwing hand and then making an accurate throw are quite low, a runner's chances of being successful are quite high. I've always been surprised that other teams/runners don't employ that strategy. We do have to remember that once in a while he's going to get caught at it. When that happens we also have to remember the times he was successful.

My understanding is the DD tried to trade for JBJ when he was in Detroit. He couldn't get Mohammed to come to the mountain so he brought he mountain to Mohammed.

It's not only speed, it's smarts, Some of these players who are stealing bases aren't necessarily fast, they're just taking advantage of situations. Hanley isn't going to win the 100 yard dash against anyone with real speed. I've seen Travis Shaw steal a base because the pitcher wasn't checking on him. I've seen Mookie (whom I'll grant you has good speed) steal a base because he can see that a pitch is going to be in the dirt. That's not just speed. That's smart, and IMO it has to disrupt the thinking of the infielders and it also builds team momentum.

I'm trying to not dwell on that, and Shaw is making it easier to do. But that doesn't alter my opinion of what I thought of the trade at the time.

If he's not streaky he's going to be one of the greatest hitters who ever lived. I can see his hot streaks being around .900 OPS and him norming out at about .750. I'll take that and GG caliber defense at every position, thanks!

I don't want to be the one to rain on this parade because I'm enjoying it as much as anyone, but.... Let's keep things in perspective and remember that individual offenses ebb and flow and I can't see this team hitting much better than they are right now. If they can keep this up through 162 they're going to be scary good but that may be a bit unrealistic. They're on a pace today to win 98 games and IMO that will get the job done. If (WHEN) Price comes around and Buch has his 1/2 year spurt of excellence this team will be better than ok but at least one of those things has to happen to compensate for when our offense comes back to earth. In the meantime let's enjoy the ride... and hope that in late August we can look back on this post and say that I was wrong... this offense IS this good, all day, every day!

Yes. I agree and I'm aware of that. My post was more of a reply to "harmony" (a/k/a Hill on the other board) who has a habit of cherry-picking statistics to make Red Sox players look worse than they really are. You'll get used to it eventually and give his posts the weight they deserve.

Man, I guess I either need to have my eyes poked out or I a need a crash course in advanced metrics. My understanding of UZR/150 is that a "normal" center fielder would have a UZR/150 of 0 and all calculations area a deviation from 0. If I read this correctly Bradley Jr. has a UZR/150 of -14.6 and is 20th out of 24 in range factor. Ellsbury, OTOH, is 6th in Range Factor with +13.2. This proves what I've always suspected, that when it comes to statistics, eyes are absolutely useless. WAR, of course, which uses range factor in its calculations, is the be-all, end-all of statistics. /s/ Could it be that we've become so obsessed with statistics that we can no longer see the forest for the trees?

8 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. That'll drive the ERA up!

This Maneda's got nothing!

When things are going well everything goes well. Right Hanley?

I was going to mention last night that it seems like Mookie gets good wood on the ball on his first AB in every game.

I hate ESPN because (among other reasons) they control too much of the scheduling. I used to drive to Boston (4+ hours from home) on Friday with the intention of seeing at least two games of a weekend series, including a Sunday afternoon game, but no more. I don't feel confident that a game scheduled for 1:00 on Sunday is going to be played at 1:00. ESPN has the power to change a 1:00 game to an 8:00 game on Sunday night and they frequently do. Therefore any ticket a person buys for a 1:00 Sunday game with the plan of watching the game and then driving home may turn out to be a ticket for an 8:00 game and an 8:00 Sunday night game is ridiculous for people who don't live right in Boston, especially if they have to go to work on Monday morning. But do you know what? ESPN doesn't care because they're going to sell the advertising and the Red Sox organization doesn't care because the tickets are already sold. Except mine. I don't buy them any more. Instead I watch the game on tv and listen to Aaron F. Boone.

Keep in mind that if you talk to anyone on the old BDC board you'll find that JBJ most likely doesn't have a bigger fan than I am. Unless maybe it's Slash. We've been saying that he will hit and even if he doesn't hit it's worth having him there just for his defense. Now... putting JBJ's error in the context of the game the error was inconsequential and it looked like it would be right from the beginning. I don't believe it was the fact that he made an error as much as it was the type of play he failed to make that raised the ire of the fans. It was a routine fly ball that he let clank off his glove. An error that was caused by lack of basic fundamentals that even a Little Leaguer shouldn't make. I've heard some rumblings from friends (not on the boards) for some time about how casually he plays fly balls off to one side of his body and this time it caught up with him. I think everyone is pleased that the time it caught up with him was a time when it didn't matter in the outcome of the game. I wouldn't be surprised if someone (Butterfield?) had a little chat with him after the game about the fundamentals of catching fly balls. Whether the booing was malicious or was intended as a reminder that there's a better way to handle fly balls was in the eyes of the boo-er, but IMHO having a great stretch or game at the plate doesn't excuse a lack of fundamentals. A player simply has to make the routine plays regardless of the game situations.

Wait.... the next thing you'll be hearing is that we should trade Bradley because he's "streaky".

Bradley looks like he's going to re-create August of 2015.

Jbj should be declared illegal!