S5Dewey

LOL No.. that was tonight. It just remains the same @ 25% until it happens! Which, BTW, I think is inevitable sooner or later. This reminds me of the old Yankees rivalry when they were just itchin' to get at one another. Tampa Bay too.

Yeah, we are. If we're talking about a player's mental state that's exactly what we're talking about. Their mental state and how it affects their play.

What are the odds of a bench-clearing brawl tonight? I'm saying about 25%, which is large when compared with a 'normal' game.

Are we getting back into the area of "chocking" and "clutch" here?

This is one of those areas where I think we can drive ourselves 'nutso' with statistics. We don't know what a significant sample size is - obviously the bigger the better - but we dismiss some sample sizes as being too small to be meaningful. That raises the question of where 'meaningful' starts. Some like to talk about 500 PA's, roughly a full season. Others think half that. The number is arbitrary. While I believe that all sample sizes are meaningful I wouldn't drive myself crazy trying to fit every PA into a statistical package but I would give a small sample size some weight. Take catching for example. Right now Vaz is hitting .412 in 34 AB's while Leon is hitting .180 in 50 AB's. It's very likely that neither of those is sustainable and both are certainly SSS's. I tend to go with trends. I'd be more inclined to keep Vaz in the lineup and see where he is than I would to put Leon in, in spite of the fact that neither of them has what could be called a meaningful sample size.

Bill James said this and I echoed it here some time ago. Use your best reliever - a/k/a your closer - to maintain a lead rather than save him for the 9th to try to preserve one that may no longer be there. I've always wondered why the 'stat people' didn't buy right into this. Wouldn't it make more sense to have Kimbrel pitching to a #4-5-6 hitter in the 7th inning of a close game with runners on base than to start with a clean inning and pitch to #7-8-9 in the 9th?

C'mon Erod. let's not give those runs back!

For a whole bunch of reasons. Here's a couple. The late start - and late finish - which means what I've heard referred to as the Sunday Night Death March, and that we have to put up with the ESPN announcers. Aaron f***in' Boone? Really? Ugh.

I'm trying to figure out if the poster is serious about this. Is it saying that a team should always go for it on 4th down? This is so situational as to be useless without the proper context. If these statistics said that if a team went for it on 4th down every time they were in 4th and 23 or if they were inside their opponents 30 yard line I'd think about it, but that's not what it implies. To say that if a team has the ball 4th and 10 from their own 20 yard line they should go for it.... That's a recipe for giving up a lot of touchdowns.

I'm not upset with the offense. They got people on base and then those DP's in three consecutive innings ruined things. I'll take the people getting on base and take my chances with the DP's.

It's like Joe Morgan, He had a "hunch" I guess. I'm just thankful and surprised that it worked

Who are we supposed to root for in that hot mess? UGH

In retrospect, which is the easiest way to judge a decision. But based on Abad's past experiences Farrell dodged a bullet there.

I'll agree with the first part of this post, but I'm not so sure about the second part. :-)

As Stiggy would say, "Can you believe it?" Abad got two hitters in a row.

..and now he's coming into the game. Is Farrell even trying to win this game??

Sweet Lovin' God... Abad is loosening up in the bullpen.

I think it's a State Law. If you walk the leadoff man he HAS to score. Ugh

Uhhh... Jealousy?

No, no, no, no, no. When Pedey takes a low and outside pitch and 'serves' the ball to RF he's TRYING to do that. Anyone who's played baseball knows that it's easier to hit an outside pitch to the opposite field than it is it "inside out" it. And it's a lot easier to hit a bloop hit over the infield by going with an outside pitch than it his to "inside out" it. An inside out swing usually results in a line drive, which is why LH hitters like to hit to the wall in Fenway - it's a line drive rather than a bloop hit. The strike zone is an arbitrary area designed to give a hitter the best chance to hit the ball, but that doesn't mean that the strike zone is the only area in which a hitter can control the flight of the ball. It's just where MOST hitters can do it. It's easier to take a low and outside pitch and serve it to the opposite field because the batter is hitting the ball where it's pitched, but only if the hitter has good bat control.

Your position about randomness in hitting (especially in clutch situations) has been very consistent. If it's not a repeatable skill then it's random. So, like being clutch, since getting hits is not a repeatable skill it has to be random. Actually I've always thought that there's a lot of luck in hitting - or at least in the result of hitting the ball. When a ball is hit between that both the 3B & the SS almost get to - but can't - there was a lot of luck in getting that hit. When an outfielder dives and catches the ball in the webbing of his glove he was lucky to have been playing where he was because if he'd been one step farther from where he caught the ball he wouldn't have been able to make the catch. I don't think any player can strike the ball with pinpoint accuracy to put the ball where he wants it nor do I believe that any fielder can accurately predict the exact spot where the ball will be hit. There's a factor of luck involved in it. I'm not saying hitting is all luck. IMO when a player squares up on a ball he has a better chance of getting a hit. Like everything in baseball, it doesn't work EVERY TIME but he has a better chance of getting on base with a hard-hit ball then with a dribbler. If you believe that good luck/bad luck evens out over 500 AB's then luck is a wash and the difference between a good hitter and a weaker hitter is the result of how well he strikes the ball, his hitting technique and his strength. But there's still some luck involved in it.

A WEAKNESS?? That's called 'hitting the ball where it's pitched', something both Pedey and Bogaerts are very good at.

You know you're venturing into the minefield of those things that can't be statistically proven, don't you?

With all due respect, you're trying to have this both ways here. On the one hand you say that great hitters don't "try" to get a hit. On the other hand you say that they get their hits when they get their pitches to hit. So when Pedey and Bogaerts reach out and 'serve' a ball into right field is it that they're trying to get a hit or is it that they're not trying to get a hit but just got a pitch they could handle? Because it looks to me like they're trying to get a hit.

Early Friday morning and I learned something new already!