moonslav59

Where else do we need or want Bobby Dee to play?

Agreed, unless we are okay with 4 position changes: Devers to 1B Casas to DH Yoshida to LF Duran to CF (Rafaela to AAA) Just sign Monty and let the games begin.

It will likely come down to his health in 2024.

Although he's not on the 40, this may signal the end to Dalbec's tenure on our 40.

Yes, of course. I did not think it needed to be mentioned that some years had weaker systems than others. That being said, just finding 1 or 2 prospects that were better than who sp's placed in the top 3 does not mean sp's is a bad ranking service. It's not an easy thing to get perfectly right. Here are some better prospects than the "bad ones" that were in the top 3 in the past 9 seasons: 2021: 4. Houck > 2. Downs (18. Wong, too) 6. Bello > 3. Yorke (13. Wink, maybe 15. Bleis, 16. Wong) 2020: 7. Duran> 3. Mata (8. Houck), also both > 2. Downs (late '20) 2019: 5. Houck> 1. Chavis, 2. DHern maybe 19. Rafaela> 2. Mata, 3. Groome 2018: 4. Houck & 13. Beeks> 1. Groome, 2. Chavis, 3. Mata (only 2 in top 20 look okay, now shows how bad the farm was in 2018.) 2017: 4. Houck & 10. Beeks> 1. Groome, 2. Chavis, 3. Same Travis (after Devers & Beni graduated) 2016: 5. Devers, 3. Margot, 8. Barnes, 10. Kopech> 1. Swihart & 3. Owens (bad year for sp's.) 2015: 6. ERod & 8. Barnes> 3. Owens 5. Beni> 3. Espinoza (later in '15) 2014: 10. Betts, 18. Devers, 8. Barnes, 9. Workman, 13. Vaz > 3. Owens (later #3 Swihart) 5. ERod>2. Owens I'm not trying to slight sp's. I'm not trying to say some of these farms were better than they were. Some were much worse than others. soxprospects.com does a very good job with its rankings.

Take away salary, BTV places these projected dollar values on our current MLB or MLB ready players: (Years of control adds value) 323/10 Devers 90/5 Bello 87/5 Casas 78/4 Yoshida 60/5 Duran 46/4 Houck 43/5 Crawford 39/2 Giolito (really one year) 37/5 Whitlock 34/4 Story 30/6 Grissom 25/6 Abreu 23/4 Rafaela 20/6 EValdez (seems very high) 19/5 Winckowski 16/1 Pivetta 14/6 Walter (seems very high) 14/1 Jansen 11/1 O'Neill 10/6 Bernardino 8.5/4 Reyes 7.4/1 Martin (seems low) 6.3/2 McGuire 5.7/6 Campbell, Murphy & DHam 4.9/2 Refsnyder 4.4/5 Wong (seems low) ~4/5 R Gonzalez, Weissert, ZKelly Value per year: 32.3 Devers 19.4 Yoshida 11.4 Houck 19.2 Giolito 18.0 Bello 17.5 Casas 13.9 Jansen 12.0 Duran 11.2 O'Neill 8.5 Crawford 8.4 Story 7.5 Whitlock 7.4 Martin 5.0 Grissom 4.1 Abreu 3.9 Winckowski 3.9 Rafaela 3.4 Valdez 3.2 McGuire 2.5 Refsnyder 2.4 Walter 2.2 Wong 2.1 Reyes 1.7 Bernardino 1.0 Campbell, Murphy, DHam 0.8 ZKelly, Weissert, Heineman & RGonzalez

I'm not worried about his health, all that much. The TJS adds risk to longer term deals, but to me, he'd be fine for 3 years, and to get a good pitcher like him, it almost always takes at least 1 more year. I'd offer him a 3 year deal with a 4th year team option and hefty buyout, and if he insists on 4 guaranteed, I'd do it. Maybe... $70M/3 with a $20M option and $5M buyout- making it $75M/3 or $90M/4. or $85M/5 with $5M in incentives based on GS or IP. I'd probably go as high as $80M/3 or $96M/4.

To some extent, we can look back and see the flaws that were always there for some of our highest ranked past prospects. Pitchers who did not throw over 96 or 97. Pitchers like DHern, with unhittable stuff, but mostly because the pitches were 8 inches off the plate. 1Bmen with power and or high OBP but also high K rates. Guys like Jeter Downs, Swihart and maybe Yorke. Maybe I'm blinded by hope, but I don't see many flaws in Anthony. Teels is a bit unproven. Mayer needs to show he deserves the hype. Here are all the Sox prospects that have been ranked top 3 in the last 9 years (2015-2023): Devers, ERod, Casas, Bello, Beni, Houck, Duran, Moncada (Whitlock was 4th) Anthony, Teel, Mayer Rafaela, Bleis Dalbec, Travis, Yorke, Mata Groome, Downs, DHern, Chavis, Espinoza, Swihart, Owens The "success rate" might be 50%, when all is said and done from this group. 10 years ago, in just 1 season, we saw Betts, Bogey & JBJ in the top 3 (2014.)

We all know many of the highest ranked prospects never pan out or end up as role players or journeymen. While soxprospects.com has done a pretty good job with its rankings, there have been plenty of major swings and misses. All-in-all, I'd rather have more highly ranked prospects than not. I like the chances that 2 out of our top 3 prospects (Anthony, Teel or Mayer) will end up being very solid players to much better than that. I think the odds one does not do well is higher than all 3 doing well, but I like the odds one 2 being good to excellent. The next 4-10 slots is a pretty big drop off. Maybe just 1-2 of those 6 amount to anything special. I'm not sure if this is being a homer or a realist.

He had hip surgery in SEP '22. That might have been part of his issues. Some think making him a SP'er messed him up. The guy had some nasty stuff. I hope he gets it back and stays in the pen.

Devers & Anthony with 2 hits, today. Story with a couple rbi. Whitlock started and K'd 6 in 3 IP (0 BB) 3 hits and 1 ER Criswell went 2 IP (3K, 1BB, 3H, 0ER) Sox won 5-2 and are 4-2 in ST'ing. In 5 IP, this spring, Whitlock has 8 Ks and 0 BBs (4 hits)

Agreed. Close to Rafaela.

Where do you think Grissom would be placed in our prospect rankings, if he still was one? Of course, Jeter Downs was ranked highly, at one point.

Nola 90 wins in 9 seasons 6 wins in 20 GS 12 in27 17 in 33 12 in 34 5 in 12 (2020) 9 in 32 11 in 32 12 in 32 (last 3 years with 32 GS each year: 32 wins or 10.6 per year.) Big money.) Sonny Gray has not had more than 11 wins since 2014. 5, 10, 11, 11, 5, 7, 8, 8 in last 7 years: Big money. Rodon & deGrom just twice, each.

Is there anyone even close?

Is it all that unusual? In the past 3 years (split seasons), I looked at the top SP pitchers by ERA (100+ IP in a season), and here is how many SP'er had 11 wins or less: 24 out of the top 60

Agreed. They must think some fans can't figure it out, so saying it keeps the sham working for them.

It does look like cutting costs was a major factor, and if it also allowed us to sign Giolito, then that helps, some.

Maybe not, but I'd have legit hopes.

LOL. I knew you'd come around! BTW, can anyone name any SP'er with 2500+ IP and a great ERA, who was not very good? How about a pitcher with 2500+ IP, and ERA over 4.50 who was a very good pitcher? Look at the list of exceptions for each stat.

Lets just look at the 29 pitchers who have 2,000+ IP since 2003 (last 2 seasons.) That's a pretty legit sample size. We see guys like Felix (5th best ERA at 3.42) with just a 169-136 record, while Porcello has the worst ERA at 4.40, but has a 150-125 record. Kyle Lohse has an almost identical ERA as Porcello (4.34) and IP, but waas 116-117. Aaron Harang had a better ERA than both but went 118-133. Hell Matt Cain had a very decent 3.68 ERA but went 104-118, while Jarrod Weaver was at 3.63 and went 150-98. Show me wild inconsistencies in the ERA- leaders of the last 20 seasons (2000+ IP) 63 Kershaw 75 Scherzer 76 Verlander 81 Price 82 Hamels 83 Greinke 84 C Lee & Felix 85 Sabathia 86 Lester & Cueto Who clearly doesn't belong? Who below them belongs? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=1&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2004&season=2023&qual=2000&sortcol=13&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Not everything is about Sam.

There are many factors that affect ERA, too, but not to the same extent as W-Ls, and not to the same extent. Falty W-L rules. Run support (and how lucky those runs come, as in not all in 1-2 games) Defense behind the pitcher (not just measured by unearned runs) Strength of opponents faced, especially their line-ups. Park factors (mostly having to do with LHPs v RHPs or long ball pitchers vs GB pitchers and park dimensions.) How quickly your manager yanks you, even if you are doing well, but also when you are getting rocked.

More often than not, yes, but there are so many examples where it is not true, especially for pitchers on bad hitting, bad pens and or bad defensive teams, or who play on teams that score most of their runs in late innings, after the SP has left the game. While it's true we can find exceptions for every stat or metric praised by any of us, it just seems so much easier to find exceptions for W-L pitchers who were better or worse than their record indicated. This can even occur over a long career, so it often does not all "even out" as we go long term, something we say often about most stats. Nolan Ryan went 324-294 over 27 seasons. That's an average of 12-11. It never "evened out" for him. His 3.19 ERA and 2.94 FIP tell the story much better. Show me one pitcher who had a good ERA and his W-L record better described how good he was, and the same for a bad pitcher. Yes, good pitching leads to more wins, but "more" is relative, when you pitch for a team who scored 3 runs for you vs another pitcher who plays on a team that scores 6 for them. Over the long term a better pitcher, who pitches on a bad team) will win less and lose more than a worse pitcher ona team that scores way more when he pitches.

If we were talking vintage Sale, I'd take Sale, easily. I'd also think we'd make the playoffs in 2024.