moonslav59

I doubt we'd have kept O'Neill and then spent that much on Buehler. O'Neill over Sandoval would have cost more, but maybe could have been managed. (Maybe no Chapman, too?)

Let's compare the Sox rotation to the Yankees. fangraphs has the Sox rotation projected as #1 in the AL (#4 in MLB) and the NYY at #6 (3rd in the AL, behind BOS & SEA.) We all know there are way to many questions concerning the Sox rotation that we'd like, but maybe we don't realize how many questions surround the Yankee rotation, too. The Sox: 4.5 Crochet- questions about durability as a SP'er are legit. 2.9 Houck- can he repeat 2024 and maybe give more IP? 2.6 Bello- can he improve on 2023, as 2024 was worse? 1.8 Buehler- health, health, health? 1.6 Crawford- another guy who was better in '23, but showed durability in '23. 1.2 Giolito- the Sox are the only team with 6 guys at 1.2 plus. (Sandoval, Fitts, Criswell, Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer offer nice depth.) The Yanks 3.4 Fried: just turned 31 and has 5 straight seasons of excellent pitching (151 ERA+) and 112 GS out of a possible 140-142ish. Not really an injury concern, but maybe his age will start showing, soon. 3.0 Cole: He was one of the most dependable SP'ers from 2017-2023, averaging about as many starts as possible, every year. He was also about as close to the best from 2018-2023 as can be with a 146 ERA+. He and Fried offer a very formidable 1-2 punch. The only real questions is about 2024 and his age. He turns 35 in September and missed half the 2024 season with injury. His 121 ERA+ was still very good, but was a big drop from his league-leading 165 in 2023. 2.6 Rodon: nobody can claim he is not a huge question mark. This guy only started 33 out of about 76 starts from 2019-2021, then went 31>14>32 in the last 3 seasons- a clear step up, but not really heart-warming dependability. His ERA+ in the past 3 seasons have been about as unpredictable as anyone in MLB: 137>63>104 (103 combined is nothing to get jacked up over.) His 116 ERA+ since 2021 is something to like, though. 1.7 Gil: This 26 year old has enormous promise, no doubt, and he started 29 games in 2024 with a 117 ERA+. His lack of GS'd before last year is the big issue: 20 in 2021 (6 in MLB) and 7 in '23 (1 in MLB) While he certainly looks better than Bello & Crawford, is he more reliable? (Bello had a 107 ERA+ in '23 and Crawford's was 113- not too far from Gil's 2024 number.) Gil's 4.6 BB/9 in 2024 is also a major concern. 1.7 Schmidt: He turns 29, soon, so is in peak prime. He had an excellent 2024 season, in terms of pitching well (146 ERA+,) but the 16 GS was his issue. He did start 62 games from '22-'23, so maybe, missing time is not a major concern. He has a 109 ERA+ over the past 3 seasons, but 106 over the past 2 seasons. Crawford's is 104 and Bello's is 101. He looks better than Bello and Crawford, but it is no sure bet he out pitches them in '25. 0.9 Stroman: He is reportedly being shopped, so maybe he won't even be on their 26 to start the season. To me, he is about equal to Giolito, in terms of production. Gio missed 2024, but Stroman started just 11 games from 2019-2020 out of 45. (Brubaker, Warren & Hampston as so-so depth) I'll take our depth over this, 7 days a week. If the Yanks trade Stroman, they could be one injury away from something awful.

Maybe including Crawford to get Paredes and Cartini is an overpay, but I am super high on Paredes and maybe lower than most on Crawford. I'm not sure HOU takes Abreu, Fitts or Priester and Cespedes for Paredes and Cartini.

Kind of an encouraging video. They call our 1-6 line-up maybe the top in the ALE, without even mentioning Refsnyder. If you count Wong in the 1-7, who had a plus wRC+ in 2024, maybe it stretches to 1-7. (Our #8-9 do not look awful, either.) They spoke of how "atrocious" our defense is, and all the missed winter opportunities to improve it- most notably on Bregman or Arenado. They do not even discuss Yoshida/Ref to LF. They see trading Casas as the only option, if we add a 3Bman, or adding a prospect to Yoshida to trade him. They even suggested sending Casas or Yoshida to AAA, until an injury happens. They spoke of Bregman at 2B, since he had the weakest 3B arm in 2024. As expected, they spoke of the youth that can fill in at our highest need areas: 2B, SS and maybe OF. Having Mayer at SS and Story or Campbell at 2B would "greatly improve" the team defense. We have to fix the lefty unbalance in the line-up, "at some point." They feel Buehler being projected as our 5th best SP'er is wrong. They think he's our #2. They still think the Yanks rotation is better. (I'll write about this, soon.) They "feel good" about the pen, but not great. Good AAA depth. Overall, they say we have strengths on offense, the rotation and the pen, and our only weakness is the defense. Injuries has been our "issue," recently. They speak of the Yanks having less depth, in case of major injuries. The Sox are better equipped to handle any injury, except Devers. They need "health on their side." One guy questions Cora's quality.

I don't see HOU doing this deal. They need offense. They have SP'ers, although they have more battling recent injuries than we do, which is not easy. We can afford to lose Crawford, and if we add the RHB Paredes, we can also afford to part with a LHB that HOU desperately needs in Abreu. It's not my favorite plan to start the season with a Yoshida-Ref platoon in LF, but they would likely combined for an .800+ OPS. Duran can play CF, well and Anthony/Campbell could play RF, if Rafaela stumbles. 1. L Duran CF 2. L Devers 1B/DH 3. R Paredes 3B 4. L Casas DH/1B 5. L Yoshida/R Refsnyder LF 6. R Story SS 7. L Anthony RF/ R Campbell RF/2B (choose one: no platoon) 8. R Campbell 2B or R Rafaela CF or L DHam- R Romy platoon at 2B 9. R Cartini/ RWong C I like this line-up better than 2024's. The D is better at 3B and C and worse in LF

If you count Gio and Hendriks as 2025 additions, Brez has done a lot to bolster the pitching staff, but he's left the other half of the roster up to the kids, and the kids alone. Stop with the "not putting pressure" on them. This is precisely what he did. He replaced McGuire with Narvaez, and that is it on everyday players. Pitching add-ons: Crochet. Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval (Damn! 4 meaningful SP'er additions!) Plus, Criswell, Fulmer, Fitts & Priester from 2024. Hendriks, Chapman, Wilson do not really replace Jansen & Martin, but we also lost some pretty bad RP'ers, so maybe call it even. (Brez added Slaten, Weissert, I Campbell and in 2024.) Great job on the rotation, which needed help, but maybe not this much. Meh on the pen. Nothing on everyday players with no O'Neill replacement. Nothing on improving the defense, beyond hoping for less injuries. Okay, in one area we "took steps," forward. In others, we stood still or took steps backwards. Once, again, it comes down to Story's health & production level, general team health and the kids.

We need actionS- not talk. The worst part is, a couple more minor to moderate additions were all we really need to be pretty strong contenders for 2nd place.

One area we have actually done pretty well on is these one and done OF deals: Renfroe (coulda kept longer than 1)>Duvall> O'Neill.

This is my main beef. If we end up doing something equal or better, in the next few weeks, fine, but I'm not holding my breath. We could have signed Grichuk or Laureano and a pen arm, while still remaining way below the tax line. No excuses, unless we see something else. Not much is less, unless there is a trade. (Bregman and or Robertson?) Arenado? (Yikes!) We have been backed into a corner, where just about the only reasonable available player left is Robertson, (other than a trade) and I seriously doubt we get him.

Paredes is no give away. You are not getting Paredes for Crawford, straight up.

True, but Sale was a walking injury waiting to happen. Arenado is in a 2 year decline.

Crawford, Kelly and Abreu for Paredes and Cartini

If HOU gets Bregman, they still need a LHB in the OF and might want to dump some salary. How about this... Abreu, DHam, Cespedes & Fitts for 3B Isaac Paredes RHP ($6.6M and 2 more arbs) + C Victor Carating ($6M/1 then FA)

Agreed. That's why I put him at SS and Mayer at 3B. When you look at my grouping of top prospects, we seem to have just about every position covered, pretty well. The weakest might be Justin Gonzales at 1B, but we have Casas and Devers under control for many years. Of course, the pitching is the most questionable, but I still insist we have more promising pitchers than we've had in a long time, but still not enough highly promising ones. Only a healthy Perales rates to be top 100 in MLB. Tolle, Fitts, Sandlin, Cason, Early, Valera, D Reyes and Delzine all have a way to go to be near top 100.

Were those his BAbip vs LHPs? His overall BAbip was .279 and .296, the last 2 years and is .291 career. You seem to really value what players did, last year, or over the last half of 2024. Arenado has seen a huge decline in bat speed and hard hit ball rates for two full seasons. I think the sample size is legit. That's not to say he is beyond a resurgence, and maybe Fenway and a change or scenery will help, but I do not expect him to improve, at his age. Hard hit % career: 35.2% (2021>2024: 33.7>31.9>33.8>27.2) He did have a 21.3% line drive % in '24, which is higher than his career 20.4%. His D could even decline, slowly.

I trust the Sox know which pitchers we have in our system with very minimal chances at giving us lasting value. Of course, the ones we identify, are likely the same ones other teams don't want. The trick is to find one some other team likes more than we do, and hope we know more than they do. Unlike some, I think we have begun to improve the pitching pipeline in our system. Counting Whitlock, who we acquired as a prospect, we have seen these pitchers at the MLB level: DD's guys: Houck, Crawford, Bello & Perales (Better than Bloom's combined guys) Bloom's guys: Whitlock, Wink, Dobbins, Guerrero, Early, Kelly, Valera, Monegro, Paez, Mullins, Wehunt Breslow's guys: Slaten, Fitts, Priester, Sandlin, Tolle, Cason, D Reyes, Delzine (This group may be better than Bloom's, too.) I'd avoid trading any of these guys, but for something good, fine. (Notice I did not list Penrod or the vets acquired.) I'm not trying to take anything away from our ring seasons, but those teams were not built on our farm pitching pipeline. 2018: Trade or FA: Sale, Price, Porcello, Nate, ERod (as a prospect) Kimbrel, Kelly, Hembree, Pom, Wright. FARM: Barnes, Velazquez, B Johnson, Workman. 2013: Non Farm: Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, Uehara, Miller, Bailey, Breslow, Peavy, Aceves, Webster, Mortenson. FARM (more this year) Lester, Buch, Wilson (Taz?) 2007: Non Farm: Beckett, Wake, Schill, Tavarez, Timlin (Okajima & Dice K?) FARM: Lester (11 GS) & Papebon 2004: Non Farm: Pedro, Schill, Wake, Lowe, Arroyo, Foulke, Timlin, Embree, Williamson, Leskanic, Mendoza. FARM: basically none Certainly, we have moved in the right direction on building up a pitching pipeline since 2018, but we have failed, badly on our non farm additions.

I was one of the first poster who suggested then advocated for Devers to move to 1B/DH. I still want that to happen, but at what cost? We can find a plus D 3Bman for min wage. We need something from Arenado on offense to bring his value to the plus side. We could just play Campbell at 3B, or even Rafaela or Grissom/Mayer/Story.Romy/DHam. All would be better than Devers and not cost a penny or prospect. Signs and signals are nice, but we don't have to pay $15M x 3 for a very good defensive 3Bman. Arenado is the RHB fix. He's been worse than Yoshida vs LHPs for 2 years. I suppose we could use Yoshida in LF, so Arenado's bat replaces Rafaela's, as Duran moves to CF and Ref platoons with Abreu in RF, but then we send a signal that LF & RF defense is not a concern. This is the only way I see Arenado's bat adding value to the current line-up. He should hit better than Rafaela vs LHPs and RHPs.

No. You are assuming he does not continue his decline, as he gets even older. He may have been worth $16M in 2024, according to fWAR, but fWAR is not a predictor of the future. (I think he was actually a 3 fWAR and like 2.5 bWAR.) I don't think he continues to hit even at his recent rates, and his D may decline, too. I guess, if he gives us 2.5> 2.0> 1.5 of even 2.2> 1.7> 1.2 might be worth $15M a year, but not alsso giving up Fitts, IMO. Thanks for at least trying to explain why he has that much value. Anyone know what BTV has his value at minus his pay hit.

I'm not super high on Fitts, but with the state of our pitching farm history, I think I'd rather pay $5M more and keep Fitts. Give them Castro or Jordan. Throw in Gambrell, but again, not if we have to pay more than $10M x 3. They should give us a prospect at $15M x 3. Can you explain to me, why Arendao is worth giving a prospect for at $15M x 3?

These are some possibilities, too: 1. Story stays healthy into June and is playing excellent defense and hitting over .740. Dham & Romy or Grissom are holding down the 2B job, very well. Their defense is a net plus, and DHam is hitting .750 v RHPs and Romy .800 v LHPs. Maybe that keeps Mayer and Campbell from being added to the infiled, unless we are thinking 3B. 2. An OF of Duran & Ref in LF, Rafaela & Duran in CF and Abreu & Rafaela in RF is doing as well as they did in 2024, or better. The need for Anthony or Campbell in the OF is not present. Now, we may decide that even if those positions are doing okay or better, a prospect addition could provide an even better result. I'm not against that idea, despite the old adage, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." How much we want to prolong the prospect additions to gain a year(s) or control may play into the chocies and timing of the choices, but we do have some decent hopes at 2B, SS and OF without counting on the kids.

1. Rafaela cannot hits as well as DHam vs RHPs and Romy vs LHPs, and both of them seem like plusses on D at 2B. 2. Grissom will be given a chance to redeem himself, even if he has to first prove himself in ST'ing and or AAA, first. 3, Rafaela is a much better defensive OF'er than Campbell, and Anthony is about to put a squeeze on the OF, soon, as well. I'm not writing off the idea. I'd like to see how Campbell plays 2B defense, first.

fWAR adds (or subtracts) positional value, and so, DH's get dinged, even if they hit well. Papi's highest fWARs were... 6.3 in 2007 5.3 in '06 5.3 in '05 4.6 in his last season His "positional values," those years were between -15 and -17. I'm not sure what his WAR would be, if he had just a 0 positional value. Yoshida is a plus hitter, but his awful LF D, which forces him to be a DH only player really does hurt the team by about as much as his bat helps.

They seem more interested in lowering their budget, as they are shopping Suzuki.

Arenado is not an upgrade vs LHPs. 2023-2024 OPS v LHPs: .886 Refsnyder (290 PAs) .879 Romy (130) .794 Casas (158) Some want to trade him, if we get Arenado or Bregman. .749 Devers (412) .721 Wong (260) .704 Bregman (397) Not much better than Yoshida v L .680 Duran (279) .669 Yoshida (better than Arenado & Bregman vs RHPs) .654 Arenado (299) .619 Grissom (24) .610 Rafaela (179) .573 Story (58) .539 DHam (53) Should not start vs LHPs .514 Abreu (77) Should not start vs LHPs