moonslav59

You've scared the living bejesus out of me on Arenado! On Bregman, he just does not seem like "that guy" we could say, this is the guy we really want and need and let's get him, even if we grossly over pay. He and Scott might be the best two guys left on the FA market, in terms of helping us the most in 2025, but that should not be the reason we sign Bregman.

One could argue his 2023 was the best of his career. Some of his earlier years were not the apple of my eye, but yes, having someone like him through hi prime would have been nice. He started in the bigs at age 28 and pitched very little. He went to Japan at ages 30-31. 2018 was his first full season in MLB. He had 6 seasons with over 40 IP: here they are: '16 42 IP 4.54 ERA/1.22 WHIP '19 56 IP 3.40/1.02 '21 43 IP 3.95/1.27 '22 56 IP 3.05/0.98 '23 51 IP 1.05/1.03 '24 44 IP 3.45/1.23 It looks like getting him one year earlier would have been the best we could have hoped for.

If we don't add anymore outside contracts, it might make sense to sign extensions, now, that include 2025, so the tax number would be lower for all years. Take Crochet: he might make $3-4M in arb for 2025 (MLBTR has $3M) and more in his last year (maybe $10-20M.) Let's say he would make $24M/2 for 2025 and 2026, and an extension was agreed upon at $28M x 4 years from 2027-2030 ($112/4). Our AAV could be $4M, $20M then $28M for the next 4 years, if it's structure to begin in 2027. Or, we could start it in 2025 as a contract of $136/6 (the same as the other two combined,) but the AAV would be evened out (More in 2025 & 2026, but less afterwards.) Te tax hit would be $22.7 x 6. If we stay under with that total, we could, in theory, have more to spend starting in 2027.

Unless he can catch 60-70% of the games, I'm not sure it works, especially if we ever get a real 3Bman and push Devers to 1B/DH. If we can somehow include Yoshida in a trade for Contreras or Arenado & Contreras, I'm listening.

To be honest, I know we have zero chance, so as long as the Yanks don't get him, I don't really care. It would be nice, if players started wanting to play for the Sox, again. I think we still are held in high regard by some Latin American nations, but I'm not even sure that is true anymore.

He may end up doing okay as a hitter, over the next 3 years... not the power you normally want from a DH, but he likely is worth more than zero. The issue is, we have at least 4 guys best suited to DH: Yoshida, Refsnyder, Casas and Devers. Our corner IF defense sucks, and our catcher defense sucks. We can win it all without fixing those positions, but it makes it harder. To me, it is not our top priority: getting a lockdown closer is. Catcher defense is probably my number two, RHB #3 and 3B defense #4. 1B defense might be #6 behind adding another RP'er. Getting Bregman or Arenado checks two bowes out of our top 4 needs. The cost of Bregman and Arenado are too high, and I'm not so sure their bats totally fill the need of a RHB with some power, but I think Fenway would treat bth very nicely. If the idea is to use the money we have left to extend Crochet and or a top prospect or two and not on Bregman or Arenado, I could see the reasoning for avoiding both. Maybe there is another option, via trade, that works better. I still think we will trade Abreu as a way to "balance" the line-up.

Three years in a row, we went into the season knowing this, and just letting it continue. We did and still do have other areas of need and higher need, and the Yoshida signing and his inability to play LF really complicates any plan to keep Casas and Devers in the line-up along with Yoshida, without keeping Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B. I'd hate to see Yoshida bak in LF, even on a platoon with Ref or Duran, who would play CF, when not in LF, but keeping Devers at 3B is worse, IMO.

I we can include Yoshida in the deal, even if we pay 50-75% of his remaining contract, I'd do everything I can to make a deal happen. I do NOT make this deal, unless Arenado plays FT 3B. I'm not sure STL wants Yoshida, since the reason they are trading Arenado is to dump salary not exchange ones. However, there was talk they'd consider paying part of his deal, so taking on part of Yoshida's deal might be possible. How much they take on is likely tied to who we give back. While Rafaela's $48M/7 remaining contract is not much, the Sox might like to shed the $6.25M tax line hit by including him in the deal. Is that enough? Rafaela and Yoshida (plus $10M a year off his $18M deal) for Arenado. Word is the actual cost of Arenado, after the COL payments and deferments, is about $60M/3. Right now, we owe $54M/3 on Yoshida, so this deal would cost us about $90M/3 for Arenado minus the cost of Rafaela's $48M/7.

The thing is, Casas is just plain awful on D. It's really not hard to be better. If Devers turns out to be about the same, we just let them share time at DH and 1B. If Devers turns out worse, we just DH Devers and play Casas at 1B, unless he needs a day off.

It doesn't matter if he's better or worse than Slaten or Chapman, only that he fills a need and is better than the guy he replaces. I'm thinking AJ will likely be better than half the guys in our 8 man pen. Maybe not Chapman, Slaten and possibly Hendriks and Whitlock, when healthy.

Okay, the Willson idea was a bad one. What other team has a decent catcher they can trade away?

The penny pinching is something that would worry a guy like Sasaki, in terms of feeling how committed a team is to winning.

I could be wrong, but my gut says Devers would be better, after an adjustment period.

I think the extra year matters to JH & Co, and I can see the reasoning for a team looking to save pennies.

He's not the closer we need, but the more decent set-up guys, the better. He's better than Wilson or whoever will be out 8th guy.

He's not a bad lefty.

It would be hard for him to be worse than Casas, except he's shorter. He's not bad with his glove and quickness. His major issue is arm accuracy. If Casas is better, then yes, he DHs FT.

I doubt we bring in a 3B, too. The article I read on Cora about Yoshida siad... "meaning he will likely only see very limited time in the outfield, if any at all; Cora has emphasized that Yoshida's role will remain primarily as a DH going forward"

Cora has said he will be "primarily" the DH in 2025. Where is he "secondary?"

What might you give?

I'm not quite there, yet, but if it is, then that means no Anthony, Campbell or Mayer, at least until they gain a year, but you keep talking about Campbell at 2B. I'd say, if we sign Scott, we can be close to being a serious contender. Maybe a trade for a real catcher could get us to that spot.

And I totally agree, unless we move Devers to 1B or DH- your favorite topic. 😝

SFG signs Verlander

STL is looking to shed payroll and has a very good young catcher named Ivan Herrera, who has not even reached his arb years, yet. How about a trade for Willson Contreras, who is owed $18M x 3 ($17.5 lux tax hit?) He's a good RHB (.380 OBP in '24 & .355 over last 4 seasons, along with a .460 SLG.) Over the last 4 seasons, he has 28 HRs per 650 PAs. What would it take to get him? I'm sure they'd ask for Mayer, but maybe an Abreu, Cespedes and Fitts might start the talks. Would you give Abreu, Arias and Dobbins?

How can we ever let a team like the CWS swoop in and sign Bobby Dee out from under our noses? 🤣