moonslav59

I'm positive he could have been traded for at least a decent single-A prospect. The money "saved" could have or could not have been spent more wisely, but anyone you get for under $13M is a gamble. In hindsight, trading Buch and signing Fister and Hill looks to be much better right now, but I was sick and tired of praying for Buch to finally put some quantity (IP) with quality in the same year. It was not a no-brainer to pass on his option. As you pointed out, had we kept him there was still a chance...(yeah right)... but I think it was a bad choice to keep him around- not to take the option.

Buch's top quality has been near off-the-charts good. That was the gamble that (so far) has been lost. I've mentioned this before, and maybe this isn't the best stat or sample size IP to demonstrate greatness. It's cherry-picked, but still real. Since 1971 (45 years), 6,127 times a SP'er has reached 80 or more IP in a given season. Here's where Buch's best seasons rank out of 6,127: ERA- 3) Pedro 35 (2000) 7) Buchholz 42 (2013) 8) Pedro 42 (1999) 40) Buchholz 54 (2010) 699) Buchholz 77 (2015) 1090) Buchholz 82 (2011) So, in summary, using this cherry-picked group of 6127 instances of great pitching stretches, Buch has 2 in the top 40 That's like top 1/2 percent! He's also had 3 top performances out of 699 (top 11%) and 4 out of the top 1090 (top 18%)--all since 2010. That's 4 awesome stretches in the 6 years (2010-2015) prior to the extension being offered. That's about as top quality as you can get. With Buch, it's almost always been about quantity. Now, one can argue quantity AND quality, because theo nly two seasons Buch pitched over 28 startsand 170 IP were 2012 and 2014--the only two years not listed on my chart. So, last 6 years... Basically 4 of the best half seasons of pitching since 1971 (top 18%) and the only two full seasons were blah (107 and 133 ERA-).

I guess, but it was his only full season since 2009. BR has Buch's 2016 WAR at 2.7 and Anderson's at 1.5. The park factor, DH-no DH, strength of offenses faced plays a role in comparing numbers. Fangraphs has... .... Buch Andrsn WAR 3.2 1.7 xFIP 3.30 3.51 ERA- 77 99 xFIP- 82 91 Yes, Anderson beat Buch in GS (+13) and IP (+100) soundly, but I sure wish we had Buch's 2015 eighteen starts to close out 2016.

Don't know, but they obviously felt okay with paying him $15M with a worse injury history than Buch and less upside past performance record. My point is only to say, that some one like the Dodgers would have gladly traded a decent prospect for Buch at $13M last winter. The giving of the option was a "No Brainer". The not trading him was the ONLY mistake made--both in foresight and in hindsight.

It wasn't over 6 games. It was what they've seen over years of watching Swihart through the system, including his time with the big club last year, in ST'ing and those 6 games. If this is the case, and they've felt for a while that Swihart wouldn't/shouldn't be catching long-term (if that's what you're saying), then it would have been wise to trade him when his value was stratospheric. He could have been a primary piece in a trade for a starting pitcher last winter, and Hanigan/Leon could have managed behind the plate for a month or two until Vazquez was ready...but instead they put Swihart out there for a handful of games, demoted him, and converted him into a left fielder of questionable offensive value, where he promptly got hurt running into a wall. Maybe the team's opinion of Swihart wasn't changed by 6 games, but this smacks of poor planning nonetheless. Preaching to the choir. I've been suggesting trade packages led by Swihart, not because I don't value him, but because his value to us as a LF'er (3B/1b whatever) and eventual part-time/back-up catcher is less than his value to another team willing to look beyond his current defensive shortcomings as a catcher and plug him right in there (once he's off the DL). If you look aat the state of catching in MLB today, not only do some good teams have weak defensive catchers, they also lack in ofense. At least Swihart should give them one part now with hopes the defensive part comes along quickly. Almsot all my winter trade suggestions involved some combination of Swihart, Devers, Margot, Guerra, Owens and Johnson for an ace or possible soon to be ace. (Note: that was before some of these guys saw their stock decline a bit.)

It wasn't over 6 games. It was what they've seen over years of watching Swihart through the system, including his time with the big club last year, in ST'ing and those 6 games.

I didn't mean to imply you didn't understand what a hot streak looks like, and for all we know, that is probably what we're seeing with Leon right now- not some new-found skill set or approach. I'm all for riding the hot bat as long as it takes us. Remember, Middy took it for over a half season. I'm hoping Shaw isn't hitting a wall either. I tend to not get too hyped over streaks like Leon's, and Shaw's earlier, and Holt's last April, but I also don't get down on guys like JBJ- even with a much larger sample size than Shaw, Holt and Leon as much either

Buch "lost it" at age 23 (2008 69 ERA+). Buch "lost it" at age 27 (2012 92 ERA+) Buch "lost it" at 29 (2014 75 ERA+) I'm not surprised he "lost it" at age 32. I'm more surprised that people are surprised. That being said, Buch's career has been a yo-yo, if ever there was one, and those that are writing him off as toast are forgetting the he had two of the greatest ERA+ seasons (or half seasons) in the last 45 years (2010s' 187 ERA+ and 2013's 237 ERA+). He's also had some decent seasons and half seasons scattered in between the horrible and the great (2009"s 111 ERA+, 2011's 124 ERA+ and 2015's 130 ERA+). Teams take chances on injury prone pitchers who have never come close to what Buch has shown he can do time and time again. Take Brett Anderson as an example. He's started over 19 games just twice in 7 seasons. Before last year's 3.69 ERA, he's been a yo-yo similar to Buch. Every odd year he had an ERA over 4.00, and every even year, he had an ERA below 2.91. He's never had an ERA+ above 153 (see Buch's 187 and 237). Yeah, he's been a little more consistent with his ERA+ with 5 of 7 seasons above 100 to Buch's 5 out of 9, but change the number to 108 and Anderson has been over 108 just 3 of 7 seasons, while Buch has been 5 of 9. Games started: Anderson 112 in 7 seasons (16 per season) Buchholz 187 in 9 seasons (21 per season) IP Anderson 674 in 7 seasons (96 IP/season) Buchholz 1086 in 9 seasons (121 IP/season) The Dodgers are paying Anderson $15.8M this year, and he has yet to pitch an inning for them in 2016. He made $10M last year, but he did give them 31 starts- something Buch hasn't done in a while. Prior to 2015, however, Anderson had 19, 13, 6, 5 and 8 starts. Talk about unreliable pitchers getting big money for squat; it happens more often than you know.

They really need to just end all this and have a international draft already. What if they did the draft like the NBA? Mix both together in one mega draft. Maybe add 8-10 rounds to the current draft.

MLBTR is suggesting Aaron Wilkerson might get the next chance to crack the rotation.He has allowed just 69 hits with 25 walks and 102 strikeouts. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of his 16 starts. In 10 of those 12, he’s allowed one run or less.

I think several GMs would have started Pablo. Couldn't an argument be made that Vaz whiffed himself out of his 25 man roster spot? We have a lot of youth on this team. I don't recall seeing more youth on a winning Sox team since 1975.

I totally agree. Vaz will get to play more often at AAA. Vaz may find his groove at the plate. Hanigan should not be judged on such a small sample size that included trying to catch a freaky knuckler.

MLBTR has an interesting piece on some possible "under the radar" trade candidates, and I'm wondering if we may be able to strike gold on a rental without parting with anything too valuable. Here's a name that caught my eye: Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Rockies — The veteran Colorado lefty was off to an abysmal start and is owed a hefty $12.5MM before hitting the open market. But he has been quite effective since returning to the rotation in mid June: over his last five outings, including a four-inning relief appearance, De La Rosa has allowed just six earned runs on 19 hits over 28 frames. He has surrendered 13 free passes against only 19 punch-outs, but De La Rosa has drawn plenty of trade interest in the past and the Rox may be ready to move on. Teams in need of rotation depth could take a look. The money may scare many teams away, but he might be a nice get.

JF said the other night that Buch still has "his stuff" and that he's "just not placing it in the right place". I'd be more surprised if Buch never puts together another nice stretch of at least a half season before he calls it quits. The problem is, who knows when he may find his groove again. (Certainly, the chance he never does again is significant.)

b-i-n-g-o!

John Farrell (probably with DD's input) chose Shaw over Pablo. That's not a common choice made by any manager, and clearly shows JF is willing to play the younger player over the expensive vet.

In hindsight, yeah- end of discussion, but at the time of making the choice on the option, there's no way saying no vs saying yes then trading him was the right choice, and certainly was far from "end of discussion" merit in foresight.

I don't think the choice is always about who is better or who the manager likes more. It's about roster construction and depth. If we kept Vazquez on the 25 man roster, we'd have lost Hanigan on the depth chart. You may not value that all that much, and it's hard to argue that point based on Hanigan's 2016 performance, but Hanigan doesn't have to be Wright's caddy-catcher. Leon did fine with Wright, so put Hanigan in against lefty starters only.

So, you don't want at least a decent single-A prospect for free?

Many SP'ers signed hefty contracts with recent and/or long standing injury histories. Like I said, I'd have settled on a good single - A prospect.

But, you know, even weak hitters look like stars when their on a hot streak. As far as I know, Leon has never had a sustained stretch of good offense, so with me, I'm with holding judgment. I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but a 45 PA sample size is really rather tiny.

Man O Man this kid keeps on hitting like a freakaziod! It's still a sample size of less than 50 PAs, but still...

I'm a big believer in Swihart too, but I've been saying for a long time- his value to a team in need of a good catcher (about 70% of MLB teams these days) is worth more than his value to us. If that's not a major piece of a foundation for a trade, I don't know what is.

Let's hope so, but as you pointed out, our pen may need a lot of work. Good thing RP'ers are plentiful around the deadline.

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play." It's kind of how I feel about playing the game of high stakes free agent signing.