moonslav59

...and within tougher rules for winning and richer teams.

Right?

Maybe true.

Maybe 2 rings and eight 3rd or 4th place finishes.

I didn't mean it as derogatory. Yes, I view Manny, Lackey, Schilling, CC, HanRam and Panda as "big splash" too.

I wasn't the only one, but I was 16, and I cried. I kept score of each game. The Ed Armbrister call irked me to no end. Bucky Effin Dent. Buckner. 2003. I said for years, I'd take 10 last place finishes for one ring, and I meant it. I don't feel the same now, but I think that sentiment is still strong.

Hard to imagine that if this really was factual, it wouldn't have been reported everywhere and dissected to death. All I heard was a rumor that his agent said he "might" retire rather than play for the minimum. That's how I remember it. No mention of a 100% ultimatum.

The Sox have fast-tracked players in the past. Fred Lynn spent 53 games in AA and was promoted to AAA the next year with a September call up that same year. He never went back...just 678 minor league PAs total. Bogey and Betts both moved through the farm quickly, but Bogey did get 378 minor league games under his belt before being rushed into 3B duty in 2013. Betts played 299 games on the farm. Both of these guys started out in the Sox system with no college or organized ball before hand. Beni and Moncada had different backrounds. If you count Moncada's Cuban games, he ended up with 298 games under his belt before his hasty call-up this year. Beni played 151 games hop-skipping through the minors, including jumping from AA to MLB, but he also played 126 games at Arkansas, so again, we see over 275 games under a player's belt before a ML call-up. Although Devers has 313 games under his belt with the Sox, he started at age 17 and was still at A+ ball to end the 2016 season. I don't see the same tracking as others listed above. The fact that he struggled at his new level this year makes me think we may be more cautious with Devers, but if he starts out well, I think I side with MVP on this one.

There were other options at the time we traded for Kimbrel. Some went on to do fine, some ok, some sucked-- all were cheaper options than Kimbrel, at the time. From all indications, trading for Sale a year or two ago would have cost way more than it did recently, so it's hard to argue with the timing of that deal. I doubt we win a ring in 2015 or 2016 with an ace added, but someone like Bogey, Betts or JBj subtracted. The Kimbrel deal looks better now, despite his struggles, because of sky-rocketing RP'er salaries, but he wasn't the only solution to building up our pen. He was a big splash name, like Price and Sale...something DD seems to value highly.

It felt like 43, but you're right; 1971 to 2004 is 33. Still, I'll take the stretch with Ben over those 33 years or heartbreak any day of the week, and not just because of the ring in 2013, but because of the enormous hope I had in our long term future at the end of 2014.

So, let's trade Pom, Devers, Groome and Travis for Quintana and get even closer to winning three rings in a row.

Try going 43 years without a ring and get back to me.

That was miserable. No, miserable was not winning a ring in the first 40 some odd years I followed the Sox. We one one ring in those 4 years while building a farm that was ready to deliver several more over the next 7-10 years. That was heavenly... not misery.

I'm not miserable. I'm happy as a pig in s***. I've never seen anyone in so much denial about the future. It's not one prospect, by the way, it was over a dozen.

Either analogy is appropriate.

Plans to replenish the farm. That's a good one! Kinda like Trump's secret plan to defeat ISIS.

Let's take a closer look at just how much (estimated) money will be available in each of the next few winters (luxury tax dollars): After 2017: $25.5M Total ($13.5M Buch, $6.5M Young, $5.5M Moreland) Raises: $8.5M Total (Kimbrel $10.5M to $13M (option) & Sale $6.5M to $12.5M) Arb raises: $31M Total 3rd of 3: Pom ~$4.7M > $8.4M, Kelly ~$2.6M > $3.9M, Ross ~$1.8M > $2.8M 2nd of 3: Bogey ~$5.7M > $10.2MM, Thornburg $2.7M > $4.7M, Holt ~1.7M > $2.7M, Rutledge ~$800K >$1M & Workman $600K >$900K 1st of 3: Betts $550K>~$7M, Smith ~$550K>$5M, Wright ~$550K> $4M& Vaz $550K> $3M NET: Minus $14M (Nothing to spend on free agents to replace anyone we lose) Replace Moreland with Travis, Young with Swihart and Buch with Owens/Johnson. Assuming we reset the luxury tax this winter, and if we keep everyone, we'll be paying a tax on about $10-14M . Or, we could dump some salary. After 2018:~$50M Total ($22M HanRam, $13M Kimbrel, ~$8.4M Pom, ~$3.9M, Ross ~$2.8M) Raises: $1M (Sale $12.5M>$13.5M option) Arb Raises: +$30M Total (Bogey +$6.5M, Thornburg +$3M, Holt +$1M, Rutledge +$500K & Workman +$500K, Betts +$6.5M, Smith +$2.5M, Wright +2M$, Vaz +$1.5M, Erod +$2M, Swihart +$2M, Barnes +$1M, Elias +$500K & Hembree +$500K) We may have close to $20M extra here, but since we were over by $10M from the previous year, we could be at about $10M to spend on replacing a bunch of talent. Devers replaces HanRam and maybe Groome & Owens/Johnson can replace Kimbrel, but who knows. We lose Pablo and Porcello and others the following years, but arb raises will be very high.

Yes, and we both were big Ben supporters to the end. I hope we win 1-2 rings in the next 3-4 years, but I'm prepared to have some lean years afterwards. I realize I may be surprised, if DD is able to rebuild the farm in 3 years, but I see no evidence to believe it can or will happen. DD never did it before, and the times have gotten more difficult that ever before. That's a double whammy we have to overcome. I'm not crying over our situation. I'm not losing sleep with worry, but I find myself having to respond to those who want to look at our extended future through rose colored glasses.

I have never advocated keeping all these guys. I suggested countless trades with Margot, Guerra and Moncada in them. My point was that if this wasn't "gutting the farm" then no team has ever gutted the farm in the history of MLB.

Then I guess you should be bashing DD for signing Price to be our "ace".

It is what it is, but remember, when Theo built the 2004 championship team, in part by using dome of Dan D's prospects to get us Schilling, he kept the farm loaded. He could have gone farther to insure we'd be even more favored to win it all, but he kept a balance. Our farm still had HanRam, Lester, Youkilis, Papelbon, Anibal Sanchez, Shoppach, Delcarmen, David Murphy and more. He didn't leave three prospects. Theo could have traded more prospects than he did to get Beckett and Lowell for the 2007 ring. He kept his major prospect trades to one. We won in 2007, but still had these guys on the farm: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Masterson, Lowrie, B Moss, Reddick, Doubront, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden & D Bard. When Ben built a championship team in 2013, the farm was left loeaded. You don't have to go tot his extreme to win a ring. I love the Sale and Thornburg trades, but we've never won a ring by emptying or nearly emptying the farm before.

When you figure in the arb raises, some of which will be massive in their year 2 and 3 arbs, there may not be as much left over to spend on FAs as it looks. Also, the luxury tax numbers are based on average salary of each contract, but when certain players reach their option years, that cost goes up as well: Luxury cost to new option cost: 2018- Kimbrel $10.5M to $13M 2018- Sale $6.5M to $12.5M 2019- Sale $12.5M to $13.5M Then, the arb raises... 2018: 3rd of 3: Pom, Kelly, Ross 2nd of 3: Bogey, Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge & Workman 1st of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz 1st of 4: Erod, Swihart 2019: 3rd of 3: Bogey, Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge & Workman 2nd of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz 2nd of 4: Erod, Swihart 1st of 3: Barnes, Elias & Hembree 2020: 3rd of 3: Betts, Smith, Wright & Vaz 3rd of 4: Erod, Swihart 2nd of 3: Barnes, Elias & Hembree plus maybe Beni and others starting arbs.

In terms of the history of MLB prospect trade windows, it's hard to imagine any other GM unloading so many top prospects as DD has over the last 12-13 months. Maybe it's not a total gut, but it's about as close to it as I've ever seen. DD traded this: Mid-season Baseball America Rankings: #1 Moncada #15 Espinosa #39 Margot #87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade) #93 Kopech Highest soxprospects.com ranking: 1. Moncada 3. Espinoza 3. Margot 3. Cecchini 5. Kopech 6. Guerra 7. Basabe 10. Dubon 12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded) 12. Wendell Rijo 13. Logan Allen 13. Pat Light 14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers) 18. Basabe (the other one) 20. Carlos Asuaje 21. Victor Diaz 21. Jonathan Aro 27. Josh Pennington 30. Aaron Wilkerson 40. Jose Almonte And kept this: Devers Groome Travis

Good post. I do think there is a pretty wide spectrum on a couple points of debate: 1) Can a weak or strong farm on paper even have strong predictive power? 2) Can we rebuild the farm to a decent level under the new system in place? We hear a lot of, "we'll deal with the farm problem or replacing our stars when the time comes" with no specifics on how it can be done, except for vague assertions that Henry can open his wallet, or we have three years of draft picks to rebuild the farm. I know the flip side is equally vague. It's hard for us supporters of keeping a balance to prove Espi or Kopech or Basabe would be helpful from 4-9 years out. We all want the same thing, but we have different views of how out present and future might look like had we not done all these deals.

It's impossible to know, but when given the chance to cancel the trade, knowing Pom has an injury, I think he kept the deal intact, because of Pom's 2 more years of control- not so much for 2016. Hard to know. The whole situation was a mess. How could we cancel the trade when our second or third options were no longer available. For that reasonb, maybe DD still would keep the deal, but it's certainly more questionable under my hypothetical scenario. Too bas the CWS wouldn't make the same Sale deal they did make back in July.