moonslav59

Longhi's never been above A ball either. Why more confidence in him? He has worse numbers than Devers and has been a year older at each level. Plus, Devers plays 3B- a position of greater need than 1B.

I totally disagree. Wright has had fewer horrible starts than Pom and ERod. He's been amazingly consistent as a starter. I found the same thing with Wake years ago. All pitchers have times when they "lose it" or "don't have it". I don't see where knuckleballers have those times more often. Although they may have secondary pitches that can not be true fallback pitches, they tend to have good and bad days about the same rate as other pitchers...at least with Wake and Wright.

I think 2017-2018 was a big reason we pulled the trigger, but we needed a starter at the time. We had already started O'Sullivan 4 games in early May (6.75 ERA), Owens 3 starts at 5.11, Roenis Ellis once (15.88) In early July Buch had a 5.91 ERA in 13 starts, Kelly was at 8.46 ERA in 6 starts and even Price had an ERA over 4.60. We were willing to give up Espi due to the 2 more years of team control on Pom, but had we not gotten Pom, we were going to get somebody. Too bad we couldn't have made the Sale trade last July- maybe even subbing Espi for Kopech & Basabe or Kopech & Diaz.

I think it's the whole aversion to the knuckle ballers.

I know keeping pen depth has value, but I totally agree on Abad. If we can't trade him, then release him, if we lose the arb (or maybe even if we win). I'd give Hembree his roster spot- not Scott, since he HH out of options. 7 pen slots (assuming Smith starts out on the DL): Kimbrel Thornburg Kelly Ross Barnes Wright/Pom Hembree If ERod begins the year on the DL or in AAA, then Scott would be my #7 depending on how others look in ST'ing: Elias Workman Olmos (I believe out of options & not on 40 man roster) Martin Ysla Noe Ramirez Owens or Johnson

For what it's worth, FanGraphs Depth Charts project Moreland with a 2017 WAR of 0.7 in 525 plate appearances and Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 490 plate appearances. With all due respect, and I really respect you, you rely too much on WAR projections. WAR discriminates against 1Bmen. Moreland had the best UZR/150 as a 1Bman last year and still had a negative defense factor in WAR calculation. I know the ridiculous subtraction of defense from DH's is even worse, but having so much faith in WAR projections misses other factors in valuing players. If we can keep HanRam healthy, get him more PAs and keep his poor defense off 1B, Moreland's value is worth much more than whatever WAR he puts up.

It's not what Tobias earns, since he won't be on the 40 man roster, but the guy who replaces Buch will likely be a $500K player, so the difference is likely going to be $1M. That may not seem like much, but at the deadline, when trading for a player means we're only on the hook for 1/3 of a player's annual salary, having that extra $1M means the difference between being able to trade for a $9M annual salary player or a $12M player.

Both Wright and Pom will get ample opportunities to show their stuff and win or lose a rotation slot this year and next. April starts should be determined by who is the better starter and who is the better reliever and to a lesser extent, who has already proven he can pitch well in the AL and AL East and who has not. Wright is better on every single criteria used, even if by a slight margin on some. The only way the 6th starter will not get 20+ starts this year is if two thing both happen: 1) All 5 starters stay healthy enough to average 27 starts each. 2) All 5 starters do well enough to never need replacing. I seriously doubt number one happens. In Sox history, I think it's only happened twice since 2003. If number 2 happens and Wright is in the rotation, it would mean Wright is pitching well enough to not need to find out if Pom is better. Of course, the same could be said, if Wright starts out in the pen, but here's where past pen numbers tilt the balance of the decision to preferring Pom in the pen to start the season. Couple this with Pom's stamina questions, and it makes total sense to me to start Pom in the pen to minimize the chances he runs out of steam in September and October. Pom career 1st half /second half splits: 1st half: 3.20 (.636 OPS against) 2nd half: 4.60 (.755) Let's do our best to ease Pom into a successful starting rotation slot by season's end- not season's beginning.

I just wrote a long post showing a huge discrepancy between Sox and Padre home and away ERA & OPS against, inter league ERA & OPS against and numbers vs AL East and NL West, but it got erased when I clicked the "Post Quick Reply" button. Trust me: it matters a lot.

Starters vs AL East 2016: (Over 15 IP unless noted) TOR 1.53 Wright 2.49 Price 4.50 Porcello 5.40 ERod (0.00 Pom 1.1 IP in relief) NYY 2.05 Porcello 2.40 Wright 3.31 ERod 5.00 Pom (9IP) 7.89 Price BAL 2.76 Wright 3.13 Porcello 3.71 Price 3.92 ERod 22.50 Pom (2 IP in 1 GS) TBR 3.06 Pom 3.07 Porcello 4.15 Price 9.00 Wright (4 IP) 11.25 ERod (8 IP) Career: Wright 1.91 vs NYY (33) 2.19 vs TOR (25 IP) 2.45 vs BAL (22) 9.00 vs TBR in just 4 IP Doesn't it make more sense to want to see if these numbers can hold up? Why would anyone want to see if Pom can do better than what we already have? Pom's (some small sample sizes- some the same as Wright) vs AL East: 2.32 TBR (23 IP) 2.52 NYY (25) 4.15 TOR (9) 8.10 BAL (7)

But, why replace a known starter who has already shown what he can do in the AL East? Wright had a very similar first half as Pom, but he did it against the best division in MLB. He did against teams with a DH. He did it while pitching half his games in one of baseball's best hitter's park while Pom was doing against teams with no DH in one of baseball's best pitcher's park. I could see if we had a guy who was an unknown, then sure, give Pom a chance to prove what he can do, but Wright has already shown he can do it. He just needs to prove he can do it over a full season. What worries me about Pom is that even if he does great out of the gate, he may run out of steam and not be helpful for the playoffs. It will not be easy to try and rest him during the season, if he is doing very well. Wright shouldn't need rest. That's why starting with Wright makes more sense. If ERod is injured, then this argument is moot.

I have high hopes fo Pom as a starter, but I have very slightly higher hopes for Wright, and I think putting a knuckleballer in the rotation greatly aids the guy starting the game after him. Pom's history as a reliever vs Wright's history greatly unbalances the choice, in my opinion. Pom's durability and stamina also plays into the choice to start him off in the pen to limit his total IP over the season. However, I'm fine with any of the 2. The third guy will get his chances.

I would too, but I feel even stronger about what Wright's got. A healthy ERod is ahead of both, in my book.

He's a better fit than Smith in terms of what we needed and the numbers support the decision. Despite how good we all felt about HanRam's adjustment to 1B last year, he was still a negative defender when compared to the league norm. His injury history also begged the question: why not move him to DH? I actually think the Sox planned (the day we signed him) on moving him to DH once Papi retired. It just makes too much sense. Keeping his "head in the game" By playing him at 1B vs some or most LHPs (as Young DHs when HanRam does not) will also keep him sharp at 1B for when he needs to play there in NL parks. Seth Smith plays OF and plays it badly. We had little need for a bad defensive OF'er that would essentially be just a DH vs RHPs. Signing a 1B or 1B/OF type player was the obvious right choice. There were several other choices I'd put way ahead of Smith (B Moss or A Lind to name 2), but Moreland offered the defensive excellence at 1B and the hope of a decent bat vs RHPs that none of the others provided. wRC+ 2015-2016 combined vs RHPs 143 EE 141 Bautista 125 Trumbo 119 P Alvarez 117 A Lind & K Morales 106 Morrison 105 Moreland 105 C Carter 102 B Moss 96 T Shaw 92 Napoli wOBA .346 Alvarez .344 Lind .333 Moreland .331 Carter .324 Moss .323 Morrison .321 T Shaw .312 Napoli UZR/150 at 1B (35 with 750+ innings '15-'16): 3 Moreland +7.7 10 EE +4.1 20 Napoli -0.1 22 Lind -1.0 30 Morrison -3.1 33 Carter -5.1 35 Alvarez -26.4 If you lower the innings to 700: 1 T Shaw +15.2 (out of 42 qualified)

The three years differential happens to be the most crucial 3 years on the age curve dynamic. 32 to 35 is when most players show steady decline or drop off a cliff near 34-35-36 years old. Fangraphs has these numbers on Smith that clearly show he is in decline and already under his career norm for the last two years: Last 3 year trend (age 31-32-33). He turns 35 in Sept. wRC+: 131> 113> 110 (career 113) wOBA: .357> .331> .331 (career .343) Baseball Reference has this: OPS+: 134> 116> 108 (career 112) Since Smith has always had a "pitcher's" home field (OAK, SD, SEA) choosing stats that adjust for this all show a decline. Maybe moving to BAL will improve his OPS and SLG numbers, but I wouldn't expect and increase in any of the 3 stats I just provided. Moreland's numbers have been all over the map with some massive swings up and down. Choosing a 1 year decline to try and show his trend is downwards is not really fair. His age is also within the range of prime, so there should be no age-related downward projection either. Look, I wouldn't bet on Moreland equallng or bettering Smith in 2 of the 3 stats I used above in 2017, but I think there's a good chance he does, and as you pointed out, the defensive value Moreland brings to the Sox infield, and the steep decline in Smith's defense makes the Sox choice the right one. The money differential between trading Buc for Smith vs trading Buch for no cost added and signing Moreland instead is icing on the cake.

But, the exact same could and should be said about Wright and a healthy ERod. Since all 3 look deserving of a starting roll, to me, the deciding factor should then be who makes the better "swing man" of long relief/spot starter type? That answer to that question is barely debatable. It is clearly Pomeranz. I do not think saving face from the Espi-Pom trade is a significant factor in the decision. If they pick Pom, it will be because they think he's a better starter than Wright.

He's post prime and on a steep trend downwards. He might get a little uptick, but I don't think there's a good chance for a big year like 2014.

Yup, and certainly Smith could do much better than Moreland, but Smith turns 35 this season and has seen his OPS+ drop from his career high of 134 to 116 and 108 the last two years. Moreland turns 32 this season. His trend has been up and down with no clear direction. He had the same OPS+ as Smith in 2015 (116). It's not unreasonable to expect a big uptick from Moreland as he plays half his games in Fenway.

MLBTR reports... there would have been a higher loss had we signed EE than we thought. Money and the potential loss of amateur talent were key reasons the Red Sox didn’t seriously pursue Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. Getting under the luxury tax threshold will save the Red Sox money both now and in future seasons, particularly given the possibility that they could reset their threshold this season, thus limiting their penalties in the future. Also, the new CBA calls for teams that exceed the threshold and sign a player who declined a qualifying offer to forfeit their second- and fifth-round draft picks and portions of their international bonus pools.

I think you secretly liked Buch much more than his WAR and projected WAR suggested. I don't blame you. It's his contract year, and he still has the upside potential few others have. I think the Sox wanted HanRam at DH vs RHPs with Young vs LHPs. I think that's a good idea. Keep HR healthy and maybe avoid injury. I won't be surprised if Moreland hits as well as Smith this season.

They're moving Price to closer. LOL!

Yes, it's a game not a sport. Like throwing a frisbee or playing catch.

You could have had Buch for someone slightly better than the guy we got, if you would mind the extra money (over Gallardo). Gallardo is more reliable in terms of not getting hurt. I'd take Buch too, but I think Seth Smith was not a good fit for the Sox.

So then walking in the park is now a sport?

Well, 5-9 Mel Ott blasted over 500 HRs.