moonslav59

I'd fast track Benintendi & Moncada. Take our time with Espinosa and Devers.

What a shame how we dismantled that great group of players.

Hard to forget: we traded Fred Lynn for Rudi and Tanana.

We let up 7 hits and 8 walks in 4 and a third innings to start the game, but allowed only 3 runs!

Maybe by June or July, we may see Moncada and Benintendi in Portland. I'd also like to see Chavis get to Salem and maybe Portland by year's end. Maybe Ockimey and Basabe to Salem at some point this year. Dubon to Portland. Stanki up to Pawtucket?

Before the season started, many were pointing out all this team's weaknesses then projecting doom. I tried to show that the vast majority of teams, especially in the AL had way more weaknesses or "question marks" than we did. I thought our offense was pretty balanced, and so far the numbers are showing this to be the case. Thde whole "we can't handle 2 or more blackholes" is not materializing (so far). Players on the top 10 OPS teams with a .705+ OPS and 85+ PAs: 8 Pirates (all above .769) 8 Red Sox (.786 team OPS) 7 Mets 7 D'backs 6 Cards 6 Giants 6 Marlins 4 Cubs 3 Orioles

Tonight's line-up is the one I have suggested as the top 4: Betts-Bogey-Papi-Pedey (then HanRam 5th)...

I'm gonna try to get to Maine before the 4th, but it may be just afterwards. I can't stay long. I'll be gone by the 15th. On Shaw. This kid was my sleeper pick a few years back. I had high hopes for him. His minor league record was not impressive, so I rarely get my hopes up on guys with his AA and AAA numbers. I'm also not a big yahoo for small sample sizes, but I admit his sample size is getting big enough to start believing it could be legit.

On the BDC site, I campaigned for signing Headley over Pablo, but then again, I also said getting Valbuena would be better as well.

notin is one of the best posters you'll ever encounter. Welcome aboard!

Glad to see you here Crit. Maybe I'll see you in Maine around/after the 4th,

One of the biggest "what ifs" in recent Red Sox history is the idea that we could have traded Youk before his cliff dive and kept Beltre and/or VMart to play 3B and/or 1B.

Papi is living legend. Nobody has come closer to almost single-handedly carrying the Sox to championships. Many years ago, I started a thread on the old BDC site titled "Rumors of Papi's Demise Have Benn Greatly Exaggerated" and it took on a life of its own. Big Papi will always hold a big spot in my heart. I wish him the best, and yes, I'll hold out some hope that he may return in 2017.

I was being sarcastic. In one breath this poster was complaining about not trading AAA players, so we wouldn't finish in last place 2 years in a row, and then in the next breath was praising how we kept Shaw and gave him a chance to shine.

That's what Ben did and I'm critical of him for it. Yeah, maybe Ben should have traded Shaw to avoid the basement 2 years in a row.

I do share the concern, but I have faith in Betts as the season warms up. Team OBP by leadoff slot in 2016: 1) Cubs .471 10) Mets .362 20) Mariners .320 24) Red Sox .296

Sometimes it's nice to have some power in the 1 slot, especially late in games when behind and the bottom of the order is coming up. Note: Career OBP as leadoff hitter: .338 Betts .336 Ellsbury

I like to use larger sample sizes than 3-4 weeks. Here's a look at Red Sox OBP leaders from 2014-2016 combined: .362 Ortiz (Not batting 1st for obvious reasons) .346 Pedroia (should bat 2nd or 3rd or maybe 4th but not 1st) .343 Shaw (not a leadoff hitter) .343 Napoli (not here anymore) .342 Betts (BINGO!) .340 Holt (slumps as the season goes on) .332 Nava (not here anymore) .330 Hanigan (surprising, isn't it?) .330 Bogey (I bat him second due to .356 OBP from 15-16) 2015-2016 only: .367 Ortiz .357 Pedey .356 Bogey .349 Holt .343 Shaw .335 Betts .332 JBJ .330 Hanigan

I have read studies that show the minimal impact of various line-ups. That being said, I do think managers must try to make an impact, even if slight, to improve the odds of winning each game. All things being equal, I would do the lefty-righty thing. I never completely wrote off its advantages, but often times, a manager will use the lefty-righty theory to an extreme and place a clearly inferior hitter in front of a much better hitter (either overall, by L-R splits or individual pitcher-hitter splits) just to make the line-up look "balanced". I do not think the advantage you get late in games, when opposing managers bring in a lefty then a righty every batter makes up for the loss you may get innings 1 through 6, 7 or 8, if ever. Just the fact that each slot usually gets 20 to 30 more PAs over a season than the one below it, makes a big difference. That's why I keep Betts number 1. I don't buy the Pedey is best at number 2 mantra for several reasons, two of which are as follows: 1) He isn't as fast as many think he is. 2) He has actually had better success batting 3rd and 4th (combined) than 2nd over his career. I'd bat Bogey 2nd, since he lacks the slugging percentage to bat 3rd. This would be my template for a line-up that does not factor in individual splits vs that days pitcher, recent trends (hot streaks/slumps), injury factors and more... Vs RHP Vs LHPs 1) Betts Betts 2) Bogey Bogey 3) Ortiz Pedey (maybe eventually HanRam) 4) HanRam Ortiz (maybe HanRam if Papi slumps vs lefties) 5) Pedey HanRam 6) Shaw Shaw 7) JBJ Young 8) Holt JBJ 9) Vazquez Vazquez I do think the 3rd batter should be your best OPS guy.

It's only use is to compare catchers on the same team- pitcher by pitcher once significant sample sizes are met. That makes it extremely limited. My point being made was that "CERA related" (note emphasis on italics) are real and valuable. Many things great catchers do, are not and cannot be captured by statistics. Even pitch framing and blocking balls in the dirt cannot easily be quantified. There are some fans who believe that the pitcher calls all his pitches, because he has the ability to shake off a call or pitch what he wants to anyway, and while this may be technically true, many time a pitcher just follows the catcher's lead and only disagree or changes the called pitch when he feels a compelling reason to do so. It is my contention that catchers do most of the pitch-calling, and this has a huge impact on the game. The Jason Varitek example brings my point to light as countless anecdotal evidence over his career confirm the usefullness of having a catcher who does his homework and uses his intelligence to guide each pitcher to be the best he can be. To me, "CERA-related" involves all the intangibles involving a catcher's almost personal relationship with his staff. It is real, but it is not easily quanifiable. Comparing CERAs between catchers on different teams with different staffs and defenses behind the pitcher is useless, so in that sense, CERA alone is useless and "terrible" as you say, but the theory behind CERA is what I agree with: catchers make a difference in pitcher performance and ultimately their ERAs.

Good to see you here!

Porcello is surprising many Sox fans. I'm not going to pretend I saw this season start coming, but I never backed down from my position that I thought the contract extension was reasonable and that his big pay starts this year, so let's give him a chance. I'm not tooting my own horn. Posters from BDC know I've been wrong enough over the past few years to be too full of pride. Here are some of my major positions over the past few years: I hated the Crawford signing from day one, calling Carl a "glorified platoon player" that would "cripple our budget for years to come". I liked the Beckett extension. I was okay with the Lackey signing. I called the AGon trade to the Dodgers "perhaps the best Sox deal in my lifetime" or at least close to the trade for Pedro. I hated the Pablo and HanRam signings. I hated the Vic and Dempster signings, liked the Napoli signing and thought we "played it halfway" in the off-season prior to 2013. (I essentially gave us a very small chance of winning a ring in 2013.) I thought we had a much better chance to win a ring in 2012, 2014, and 2015 than 2013. I hated the Kimbrel deal, because I felt like Kimbrel's contract was virtually a free agent deal, so in a sense, we traded 4 prospects for ualcom qthe right to pay free agent money for just a closer. (I suggested several expanded trade offer including many of the players in the Kimbrel package along with Swihart and/or Devers for a top quality SP'er.) I thought we overpaid for Young. I thought the Carson Smith deal was understandable. I disliked the Iggy deal immensely, but understood that the Sox were never going to hand Iggy the FT SS job, so getting Peavy made some sense. I loved the salary dumps of 2014, but thought we should have gone all out for guys like ERod, Hembree and Kelly than Cespedes and Craig. Last winter, I projected Betts would compete for the best Sox offensive player of the year and defended him against those who wanted him demoted after last year's slow start. I am a big believer in the value of great defensive SS and Catching. I believe in CERA-related value, but the stat is almost always misused and taken out of context. I liked the overpay for Price and have always felt like the only way to improve a rotation is by building from the top not the middle or bottom. trying to upgrade your 5 slot to a 4 slot pitcher is nearly a total waste of effort. I have very firm beliefs on how line-ups should be constructed. Some theories I hold are that the whole lefty-righty-lefty line-up structure is over-rated, but I do think L-R splits are a big part in determining who should bat where and when. I don't adhere to the idea that players need to "fell comfortable" with one slot in the line-up and not jerked around", but I'm not for radical upheavals just for the sake of a 20 point OPS gain vs a RHP or LHP. I think you start your line-up building by putting your best all around hitter up 3rd (Ortiz vs RHPs and maybe HanRam or Pedey vs LHPs). I think closers are often over-rated. I was a big defender of Wakefield, even in his last days. I have also been on Wright's bandwagon for years. (I used to throw a knuckle ball in softball leagues.) I was glad we let Ellsbury, Damon, Pedro and many other aging free agents go. I projected a 98 win season this year. I did not project great seasons for Shaw (although he was my prospect sleeper pick several years ago), Holt and Pablo. I hope I'm wrong on these three guys, but I'm sticking with 98 wins. I hope this provides some background to those here that do not know me. I've never been afraid to admit mistakes and holding wrong positions, but there are a few things I can bee overly and firmly committed to. I've been known to get personal at times, but usually only after being baited or in an effort to expose bigotry or over-righteousness. I realize at times I sound like a know-it-all, but I do not mean to give that impression. I should say "I think..." more often, instead of making claims that sound like facts but are really opinions. I hope to do a better job at not taking the bait on this site. I hope to give some insightful contributions, and I hope this site fills the void I have felt since moving away from New England 12 years ago. I miss the Sox water cooler banter. Go SOX!

I think trading Swihart will be the best idea, but assuming we end up making some sort of deal to get a top quality pitcher, the one argument for keeping Swihart is evident by looking at the depth chart below: C: 3 - Vazquez, Swihart, Hanigan (2 yrs of control) 1B: 8 - HanRam, Shaw, Travis, Holt, Craig, Sandoval, Devers, Moncada 3B: 7 - Shaw, Sandoval, Holt, Marrero, Rutledge, Moncada, Devers OF: 8 - Betts, JBJ, Castillo, Young, Holt, Benintendi, Moncada, Basabe There is a risk trading Swihart, but I still think it's worth it, and I still think there are several GMs that would gladly overpay to take a chance on Blake.

It's nice to know we have so many future options at our near future everyday positions of greatest need. DH: Likely be filled by HanRam with Sandoval, Young, Shaw, Travis and others as possibilities going deeper into the future. 3B: Shaw may end up back at 1B eventually (see 1B) to make room for Devers or Moncada. (We also have some solid bench strength with Sandoval, Holt, Hernandez, Marrero & Rutledge.) Outside chance: Swihart. 1B: HanRam may saty here, if he improves his defense, but it's likely he will move to a near FT DH role next year. If Sandoval ever gets his act back together, he could wind up at 1B, but we also have Shaw and Travis if the near future and the possibility of Devers or Moncada ending up at 1B is real. Outside chance: Swihart. LF/RF: To me, Benintendi looks like he will rise quickly to fill this slot, but until then, we have Young, Castillo, Holt maybe someday Moncada. Outside shot: Swihart. Longer ways away: Basabe. To me, the sheer number of strong possibilities puts us in a position to be very confident we can fill all our near future everyday positional needs in house. We even have an excess that could be packaged to land a quality pitcher. Pitching is and will be our greatest need for quite some time.

Agreed.