moonslav59

Agreed. I think the sample sizes I used were the most recent 4 and most recent 7 seasons. Santana's overall history and his 2016 season clearly makes him the much better pitcher.

Imagine our top prospect list had we kept Margot, Guerra, Allen, Basabe, Espi and others! Imagine if Swihart wasn't forced into losing his prospect status! Maybe.... 1. Moncada 2. Swihart 3. Benintendi 4. Espinoza 5. Margot 6. Devers 7. Groome 8. Kopech 9. Guerra 10. Travis 11. Basabe 12. Hernandez 13. Basabe 14. Dubon 15. Ockimey (Edited)

I like Ross too, but he's going through a rough patch, and now might not be the time to thrust him into pressure situations. Last 28 days: 9 IP 11 H 3 BB 1.56 WHIP (not counting 1 HBP) 8 ER 8.00 ERA 4.07 BAbip might explain some of it. He also let up 6 of those 8 ERs in one game (0.1 IP) Since June 1st, he's let up 10 ERs, 13 Hits and 4 BBs in 12 IP.

Even if Espi goes on to have 5-7 great seasons with the Padres, it doesn't matter to you? I get the reasoning in saying the Beckett/Lowell for HanRam/Sanchez trade worked for us (and FLA), but I'm not sure if Pomeranz is going to be a significant part of us winning a ring like Beckett and Lowell were.

With only 71 games to go, it still amazes me that Papi is on pace for his best OPS year of his career. 1.091 2016 1.066 2007 1.049 2006 1.026 2012 1.001 2005 .983 2004 .961 2003 .959 2013 .953 2011 .913 2015 2003-2007 1.014 (3rd behind Bonds & Pujols) 2008-2011 .880 (22nd behind Youkilis & others) 2012-2016 .956 (3rd behind Trout & Miggy) His last 5 years are closer to his first 5 years with Boston than his middle 4 years in Boston. Some other Sox players having their best career years: JBJ .909 (.832 in a third of a season last year) Young .846 (.793 2nd best) Bogey .841 (.776 2nd best) Betts .849 (.820 2nd best) Holt .762 (.727 2nd best) Swihart .720 (.712 last year) Leon 1.133 (Blowing away his small sample size past) Pedey's having his best OPS year since 2011. Porcello is on his way to his best season ever. His ERA- is 78. His previous best seasons were 87 (2009), 89 (2014) and 107 (2013). His K-BB% is 15.6% which is over 5.6% better than his career number. Steven Wright is breaking out.

He's going to have to put up some pro-longed good numbers in AAA before that happens.

I totally get that, but unless my numbers were wrong, I had Santana pitching 37 or 47 more IP per season than Buch. That's not comparing a half season pitcher to a full season pitcher as many seem to be portraying the comparison. That's the point I was trying to make. Buch's 91 ERA- compared to Santana's 100 ERA- makes up some of the disparity in IP. Maybe it doesn't bring it as close as I made it out to be by saying it "nearly" evens them out. In hindsight, I wish I worded that differently.

I'd rather try Hembree or maybe even Barnes before Ross.

Remember in 2013, Koji was our 3rd or 4th choice as a closer. Let's hope the ending is the same as '13.

It does make me feel a little better about the trade, but I already viewed the trade as balancing one type of risk/reward vs another type of risk/reward. Maybe I believe in Espi more than I should. I see his upside as higher than what this analysis shows. I like Pomeranz and hope he works out. He's totally changing his environment going from a division of big/huge parks and no DH to the AL East under an immense spotlight.

soxprospects.com placed Groome in front of Kopech at #4. Ockimey jumped from #37 to #8. Check out the rest... http://soxprospects.com/index.html

We would be giving him money in 2016 ($13M) and 2017 ($13M), and we could be very tight on the luxury tax next winter. I like having nice SP'er depth, but I'd rather have higher quality in our 1 to 5 slots. Next year's rotation and starter depth looks like this right now: 1) Price 2) Porcello 3) Wright 4) Pomeranz 5) Recovering from injury 6) Trash 7) Trash 8) Crapshoot 9) Crapshoot 10) Trash (or needlessly rush a prospect by September?) Fixed that for you. I meant Kopech may be ready by September 2017. No no no, no more dabbling around with the Bastard Batallion and no more starting the clock on prospects better served by developing with time and patience. I've had enough of the illusion of depth. Bring in a 5th strong professional starter and I will be quite happy thank you. I want to acquire a 5th starter, but not a 4/5 slot type pitcher. We have seen enough of them let us down. I prefer a solid #2/3 slot starter instead.

I see Santana as a good 4 starter. He is better than anything we have below ERod, and he might end up being better than ERod over the next 2 years. Yes, he can pitch like a #3, but he may also pitch like a #5 or 6. I prefer acquiring a solid 2 or 3 in replacing our #5 starter. I'm willing to spend more than $13M a year or give up prospects/players like Swihart, Devers, Holt and maybe a mid-level prospect or two.

Maybe if Buch had taken roids, he'd have been stronger and more durable.

We would be giving him money in 2016 ($13M) and 2017 ($13M), and we could be very tight on the luxury tax next winter. I like having nice SP'er depth, but I'd rather have higher quality in our 1 to 5 slots. Next year's rotation and starter depth looks like this right now: 1) Price 2) Porcello 3) Wright 4) Pomeranz 5) ERod 6) Kelly 7) Elias 8) Owens 9) Johnson 10) Cuevas (Kopech by September?) I'd rather see us get a solid #2 or top #3 starter, which would make us look like this: 1) Price 2) ________ 3) Porcello 4) Wright 5) Pomeranz 6) ERod 7) Kelly 8) Elias 9) Owens 10) Johnson/Cuevas (Kopech by September?) Maybe if we pinch our pennies we can get a decent SP'er (via trade?), a couple RP'ers AND someone like Encarnacion.

Santana for Buch would be a plus for this year, assuming he does better than ERod or someone else gets hurt, but I'm looking for better than Santana for 2016 and 2017. The $13M to Santana might prohibit us from getting better.

Now that Espinoza has been dealth and Jason Groome signed, here's how soxprospects.com ranks our top prospects: http://www.soxprospects.com/index.html 1) Moncada 2) Benintendi 3) Devers 4) Groome 5) Kopech 6) Travis 7) Johnson 8) Ockimey (up from #37) 9) Basabe 10) Hernandez 11) Dubon 12) Chatham .... 20) Shaun Anderson ... 27) Bobby Dalbec 28) Mike Shawaryn

Exactly. They should be able to get a decent prospect and total salary relief. Maybe it's Buch and someone like Owens or Johnson.

lol

I think keeping all of our top prospects would have created such a bottleneck that some sort of trade would have had to be made, even if only to create roster space. I know many here must feel like I'm against trading prospects, because I was against the Kimbrel trade and the Pomeranz trade. It's funny, because I agreed with the prospects DD chose to trade for Kimbrel. Margot and Guerra were in a vast majority of my suggested prospect trades. My position was actually more radical than DD's, since I had suggested trading Margot, Guerra, Swihart and Devers (plus guys like Owens, Johnson, Marrero and others before their stock fell this year) over Margot, Guerra and Espinoza. I also was open to adding Holt or Kelly. I was looking for a huge mega deal, but I admit my suggestion might have been a pipe dream as I wanted someone like Sale, Gray, Kluber, Quintana or Salazar

The xFIP crowd thinks Price is doing just fine and has had some bad luck on the timing of his run support. The ERA- crowd (me included) feel he has not met expectations so far. Let's hope he sheds the whole poor playoff record mantra to even out this year's regular season blues.

Makes you wonder just how despicably Theo viewed Manny.

Santana has been way more reliable and consistent than Buch. I never even implied a otherwise. I never meant to imply IP and consistency is not important, but only that performance level has importance as well. Santana's ERA- and IP have been much more steady than Buch's... ...........IP/ERA- Year... SANT....... BUCH 2010 223/98 174/ 54 2011 229/86 83/ 82 2012 178/133 189/ 107 2013 211/80 108/ 42 2014 196/109 170/ 133 2015 108/99 113/ 77 2016 98/96 81/ 132 Clearly Buch has been all over the map with his ups and downs and missing time. I'd rather have Santana's record since 2010 than Buch's, but Buch does have 4 of the best 5 ERA- seasons. Buch has also had 2 of the worst three, and those two have been in the past 3 years. On IP, Santana blows Buch away. I realize that has a lot of value. He's been over 170 IP 5 out of the previous 6 seasons, while Buch has just three times. Buch's highest IP (189) was bested by Santana in 4 of the last 6 seasons, including 3 times by more than 20 IP. My point was meant to show that posters here seem to despise Buch, who makes $13M a year. Santana makes $13M a year as well, but is signed for that amount for 2 more years. Clearly, nobody here wants Buch for the next 2 years at $26M. How many here would sign Santana for $26M/2 this coming winter (assuming he doesn't get hurt or flop the second half?) If your answer is no, then the trade may not make sense, even with the gain we might get by replacing ERod with Santana to finish out the year. If your answer is yes, then the deal is a resounding no-brainer. I will add that the $13M luxury tax hit will lessen what we can spend elsewhere. I see Santana as a 4th starter or solid 5 slot starter...kinda like Dempster. I prefer to rebuild a staff from the top or near the top rather trying to rebuild from the bottom of near the bottom. Perhaps the added value of having Santana for the remainder of 2016 tilts the balance in favor of "yes". (That's assuming the trade rumor is valid.)

The two sample sizes I chose showed Santana with 37 IP per season more than Buch and 47 IP per season in the other. I went on to say that if you are calling Buch a half season pitcher, then adding 37 or 47 IP to that total does not make you a full season pitcher- it would be more like 3/4. Maybe my math was wrong, and if so, I apologize.