moonslav59

Don't hear many people talking about this, but how about Toronto's signing of JA Happ for $36M/3 last winter? The guy went 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.169 WHIP! Here's a look at the big named FA SP'er signings: Remember, most of these guys were expected to produce big time on the front end of their deals. Price $217M/7 w/opt out (17-9 3.99 in 230 IP) Greinke $206M/6 (13-7 4.37 in 174 IP) Cueto $130M/6 w/opt out (18-5 2.79 in 220 IP) Zimmerman $110M/5 (9-7 4.93 in 102 IP) Samardzjia $90M/5 (12-11 3.81 in 203 IP) Leake $80M/5 (9-12 4.69 in 177 IP) Wei-Chen $80M/5 w/opt out (5-5 4.96 in 123 IP) Kennedy$70M/5 w/opt out (11-11 3.68 in 196 IP) Kazmir $48M/3 w/opt out (10-6 4.56 in 136 IP) I'd say only Cueto looks like an unqualified success after one year.

I'll listen to anyone's offer for anyone. Give me greater return and I'll trade Betts, Bogey, and JBJ.

I'm still not sold that moving Swihart to left is a solution, but that's another argument. I'm not either. I feel his trade value as a catcher would be worth more than his value to us as a LF'er, 1Bman or DH. I think we may see Moncada in LF before all is said and done.

Would you trade JBJ, Moncada, Swihart, Shaw, Owens and Johnson for Quintana, Robertson & Frazier? We could then sign Beltran (1-2 years) to help out in LF and DH. Move Beni to CF. Maybe Devers will be ready after Frazier moves on after 2017. We'd also have 2 extra SP'ers to trade if needed: 1) Quintana 2) Porcello 3) Price 4) ERod 5) Wright 6) Buchholz 7) Pomeranz

Well, Price did improve as the season went on. At one point, I think he had the worst ERA in the league. Besides, I said, "Price should do better." I never said "will".

I doubt Price finishes in the top 6 or 7. My vote would go.... 1) Porcello 2) Kluber (close to tie with Porcello) 3) Verlander 4) Sale 5) Miller 6) Quintana 7) Tanaka 8) Happ 9) Britton 10) Price (maybe)

Good points...I fully expect Koji to be back next year and I don't think it's a given that Tazawa will definitely be gone. The only guy they can't re-sign is Ziegler, who will go to a team that has ST in Arizona. I wouldn't mind bringing Koji back, and he may take a little hometown discount out of loyalty and the desire to make the playoffs up to his retirement. As far as Janssen & Chapman go, why would two teams that are built to win now and for the foreseeable future, and have pretty much unlimited resources, let either of these guys walk? My guess is that it would have to be a crazy overpay, unless one or both of these guys "want" to leave. It's up to them, not their teams. Both are unrestricted FAs. Jansen could cost a comp pick though, so that might give the edge to LA. I agree on Melancon. Some guys just aren't cut out for Boston. He's supposedly one of them. I never bought into that theory. He did fine here. I don't think they'll spend big on middle relief, either. Certainly not anything close to the 4/32 that they offered Andrew Miller. I wish they had spent that on Miller back then. There are no "Millers" on the market this year. I agree that they will look at Beltran/Bautista if the EE numbers get past whatever value that they assign to him. My guess is that they will. I think they'll look sorter term (Beltran) or let Young, Pablo, Moncada, Shaw, Hernandez, Holt and others fight for the 3B/DH openings. I'm not betting that they move Swihart, but I have a feeling that they will make a pretty significant trade this offseason. I think there are only two players who they won't listen on (Betts/Pedroia). I'm not sure many GMs are calling about Pedey, but at his age, I'd listen.

Back before the trade and even a year before the Lackey trade, I suggested we extend Lackey and give him a signing bonus that would be paid out during his "minimum salary" year, so as to minimize the bad feelings. I think I suggested a 2 year extension worth $30M/2, but that would actually be paid out as $10M x 3 years. He ended up signing for $32M/2 with the Cubs 2 years later, so I think I was pretty close. I disliked the trade at the time as well. All I'm saying was that at the time, Lackey's 2 months of the 2014 season was useless to us, so we were essentially trading 1 year (2015- a year coming off a last place finish) for 4 years of Kelly and 4 years of Craig at a $62M luxury tax cost- a guy who had the 22nd best OPS from 2011 to 2013. At the time of the trade, one could see the reasoning behind the trade- like it or not. I did not like it, but it wasn't a horrible looking trade at the time. In hindsight, it is. The other factor to consider is that we could have signed Lester, lackey and Miller after we traded them.

I'm not for trading JBJ, but I'll listen to any offers. For all the reasons you mentioned, other GMs would give up a lot to get him. Trading JBJ for a better return is not a bad idea. Not many teams have 2 guys on the 25 man roster than can play CF very well and a guy like Young (Moncada/Swihart?) to move into LF.

I'm not trying to minimize the loss of Papi. The guy is a legend among legends. We do have some pretty darn good batters returning next year. Here's how they ranked out of the top 330 MLB players with 220+ PAs: 21) Betts .897 38) Ramirez .866 47) Young .850 (same as Trumbo, Beltran & Lucroy) 52) Leon .845 57) JBJ .835 (57- Beni would rank here is he had enough PAs .835) 69) Pedey .825 93) Bogey .802 That's 7 returning players (8 if you count Beni) with an OPS over .800! I can see having grave concerns about Leon, but we may see Swihart or Moncada come in over .800 next year.

That's assuming we replace Papi with a replacement level player. I would think some sort in-system combination of Young, Swihart, Pablo and Moncada could put up at least a 1.5 WAR from the DH slot.

I know this might be viewed as cherry-picking sample sizes, but with injuries to Wright and Pomeranz and a turn-around by Buchholz, I think these numbers show the upside potential of our 2017 rotation: 1st Half 2016 SP'er Rankings (50+ IP-143 pitchers) ERA- 6) Wright 61 8) Pomeranz 62 41) Porcello 83 67) Price 98 WHIP 14) Pomeranz 1.06 34) Porcello 1.17 38) Price 1.19 44) Wright 1.21 WAR 11) Price 2.6 15) Pomeranz 2.5 26) Wright 2.1 33) Porcello 1.9 2nd Half 2016 SP'er Rankings (40 IP- 135 pitchers) ERA- 6) Porcello 59 17) Buchholz 67 28) ERod 73 41) Price 81 88) Pomeranz 106 99) Wright 114 WHIP 1) Porcello 0.85 30) ERod 1.13 35) Buchholz 1.15 48) Price 1.22 83) Wright 1.34 96) Pomeranz 1.40 WAR 1) Porcello 3.4 15) Price 1.9 23) ERod 1.7 71) Buchholz 1.0 89) Wright 0.7 105) Pomeranz 0.4 If you average out their rankings over these 3 categories and assign the #1 starter label to all pitchers ranked 1-30, and #2 starter to 31-60 and so on, here's what you come up with: These starters pitched like a... #1 2nd half Porcello (3rd -avg ranking on 3 categories) #1 1st half Pomeranz (12th) #1 1st half Wright (25th) #1 1st half ERod (27th) #2 1st half Porcello (36th) #2 2nd half Price (35th) #2 1st half Price (39th) #2 2nd half Buchholz (41st) That's 4 different starters who pitched "like an ace" for half a season (Porcello, Wright, ERod and Pomeranz), one starter who pitched like a #2 for both halves (Price) and one starter who pitched like a #2 for one half (Buch). (Note: Porcello also pitched like a #2 for his other half season.) These numbers look very impressive and very promising as those who pitched like #2's were on the top end of the #2 spectrum. Price's 35th and 39th rankings would place him in the top 30 for the season overall (if you value WAR highly), here are those numbers: 137 SP'ers with 100+ IP: ERA- 13) Porcello 71 22) Wright 75 33) Pomeranz 79 51) Price 90 88) ERod 106 WHIP 6) Porcello 1.01 35) Pomeranz 1.19 40) Price 1.20 54) Wright 1.24 68 ERod 1.30 98) Buchholz 113 WAR 6) Porcello 5.2 13) Price 4.5 43) Pomeranz 2.9 48) Wright 2.8 97) ERod 1.2 130) Buchholz 0.3 Going by seasonal WAR, we have two #1's, two #2's, one #4 and one #5. 48) Wright 2.8 Going by ERA-, we have basically the same, but with Wright becomming a number 1 and Price dropping to a #2.

The only high impact FAs I can see the Sox pursuing are EE, Turner, Jansen, Chapman or Melancon. I can't see us getting more than one of these guys, if that, but I suppose we could go "all out" and get 2. I see Beltran as an option as well, but the guy is 39. At least his deal won't be a long one. If we move Moncada to LF, even if as a platoon with Young to start, then maybe that would mean we might trade JBJ or Beni. I'm not so sure HanRam is locked into 1B, but I can see the reasoning behind keeping him there. We could use Young at DH vs LHPs and some righties, and give HanRam a breather by playing him at DH vs the tough RH'd starter.

Our starters had the best second half ERA in MLB. We ended up with Buch starting due to injury issues with Pom and Wright, neither of which is terribly threatening to their 2017 projections. Look, I'm always for upgrading the rotation from the top, but we don't need 2 SP'ers. We could probably get by with none added, if we fix other high need areas- like the pen and 3B. Buch will be back for $13M. At worst, we could trade him. If you define a number one as a top 30 SP'er, then Porcello and Price are both number 1's. I'd love to get another one and make them a 2 and 3, but here are the numbers: Top 137 SP'ers in MLB (100+ IP) WAR 6) Porcello 5.5 13) Price 4.5 43) Pomeranz 2.9 48) Wright 2.8 (in just 24 starts!) ERA- 13) Porcello 71 22) Wright 75 33) Pomeranz 79 51) Price 90 These numbers show we have at least one number 1 and 3 number 2's, and it's not even counting ERod (or Buch). Out of 135 starters with 40+ IP in the second half of 2016, we have this.... WAR 1) Porcello 3.4 15) Price 1.9 23) ERod 1.7 71) Buch 1.0 (Wright ranked 26th in 1st half WAR and 6th in first half ERA-, so I'm not sure I'd write him off so easily--pun intended.)

If standing pat means we do absolutely nothing, then there's absolutely no way that will happen. We had a weak pen all year until September. We will be losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. To me, standing pat would mean at least replacing these three in kind. That has to be the minimum. We should be able to pick up 2 very good RP'ers and still be under the luxury tax. That means "the minimum" would also mean making some sort of move to get a DH or corner IF'er, even if just as a bridge to 2018 (Moncada/Devers/Travis). I can't imagine anything less than maybe signing Chapman, Jansen or Melancon plus a decent RP'er like Logan Boone, and then maybe trading for Tood Frazier. We could also trade for Robertson & Frazier and then sign Melancon. Is that going to make us close to even with this year's team? Of course, on paper, it doesn't make up for Papi, Uehara, Zeigler & Tazawa, but if you also count full seasons from Beni, Pomeranz, Carson Smith, Swihart, and maybe Moncada having an impact, then I think we'll maybe approach a similar record. Yes, we may easily have more injuries and/or down seasons, but there still is a lot to be hopeful about.

1) There are no top FA SP'er FAs. Price should do better. Porcello may decline, but he could still be very good. ERod, Pom, Wright and Buch could all have good years, but we might just need two of them to have good years.

I agree, and I agreed at the time, but obviously the Sox expected better from Kelly, and it wasn't far-fetched to think that way. I liked Kelly, but thought 1.3 years of Lackey was worth more.

I remember saying, "We played it halfway." We were afraid to go total rebuild like the Yanks did this year. We wanted to hit the refresh button but still be competitive the very next year. Lester for Cespy was the real head-scratcher to me. I'm glad we got Porcello for him, but it was weird.

I know I didn't, and I thought we could have done better too, but it wasn't all about a higher WAR for one year. Kelly had 4 years to Lackey's 1.3 years (really just one with us).

The optimist: We'll have Beni, Pomeranz and Wright for a full season- not half or less than half.. We'll have Carson Smith all year. Kelly, Barnes, Hembree and others may take a big step up. Pre-prime guys like Betts, Bogey, JBJ could get even better. Price should get better. There's a chance Moncada or someone else has a significant year. The Pessimist: Papi is irreplacable, and we just got ousted in the first round. Late season slumpings could be a sign of what to expect next year. Players coming off "career years" could drop off. We have other holes to fill besides Papi: Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. JF is not the best manager around.

I think we're looking at rosters as they currently are, but good point. If TOR loses EE and "Batts", then maybe we'd be faves over them. If BAL loses Weiters and others, so to with them.

I think he is just listing the 6 starters, and we can assume one will be the long relief/spot starter on the 25 man roster.

Put Scott in AAA and change Rodriguez to Hernandez and I think the roster, as is, would compete for the division lead, but they would not be favorites. If we add a top RP'er, a decent RP'er and a big bat or top starting pitcher, I think we could be faves again.

Plus, it's Hernandez not Rodriguez.

I'd get a short term bat that is very good. I'd get 2 very good RP'ers. I'd try to upgrade our rotation at the top, not the middle or bottom. That would be the one big move I'd try. All these ideas combined will cost us money and prospects through trade. Tough decisions will have to be made: Decide who goes- Moncada or Devers (I doubt we have the luxury to keep both.) Swihart, Vazquez or Leon (The demand for decent catchers is too high for us to keep 3.) We may have to part with a SP'er or Kopech plus Owens and Johnson as part of a big package to get an ace or strong #2 type SP'er. I know I've beaten the dead horse on EE, so I won't comment on that right now.