moonslav59

Yes. My bad.

I agree, and I meant the Colon reference to temper anyone's views that Buch is going to land us a Kopech or even a Basabe or something. My belief, and I could be wrong, is that as the winter wears on, and all available SP'ers are gone, some GM is going to think they are a solid SP'er away from seriously contending. They will know that Buch is no sure thing. They will know he could suck, but they will also know there's a pretty significant chance he can put togther a very good contract season. For that, they will overpay, but again, I'm not expecting to get back a Kopech or Soler or maybe even a Basabe type prospect.

We had a shortage of prospects from about 2009 to 2011. We had built it up by 2012, but none were ML ready. Don't expect another 2011 draft either. We had 4 first round picks and got Betts in the 5th round. How did we do in 2012 anyways? Coincidence? How many rings did we win in that period?

You mean when we start to suck, like the Yanks started to, we can have a fire sale too?

We may have an options crunch by opening day: Closer: Kimbrel RP2: Thornburg RP3: Kelly (later: Smith) RP4: Buchholz PR5: Pomeranz L RP6: Ross L RP7: Barnes RP8: (all out of options) Abad, Hembree, Elias We'll probably go with 7 RP'ers, so unless someone gets hurt, we may have to get creative or lose all 3. I like Hembree the best of the three, and since Thornburg is much better with lefties, maybe we won't need a LOOGY as much. Besides, we have lefties Buch & Ross in the pen as well. We also have some minor league bullpen depth: Scott, Martin, Workman, N Ramirez, Ysla and maybe Owens or Johnson.

Couldn't agree more, and I still think Uehara has "bat-missing stuff". I'd loved to have had him as our 3rd guy, but I think between Kelly and Buch, we'll be okay, until Smith is back and settled in.

Team control ends after.... (Luxury tax cost) 2017: Buch ($13.5M), Young $6.5M & Moreland $5.5M 2018: Kimbrel ($10.5M), Pomeranz (~$4.7M), Kelly (`$2.6M) & Ross (`$1.8M) --HanRam has a vesting $22M option based on 1050 PAs from 16-17 and passing a physical --Price has an opt out ($31M) 2019: Porcello ($20.6M), Ramirez ($22M see above option), Bogey ($???), Thornburg ($???), Holt ($???), Rutledge ($???) & Workman ($???) --Sandoval $17M option with $5M buyout 2020: Sandoval ($17M see above option), Betts, JBJ, Wright, Smith, Vazquez & Leon 2021: Pedey ($13.6M), ERod, Swihart, Barnes, Elias, Hembree

We shouldn't have to hand him away or pay part of his salary, but I'm not expecting a very good player or prospect. Bartolo Colon got $12.5M and cost no prospects or players. Buch is younger, has more upside and is in a "contract year", but he also has a significant downside or "floor". Maybe we can expect someone like a Victor Diaz and/or Josh Pennington replacement-like prospect in return.

I actually expect a top 5 finish in the Cy Young for Price.

Yes, he is a solid pitcher. He could be a big part of our success in the next 2 years. We may end up extending him for further successes.

It's almost impossible to subtract 15 promising prospects and not suffer to some degree. I know we will not suck. We can spend our way out of some of the holes in our future rosters, but having cost-controlled players like Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Swi/Vaz, Thornburg, Ross, Barnes, etc... really opens the door for big signings. I don't see us having a core of young players like this in 4-8 years. We might have Devers, Groome and a couple surprises, but nothing like this. It's going to be different in 4 years. We will suffer some effects from this trade in 4 years. It's my opinion, but I have no doubts.

Agreed. You have never rooted against Bogey, and both of us never saw the argument as Bogey vs Iggy. It was always Bogey & Iggy vs Bogey and Middy-Holt-Pablo....

The only trade I really have a problem with in hindsight is the Pomeranz trade. Great post cp. I can understand DD's thinking at the time. We needed a SP'er, and he had no idea Sale would fall in his lap the following winter. I hated the trade day one and still do. We traded Moncada and Kopech but the return was a strong addition which could lead to the best rotation in baseball. Agreed. Sale is a once in a generation opportunity. DD did what he should have done. Great move! The Margot, Guerra, Asuaje, Allen trade hurt a little but Margot was redundant and our outfield is fine in Betts/JBJ/Benintendi for years to come. Guerra looks to have been sold high on but Asuaje has taken a huge step forward but we gained a dominant late inning relief arm. My biggest beef was the combination of giving top prospects PLUS paying near FA money. Now, the money for a closer has gone through the roof, so that aspect is lessened, but still, there were other pen options at the time and a year or two earlier (not DD's fault there). I don't think we gave up anything that will come back to bite us in the ass for the Thornburg trade, none of those guys have high ceilings and I think we sold high on all of them. One of those guys could surprise, but it was a great deal not having to give up a top 5 or 6 prospect to get a true set-up man. Yes we traded away a ton of chips but we got back so much more elite proven talent. We don't need those prospects because this team is set for the next 3 years. We don't need prospects for 3 years, except for maybe Devers to 3B, but we have little long away top prospects to fill the gaps 4-8 years from now. It's hard to start building a farm now that will produce a top player in 3-4 years, when you're drafting low and restricted from signing international players. The top guys we still have in our system are in the only areas that may have openings in a couple years in Devers at 3B, Sam Travis at 1B (one sooner than the other). Yes, and Groome to replace Pom or Porcello. The Pomeranz trade still irks me, you traded away a potential ace for a guy to help you down the stretch but I was skeptical from day one he could because of his innings. Turns out I was right, not because I'm brilliant but because that seems to be a very predictive and re-occurring theme in the game of baseball. I hate to use the word Pedro, but I don't think there's been a pitcher his age ranked so highly. The sky is the limit with him. That was the worst trade of all. What DD didn't do was trade away Devers, Travis, Groome, Swihart, JBJ, Betts, Bogaerts, and Benintendi. Lets also not forget that by the time guys like Groome and Devers are in the majors and under team control the Sox will likely extended at least some one or two of Bogaerts, Betts, JBJ. So this "window" we talk about might be closer to 5-6 years than the 3 we are saying now. True, but part of the window might close in 2 years, when we lose Pom, Kimbrel & Kelly

So where, exactly, would the 36 year old and declining Bautista play? I'm not for getting him at all, but in theory, he'd DH vs RHPs. He'd be way better than Moreland at the plate. Bautista vs RHPs in 2016: .376 OBP and .834 OPS. We'd never sign a guy like him to platoon, so it's not happening. I agree, Young's our DH vs LHPs. HanRam and maybe a couple players needing a rest here and there will DH vs RHPs, and Moreland will play 1B vs RHPs only. HanRam vs LHPs and some RHPs.

Holt at 3B was part of the reason we went out and signed Pablo in the first place. I think between Rutledge (who still has some upside to me), Holt and Hernandez, I think we can stay competitive for a 15 day DL or maybe a little more. Maybe one of the three will take a step up in their game and be decent enough to not have to go outside the system, but as of right now, I'd say that if Pablo flops or gets seriously injured, we'll find a 3Bman somewhere (Frazier?)

I guess we see things pretty much the same and were only arguing semantics. Yes, gutting usually means leaving nothing or maybe 1, but I don't think it is too much of an exaggeration to see us go from the over abundance of promising prospects to just 2 left on the farm (Devers & Groome). We got rid of 18 guys that reached the top 27 in our system, 17 in the top 21 and 12 in the top 14, and kept two plus Beni in the bigs now. I'm glad we kept the better defensive 3Bman in Devers. I'm glad we kept Groome, but I'd have preferred Espi. I'm super glad we kept the killer B's. I'm on board with what DD did. I'm just not going to sugar coat the fact that our extended future is going to suffer for what DD did over the past 13 months.

I don't wish we add a big contract that will limit future signings and extensions of our great players of youth.

You can say that about any prospect, and I bet Basabe would have become a top 10 prospect within a year or two, even if Margot and Guerra hadn't been traded. After all, he was ranked 7th before this week's trades, so plug Margot back in, and he's 8th. (Guerra would not be ahead of him today.) I'm fine with throwing out Cecchini and TShaw and Escobar and the two guys ranked 30 and above, but that still leaves 15 guys with some sort of serious promise, at least at the time of the trades....4 with excellent hopes.

I never said Beni does not hit lefties well; I just said he hits RHPs better. Young does not have to "rest" JBJ and Beni on the same day. My point was that it makes sense to give Beni and JBJ their normal days rest when we face a lefty- not a righty. Not on the same day, of course, and Young would be the guy that should play LF vs LHPs. Now, that causes an issue at DH, since Moreland is much better vs LHPs than RHPs, so maybe we have to weigh the differential, and we could end up deciding that Young at DH vs LHPs is better than him in LF vs LHPs, especially when Beni needs a rest. If Swihart is on the 25 man roster at some point, he might be an option for giving an OF'er a rest. Pablo sucks vs LHPs. Hernandez and Holt have actually been slightly better vs LHPs than RHPs despite being lefties, but neither is good enough to be our DH or LF'er vs LHPs on days an OF'er needs a rest.

He cited Cots. I checked all the bonuses listed under Pedey and Sale. I saw nothing that could cause the difference, but maybe other sources showed some bonus missed by Cots. I don't make up numbers either, and Cots is probably the most respected source for salary information. Here's the Sale info from Cots: Chris Sale lhp 5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 options 5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 club options signed extension with Chicago White Sox 3/7/13 replaced 1 year/$0.6M deal signed 2/22/13 13:$0.85M, 14:$3.5M, 15:$6M, 16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout) 2019 option increases 1) by $2.5M to $16M with a Cy Young in 2013-18 or 2) by $1.5M to $15M with a second- or third-place finish in Cy Young vote in 2013-18 award bonuses, including $15,000 for All-Star selection acquired by Boston in trade from Chicago White Sox 12/6/16 Here's Pedey's: Dustin Pedroia 2b 8 years/$110M (2014-21) 8 years/$110M (2014-21) signed extension with Boston 7/24/13, replacing final year and option in previous contract $1M signing bonus 14:$12.5M, 15:$12.5M, 16:$13M, 17:$15M, 18:$16M, 19:$15M, 20:$13M, 21:$12M undisclosed amount of money to be deferred limited no-trade protection first $100M contract for a second baseman I'm trusting my source, but I realize it could be wrong, and then so could I.

By the way, stats are fun and I don't dismiss them, but Craig Kimbrel consistently threw 97-100 last year with a filthy hook, but seemed to get a "Welcome to the American League" strike zone from certain umpires. It definitely happens. My guess is that he'll adjust. I don't disagree, but that does not explain his 3 year decline with the SDP in the NL.

You really need to ask how I felt about the trade? Or, was the smiley face a sign of sarcastic. Look, I hated the trade (too many prospects + FA-like salary), but I never bad-mouthed Kimbrel. I expected a top 3 closer this year, and I still hated the trade. In light of the salaries closers are getting now, the trade looks better in that area, but his 4 year steady decline now has me concerned about him not returning to top 3 or 5 closer status again. Recently, I have said, I'm now okay with the trade, but I still think we should have rebuilt the pen in a different way 1-2 years ago. I never root against any Sox player. I love to be proven wrong when it means a Sox player does better than I expected. I've stuck by many, many, many Sox players, managers and GM much longer than the average fan, so I thinbk I've earned the right to be critical, when I see fit.

I see a pretty consistent evaluation by all of the above. They rarely mention 3B, speak of his average or improving defense at 1B, decent arm, works hard...

We could have gotten a good bat without losing a pick and with just a one year gamble: Beltran. Not signing him and then signing Moreland is a sign, to me, that we are not going large at DH this winter.

I'm happy with what we've done as well, but I have used the term "gutting", because it was appropriate. We've kept three top prospects (Beni, Devers & Groome) and maybe three tier two prospects (Travis, Dalbec & Chatham), but we've also traded over 15 prospects in the last 13 months, including 5 ranked in the top 93 nationally. I didn't use the term as a complaint but rather to counter the posters who are sugar-coating our extended future. It is what it is: a trade off of future talent and hope for a 2-3 year window. I'm not saying we cannot rebuild our farm at all, but we're not going to be able to spend like we did to get Moncada or draft guys like Beni and Groome for a while. Yes, we've had some success in later rounds, and I hope that continues, but we gave up a lot to get where we are right now. Sox prospects traded in the last year: Mid-season Baseball America Rankings: #1 Moncada #15 Espinosa #39 Margot #87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade) #93 Kopech Highest soxprospects.com ranking: 1. Moncada 3. Espinoza 3. Margot 3. Cecchini 5. Kopech 6. Guerra 7. Basabe 10. Dubon 12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded) 12. Wendell Rijo 13. Logan Allen 13. Pat Light 14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers) 18. Basabe (the other one) 20. Carlos Asuaje 21. Victor Diaz 21. Jonathan Aro 27. Josh Pennington 30. Aaron Wilkerson 40. Jose Almonte