Hosmer does seem like "the safest choice", but what does that tell you about the choices. The guy's OPS yo-yos 100 points nearly every season!
Plus, he'll want 4+ years and will likely get it. To me, that cancels out the "safest" argument.
I agree, I think we'll go as short as we can (1-2 years tops) in hopes that Chavis, Travis or Dalbec can win the job by 2019. However,
this option probably keeps us from getting a true difference maker to bat clean-up and extend our line-up.
Personally, I believed all along that we can win without being a top scoring offense, but looking at next year's roster, I think our biggest weakness is not having a big power bat who can also get on base at a decent rate. Sure, maybe Morrison will take a 1 year deal and repeat 2017's numbers. Maybe Moreland could hit like the first 3 months all year. Maybe Alonso or Duda will take a 1-2 year deal, but I would not sign Hosmer for 4+ years, just because he happens to be the "safest pick" in a group of mediocre 1Bmen.
Just because we have a big need, doesn't mean we have to sign the best of whoever is available that year. That looks to much like what we did with Pablo & HRam.