moonslav59

But it's going to be that way whether we made these trades this year or not. At some point a few years down the road our core of players is going to become eligible for free agency. I have no problem with trading the players behind them in the depth chart to win now because the same issues are going to exist in 3-4 years regardless of what we do today. The argument is that 3-4 years from now we would have had Dubon to replace Bogey, Moncada to replace Sandy or JBJ, Kopech to replace Porcello, Espi to replace Pomeranz, etc... It's hard to imagine us, in this new structure of the draft and Int/l signings to replenish the farm like Ben did, so that in 3-4 years, we can either replace the next set of stars or trade the prospects for established stars..

You make a strong case. If we keep winning more and more, our picks get lower and our spending allotment gets smaller. We've gone from having 10-12 very promising prospects to 3: Beni, Devers & Groome, and since Beni is slated to start LF next year, one could view it as having only 2 very promising prospects. Maybe someone from the lower ranks jumps ahead this year, and it's good that our two highest need areas 2-3 years from now are 3B and pitching, so having Devers and Groome left over looks well planned out, but you are right. It will be very hard to find and acquire the next Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espi, and maybe even Basabe and Dubon.

You mean Thornburg.

Our pitching staff had the highest second half WAR this year, and our starters had the best AL ERA in the second half of this year- that was without Wright and Sale!

I agree. I'm also expecting an improvement in offense at 3B. I might be the only one feeling that. I'm worried about injuries, as always, and this year (on offense), we didn't lose too much value to injury: Swihart, Young and Holt for a stretch and minor bang-ups here and there. I like our bench, as I did this year, but not really as a full season replacement player. Vaz and Swi at catcher are fine back-up to Leon and each other. 1B has Moreland with Holt or Travis in a crunch. 2B has Holt (his best position, IMO) 3B has Holt & Hernandez SS has Hernandez & Holt OF has only Young with Holt, Moreland and Swihart in a pinch.

Like I said- a hypothetical scenario that actually happened recently.

I've always been a firm believer in timing, timing is everything and there is a time and a place for both strategies. I agree. How many times does a guy like Sale come along that costs no MLB talent in return and a $6.5M luxury tax price tag? NEVER! DD saw the wisdom of going for the golden apple. Well done, DD!

Not a bad idea, if Henry is okay with going way over the limit. A smaller version might be to trade Buch for prospects once we know what we have for 4 & 5 starters. I'd try to trade Abad and Elias for far away prospects right now. I might trade Hembree, if he looks to be squeezed out of a 25 man roster slot. He's out of options.

Look at 2012-2015, plus I didn't say suck every single year we don't win, so one could widen the example given to 2010-2015 or 2010-2016 with only 2 out of 7 seasons with over 90 wins and just one ring.

Agreed- something Pedro Alvarez would not have given us, although if Pablo sucks, Pedro could play some third base until we found a non-pretender.

And in fairness to DD, Theo and company did much the same in 2004, sacrificing quite a lot of prospects to bring the title to Boston, and yet still could turn around 3 years later and introduce a team that was significantly homegrown (Ells, Pedey, Youk, Lester, Buchholz, etc). Flashback... Here are the soxprospects rankings of players from 2003 their list that were traded: 1) Freddy Sanchez for Jeff Suppan 2) Hanley Ramirez (& Anibel Sanchez) for Beckett & Lowell 3) Jorge de la Rosa (with Cassey Fossum & Brandon Lyon) for Schilling 5) Phil Dumatrait for Scott Williamson 6) Kelly Shoppach for Pedro Beato

The offense loses Ortiz, but it gains another full year (with experience) from Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, and - most importantly - Benintendi. We shall see if that helps offset the loss of Papi. Better wording might have been to say "...offset part of the loss of Papi".

I'm reposting this, because it really blows me away. The lack of hardly anyone signed beyond their prime years is amazing! I bolded any years over 32. Ages under team control 28-30 Sale 31-32 or 36 Price (opt out)> 33, 34, 35, 36 28-30 Porcello 24-28 ERod 28-30 Pomeranz 32- 35 Wright 33, 34, 35 32 Buchholz (Owens, Johnson, Groome) 29-30 Kimbrel 28-30 Thornburg 27-30 C Smith 29- 30 J Kelly 28- 29 R Ross 27- 31 Barnes (Elias, Abad, Hembree, Scott) 28-31 Leon 26-29 Vazquez 25- 29 Swihart 33-34 or 35 Ramirez 33, 34 & maybe 35 31 Moreland (Sam Tavis/Ockimey) 33-38 Pedroia 29-31 Holt 24-26 Bogaerts 24-29 Hernandez (Chatham) 30-32 or 33 Sandoval-option (Rafael Devers/Bobby Dalbec) 22-27 Benintendi 33 C Young 27-30 Bradley 24-27 Betts When you look at the few we have, none are for beyond 38, and only Pedey is beyond 36. If price opts out, only Wright and HanRam could go to age 35 depending on options and arb choices. I know it sucks losing so many prospects, but it's not like this is an old team with high need openings coming up in the next year or two.

I do not think Henry is willing to spend, spend, spend to no end. He probably really hates paying a hefty tax (up to 50% plus 12% for anything over $20M and under $40M) on every dollar going over the limit PLUS, now we lose revenue sharing by going over. The extra cost and loss of revenue could be enormous. For example, let's say we do or we don't reset this year, and next season's free agent class comes around- a much nicer one, I might add- and we decide we need a couple big named players that puts us over the limit by $40M. Example A (where we reset this year): we pay a 20% tax. That's $8M total. Example B (where we stayed over this year and are now at year 4: we pay a 50% tax of $20M plus a 12% tax on $20M ($2.4M) for a total of $22.4M. It's easy to explain away a $14.4M differential as pocket change for a guy like Henry, but $14.4M to any budget that is not limitless could bring us a very very nice free agent. I'm not sure how to compute the loss of revenue sharing, so there's that to add to the picture as well. I do not see us becoming the Dodgers of the East or the Yankees of the past.

I was speaking to a hypothetical choice: A) stay competitive every year but don't win another ring in my lifetime win a ring every 3-5 years and suck nearly all the others I'll take B.

I'm not worried. All of our lefty starters are great at getting righties out. Sometimes, Fenway can help a crafty lefty as hitters keep trying to pull everything- and the pitcher knows it.

I totally agree. Although we may be proven wrong, we may have sold high on all the guys we gave up. It looks that way with Shaw and Dubon anyways. Moncada and Kopech may come back and haunt us badly, but the risk was worth it, in my opinion.

I've probably been Buch's biggest defender over the last few years, but I have to think clearing cap space by trading him would set us up nicely for making a serious acquisition at the deadline (or before).

Not to mention other profits that come from winning: TV revenue, concessions money, Sox gear...

I'd rather win a ring every 3-5 years and suck the rest.

I think I preferred Adam Lind, but Moreland's defense might help more than the offensive differential. HanRam has said he's on board with DH'ing some, so maybe this will help keep him stay healthy and get more PAs. We can play Young at DH vs most lefties, and we can rotate some other players through the DH slot to get some rest, and maybe lessen their need for full days off. Which Moreland shows up? (Or, somewhere in between?) vs RHPs: 2016: .221/.293/.407/.700 2015: .294/.348/.528/.876 Career: .258/.321/.457/.778 (28 HRs per 650 PAs)

I was firmly against the Kimbrel trade, but this Thornburg deal is totally the opposite. Kimbrel was making near FA money, AND we gave up much better talent than for Thornburg who has 3 arb years left. I may be wrong, but I think T Shaw will never become more than a back-up or platoon corner IF'er. While Dubon still has upside, it seems most scouts had him ending up as a good utility player at best. Thornburg almost K'd 13 per 9 innings! It was a great trade (on paper).

We've traded a lot of youth, but Papi, Uehara, Ziegler, Hill and Tazawa are gone. That makes us younger right off the top. Ages under team control 28-30 Sale 31-32 or 36 Price (opt out) 28-30 Porcello 24-28 ERod 28-30 Pomeranz 32- 35Wright 32 Buchholz (Owens, Johnson, Groome) 29-30 Kimbrel 28-30 Thornburg 27-30 C Smith 29- 30 J Kelly 28- 29 R Ross 27- 31 Barnes (Elias, Abad, Hembree, Scott) 28-31 Leon 26-29 Vazquez 25- 29 Swihart 33-34 or 35 Ramirez 31 Moreland (Sam Tavis/Ockimey) 33-38 Pedroia 29-31 Holt 24-26 Bogaerts 24-29 Hernandez (Chatham) 30-32 or 33 Sandoval (Rafael Devers/Bobby Dalbec) 22-27 Benintendi 33 C Young 27-30 Bradley 24-27 Betts Not only d we have a roster with just about nobody past prime- hardly anyone is under team control beyond age 31 or 32! I'm concerned about losing a lot of prospects, but it's not like we have a bunch of 34-37 year old players with 1-2 years left on their contracts.

Even if he comes back and hits .250 25 90, it could be just enough to put us over the top.

Thanks. He's my #4 right now.