I still dislike the Kimbrel deal too, but with closer prices going through the roof, part of my position (giving prospects and paying near FA money) has been lessened in strength. He's making significantly less ($10.5M on the luxury tax budget) than a top FA closer would make today.
I don't think DD would have made the Pom deal had he known he was going to get Sale. I don't blame him for that, but I still really dislike the deal.
I do not think DD had to do all of these moves to make us the AL favorite. Maybe a better balance of the "now" and the "then" would have made me happier, but I'm very happy now.
I'm willing to go through some tough years later on in hopes of winning a ring or two in the next 4 years.
I do think times will be tough.
You have great faith in Sox management, and so do I, but the times have changed. It's not the same system anymore. That doesn't mean we can't change with the times and figure out a way to acquire good young talent or just decide to become the Dodgers East and spend heavily in taxes and lost revenue sharing to stay competitive.
My point is that, if we continue to draft like we have from the 20th slot down, or if you look how DD has drafted from the 20th slot down, it is not encouraging, in fact it is frightening. Sorry for not being optimistic, but what have we done to improve our scouting of lower level draft picks? I don't see DD as being better than Theo or Ben in this area, so where is the optimism coming from? If this is what we get with our non comp draft picks over the next 3-5 years, I'm not feeling any optimism at all:
(Non comp picks)
16-35:
26 Chavis. 33 Kopech 14
24 Marrero, 31 Johnson 12
28 R Fuentes 09
30 C Kelly 08
27 J Place 06
Comp Picks:
16-35:
19 Barnes, Swihart 11
20 Vitek 10
28 D Bard 06
Even if you include the comp picks, it's not pretty. Maybe we'll find another Betts in the later rounds, but even he was a one in nine drafts gem (Rizzo was taken in 2007 and was the last major draft find before Betts).
Again, my only optimism is with the international signings or maybe Henry deciding to pay mega taxes starting in 2-4 years. That's one reason I think Henry wants us to reset the tax this season (or next), so if he does have to go way over 3-4 years from now, the tax won't be at 50%. The international signing system has changed too. I'm not sure of the specifics, but from what I've read the new system in place makes it more difficult for high spending and big market areas to sign top prospects. If that's true, that could have a major effect on our best pipeline to great prospects.... Moncada, Bogey, Margot, Espi, Devers....
I've never said we are going to suck from 4-7 years from now. I think we can find a way to be pretty competitive in year 4, but I see no reason to think we'll be highly competitive in years 4-7 and maybe beyond.
It's easy to say any team spending $200M on salaries should always be highly competitive, but that has been proven wrong time and again. We need only to look at our history from 2012 to 2015. Not enough meaningful input from youth. Poor FA choices, which is the norm for most high-priced signings. We nailed it good in 2013, but I don't think anyone wants us to construct rosters like 2012-2015 again. The main reason we did so well last year was that we did not trade Betts, JBJ, Bogey and others for the "here and now". Many we screaming to trade some for Hamels, because they felt we were just a Hamels away from being a top contender. Sound familiar with Sale?
I'm highly optimistic about years 1-3. I'm not about 4-7. I really don't see any compelling argument that convinces me the odds are we will remain HIGHLY competitive after all these stars contracts expire (some of them at very low salaries comp[aritively).