moonslav59

Who are the most expendable players on our current 40 man roster? Here's my order: Noe Ramirez Deven Marrero Bryce Brentz (would be higher, but we have very little OF depth) Brandon Workman Roenis Elias (out of options) Fernando Abad (out of options) Heath Hembree (out of options) Luis Ysla Kyle Martin Josh Rutledge (out of options)

Some interesting notes on the seniority of Sox players on the 40 man rsoter: Seniority= only time on the Sox 40 man roster, not MLB seniority or time spent in the Sox system not on the 40 man roster. 38 players were added from July 2012 and after (Wright to Moreland). 34 we added after March of 2013 (JBJ). 31 were added after June of 2014 (Betts) 21 after Jan 2015 (Ross) 17 were added after the 2016 season (Kimbrel) 11 after the 2016 started (Leon) 6 after the 2016 season ended: K Martin, L Ysla, Thornburg, Sale, Rutledge & Moreland Pedey has the most seniority (since 2004) followed by Buch (added in 2007) Vazquez is the 4th most senior man on the Sox 40 man roster.

lol

Makes you wonder how people would be reacting now, if we swapped Moncada and Beni's short 2016 sample sizes.

Nice post. I heard one scout said Kopech had the best stuff he's ever seen in an outting.

Agreed. Wright and Pom were both top 30 MLB pitchers in the first half. Then, they got hurt. If they are healthy, I'll say their stock is high as well. Buch had a nice second half as well. MLB ERA- Rankings 1st Half 3 Wright 61 5 Pomeranz 62 28 Sale 80 31 Porcello 52 Price 2nd Half 5 Porcello 16 ERod 73 20 Sale 77 28 Price 81 (Buch would have placed 16th at 73, if he had enough IP.)

Maybe Pablo rebuilds his stock a bit and we can trade him for prospects after Devers steals his job away. Maybe we trade HanRam at the dealine of his last year here, and Devers (or Pablo) or Travis moves into the 1B job. Maybe Owens or Johnson surprise us, and we can afford to trade away a starter. There may come a day (cover your ears and crucifixes) we trade Pedey. As of now, it looks like we'd want to keep Betts, Bradley, Beni and Bogey for longer than we have control of them now. Price opting out could be a blessing. It would allow us to keep maybe 2 others.

Limington then New Gloucester

I'm hoping we continue doing well with international signings. Our ban will be lifted next spring. I have not given up hope on our extended future, but it seemed emphasizing how difficult it will be 9based on our last 11 yeaar history and the new system in place) needed to be expressed. I didn't mean it to sound like razors whizzing through these pages, but it seemed to me that some posters were minimizing the difficulties ahead or sugarcoating our longterm outlook.

He could have similar opportunities to trade a star before free agency, but won't we have to be losing for that to be a viable option?

There's really no compelling argument for any one of those 4 pitchers over another. There's the strong argument that because we used our 10th starter in May this year and still had to go trade for Pom, keeping all 7 makes sense. There's also the financial flexibility & roster argument that supports the idea that paying a 6 or 7 starter $13.5M while we ride the luxury tax fence makes little sense. I do think if one of these 4 looks horrible in ST'ing, he'll be in AAA or on the DL, assuming no trade is made by opening day.

DD better keep Devers. With openings at 3B and 1B/DH in the next year or two, he's got to be a keeper. Keeping Travis makes sense as well. We can hope Groome fills in for Pom and then Porcello down the road, but I've been told not to get my hopes up on single A pitchers. Maybe we'll have a sleeper rise to the top and fill a key role in 2020 and beyond, but we even gutted out a lot of those types. I'm happy with where we are. I think we'll be able to keep most of our kids, perhaps at a great financial cost, but in doing so, we're going to need a bunch of low cost players to fill in the rest of the roster without sucking.

It also took a system that allowed us to sign Moncada and pay a 100% tax without any further signing restrictions. A system, that for years, allowed us to draft players who fell in the draft due to unsignability issues. A system that gave us comp picks for losing aging stars that we simply replaced with new free agents with little penalties attached. The system has changed. We've done great in the international area, Rusney not withstanding, but we have not drafted well, unless we sucked and got high picks like Beni, TBall and Groome. I'm not sure we can expect better draft selections with DD & Co. We shouldn't be getting any picks above 24 for the next 3 years.

When you have 4 guys fighting for 2 slots, and they all are pretty close in terms of past performances, then ST'ing can influence who gets the first shot at winning and keeping a rotation slot. Pedro was never on the bubble.

I was going to say the same thing. I see no reason to think Wright will not be 100% by the first day of ST'ing. Pom's injury issue may be a bigger concern.

If the move makes sense at the time, which it did, then you regret nothing. I disagree but understand the sentiment. You hope the player you got did the job you need and wish the other well. Pom solidifies the BOTR with the upside of a 2-3 for low $$ and years of control. I think it was all part of the 3-4 year window plan. Yes, but I don't think DD foresaw getting Sale. No fault there. Espinoza has some special qualities, that if developed, he could become a very special MLB player in 3-5 years. As long as Pom does what was expected of him, then the deal should have zero regrets regardless of how Espi does in a few years. Even if Espi becomes the next Pedro at minimum wage?

I'd say ERod is pretty close to being at the point where inning limits are not a concern. He turns 24 in April, but he's been in professional baseball since age 17. Here are his IP totals by age: 17- 66 18- 49 19- 107 20- 145 21- 120 22- 170 (122 MLB) 23- 145 (107 MLB) Now, he uses a lot of pitches per inning, so these numbers don't tell the whole story. Pitches per PA 4.03 ERod 3.91 Pom (with Sox) 3.87 League avg 3.83 Porcello 3.79 Wright 3.78 Buchholz 3.78 Price

Yes, and I get the argument that others have made that until a prospect does something special at the AA or AAA level, there's much more of a bustability factor. What wows me about Espi is his near unlimited ceiling.

Exactly, and my point is that if we keep drafting like we have for the last 11-12 years after the 15th pick, the odds are stacked heavily against our rebuilding the farm to a substantially higher level than it is right now. Since 2006: (Non comp picks) 16-35: 26 Chavis. 33 Kopech 14 24 Marrero, 31 Johnson 12 28 R Fuentes 09 30 C Kelly 08 27 J Place 06 36+: 51 Chatham (118 Dalbec) 16 67 S Travis 14 37 P Light 12 172 Betts 11 77 Wilson 09 85 S Fife 08 6th Rd A Rizzo 07 2nd Rd Masterson 06 Comp Picks: 16-35: 19 Barnes, Swihart 11 20 Vitek 10 28 D Bard 06 23 Ellsbury, 26 Hansen 05 36+ 36 Owens, 40 JBJ 11 36 Brentz, 39 Ranaudo, 57 Workman 10 42 Buchholz, 45 Lowrie, 47 Bowden 05 As you can see, out of all the non comp picks we've had since 2006 after pick 15, we've drafted Kopech (2014), Betts (2011) & Rizzo (2007). Basically, we've drafted one significant player every 3-4 years without the aid of comp picks or high draft picks. One might argue about not counting Kopech yet, so that would be two in 11 years. Magically, we are now thinking we can rebuild the farm in 3 years, so prospects will be ready from 4 to 7 years out. Much of our farm was built on international signings, and we still have hopes in this area, but the restrictions on winning and large market teams have increased. It might not be as easy in this area either. Here is a list of our free significant international agent singings: 14-15 Castillo ($70M+), Moncada ($60M+), Espinoza $1.8M bonus 13-14 Devers $1.5M bonus, J Diaz $600K, Hinojosa $4M 12-13 Guerra $610K, Rijo $575M, Basabe $450K, Basabe $450K 11-12 Margot $800K, T-W Lin $2M 10-11 J Aro, Linares $750K 09-10 Bogaerts $510K, Iggy $6.25M, F Montas 08-09 Tazawa $1.8M 07-08 M Almanzar $1.5M, R Mendez $125K 06-07 Dice-K, Okajima I think our best hope is with international signings, but we'll have a smaller budget and tougher penalties for going over.

The next three drafts are what builds for years 4-7. We have Devers, Swihart, Travis and Groome in the wings now to handle the next three years- hopefully, but the next three years of young talent acquisition, starting with the next draft, is what our extended outlook will be like.

We are going to have to do things with our draft that we rarely have done in the last 11-12 years: draft quality prospects after the 20th pick. I'm not saying it can't be done, but it's going to have to be a new paradigm. Until I see it, I will remain skeptical.

Well, by May of this year, our 10th starter (O'Sullivan) got 4 starts, and later we had to trade for a starter (Pom), so having Pom in middle/long relief probably wouldn't last too long.

I wasn't surprised by Leon's defense. That's what we got him for. It certainly wasn't for his .550 OPS.

I've always known there was a significant risk of him being a total flop or near flop, but everyone agrees his upside is pretty damn high. I was also hoping someone would break the curse of Sox pitching prospects never panning out (except for Lester) since the Clemens and Schilling picks.

I value Cobb higher than Buch, even if the contracts were equal.