moonslav59

1) Nobody is claiming "the cliff" is going to be 3 or more years long. 2) We finished in 3rd place in 2006. Cliff? Probably not, but I don't recall any Sox fans expecting one. Henry was spending like a maniac, and not every player was coming up for free agency at once. 3) We saw our payroll go from $120M in 2006 to $143M in 2007. We signed Lugo and Okajima. We had signed Dice-K and others and traded top prospects for Beckett & Lowell a year before and created a kind of "window" from 2005-2007. We never hit a "cliff" until maybe the Valantine year, but we also did not win a WS between 2007 and 2013. certainly, we were more competitive than 2012, 2014 and 2015, which could have been called a cliff were it not for 2013.

Who has the list of all bonehead plays. Then, some here dispute just about every play we label "bonehead" by claiming it's just "aggressiveness". Then, looking at these numbers cannot take into account games with 2, 3 or more bonehead plays in the same game. It is a start though. I can't believe some feel the play where Holt held onto the ball was not a blunder, but I'm done arguing that. B-R had our winning that games chances go from 68% to 22% after that play (if I'm reading the numbers correctly). https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE201708210.shtml

Name a manager on any past top 5 spending team that has kept his job after finishing in last place in 40% of his seasons. My guess is zero in modern day history. Francona never finished last in his 8 years here. He was canned after finishing in 3rd place 2 straight years. TF's teams finished in 3rd 3 times in 8 years (38%), however, look at our records those 3 years: 90-72 2011 89-72 2010 86-76 2006 Call me crazy, fine, but if we win this year, in my opinion, it will be despite having JF as our manager and not because he was our manager. I'll give him all the credit in the world for getting the most out of our pitching, but nothing more. Hopefully, that will be enough.

We've had 39 comeback wins and 10 walk-off wins. We've blown 24 leads and have lost 4 times on walk-offs. Our mean runs scored is 4. If we score 5+ runs in our next 3 games, our mean runs scored would be 5. Our mean runs allowed is also 4. If we allow 3 runs or less in our next 4 games, it would be 3. In other words, we are very close to having means of 5 to 3. How does this compare to Cleveland, Houston and NYY? CLE: Mean runs scored: also 4 (also 3 games from being 5) Mean runs allowed: 3 (10 gms from 4 & 14 from 2) HOU: Mean runs scored: 5 (8 gms from 4) Mean runs allowed: 4 (9 gms from 3 & 9 gms from 5) NYY: Mean runs scored: 5 (4 games from being 4) Mean runs allowed: 4 (9 games from 5 & 12 from 3) Not much of a difference. Pythagorean Standings (differential from actual): 97-51 CLE (-6) 90-57 NYY (-9) 87-60 HOU (+2) 85-62 BOS (+1) 74-73 MN (+3) This seems to indicate we're winning more than we "deserve" and the Guardians and Yankees are actually even better than what their record indicates.

All teams have injuries. I am thrilled with what JF has gotten out of our pitching staff, particularly the pen. At the start of the year, I felt our pen, not 3B, was our weakest (not weak) link, and that was before Thornburg and Ross went down and we still had hopes on Smith returning in June or July. Our everyday players have been pretty healthy, in terms of not missing many games, but several players have dealt with injury issues for much of the year. With the everyday players, I just can't get past the decline or steep decline from just about every Sox player, except Vaz. I get the excuses for some of them, but even with valid excuses, it is still very rare to see over 90% of returning players decline, especially on a team with no player over 32-33 to start the season. I projected 100 wins with normal injuries. I'm not sure I'd say we've had more or less than "normal", so I see us as slightly under performing overall. It's a close call, and I can see areas we've done better than expected (despite injuries and health issues).

I'm not going to argue about Sox blunders anymore. I've said all I can say and more. I will say, in general, I feel one blunder can turn a game won or lost by 5 or more runs. It's not likely, but it could. Unless someone logged every mental blunder, which apparently are more subjective than I first believed, doing an full game analysis of all close games is not really possible.

moonslav the adroit one. a silk purse, just like that, right before our eyes. Watching and studying and writing about the Sox has you slightly unbalanced because you have said publicly Farrell can stay (for one more year) if the Sox win the AL East and at least one round in the postseason. That's right, isn't it? No, I said he likely will stay- not that I'd want him to stay. I wouldn't bring him back even if we win the WS. (I realize I'm probably a minority of one on that one.) Last night was certainly gritty. Sale disappointed (I refuse to write him off, however), but still went 6 giving up 4. The bullpen, whom I periodically rage against (and did last night) went 9 giving up 2--terrific. And the hitting, which disappointed us all in innings 1 thru 8 and 10 thru 13 (and maybe 14), was like we wanted them in innings 9 and 15. We need to give Sale extra rest over the next 2 weeks, perhaps even if we risk winning the division. As I wrote earlier, the low-down, misbegotten, trying to throw it all away Sox are actually 7-3 in the last 10 games. The Yankees, who are definitely surging--peaking, if you will, at just the right time--are also 7-3 in their last 10 games. Instead of playing the Rays in Tampa as scheduled, they got to play them in NYC (or close to it). So, even though the Sox aren't getting a lot of style points, it's hard for me to see why all the gloom and doom (I'm guilty too). I'm still very optimistic... like I've been since day 1 and before.

Unless we really need a win to avoid the wild card game, I'd really try to give Sale some extra rest. Here's the rest of the schedule: (All our starters just got one extra day of rest before their last start- some got 2 days. @TBR Porcello @TBR ERod @BAL Fister @BAL Pom @BAL (Velazquez-Price tandem start?) ---off---- @CIN Sale +2 @CIN Porc +2 @CIN ERod +2 TOR Fister +2 TOR Pom +2 TOR (Velazquez/Price) HOU Sale+1 HOU Porc +1 HOU ERod+1 HOU Fister +1 ----off---- ----off---- ----off---- Gm1 Sale +2 Gm2 Pom +4 ----off---- Gm3 Fister+1 Gm4 ERod +4 Gm 5 Sale (reg rest)

Great point- even against the best closers.

With our two top OPSs guys going 0 for 9 (Pedey) and 2 for 8 (Beni) and our bottom guy (Bogey) going 4 for 7 with a BB, we have an almost unbelievable tight variance between our 1 and 8 batters by PAs: .798 Beni .788 Betts .788 Pedey .772 Moreland .762 JBJ .761 Vaz .743 HRam .736 Bogey Our top 8 hitters by PAs are all within 62 points from each other! Others .885 Nunez .841 Devers .792 Travis .710 Lin .635 Leon .634 Davis .604 Marrero .480 Holt

Bogey and Betts showing life. (Like, who wasn't?) All 4 killer Bees with 2 or more hits.

What a game! We must have left 99 runners on base tonight. Ran into outs. Calls overturned and confirmed against us. Hits stolen by Kiemeier. Just about everything seemed to go wrong, but we've scrapped our way beyond the setbacks.

We're saving our "peak" for just the right time.

Does he need surgery...like in the off season?

HRam is our HR leader, so I can understand him being placed 4th or 5th. JF was probably hoping against hope, he'd get hot. I still think JBJ should have been given a longer look in the higher slots. HRam has had 16 starts beyond the 5 slot. Almost all were after we acquired Nunez and Devers. My guess is hardly any were to give JBJ a shot at the 4 - 5 slot. Like I said, there's not much difference between anyone on this team, but I thought waited too long to move some players down and give others a chance. It's not a big issue with me, but I so think it's significant.

Price was activated.

Thanks, Max. I'm obsessed with the Sox. Got that right. I really appreciate your enthusiasm, too.

I agree, but how many times do you hear an announcer say, "That was a fitting way for this team to win (or lose): they've been doing that all year long." I'm not going to harp on this issue anymore. I've already said more than I ever expected I would. You guys know my feelings, and I hope I never will never speak about this issue again.

I think 3 years would get him back here. I want him back, if his contract doesn't limit us from improving our clean-up slot upgrade.

That's the last thing I want to have happen. It would sicken me.

I still expect greatness from Betts starting this year, so yeah, I expect great things next year, too.

He has more PAs batting 9th, but he has plenty batting 6th. His numbers are too good to bat 9th so much, especially on a team hurting for hitting and especially power. .854 in 364 PAs batting 6th .773 in 749 PAs batting 9th. 2017 OBP .387 Pedey .360 Beni .341 Betts .337 Vaz .333 JBJ .333 Bogey .330 Moreland .320 HRam SLG .445 Betts .443 Beni .434 Moreland .428 JBJ .423 HRam .420 Vaz .419 Pedey .396 Bogey There's not much variance on either list, but JBJ has been better than HRam in OBP and SLG, and yet HRam almost always bats 4th or 5th.

Surprisingly, he's actually done better on the road than at Fenway since joining the Sox. .905 to .869 I really like Nunez, but this year will only be his second year with over 500 PAs. That makes it a little harder to project going forward at age 30-31.

Very true, these days.

Yes, his highest value was as a projectable catcher. Now, he's pretty much not that.