moonslav59

In 2014, Pablo posted a .739 OPS. That seems like a fair expectation for 2017.

LOL. It's a decent floor, and if he fields near average, those numbers would help us a lot, but clearly it's not monstrous.

In hindsight, we should have traded Youk before his rapid decline. I remember arguing to keep Beltre and have Youk play 1B. I did not think VMart was worth big money to play 1B and (in theory) replace Papi at DH at some point. Papi made it all the way through VMart's contract though. One big silver lining: we drafted JBJ and Swihart with Beltre's comp picks, so that mitigates the bad choice to some extent.

He's had an OPS over .900 twice in his career, and ended up with an .811 OPS in 7 seasons with the Giants. That's good. That actually very good. What many may not realize is that he also had a plus UZR/150 in those 7 years with SF! (+2.2), but to be fair, he's listed as being -2 in DRS. He was +3.5 in 2014 with a +4 in DRS that year before signing with BOS. Anyways, he was at least close to average on defense, before putting up one of the worst fielding shows (2015) at 3B in my lifetime. Then, there's the playoff heroics...

Or "out".

What a turn around for Panda on fan opinions and expectations from last spring to now. I remember I caught a lot of flack last fall for just mentioning Pablo being "in the mix" at 3B or DH for 2017. Now, he's basically all we've got, and posters are beginning to believe he can be productive again. A "monster year" might be pushing it, but my expectations are certainly growing every time I see a new pic of him.

Very true. Damon's noodle arm meant he'd have had to play LF or DH with the Sox. Correct me, if I am wrong, but didn't we have those two positions covered pretty well those years? I can't remember the names of those two scrubs we had playing LF and DH. Can anyone think of who they were?

Surprised you forgot about Ellsbury. Can't say as I blame ya!

If it includes trades, Nomar jumps out. FAs who bolted include, OCab, D Lowe, Mueller, Gonzo (ss), VMart, Beltre, Papelbon and of course Ellsbury.

In 2013, we used 11 starters (9 with 3 or more starts) and ended up having to trade for Peavy. In 2007, we had 5 starters with over 23 starts, but still used 9 starters, including Kason Gabbard for 7. In 2004, we had 4 starters with 29 or more GS'd. Fossum 14, Kim 5, Mendoza 5, Chen 2 and Rupe 1. Suppan was acquired and gave us 10 as our 9th or 10th starter.

Well, last year Pomeranz was number ten... 5: Price, Porcello, Buch, Erod & Kelly 6: Wright (needed right away) 7: Owens (needed after just 18 games) 8: O'Sullivan (needed after 32 games and probably leep-frogged Johnson and Elias on the original depth chart order) 9: Elias (after 52 games) 10: Pomeranz (started first BOS game on July 20th)

One of the three are depth. Wright is much better as a starter than RP'er, so we clearly are strong one deep. After that it gets sketchy.

Pom or Wright (or ERod) is our first depth, so that's good. I think Elias is #7, Johnson #8 and Owens #9. I think Owens is down to his last chance as a starter.

I think they are grooming Kelly to fill the role of Uehara or Ziegler.

Soxprospects list only 4 starters in Pawtucket, one being some guy named Scott Haviland that I know nothing about. Went to Harvard. Signed as a minor league FA. 4.57 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in almost 950 IP on the farm.

I think this question came up before, but does Elias really have an option remaining? That would be great if he did. If he doesn't, we risk losing him. After earlier reporting he had 0 options, soxprospects.com now has him with 1. As far as who to add, I honestly haven't looked to see who is available. I read this morning that the Twins just signed Vogelsong and Tepesch to minor league deals. As you have stated many times, this is the type of signing that Dombrowski needs to be looking into. Yes, these are the types we need to grab.

Yes, indeed!

I guess I just don't see value in Abad, especially with his $2M contract squeezing our flex space.

If Swi has a 1.200 OPS in ST'ing, it might be hard to justify him starting at AAA, but I doubt we get a great return by waiting to trade Vaz or Leon in early April. I think no matter what happens, if all 3 catchers are healthy, Swi starts in AAA, even if he hits 1200 and Vaz and Leon combined don't hit 1000.

B-R says we got him and Danny Murphy for Tony Muser and Vincente Romo.

The Rays also had a knack for getting career years out of journeymen then dumping them right before their return to mediocrity or worse.

Remember when Duane Josephson smacked 10 Hrs in about 300 ABs? Bob Montgomery's improbable .915 OPS in 1973 with 7 HRs and 15 XBHs in just 128 ABs? How about Rich Gedman's steep rise and steeper fall? Other recent high hope guys: Lavarnway Kottaras

Those of you looking to add arms, where? These are just the options already on the 40-man roster. I don't see us having the financial or available prospect resources to acquire a solid pen arm right now, but certainly there is a weakness or mediocrity at our 6-7-8-9-10 pen slots. Granted, most teams do not view these slots as strengths, so our "nedd" is not urgent at this moment. Here's what worries me, invariably a team needs one of two of these lower level pen guys to step up a notch or two into higher leverage situations, and there are just too many question marks about our 1 to 5 guys to hope this wont happen more than we wish. Kimbrel is on a 2-3 year decline. Thornburg and C Smith both have just one year of solid pen work in their resume, and CS is coming off a serious injury that may need extensive rehab time. Kelly looked great in a tiny sample size to end the 2016 season, and he's our 2 or 3 guy right now? YIKES! Ross has been steady and solid, but for some reason his innings and leverage innings were reduced from 2015 to 2016. (What's with that?) Pom or Wright in the pen? May not even happen, if ERod's injury necessitates a rehab stint in AAA to start the season. Barnes, Hembree and Scott all showed promise or glimpses of improvement, but needed one of these guys to become our number 3 or 4 could be an issue. I'm not screaming "The sky is falling" here. I see the reasoning behind not acquiring another (25 man roster) pen arm right now. We do still have one slot open on the 40 man (2 once we DFA or trade out of options Brentz), so I can see us adding a couple decent veteran pitchers on minor league deals. This may help us avoid or prolong any trade for a pen piece this summer.

Looks great to me, but I think they will start Pom ahead of Wright (assuming ERod is healthy). I also like Barnes a lot better than Abad, but I can see the value in keeping the pitchers without options on the 25 man roster. Personally, I'd trade Abad and save the $2M. If nobody wants him, I'd cut him loose. $2M might not seem like a lot, but we may be walking a tightrope with the luxury tax limit this season.

The Cards always know when to dump these kind of guys right before the fall off a cliff. Makes you wonder...