moonslav59

We may need a SP'er next year, if Pom bolts and our budget won't allow a decent replacement signing. Who might be ready for 2019? Shawaryn or Beeks? Johnson, Thompson or Lakins? Hmmm.... Hopefully, Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel without a big drop-off, but neither have that many years of team control left. Top closers are costly on the open market these days. We may see a young pitcher fill in here by 2020, but that's being, perhaps, overly optimistic.

Almost all arbs are worth their salaries or they would have been non tendered before the arb. The whole system seems flawed in some ways as things like what arb year is the player in seems to matter more than the performance level of the player in the previous season or two. I agree that JBJ is worth $10M on the open market, but the arb process is far from "open". The reason Mookie's arb number seems low compared to JBJ's is that Mookie's is a year one arb (out of 3). JBJ's is year 2 (out of 4). Kelly's was his final arb year, which normally is much closer to "free market" numbers than earlier arb years. I'm not defending the system, but it is what it is, and our players are getting close to "what they are worth" within the established system of setting the value of contracts for arb eligible players. Pom's $8.5M was in his final arb year. Bogey's $7M is in his 2nd of 3 arb years. I think Holt was overpaid at $2.25M for his 2nd or 3 arbs years, but we're talking by thousands not millions of dollars under the system in place. All in all, it looks like the Sox might end up saving a few million dollars over the estimates, but the Betts' arb decision might change that.

It's close to arb estimates. Every GM in MLB would pay that.

Light years difference. Agreed.

Maybe Donaldson's big payday lessens the chance the Jay's up their offer for JD (assuming they are the "other" bidder).

Maybe a half season or more with no Pedey and no ERod. No 38 games from Nunez, but no 32 games from Pablo, 90 games from Young, 37 games from Rutledge and probably less games from Leon. Yes, many games added onto the 58 Devers got last year, but what about this? More games by Vaz. Probably more games from Price. More games Carson Smith. More games from Steven Wright. More games from Brandon Workman. Hopefully many games from Thornburg. Possibly more games from Maddox & Velazquez. Yes, these guys won't help the offense, but they should help us win some more games.

It's also not unrealistic to expect a player who is approaching prime to get even better year by year. He could have a career year. True, he may have also already had his career year.

Me too. He looked pretty good at the end of last year.

Asking the same old crew to return and increase their run total by 6-7% isn't realistic. Is it any more unrealistic than to think we'd decline by 11% in runs scored from 2016 to 2017? If you are going to gain 50 runs as a team, youre going to need to add something else. Scoring 50 more runs this year would still be 43 less than 2016. Yes, we lost Papi from the 2016 team, but we've added Beni, Devers and our young stars are reaching prime.

For half of 2018.

I don't see it that way.

He may be doing taht already. I'm sure he has put fliers out to at least a couple other big named FAs. This may be one reason nobody else is signing. Once JD signs, the next guy may get a fresh and maybe a little more desperate bidder.

Your guys already busted out. They are due for a a dip. All Sox players are due for huge bust outs this year. So, to answer your question, "YES!"

It certainly make me want him more, but we already signed Moreland.

Wow, who is Abreu's agent? Sponge Bob Squarepants?

Agrred. Once the big dominoes start to fall, DD may have to act quickly, which may include asking another player to wait to sign while he then gives JD a time limit- take it or leave it.

I can agree with that, but projections made with the age curve as part of projections will likely be way more accurate.

I had little faith in Bruce. He's had a couple decent seasons recently .832 and .815, but not really all that great. Yes, the 36 and 33 HRs the last two season would fill that clean-up slot nicely. Yes, $39M/3 beats the hell out of $125M/5. I just look back on 2014 (.654) and 2015 (.729) and he scares the hell out of me!

The games is not changing as much as the ways we evaluate player value, and now projected player value.

Gotcha. I doubt DD lets all his plan Bs and Cs sign elsewhere as he waits on JD. Since nobody is signing now, there's no sense of urgency. Once the dominoes begin to fall, a timed final offer may be needed.

Yes, I agree, and it also goes beyond budget limits. It has to do with how much of an overpay is acceptable and how much value is projected from JD.

I wouldn't be shocked (or heartbroken), if JD signs elsewhere, as long as we make some sort of significant improvement over our 2017 team (on paper).

If BorA$$ wants the Sox to up their offer to top another, he wouldn't suggest JD want to play the OF over DH'ing. To me, that is a clue that we have the best offer, and BorA$$ is trying to get another team interested by thinking maybe they just need to come close to the Sox offer, and JD will choose them, because they can promise FT OF.

Counting rookie seasons as part of the "norm" is not realistic. Betts, Bogey and JBJ all had worse seasons than 2016 or 2017. All are just entering prime years. Pedey is at the end of prime. Expecting a worse 2017 than 2015 and 2016 in not unrealistic, but he's still young enough to have an uptick here and there, assuming good health. HRam has traditionally been up and down. It's not unrealistic to think he could hit .850 in 2018. Yes, JBJ, Beni and Devers are too hard to identify what their "norm" is, so it's even harder to expect a "regression" to something so nebulous.

No, just improve over 2017. Many declined over 2016 numbers as well: .832 JBJ .820 Betts .797 Pedey .776 Bogey .727 Holt HRam was at .817 in 2014. I'm not asking for career bests, but actually, we should expect one of two from our 5 or 6 players between 21 and 28 to have their best seasons (or close to it).