I think this is wishful thinking. 2022 is a long way away. The economy might crash by then. Hell, we could all be dead from global warming that far away! (LOL).
I doubt the limit goes to $250M that quickly.
A while ago, I thought Henry (and DD) might decide to reset teh year after we win a ring, but with the team we had last year, it would be a crime to not try one or two more years.
I do think we reset after 2020. We'll still spend just under the limit and may not be too bad, but we won't compete that year. We reset the tax and spend big the next year and budda-bing, we're back in the race.
The biggest problem with my theory is that after 2020 is when Betts becomes a FA. That works great for a reset, as losing his last arb year contract will almost get us under by itself, but he's the one guy out of everyone, I want to keep most. So, in order to keep him, we'd have to plan out current contracts to end after 2020 (like Eovaldi, a closer, or whatever). It might mean not signing Sale or Porcello or Bogey the year before, so we can later afford Betts. That kind of goes against the idea of keeping the window open for 2020 as it weakens our chances that year.
It's a tough call. Looking at the books and going on the assumption we want to keep Betts at all costs, it might make more sense to reset after 2019 or 2021, and not 2020.
Hard to know.