moonslav59

I hate to ever give up hope, but sadly, I have to agree. Maybe he tries another comeback, but we can never count on him for anything going forward.

Once he gets over his eye thingy, that will likely be the plan. I hope we don't have to make another deal like the Kinsler one this summer.

How many prospects that are doing poorly end up sticking around that long? That get chances to change positions to stick around, despite hitting poorly? I'm fine with agreeing to disagree, and I get the point that he never really got many extended chances to "prove himself," but when he did, he did not do well, even in AAA. Yes, he was hurt for some of the time, but he basically sucked from 2015 to 2019. That's a long time to give someone doing so poorly.

I doubt he takes $15M/2 to stay, but that might be the best DD would (could) offer.

When you demote a guy after 8 games one season and try to make him a LFer, then 17 ? games in another season, that is not a fair chance. It wasn't just those 8 games that decided his fate that season. Vaz was coming off an injury, and there was a decent enough sample size to show he was not a good catcher. He then had a chance in AAA after the demotion, and he sucked (.655 OPS in AAA). He even got called back up later in 2016, and he did nothting to distinguish himself. When a player stays on a roster an entire season and gets almost no playing time, that is not a fair chance. He got a chance when Vaz got hurt. He never showed anything promising after his 2014 season in the minors. He played in over 300 games from 2015-2019. While most were scattered and interupted, that's still more games than many other failed prospects ever get to see while playing so poorly. When you say Swihart will focus solely on catching a certain year, then shortly thereafter have him taking reps at different positions, that is not a fair chance. To me, it was way more than fair. He sucks as a catcher, so they gave him a second, third and fourth chance to make it at other positions. They did him a favor! He failed with every chance we gave him.

He really didn't do a great job on defense and with the staff in 2015--certainly not in the "admirable" category even considering the conditions. It's not like the guy was years away from ML ready. He was our starting catcher to start 2016 as well. He played AAA ball in 2014 and had an .810 OPS between AA & AAA that year. They may have called him up at some point in 2015 anyways. 2015 CERA: 3.47 Leon 4.51 Swihart 4.34 Team

I agree, and that's why I asked, if it was legal. If there is no rule preventing it, maybe we could try, and just like the Rusney Castillo situation, they could create a new rule after the fact.

They had to keep him on the roster, because he was out of options. He wasn't good enough to play everyday. They tried to give him chances to prove himself at other positions, but he failed (or got hurt) there, too. When he still had options, he sucked in the minor, too (after 2014). He has sucked from 2015 to 2019 with a brief streak of decent hitting in 2015. Even that was 3 years ago! I just don't agree with the position that he "wasn't given a chance." The guy got more chances than he deserved.

Well, you did say, "he did an admirable job." Since his only plus that year was offense, I made the assumption.

When has that ever stopped a company from trying?

Posters gave up last year, too!

It would certainly benefit the Sox, if they could get away with it. Pedey gives up his player salary by retiring. He then makes the same plus some more for coaching. We pay no more taxes on his money ($13.75 x 2 years). If they can get away with it, it helps a lot.

Everyone would "know" it wasn't for coaching. It would be for his remaining contract he gave up to save the team from taxes. The issue would be league or union acceptance, not coaches acceptance.

A .716 OPS in CF is not far from average.

I'll take .703 at this point (his OPS from 2017-2019).

3 JBJ's: .548 2013-2014 (first 530 PAs) .834 2015-2016 (891 PAs) .703 2017-2019 (1134 PAs)

True, but just last year, he had a very long consistent streak of above average hitting: May 20 to Sept 30 (102 games and 393 PAs) .260/.333/.460/.793

Yes! I've made this point as well. It goes beyond Pom... IP ER Lost from 2018: 74 50 Pom 66 32 Kelly 17 14 Cuevas 8 4 Haley 7 6 Scott 6 9 Beeks 178 IP- 115 ER 5.81 ERA Non Kimbrel 2.74 Kimbrel (62 IP and 19 ER) All combined: 240 IP 134 ER 5.05 ERA

Even Kimmi fell for the decent catcher OPS Swihart had in 2015. How quickly Swihart was removed in 2016 was a strong sign of how Sox top brass has viewed Swihart;'s catching skills.

I assumed everything else was equal when I made the .300 vs .295 hitter but failed to say it. If you look at Sale's sample size, the 1200+ PAs is like two full seasons for a hitter. He's about 3/4 of a run better with Leon than all the other catchers combined. Of course, there could be other factors that helped create that gap beyond anything Leon did differently, but when you don't see any other starting pitchers with much worse numbers with Leon, I think one can accurately surmise that Leon makes a big difference with some pitchers and maybe not much with others, but is rarely negative with any large sample size pitcher. Yes, the Vazquez/Swihart sample size is not that large, but everyone else combined is! Maybe it's not 0.75 just because of Leon, but even if he was responsible for 0.25 to 0.50, that is far and away enough to offset his .450 OPS on offense. The gap with Price, to me, seems even more striking when you figure his years with Boston have been spotty, and he was not in prime years, yet he still blows away the rest of the catchers combined than when he's with leon.

It baffles me how he can hit very well for pretty long stretches and then just turn ice cold for even longer stretches. He was over .800 for about 900 PAs at one point in his career, but I'm losing hope on him ever becoming consistent.

1) maybe he wants to coach or be a consultant with the Sox. 2) He wouldn't lose any money. 3) He'd still make what he was going to make as a coach or consultant, anyways. For example, he's due $25M after this year. Maybe he would have signed as a coach for $10-15M over 25 years. We get him to retire as a player- like Dempster. He then signs a $35-40M contract for 25 years as a coach/consultant. He makes $10-15M more, and we get off the luxury tax hook for $13.75M over each of the 2020 and 2021 seasons. I'm not sure, if this would be allowable, so that's why I asked. (Maybe the Sox don't want him in the organization after he retires. Who knows?)

Well, CERA, as you mentioned, does show a very significant differential between Leon and Vaz/Swihart with Sale & Price. The sample sizes are pretty large. Career Sale: 2.50 with Leon (1273 PAs) 4.50 with Vaz (279 PAs) 3.23 everyone else but Leon over his whole career Price: 2.83 with Leon (769 PAs) 4.32 with Vaz/Swihart (1234 PAs) 3.31 with everyone else over his whole career Do we "know" these numbers are all because of Leon? No, of course not, but do we know a career .300 hitter is a better hitter than a .295 one, since so many factors go into how a hit becomes a hit and is ruled a hit or an error?

Just because it is not quantifiable does not mean it does not exist or cant be significantly impactful. CERA, when used correctly, can quantify it to some extent, but it is far from perfect for many reasons. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence when you listen closely to the level of praise each catcher gets from various pitchers. It's about comfort levels, pitch sequencing/calling and the ability to adjust a game plan on the fly based on experience and a vast knowledge of the batters.

Yes, but maybe he can restructure his deal into a longer less impactful one. I mentioned a while back about Pedey maybe signing a lifetime services deal that might spread his owed money, plus a little more over 25 years. Would the league allow him to retire, forgo his player salary and then sign a mega coaching/services contract like that?