moonslav59

I looked at each of CC's 3 transitioning seasons, and the best 11 game sample sizes I found were: 2013: 3.48 (game 2-12) 2014: 5.28 (only started 8 games) 2015: 3.84 (game 19-29) It looks like Sale's transition year 1 is already ahead of any of CC's 3 years.

Do you discount his 11 game stretch this year as luck or what?

Weber should be gone after this year. I have more faith in Johnson and Velazquez, which isn't saying much.

I'd pay Betts over $30M. He's worth it. I wish we hadn't signed Eovaldi. It would have made keeping Betts much easier. I know having just 6 or 7 players making a big chunk of the budget creates serious issues, but Betts is a keeper.

He seems to have the "fire & desire" to continue being highly competitive. He's shown hints of being a great pitcher a few times this year, including an 11 game stretch of 2.24 ERA. In those 11 games (72.1 IP) he K'd 116 batters and walked just 16. Opps had just a .540 OPS against. That's like 9 Sandy Leons! I'm hopeful it won't take years for him to get back to greatness. I have no idea how long it will take.

Doesn't count what Brady makes from the sweetheart TV monies.

I agree 100%, but my point was that there is a big drop off from our top 5 RP'ers (Workman, Barnes, Walden, Taylor and Hembree) and the next 3-5 (Brasier, Velazquez & Brewer). Had we been able to limit the IP of our worst RP'ers, we may not have had as many blown saves. This doesn't change the fact that our pen sucked and needed at least 2 more quality arms.

There is zero pressure, right now. The season is over.

I'm hopeful Sale and Eovaldi will improve- possibly by a great amount, but I do not "expect" it.

When we got Ockimey, we knew he was "raw" and needed time to improve. He reached rule 5 last year, and it's getting close to the point where we may have to choose someone else deserves a shot with this team. I see our 2020 forty man roster as very weak on the bottom 10-15 players. I'm thinking I may rather give him one more year than several other players on the 40 man roster now.

I don't see one starter that I expect will be better.

That, alone, is very significant. Also, one less inning for the pen means your worst RP'er never comes in. Our 7th and 8th best pen guys have sucked way more than the sucky 4-6th best RP'ers. Here's our pen numbers in order of IP'd: ERA RP'er WHIP 3.56 Walden 1.096 2.03 Workman 1.027 4.31 Brewer 1.750 4.36 Barnes 1.338 (Had we only needed these 4 guys plus maybe Taylor, in close games, we'd have been better off.) 4.46 Brasier 1.215 4.06 Hembree 1.381 3.95 JTaylor 1.390 4.50 Velazquez 1.333 7.71 Thornburg 1.661

I agree. I do not want to trade him. I was just arguing that his trade value is higher, even as a rental, than some here seem to think it is. I'd seek to extend him. If he will not extend, I'd think about trading him, but I'd let it be known I want him back as a FA the following winter. I can see the point made about not trading him and losing him to free agency for just a comp pick for the declined QO.

They cannot do much worse. I'm not sure we can expect Price to be the same or better. He's already been babied to the extreme. Sale is a huge wild card. He could be a Cy Young winner next year or more of the 2019 Sale. ERod has been very steady for 2 years, now. He's in his prime, so I think we can expect the same from him. Eovaldi may be a bigger wild card than Sale. I think he'll be in the rotation, but I would count on 24 starts, let alone 32. Who is the 5th starter? I doubt we spend large on one. My guess is we give DHern, Johnson & Velazquez the job. I'm not all that optimistic about our 2020 rotation, and I'm still thinking the Sale signing was a good one. IMO, we should keep our core talent that is under team control through 2021 or 2022 and sell off the rest this winter or next deadline.

He's looked way better in the field than I expected. Granted, I did not expect much on defense, and he seems to have been a plus, so far. He has been way better than Nunez at 2B. He seems to be about the same as Holt at 2B. He's probably not as good as Moreland at 1B, but he's been healthy and has made some great plays that I'm not sure Mitch makes.

Yes, but they will still be paying about $25M/yr and be losing 3 of their top 5 prospects. I think the Astros are trying to replicate the Verlander deal. They just shortened their window while increasing their odds of winning over the next 2.3 seasons.

I count only 17 players that are highly likely to be on our 40 man roster next year, due to need, untradeability and/or long term value. 12 Core Keepers: Betts Bogey Devers ERod Beni Chavis MHernandez DHernandez Walden J Taylor Dalbec (rule 5) Chatham (rule 5) 4 Unlikely to trade, unless we pay a big chunk: JD Price Sale Eovaldi 1 Not able to trade: Pedey That's only 17 players! Could trade (due to limited team control and/or salary or low value) JBJ Workman Barnes Hembree Johnson Velazquez Brasier Brewer Lin Shawaryn Travis Lakins Poyner J Smith Weber Curletta Kelley

You may be right, but we have a need at 1B next year, and Chavis may be at 2B. We may also be looking to reset our tax, so guys like Dalbec, Chatham, DHern & Ockimey might stick around.

2020's 40 Man Roster (assuming no FA signings) Pedey Wright (non tender?) Vaz JBJ (last arb) Workman (last arb) Bogey Betts (last arb) Hembree (Trade?) Barnes (Trade?) ERod Johnson (Trade?) Marco Price Beni Sale Velazquez (Trade?) Travis Lin Devers JD Poyner (Trade?) Walden Brasier (Trade?) Eovaldi Brewer (Trade?) Chavis Lakins (trade?) Taylor DHern Reyes Leon (Non tender?) J Smith (Trade?) Curletta (Trade?) Weber (Trade?) Shawaryn (Trade?) Kelley (Trade?) There are so many players on this list that can be non tendered, DFA'd or traded without us skipping a beat, that I seriously doubt we lose anyone we want to rule 5. Here's the Rule 5 List for this winter: Juan Carlos Abreu Christopher Acosta Fabian Andrade Yoan Aybar Roldani Baldwin Eduard Bazardo Gary Calvo Marino Campana Pedro Castellanos Rusney Castillo CJ Chatham Jake Cosart Ricardo Cubillan Bobby Dalbec Enmanuel De Jesus Chad De La Guerra Jhonathan Diaz Jerry Downs Devon Fisher Matthew Gorst Kyle Hart Trenton Kemp Matt Kent Adam Lau Fransico Lopez-Soto Nick Lovullo Everlouis Lozada Tate Matheny Samuel Miranda Oddanier Mosqueda Josh Ockimey Angel Padron Yorvin Pantoja Keibert Petit Roniel Raudes Austin Rei Hildemaro Requena Jeremy Rivera Kleiber Rodriguez Jake Romanski Jagger Rusconi Alberto Schmidt Andrew Schwaab Nick Sciortino Kevin Steen Cole Sturgeon Kervin Suarez Luke Tendler Josh Tobias Kyri Washington Marcus Wilson

I think we protect Ockimey, not because they think he is all that great, but because we will have plenty of open roster slots after we purge all the dead wood.

But, they gave up 3 of their top 5 for a $35M pitcher.

I disagree. Betts is quite the "positional player." He is a GG defender. He hits for BA & power. He runs the bases very well. He's not Encarnacion. The Guardians just traded 1.3 years of Bauer for the rental Puig (plus some prospects). While the O's did not get a #1 pitching prospect for Machado, they did get a prospect that became their #1 prospect plus 3 other pretty good prospects for a rental last summer.

I mentioned Hernandez and DHern, so both. The trade one list was the list of players paid too much for most teams to take on. Pedey will not be traded. I mentioned the need to pay part of the salary, so we could get under the tax line for 2020. My guess is we may not have to pay a whole lot of the salary of JD, Sale Eovaldi or Price. 2020 Tax Salary Budget: $Millions 31.0 Price 25.6 Sale 22.0 JD (assuming option) 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 13.8 Pedey 4.5 Vaz Total:$134M (7 players) Arbs: (est) 27 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs) 10 JBJ (4 of 4) 9 ERod (3 of 4) 4 Beni (1 of 3) 3 Workman (3 of 3) 3 Barnes (2 of 3) 2 Hembree (2 of 3) 1 Wright (3 of 3) 1 Hernandez (1 of 3) Total $60M (9 players) Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster) Total: $16M 40 man roster with no FA signings: $210M +$15M player benefits= $225M Bye-bye: Porcello, Cashner, Moreland & Pearce Holt (maybe back) & Leon (unless back for near min) To get under the $208M limit, we'd have to not only avoid signing any FAs, we'd have to trade about $17M in salary. That would likely be JBJ ($10M) and maybe Eovaldi (by paying about 1/3 his salary) or getting Pedey to retire and forgo his salary (fat chance).

Betts is a known quantity. Prospects are not. Betts could be all a GM thinks he needs to "put him over the top." I think Betts would net us a top prospect of 2 or 3 of a team's top 5 prospects at the 2020 deadline, assuming he's over .880.

I think most baseball people felt he'd get 6+ years at over $30M per year. I remember hearing some say $35M x 7 was possible.