moonslav59

It's pure speculation, of course, and the names on the list (more than 26, BTW) are just possible slot-fillers.

It doesn't look like it helped for 2020, but it didn't hurt more than losing Betts. Let's see how Price does, and how healthy he is going to be.

soxprospects.com has this as the projected 2021 roster: SP: Sale, Erod, Eovaldi, Perez, Mata/Ward RP: Barnes, DHern, Houck, Hembree, Taylor, Brasier, Feltman, Mazza/Osich C: Vazquez, Plawecki 1B: Moreland, Chavis 2B: Downs, Peraza (Pedey) 3B: Devers, Dalbec SS: Bogaerts, Chatham LF: Beni, Wilson CF: Duran, Lin RF: Verdugo DH: JD

Huh?

Not even close. We will remain a big spending team, even this year. Our rebuild could be hastened by writing off 2020. If we spend over the tax line in 2021, we could be an odd-on playoff team. The Marlins are years away.

This season is toast. Just put Sale under the knife and hope for a speedy return. Deal Workman and others at the deadline. Make deals that only help us in 2021 and beyond- with an emphasis on 2022 and beyond.

Thanks for the update. Looks like Weber is pushing for the opener slot/5th starter.

His sub par years were long ago. Yes, his injury history hurts his value. I never said otherwise. His 2017 and 2018 seasons were not "sub par." He's been pretty healthy for 3 years in a row. I think that helps his value more than missing 2015 & 2016 with injuries and sucking in 2014 (maybe due to an injury). IP (MLB & AAA) 68.2 2017 (4-1 1.55/ 1.000 in AAA in 29 IP) 71.1 2018 (2-1 3.90/ 0.867 in AAA in 30 IP) 71.2 2019 all MLB

Workman's 2017-2019 numbers: 17-3 2.59 (153 IP) 1.127 WHIP 5.9 H/9 0.8 HR/9 4.2 BB/9 10.5 K/9 3.52 FIP Craig Kimbrel 2017-2019 10-5 2.66 (152 IP) 0.934 WHIP 5.0 H/9 1.3 HR/9 3.4 BB/9 14.9 K/9 3.02 FIP

Mostly due to injuries. His career numbers are brought down by that horrific 2014 season (1-10 5.17/1.452 WHIP). That was long ago. He missed 2016 and parts of other seasons, but the two seasons prior to 2019, he was decent: 7-2 3.22 in 81 IP(1.210 WHIP) 8.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 If he could bring his BB/9 rate down, 5.7 in 2019, he could be great. He only allowed 3.6 H per 9 IP last year (7.4 career)! He had a 0.1 HR/9 rate (1 HR in 71.2 IP)!

I'm not fully against signing Puig, but his contract will limit what we can pick up at the deadline.

We could trade Chavis or Dalbec and a picther for a better pitcher. I'm not talking blockbuster. I'm talking about slowly building up the pitching staff with decent pitchers who have 2+ years of team control. Maybe trade Workman, Barnes or Hembree (Moreland?) to a contender for a pitching prospect. If Eovaldi is doing well, we could trade him for younger pitching.

Our offense is way better than our pitching. We will lose way more games because of our starters and our pen than lack of hitting. Yes, we could improve a few slots on offense, but we have massive holes (yes plural) in our rotation and pen. Rotation: With Sale and Eovaldi's health histories or recent troubles, we could be looking at 2-3 slots to fill, and I'm not just talking 2020. I'm thinking we need to look at finding a way to get a decent SP'er under team control beyond 2020 and hopefull beyond 2021 as well. I realize that is not as easy as picking up a decent 2Bman, but we did just acquire Downs,so I don't see 2B as a bigger need than SP'er- not even close. Pen: We have seen our pen over achieve the last few year than what was expected on paper. I've been a huge Workman fan, but I'm not sure he's going to do as well as 2019. Barnes declines, last year, for the first time in his career. Hembree has health issues. Walden seems to be pulling decency out of his ass, but maybe he'll continue doing well. Taylor looked very good last year, but are we really going to count on a repeat? DHern has enormous potential, but needs time to harness it. I don't think anyone counts on our pen as being top 10 or even top 15 in MLB. Other "weak links" in non pitching areas? Here's how I rank them: 1. 2B Pedey is toast- scratch him off even the miracle list. We do have a lot of options here. Granted, none look great, but a few show promise and we now have Downs for the long term future. (Pedey) Chavis Peraza Lin Arauz Marco Chatham Downs 2. Catcher: I don't see this as an area of big need.I am worried about Vaz's inconsistency at the plate and how almost every SP'er, except ERod does much worse with him than they did with Leon, but I seriously doubt we are even looking to use valuable resources to upgrade here. Vaz Plawecki Lucroy Centeno Wong CF/OF: Our OF depth is weak- no doubt, and with Verdugo's health an issue, and the need to keep JD at DH as much as possible, I can see wanting to sign Puig, but I'd rather save the money for a deadline trade for a pitcher under team control for 2+ years. Benintendi Verdugo JBJ Pillar (JD Martinez- DH) Puello Lin Moreland (emergency) Duran Jimenez Castillo (lux budget issue) Longhi Andreoli Sturgeon 1B: We can find serviceable 1Bmen for a dime a dozen, especially at the deadline. Moreland Chavis Dalbec Ockimey (could be a decent platoon) Witte Casas (far away) We are not upgrading SS or 3B.

Pitching Leaders in ST'ing WHIP (IP) 0.53 Brice 5.2 0.63 Eovaldi 8.0 0.67 Velazquez 3.0 0.86 ERod 7.0 0.88 Brewer 5.2 0.95 Johnson 6.1 1.00 Brasier 3.0 1.00 Weber 5.0 1.13 Walden 2.2 1.25 Reyes 4.0/ Taylor 4.0 1.50 Osich 4.2/Workman 2.2 Other notables: 1.67 Mata 3.0 1.71 Barnes 2.2/Shawaryn 2.1 2.00 D Hern 1.0 2.05 Houck 6.1 2.63 Hembree 2.2/M Peres 2.2 3.00 Poyner 2.0 3.33 Mazza3.1

Sox Leaders in ST'ing OPS (ABs) 1.362 Wong (10) 1.286 Castillo (21) 1.186 JBJ (22) 1.132 Plawecki (14) 1.121 Moreland (9) 1.077 Devers (13) 1.018 JD (20) .988 Duran (19) .945 Beni (15) .944 Lin (17) .905 Ockimey (21) .818 Chavis (20) Other notables: .775 Dalbec (22) .757 Pillar (22) .721 Wilson (19) .701 Arauz (21) Rule 5 .571 Peraza (21) .540 Downs (17) .435 Vaz (15) .349 Chatham (14) .209 Marco (17) .000 Bogey (7)

My point was about wanting to improve pitching- maybe not just for 2020 but beyond, even when pitching isn't a weakness. Pitching is a big weakness right now, so it should be our primary priority. That's not to say that if a deal falls in our lap that improves a non pitching area, we shouldn't do it, but with such limited financial and prospects available to upgrade any area, the focus needs to be, IMO, on pitching ONLY.

I've always been from the school of wanting to improve pitching, even if it's not a weak link. It is, now.

If your weakness is pitching, I think it's counterproductive to use your last available resources on hitting.

When a lot of small to moderate sample sizes all point the same direction, it is significant. The Price sample sizes are both pretty large: 204 IP to 360 IP. Porcello's 576 to 211 is, too. I admit the Buccholz (both over 130 IP) is not really that much, and Vaz's innings with Sale (84) is small, but when you combine it with Pom and Wright, and they all show very significant differentials all heavily in the same direction, there is true meaning to the numbers. ERod is the only one with pretty much no difference but with Vaz having a slightly better CERA.

Nobody had magic, last year. However, some had less magic than others: Porcello 4.44/.709 Leon 93 IP (Close to his career 4.36 ERA) 6.37/.885 Vaz 76 IP 13.50/1.338 Swihart 5 IP Sale 3.79/.622 Leon 116 IP (Not bad) 6.68/.956 Vaz 31 IP ERod & Price pretty much only threw to Vaz. Leon and Swihart had less than 10 IP with each. Vaz did much better with both. I'm not sad to see Leon go, and my post wasn't meant to be about him. It was in response to the post about Vaz "calling a good game." I don't see it.

Some are not small, and lots of small ones combined make a significant sample size for both catchers.

No mockery from me. Sandy was an overall plus for this team.

If you believe the CERA numbers mean anything, these differentials are shocking: Sale 1.82 better CERA with Leon .188 better OPS against How much does 2 more runs per 9 IP hurt his value? (note: 84 IP is kinda small.) Price 1.31 better CERA with Leon .091 better OPS against How much is a run and a half hurt? (Both have fair sample sizes). Porcello 0.77 better CERA with Leon .066 better OPS against (Both had 200+ IP with Rick.) Buchholz 1.43 better CERA with Leon .059 better OPS against ERod is the only pitcher Vaz did better with on CERA, but his OPS against was worse than Leon & Swihart! There is not SP'er with significant IP'd with 2or more Sox catchers where Vaz has a better CERA and OPS against with. Leon has a better CERA and OPS against vs Vaz with 4 out of 5 (splits the 5th) Swihart splits in CERA and OPS against vs Vaz with the 2 starters they both qualified with (74+ IP)

I don't disagree, but we need a good young catcher- maybe before trading him. Wong projects to be a catcher or maybe 1B/LF with the ability to be a team's emergency 3rd catcher. Vaz may do well framing pitches, but he has a very weak record getting the best out of the team's best SP'ers. That is worrisome, and it decreases his value more than many may think it does. While CERA is a flawed stat, it is useful in comparing catchers on the same team through the same time periods. The IP with each catcher, on the Sox however, are often too far apart to really judge well. Here are some eye-opening numbers: ERA/OPS against -Pitcher- career IP (all catchers listed with 74+ IP) Sale with each catcher: 2.51/.622 AJ Pierzynski 226 2.79/.575 Sandy Leon 436 2.98/.632 D Navarro 97 3.02/.616 T Flowers 552 3.36/.725 J Phegley 88 3.53/.680 Alex Avila 112 4.61/.763 C Vazquez 84 (While his IP are lower, his numbers are frightenly bad, here. It's no wonder Leon was Sale's binky.) Price 2.30/.555 R Martin 74 2.67/.599 A Avila 111 2.78/.691 J McCann 107 2.85/.634 J Molina 473 2.96/.647 S Leon 204 3.06/.616 J Jaso 191 3.09/.661 Navarro 128 3.61/.705 Schoppach 162 4.27/.738 Vazquez 360 (Some of the catchers above Vaz are not known for defense or handling pitchers well.) Porcello 4.17/.735 Avila 578 4.19/.728 Leon 576 4.32/296 Laird 296 4.93/.800 Swihart 122 4.96/.794 Vazquez 211 5.38/.831 Holaday 82 (Notice how the best CERAs relate to the most IP almost exactly, here. Even Swihart did slightly better than Vaz!) Rodriguez 3.98/.711 Vazquez 456 4.05/.700 Leon 118 4.44/.692 Swihart 75 (Both Swihart and Leon got better OPS against than Vaz. It doesn't look like ERod cares who his catcher is.) Buchholz 2.83/.642 VMart 241 3.01/.646 Leon 155 3.23/.622 Shoppach 78 3.95/.737 Salty 207 4.44/.705 Vazquez 130 5.12/.801 VTek 118 Wright 2.94/.611 Hanigan 95 3.49/.700 Vazquez 101 Pomeranz 1.99/.542 Norris 3.92/.745 Vazquez 198 To be fair, Vaz did do slightly better (Barnes) and even much better (Kelly & Workman)with certain RP'ers. He did much worse with Hembree, but the sample sizes are pretty small for some catchers with each RP'er.

He "calls"a crappy game. His CERA sucks vs Leon's. His bat has been great (for a catcher) and s***** from year to year. (I would love to see us trade Chavis for Campusano, Myers and $30M.)