moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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5% is .050, you know- not .005. If someone's LD% goes up .050, it might have something(or a lot) to do with why the BAbip went up .060. I'm not saying LD% accounts for all of the differentials, but I don't think just looking at wild discrepancies in BAbip without also looking at LD% and Hard hit% helps factor in how much be just good or bad luck. Certainly every line drive does not fall for a hit- just as every soft hit ball is not an out, but if someone's LD% goes up, I'd expect his BAbip to go up, also. BTW, if someone's LD% goes from 25% to 30%, it not increasing by 5%, it's actually going up 20%. 5/25= 20% -
I think we done stripped Stripling.
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There used to be a time where driving up the pitch count on starters was a benefit- not so much anymore. I'm not sure how easy it is to tell, let alone get your hitters to radically change their approach. So many really want to just see the first pitch, the pitchers motions, or whatever. I'm not sure I'd mess with any hitter that has a good thing going, In general, your point makes sense. I'm just not sure how practical putting it in action can be.
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If you are counting longevity, your list seems better, but if you go by who was best during their best 4-5 years, Pedro would be high on my list.
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We have to strip Stripling of all his confidence. Richards has been doing very well since his first 4 starts.
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There's more to BAbip than just luck. Sometimes, the opps are hitting the ball hard for hits- not lucky soft hits. Look at Line Drive% and Hard Hit% as compared to career or previous years. ERod: 2021: 26% LD% (career 21.5% and under 20.1% his last 2 years) 27% Hard % (career 29.2%) Kinda mixed messages, here. People say Pivetta is lucky, and this streak is unsustainable. Yes, his .240 BAbip is much lower than his career .317, but look at how less hard hitters are hitting his pitches: Pivetta 21.9% LD% (23.4% in 2020 and 25.2% in 2019) 26.2% Hard% (44.7% in 2020 and 39.8% in 2019) How about Perez? BAbip .316 (career .310) Hmmm... 25.2 LD% (22% career) 24.1% Hard% (31.4% career)
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2021 MLB draft
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Great, let's draft pitchers already hurt. They'll fit right in! (Sarcasm alert. Getting one of these guys in the second round would be nice.) -
One major thing about RP'ers and ERA is this. If he comes in with 2 outs, and only his batters who get on base and score count vs his ERA, how much easier is it to not allow his own runner to score, when he only needs to get 1 out not 3. It's also easier when coming in with 1 out. Too much luck is involved. ERA for RP'ers is was down on my list of useful stats. ERA- or ERA+ is much better for SP'ers than just ERA, and it's pretty simple to understand.
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2021 MLB draft
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I've almost given up on any hope of getting a pitcher from our system. ' We have done well by getting them from elsewhere, and stocking up on everyday players from our system. That's not to say we can't change. It sure would be nice to get a deGrom form our own system. -
I agree. I almost took the Rocket off my list, but he was really great, as a pitcher. As person, he's a real dick, and not just with the cheating and lying in baseball. (He lives in my hometown: Sugar Land) BTW, I'm not a fan of FIP, but it does give some valuable information. It's just not the whole story- as no stat is. To me, there are a lot of really good pitchers who pitch to contact and don't get a lot of K's, but the ball that are hit are not hit hard and mostly go for outs. They don't look good with FIP.
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How would you rank the 10 best pitchers since 1991? 1000+ IP A Randy Johnson Greg Maddux Roger Clemens Pedro Martinez Mike Mussina Curt Schilling J Verlander Kevin Brown Andy Pettite C Kershaw B C Kershaw J deGrom Pedro Martrinez Greg Maddux Chris Sale Johan Santana G Cole C Kluber M Scherzer K Hendricks C deGrom Kershaw Sale Pedro Stasburg Kluber Cole Johnson Scherzer Maddux I might like A, then C, then B, but B and C are close. A= WAR B= ERA C= FIP Here's ERA- 63 Kershaw (may drop as he ages) 65 deGrom (same) 67 Pedro 71 Clemens 72 Sale 72 Johnson 72 Webb 73 J Santana 75 Kluber Looks better than "B", despite Brandon Webb. How about xFIP? Sale deGrom Strasburg Kershaw Kluber Eldred Schilling Cole Johnson Halladay (No Pedro?) My top 5: 1. Pedro 2. Clemens 3. Maddux 4. Sale 5. deGrom
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I'm not a big fan if FIP, but it does tell a good story. ERA is seriously flawed, especially for RP'ers due to not always having to get 3 outs per inning. ERA+ or ERA- is an improvement, but I still like OPS against and WHIP about as much as ERA-.
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It just seems like we can never catch a break with our pitching prospects. We finally get a sleeper prospect, Houck, get our hopes up, last year, and now he's on the IL. Mata was #3 at the end of 2020, Now he's 11th. Ward is still 8th. Seabold moved from 9th to 7th. Whitlock has moved up to 4th, since the start of 2021. Aldo Ramirez moved from 10 to 9 as Mata dropped behind him Song 11> 12 Groome 12> 13 Murphy 18>23 Bazardo moved to #19. My guess is Winckowski might crack the top 15 or 20 by the mid season rankings.
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2021 MLB draft
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Here are some mock drafts I found with dates published: MLB.com (4/25) 1. Leiter 2. Lawler 3. Rocker 4. Mayer 5. House 6. Davis 7. Frelick 8. Madden 20. McLain Prospectjournal.com (4/28) same top 7 as above Prospectslice.com (???) 1. Rocker 2. Lawler 3. Leiter 4. Mayer 5. Watson 6. Davis Offthebench.com (4/30) 1. Lawler 2. Leter 3. Rocker 4. Mayer 5. House 6. Jobe 7. Davis Bleacherreport.com (5/12) 1. Lawler 2. Leiter 3. Mayer 4. Rocker 5. House 6. Davis 7. Cowser 8. Madden 9. Jobe Mymlbdraft.com (5/17) 1. Leiter 2. Lawler 3. Rocker 4. Mayer 5. House 6. Davis 7. Madden -
It's hard to know how much Bloom values ERod. It's hard for anyone to place a value on him. We should know more by season's end. I hope he regains his form and knack for pitching just well enough to get the win for the team.
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I keep forgetting him. He might belong near the top of the helpful list.
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Don't forget Bazardo, Brasier & Sale and maybe Seabold, Feltman, Herrmann, Arauz and Ockimey/Casas.
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Worcester OPS Leaders (16+ ABs) 1.401 Santana 1.030 Duran 0.970 Wilson 0.859 Lopez 0.774 Arauz 0.768 Herrmann 0.727 Ockimey 0.689 Downs 0.572 Wong 0.564 Gettys 0.534 Munoz 0.280 Puello OPS Against (9+ IP) 0.392 Winckowski (Por) 0.483 Bello (Gre) 0.630 Politi (Por) 0.704 Weber (Wor)
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Sounds about right. So, the next choices are who to send down when Arroyo is ready and what do we do when Duran is deemed ready.
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I'm no longer hearing the clamor on extending ERod. Maybe he is still dealing with lingering COVID affects, but it looks like it was a good idea to wait. ERod (5-3 in his starts) 3.53 (team 4-0) in his first 4 starts. 6.00 (team 1-3) in his last 4 starts. Here's a breakdown of some other starter's numbers: Richards (4-4): 6.48 (1-3) first 4 2.16 (3-1) last 4 Eovaldi (5-4) 3.04 (3-1) first 4 5.81 (2-3) last 5 Pivetta (7-1) 3.48 (3-1) first 4 2.86 (4-0) last 4 Perez (4-4) 5.71 (3-1) first 4 1.61 (1-3) last 4 (freaky team record splits!) The team is 7-1 in Pivetta starts and 18-17 in all other starts. Pivetta has been a Godsend. Perez has deserved to be one.
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There may be one other thing keeping Duran in AAA: Danny Santana His opt out was extended into May. I'm not sure anyone knows the exact date. Santana is off to a red hot start: .467 OBP .846 Slg% 1.313 OPS 3 HRs in 26 ABs If he's ready, he's the next call up, and he can play OF, including CF, SS, 1B, 2B and 3B. People point to 2019 as an outlier, and it does look like one with 28 HRs in 474 ABs (.857 OPS) and 21 SBs, but he did have a decent rookie year back in 2014 with an .824 OPS and 20 SBs in 24 attempts. He has a career plus UZR/150 at 2B, 3B and LF, but is minus at CF, RF and 1B. He deserves a first look. When he's deemed ready, I see a Santana- Cordero swap of roles. When Duran is ready, I'd DFA Brice and call him up.
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If he played LF, he'd probably already be on the big club. Throwing an unready defender in CF can not only be bad for the club, but it could be bad for Jarren, too. I trust the Sox brass will know when he's ready, and I hope it's real soon.
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I thought even $18M/3 was too much. Beni was a hard player to project future performance levels. Maybe Bloom gets this one wrong, but certainly there was merit in thinking it was time to move on. He got 5 players for him- all younger and with way more years of team control. He saved a couple million, this year and maybe more, next year. Even if hindsight values this as a bad trade, we only really traded 2 years of control on Beni, and one of those was supposed to be during a "bridge" or rebuild season of 2021.
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We're saving those 6 or 7 for when we can use them.
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Who knows, maybe Winckowski will make the trade worth it, alone.
